Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (23) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team: | CAR | TB | SD | CIN | CLE | GB | CHI | OAK | BUF | MIN | MIA | DET | NYG | NE | PIT | LA | |||
Home Team: | DEN | ATL | KC | NYJ | PHI | JAX | HOU | NO | BAL | TEN | SEA | INDY | DAL | AZ | WASH | SF | |||
Favorite: | CAR | ATL | KC | CIN | PHI | GB | HOU | NO | BAL | MIN | SEA | INDY | DAL | AZ | PIT | LA | |||
Point Spread: | -3.5 | -3.5 | -7.5 | -2.5 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -6.5 | -0.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -10.5 | -3.5 | -0.5 | -6.5 | -3.5 | -2.5 | |||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | LW | YtD | |||||||||||||||
Jason Wood | CAR | TB | KC | NYJ | PHI | GB | HOU | OAK | BUF | TEN | MIA | DET | NYG | NE | WASH | SF | 34 | 10 | 10 |
Dave Larkin | DEN | ATL | SD | CIN | PHI | GB | HOU | NO | BAL | MIN | MIA | DET | DAL | NE | WASH | SF | 38 | 10 | 10 |
Matt Bitonti | DEN | TB | KC | NYJ | PHI | GB | HOU | OAK | BAL | TEN | MIA | INDY | NYG | AZ | PIT | SF | 38 | 10 | 10 |
Justin Howe | DEN | TB | SD | CIN | CLE | JAX | CHI | NO | BUF | MIN | MIA | DET | NYG | NE | WASH | SF | 43 | 10 | 10 |
Jeff Pasquino | CAR | ATL | KC | NYJ | PHI | JAX | HOU | OAK | BAL | MIN | SEA | INDY | NYG | AZ | PIT | LA | 39 | 9 | 9 |
Aaron Rudnicki | CAR | TB | SD | NYJ | CLE | GB | HOU | NO | BAL | TEN | MIA | DET | NYG | NE | WASH | LA | 40 | 9 | 9 |
Clayton Gray | DEN | TB | KC | NYJ | CLE | GB | HOU | NO | BUF | MIN | MIA | DET | NYG | NE | WASH | LA | 41 | 9 | 9 |
Danny Tuccitto | DEN | TB | SD | CIN | CLE | JAX | HOU | NO | BAL | MIN | MIA | DET | DAL | AZ | WASH | LA | 49 | 9 | 9 |
Andy Hicks | DEN | TB | SD | NYJ | CLE | JAX | HOU | NO | BAL | TEN | SEA | INDY | DAL | AZ | WASH | SF | 35 | 8 | 8 |
Jeff Haseley | DEN | ATL | SD | NYJ | CLE | GB | HOU | NO | BAL | TEN | SEA | DET | DAL | NE | WASH | SF | 42 | 8 | 8 |
John Mamula | CAR | ATL | SD | NYJ | PHI | GB | HOU | OAK | BUF | MIN | SEA | INDY | DAL | NE | PIT | LA | 27 | 8 | 8 |
Keith Roberts | DEN | TB | KC | NYJ | CLE | GB | HOU | NO | BAL | TEN | SEA | INDY | NYG | NE | PIT | LA | 40 | 8 | 8 |
Mark Wimer | CAR | TB | KC | NYJ | CLE | GB | HOU | OAK | BUF | TEN | MIA | DET | NYG | AZ | PIT | LA | 49 | 8 | 8 |
Phil Alexander | DEN | TB | SD | CIN | PHI | GB | CHI | NO | BAL | TEN | SEA | DET | NYG | NE | WASH | LA | 27 | 8 | 8 |
Alessandro Miglio | DEN | ATL | SD | CIN | PHI | GB | HOU | NO | BAL | TEN | MIA | INDY | DAL | NE | WASH | LA | 45 | 7 | 7 |
Chris Kuczynski | CAR | TB | KC | CIN | CLE | GB | CHI | OAK | BAL | MIN | MIA | INDY | NYG | AZ | PIT | LA | 38 | 7 | 7 |
Devin Knotts | CAR | ATL | KC | NYJ | PHI | GB | HOU | NO | BUF | TEN | MIA | DET | NYG | AZ | WASH | SF | 42 | 7 | 7 |
Andrew Garda | CAR | ATL | KC | CIN | PHI | GB | HOU | NO | BAL | MIN | SEA | INDY | NYG | AZ | PIT | LA | 40 | 6 | 6 |
Chris Feery | DEN | ATL | KC | NYJ | CLE | JAX | CHI | OAK | BUF | TEN | SEA | INDY | NYG | NE | WASH | LA | 45 | 6 | 6 |
James Brimacombe | CAR | TB | SD | CIN | CLE | GB | HOU | NO | BUF | MIN | MIA | INDY | NYG | AZ | WASH | LA | 44 | 6 | 6 |
William Grant | CAR | ATL | SD | CIN | PHI | GB | HOU | NO | BAL | TEN | SEA | INDY | NYG | AZ | PIT | LA | 48 | 6 | 6 |
Bear Heiser | CAR | TB | SD | CIN | PHI | GB | CHI | NO | BUF | MIN | SEA | INDY | DAL | AZ | PIT | LA | 34 | 5 | 5 |
Justin Bonnema | CAR | ATL | SD | CIN | CLE | GB | CHI | NO | BUF | TEN | SEA | INDY | DAL | AZ | WASH | LA | 37 | 1 | 1 |
Four of the staff tied atop the standings with 10 correct picks on a very difficult Week 1. Justin Howe, Matt Bitonti and Dave Larkin lost on the tiebreaker for total points, as their total points were low (two 38s and a 43) but not low enough. Jason Wood takes home the Week 1 title with 10 wins and just 34 total points - which was still too high, but close enough to win the week. Four staffers just missed on the fun with nine correct picks while six more had a .500 week by going 8-8. Just to prove how difficult this really is, 9 of the 23 fell below 50% for the week, only getting seven or fewer games right - showing that this really is much harder than it looks. A particular award goes to James Brimacombe, who takes the George Costanza Award for getting just one game right. It was a tough week with upsets for Green Bay (18 wrong calls in Week 1) along with New Orleans (16) and Los Angeles (16). Let's see what we learned after one week.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team: | NYJ | BAL | MIA | DAL | TEN | KC | SF | CIN | NO | TB | SEA | ATL | JAX | INDY | GB | PHI | |
Home Team: | BUF | CLE | NE | WASH | DET | HOU | CAR | PIT | NYG | AZ | LA | OAK | SD | DEN | MIN | CHI | |
Favorite: | BUF | BAL | NE | WASH | DET | HOU | CAR | PIT | NYG | AZ | SEA | OAK | SD | DEN | GB | CHI | |
Point Spread: | -0.5 | -6.5 | -6.5 | -3.5 | -5.5 | -1.5 | -13.5 | -3.5 | -4.5 | -6.5 | -3.5 | -4.5 | -2.5 | -5.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | |
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | |||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | NYJ | BAL | NE | DAL | DET | HOU | CAR | PIT | NYG | AZ | SEA | ATL | JAX | DEN | GB | CHI | 43 |
Aaron Rudnicki | BUF | BAL | NE | DAL | TEN | KC | CAR | CIN | NO | AZ | SEA | OAK | JAX | INDY | GB | CHI | 44 |
Alessandro Miglio | BUF | CLE | MIA | DAL | DET | HOU | SF | PIT | NO | TB | SEA | OAK | SD | INDY | GB | CHI | 46 |
Andrew Garda | NYJ | BAL | NE | DAL | DET | HOU | SF | PIT | NYG | TB | SEA | OAK | JAX | DEN | GB | PHI | 45 |
Andy Hicks | BUF | BAL | NE | WASH | TEN | HOU | CAR | PIT | NYG | AZ | LA | OAK | SD | DEN | MIN | CHI | 41 |
Bear Heiser | NYJ | CLE | NE | DAL | DET | KC | SF | PIT | NO | TB | SEA | OAK | JAX | DEN | GB | CHI | 42 |
Chris Feery | NYJ | CLE | NE | DAL | TEN | KC | SF | PIT | NO | AZ | SEA | OAK | JAX | DEN | GB | CHI | 42 |
Chris Kuczynski | NYJ | BAL | NE | DAL | DET | KC | SF | PIT | NO | AZ | SEA | OAK | JAX | DEN | GB | PHI | 46 |
Clayton Gray | NYJ | CLE | NE | DAL | DET | HOU | CAR | CIN | NYG | AZ | LA | OAK | JAX | DEN | GB | CHI | 45 |
Danny Tuccitto | NYJ | BAL | NE | DAL | DET | HOU | CAR | CIN | NO | AZ | SEA | ATL | SD | DEN | GB | CHI | 49 |
Dave Larkin | NYJ | CLE | NE | DAL | TEN | HOU | SF | CIN | NYG | AZ | SEA | OAK | JAX | DEN | GB | CHI | 47 |
Devin Knotts | BUF | CLE | MIA | WASH | DET | KC | SF | PIT | NYG | AZ | SEA | OAK | JAX | INDY | GB | PHI | 46 |
James Brimacombe | NYJ | BAL | MIA | DAL | TEN | HOU | CAR | CIN | NO | AZ | SEA | OAK | JAX | INDY | GB | PHI | 45 |
Jason Wood | NYJ | BAL | MIA | WASH | TEN | HOU | CAR | CIN | NO | TB | SEA | OAK | JAX | INDY | GB | PHI | 46 |
Jeff Haseley | NYJ | CLE | NE | DAL | DET | KC | SF | PIT | NO | AZ | SEA | OAK | JAX | INDY | GB | CHI | 43 |
John Mamula | NYJ | CLE | MIA | DAL | TEN | HOU | CAR | PIT | NYG | AZ | SEA | ATL | SD | INDY | GB | CHI | 42 |
Justin Bonnema | NYJ | CLE | MIA | DAL | DET | HOU | CAR | PIT | NO | AZ | LA | ATL | JAX | INDY | GB | CHI | 48 |
Justin Howe | BUF | CLE | MIA | DAL | DET | HOU | SF | CIN | NO | TB | LA | ATL | JAX | INDY | GB | PHI | 42 |
Keith Roberts | NYJ | BAL | NE | WASH | DET | KC | CAR | PIT | NYG | AZ | LA | OAK | JAX | DEN | GB | CHI | 40 |
Mark Wimer | NYJ | BAL | NE | WASH | DET | HOU | SF | PIT | NYG | AZ | SEA | OAK | JAX | DEN | GB | PHI | 52 |
Matt Bitonti | NYJ | BAL | MIA | DAL | DET | KC | SF | CIN | NO | TB | SEA | OAK | JAX | INDY | GB | CHI | 48 |
Phil Alexander | BUF | BAL | NE | WASH | TEN | HOU | SF | CIN | NYG | AZ | SEA | ATL | JAX | DEN | GB | CHI | 33 |
William Grant | NYJ | BAL | NE | DAL | DET | HOU | CAR | CIN | NO | AZ | SEA | OAK | JAX | DEN | GB | PHI | 41 |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
With one week behind us, we are getting closer to a collective viewpoint of who are the best teams (and the worst). There are a lot more consensus picks here in Week 2, as we start to get some sort of better understanding of who are the dominant teams – or who they could be. No team was picked unanimously, but Green Bay was very close with only Andy Hicks going out on the limb with Minnesota as a home underdog. That means over 95% (22 of 23) of the staff is on the Packers this week. The two next-most popular calls were Jacksonville as a road underdog in San Diego with 19 of 23 selections, while Seattle came in third with 18 picks as they visit Los Angeles. Four teams tied for fourth with 17 picks (Arizona, Oakland, Dallas and the Jets) including two underdogs in the Cowboys and the Jets. Four other teams nabbed 15 of 23 picks (New England, Detroit, Houston and Chicago). Las Vegas is much happier with five close call picks as five games are nearly dead even (Baltimore-Cleveland, Cincinnati-Pittsburgh, New Orleans - New York Giants, Indianapolis-Houston and finally San Francisco-Carolina). It should be very interesting to see how it plays out.
ODDS AND ENDS
It's still quite early in the season, and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.