Calvin Johnson is unquestionably one fo the best wide receivers in the NFL and in fantasy football. Johnson can beat double teams and rack up 1,500 yards receiving and double-digit touchdowns with relative ease. With Matthew Stafford continuing to get better each season, Detroit's fast break passing attack revolves around getting the ball in Johnson's hands game after game. Johnson had 84 catches, 1,492 yards receiving and 12 touchdowns in 2013, even with two missed games, then came right back last year with 71 catches, 1,077 yards and eight scores in 13 contests. So there is some history here to consider that Johnson could miss some games this season. So let's ask the not-so-hypothetical question: What would happen if Johnson were to get hurt and go down with a major injury, sidelining himself for the rest of the season?
BUY
Golden Tate, WR – Tate just signed with Detroit last season, but he stepped up and in last year as a solid WR2 with upside for the Lions. Tate actually led Detroit last year with 142 targets resulting in impressive numbers (99-1,331-4). If Calvin Johnson is out for the year, Tate immediately would jump up to 8-10 targets a game without question. The defenses would focus on Tate more, but he has the ability to get open, and more targets lead to more chances, which would lead to more stats.
Eric Ebron, TE – Eric Ebron struggled in his rookie season, catching only 25 passes for 248 yards and a single touchdown. Do not write him off just yet though, as rookies at the tight end position can take a long time to get used to NFL passing games, defenses and blocking assignments. Ebron has now had a full year to get ready for his second eason, and Detroit has utilized the tight end quite a bit in their recent history (see Brandon Pettigrew's 100+ targets in 2010, 2011 and 2012). If Johnson is sidelined for an extended period of time, the Lions would get all the playmakers that they could onto the field and likely use Ebron as a virtual second wide receiver, making him the best buy candidate overall for Detroit.
Joique Bell, RB – With no game breaker now at wide receiver, Detroit is likely to get both Ameer Abdullah and Joique Bell on the field to put some speedy receivers into the offense. Even if both start the play in the backfield, one or both could motion outside to become a strong target for Matthew Stafford.
HOLD
Ameer Abdullah, RB – Abdullah is going to see more opportunities without Calvin Johnson on the field, but Detroit would be wise to still limit his touches and exposure to injury by using additional targets in the offense. Rookies can wear down quickly in their first season, so keeping Adbullah's touches in check and adding additional players around him to support both Abdullah and Stafford seems like the most likely approach that the Lions would take.
SELL
Matthew Stafford, QB – Even if Stafford has effective running backs and tight ends, the numbers that Calvin Johnson can put up every season are very hard to replace. Detroit would lean a little more on running the ball and trying to move the chains with a balanced attack, which is a downgrade for the passing game and Stafford.
ADD
Theo Riddick, RB – There has been buzz about Theo Riddick in the past, but there is just not room to get him on the field with Abdullah and Bell ahead of him on the depth chart. If Johnson gets sidelined, the Lions could get more creative to get another playmaker like Riddick more snaps.
Corey Fuller, WR – It would definitely make sense that a wide receiver would make the "add" list if Johnson were to be injured, but the list is pretty short. Fuller is my favorite option to get the starting nod should Johnson get hurt, as his size (6'2", 204) and speed could make him a decent WR2 to Tate with Johnson out. Just temper expectations as Fuller is nothing close to Johnson in the skill department.
Brandon Pettigrew, TE – Pettigrew will be on the field a lot as the blocking tight end, but his targets and involvement in the passing game as a receiver would likely go up if Johnson goes down. Pettigrew topped 100 targets for three seasons in 2010 to 2012, but his age is catching up with him very quickly.
Joseph Fauria, TE – Joseph Fauria would be an interesting pickup, as he helped the Lions significantly in the Red Zone in 2013 with seven touchdown receptions despite just 18 catches on 30 targets. He was much quieter last year (6-74-1 on 12 targets) but that could all change if Johnson were sidelined. He could be a very smart pickup that other fantasy owners might not consider.
DROP
None. The Lions have enough firepower behind Stafford to move the ball with several solid receiving running backs and tight ends, even if they are not game breakers or field stretchers.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
