Against The Spread Pool: Week 2

Footballguys.com Staff Pick NFL Games Against the Las Vegas Point Spread

by Jeff Pasquino, September 14 2017
Photo: Kirby Lee, USA TODAY Sports

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread.  Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (21) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line.  As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.   

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from this week.

Road Team: KC PIT ARI JAC BAL OAK ATL PHI NYJ IND SEA CAR NYG NO LAC      
Home Team: NE CLE DET HOU CIN TEN CHI WAS BUF LAR GB SF DAL MIN DEN      
Favorite: NE PIT ARI HOU CIN TEN ATL WAS BUF LAR GB CAR DAL MIN DEN      
Point Spread: -8.5 -9.5 -1.5 -5.5 -2.5 -1.5 -6.5 -0.5 -7.5 -3.5 -3.5 -5.5 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5      
Staffer Last Week's Picks MNF Last Week Year
Devin Knotts KC CLE DET JAC CIN OAK ATL WAS BUF LAR GB SF DAL MIN LAC 44 11 11
Mark Wimer KC CLE DET HOU CIN OAK ATL WAS BUF LAR GB CAR NYG MIN LAC 49 10 10
Andy Hicks KC CLE DET JAC CIN OAK ATL WAS NYJ LAR SEA CAR DAL MIN DEN 41 9 9
Bear Heiser KC PIT ARI HOU CIN TEN CHI WAS BUF LAR GB CAR DAL MIN LAC 48 9 9
Dave Larkin NE CLE ARI JAC BAL TEN ATL PHI BUF LAR GB SF DAL NO LAC 47 9 9
Jason Wood NE PIT ARI JAC BAL OAK ATL PHI BUF LAR SEA SF DAL MIN LAC 41 9 9
Keith Roberts KC CLE ARI JAC CIN TEN ATL PHI NYJ LAR GB CAR DAL MIN DEN 43 9 9
Phil Alexander NE CLE DET HOU CIN OAK CHI PHI NYJ LAR SEA SF DAL MIN LAC 45 9 9
Justin Bonnema NE CLE ARI HOU CIN OAK ATL PHI BUF LAR GB CAR DAL MIN DEN 45 9 9
Alessandro Miglio KC CLE DET HOU CIN OAK ATL WAS NYJ LAR SEA CAR DAL MIN DEN 44 8 8
John Mamula NE PIT ARI HOU CIN OAK ATL PHI BUF LAR GB CAR DAL MIN DEN 40 8 8
Justin Howe NE CLE DET JAC CIN TEN CHI PHI NYJ LAR SEA CAR DAL NO DEN 43 8 8
Matt Bitonti NE CLE ARI HOU BAL OAK ATL PHI NYJ LAR GB CAR NYG NO LAC 46 8 8
Steve Holloway NE CLE DET JAC BAL TEN ATL PHI BUF LAR GB SF NYG NO DEN 39 8 8
Andrew Garda NE PIT DET HOU CIN TEN ATL WAS BUF LAR GB CAR DAL MIN DEN 60 7 7
Chris Feery NE CLE ARI HOU CIN OAK CHI PHI NYJ LAR GB CAR NYG NO DEN 40 7 7
James Brimacombe NE PIT ARI JAC CIN OAK ATL PHI BUF LAR GB CAR NYG NO DEN 47 7 7
William Grant NE PIT ARI HOU CIN OAK ATL WAS BUF LAR GB CAR DAL MIN DEN 42 7 7
Jeff Pasquino NE PIT ARI HOU CIN TEN ATL PHI BUF LAR GB CAR NYG NO LAC 43 6 6
Danny Tuccitto KC CLE DET JAC CIN TEN CHI WAS NYJ IND SEA SF NYG NO LAC 49 6 6
Jeff Haseley NE PIT ARI JAC CIN TEN ATL WAS NYJ LAR GB CAR DAL MIN DEN 42 6 6
Aaron Rudnicki KC PIT ARI HOU CIN TEN ATL WAS NYJ LAR SEA SF NYG NO LAC 42 3 3

The first week is usually one of the hardest, but the staff overall had a good showing with nearly 55% correct (173-142, 54.9%).  Most had eight ore more correct picks, but Devin Knotts ran away with Week 1 with 11 of 15 correct selections.  Mark Wimer was one step behind with 10, while seven staffers had nine correct.  Several of us have to step up our game, including myself, but this is a marathon, not a sprint.  

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week.

Road Team: HOU PHI TEN MIN ARI NE CHI CLE BUF NYJ MIA DAL SF WAS GB DET  
Home Team: CIN KC JAC PIT IND NO TB BAL CAR OAK LAC DEN SEA LAR ATL NYG  
Favorite: CIN KC TEN PIT ARI NE TB BAL CAR OAK LAC DAL SEA LAR ATL NYG  
Point Spread: -4.5 -4.5 -1.5 -6.5 -7.5 -6.5 -6.5 -7.5 -7.5 -13.5 -4.5 -1.5 -12.5 -2.5 -2.5 -4.5  
Staffer The Picks MNF
Jeff Pasquino HOU PHI TEN MIN ARI NE TB CLE CAR OAK LAC DAL SEA LAR GB DET 47
Aaron Rudnicki HOU KC TEN MIN ARI NE TB CLE BUF OAK MIA DAL SEA LAR GB DET 44
Alessandro Miglio HOU KC JAC MIN IND NE CHI CLE BUF NYJ MIA DEN SEA LAR GB NYG 46
Andy Hicks CIN KC JAC MIN IND NO TB CLE CAR OAK MIA DEN SEA WAS GB DET 44
Chris Feery HOU PHI JAC MIN ARI NE TB CLE BUF OAK MIA DEN SEA LAR GB NYG 41
Danny Tuccitto CIN KC JAC MIN IND NO TB BAL CAR OAK MIA DEN SEA LAR GB DET 49
Dave Larkin CIN PHI TEN MIN IND NO TB BAL BUF OAK LAC DEN SF LAR GB DET 38
Devin Knotts CIN PHI TEN PIT IND NE TB CLE CAR OAK MIA DAL SF LAR GB DET 46
James Brimacombe HOU PHI JAC MIN ARI NO CHI CLE CAR OAK MIA DEN SEA WAS GB DET 51
Jason Wood CIN PHI TEN MIN ARI NE TB CLE BUF OAK LAC DAL SF LAR GB NYG 43
Jeff Haseley CIN KC JAC MIN IND NE TB BAL CAR OAK MIA DAL SEA LAR ATL NYG 49
John Mamula HOU KC TEN PIT ARI NE TB BAL CAR OAK LAC DEN SEA LAR GB NYG 45
Justin Bonnema CIN KC TEN MIN ARI NO TB CLE BUF OAK LAC DEN SEA WAS GB DET 48
Justin Howe CIN KC TEN MIN ARI NO CHI CLE CAR OAK LAC DAL SEA LAR ATL DET 42
Keith Roberts HOU KC TEN MIN ARI NE CHI BAL BUF OAK LAC DAL SEA LAR GB NYG 47
Matt Bitonti HOU PHI JAC PIT ARI NE TB CLE BUF OAK LAC DAL SF WAS ATL NYG 45
Phil Alexander CIN KC TEN MIN IND NE CHI BAL CAR NYJ MIA DAL SEA WAS GB DET 47
Steven Holloway HOU PHI TEN MIN IND NE TB BAL CAR OAK LAC DEN SF LAR GB DET 45

CONSENSUS WINNERS

Unfortunately a few staffers are a bit behind schedule this week (cracking the whip as I write this), but I do have 18 sets of selections already for Week 2, so let's analyze what we have for this week.  Despite being a big favorite (-12.5), Oakland received 16 of 18 votes to trounce the Jets.  Two road underdogs came in right behind with 15 selections with the Packers (at Atlanta) and Minnesota (at Pittsburgh) both catching the eye of most of the staff.  After that, things got a bit tighter.  Three teams were chosen 13 of 18 times, with another big home favorite (Seattle) leading the way.  Tampa Bay in their first game at home against the Bears also received 13 votes, as did the Rams at home against Washington.  New England took 12 of 18 votes as they visit the Saints with an angry Tom Brady and Brandin Cooks returning to New Orleans.  The rest of the games were rather tight calls, with just two underdogs being slightly favored as both Cleveland (at Baltimore) and Detroit (at New York Giants) took 11 of 18 selections.  Once again, it should be very interesting to see how it plays out. 

ODDS AND ENDS

It's only the second week of the season, and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding.  That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com

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