Welcome to the 2016 version of The Daily Grind, a look at Daily Fantasy Football from several vantage points. Together we will look at many different topics this season – from managing expectations and bankroll to what Footballguys has in store for 2016 and how to best use what this site has to offer to maximize both your enjoyment and your bankroll by Super Bowl LI. So let’s jump right in with some thoughts on both expectations for playing this year and also a first take at a guided tour for Footballguys’ DFS coverage this season:
Weeks with Uncertainty – Remaining Flexible
You don’t often hear experts say that they are unsure of what to do, but that is what I am hearing a lot this week in NFL DFS. I find myself in that category this week of scratching my head quite often, wondering what is the right play. With big contests at stake this week and next in the industry (DraftKings’ Fantasy Football World Championship (the DFFC) is this Sunday, while FanDuel’s World Fantasy Football Championship (the WFFC) is next Sunday), pricing is rather tight. Quite often this season, a “free square” or two has emerged long before Thursday Night Football, along with a few must plays. That is not the case this week, and it will also probably be the same story for Week 15. The strong players are increasing in cost, and value plays are drying up.
So what do we do?
We have to take a step back, breathe a few deep breaths, and take a page from Aaron Rodgers and relax. R-E-L-A-X. Start with the basics, beginning with our normal process. I talked about that a few weeks back right here in The Daily Grind, but here’s a quick summary once again:
- Define your criteria
- Do your research
- Compare your work and refine your list
- Choose your contests and construct your lineups
- Looking back (reviewing your work and results)
Again, more details on each step is in the Week 9 version of The Daily Grind, but the point here is to have a process and stick to it – and doing these first four steps (Step 5 comes after the games are over) prior to early Sunday gets us to a foundation. The homework gives us a list of players to consider for using each week. Then we can react and adjust on Sunday morning (or even Saturday, if we are ahead of schedule) to the latest and greatest news that comes out late in the week. So stick to your normal routine as much as you can. Read your favorite Footballguys’ DFS articles (and some great ones are pointed out in our DFS Roundtable this week). Play around with the Interactive Value Calculators to build several lineups. Watch our two video shows – the Power Grid and the Footballguys’ and Rotogrinders Daily Fantasy Hour. Build some lineups and be ready for Sunday, then go take a break. Enjoy some time unplugging. Then get ready for Sunday and the latest news, but have that work in ahead of time. Footballguys provides a ton of updates all the way up to kickoff, including not just the actives/inactives reports but also who did or did not travel for the game. Being able to start from the DFS baseline from our routine and adjust is almost mandatory for having a good DFS week. Do your process work up front and have an idea of what to change if things are suddenly different an hour before the games start. Not doing your work ahead of time will leave you in a total panic, and that is not a recipe for success, in DFS or anything else.
LAST MINUTE CHANGES
Quite often, our first instincts are right, but it is also human nature to second guess, wonder and worry if our initial choices are correct. That factors in greatly when we get that last minute news on Sunday and have to decide if we are going to make a change to our lineups. It can be nerve-wracking, to say the least.
To help cut through the noise, I wanted to provide some of what I like to look for (and many other experienced DFS players look at) when it comes to new information. Deciding what is important and what is just noise is huge, so consider the following every Sunday morning before lineups lock:
- Las Vegas – We rely on the sportsbooks for a reason. They have some of the best minds and information gathering sources around. Huge money is at stake, so watching what these guys do can tell us a lot. If over/unders and game lines start to change (such as a game total going down 2-3 points) on Sunday, we have to take note. Something is up, either with an injury or weather. If you can’t find the reason, well, maybe just taking Vegas at face value as having more information than you do is not a bad call.
- Weather reports – sometimes the weather is not adequately reflected by Las Vegas, or it was already priced in to the lines long before Sunday. Checking NflWeather.com or another solid source for local weather impacts will definitely help. Strong winds are the worst for both passing and kicking, so take that under advisement. Cold weather, rain and snow can have an impact, but wind is the worst of all.
- Warmups and inactives – Of course these are important, but we should have a pretty good idea of who should be ready to go and who is going to be out because the NFL and other info sources are so well connected these days. That said, you better make sure nothing is out of the ordinary right before the games start.
Those are the Top 3 items to check, and I like to stick to just those three factors in a “Keep it simple, stupid” kind of way. If you have all your lineups set in your mind before Sunday morning (or better yet, entered into the contests you wanted to play), all you need to do now is check the above information and adjust. That can make Sunday mornings a whole lot more peaceful.
DECEMBER HOLIDAYS
I know I have been talking about having a DFS routine and making adjustments to your rosters at the last minute, but sometimes there are outside factors beyond our control that impact the amount of time that we can spend on DFS in a given week. As any fantasy football player knows, the holidays can really put a crimp in your fantasy style over the final few weeks of the NFL regular season. This is why it is important to have a routine and plan out your time – or even to see if you are going to have enough time to play a given NFL weekend or not. Holiday parties, family events, performances of your children all demand your time between Thanksgiving and New Year’s Day. These are important events that you really do not want to miss if at all possible, so work on keeping that balance between fantasy and real life as much as possible. Not only will your bankroll thank you, but so will the important people in your life.
Best of luck with DFS this week, and Happy Holidays.
A GUIDED TOUR TO FOOTBALLGUYS’ DFS 2016 COVERAGE (FINAL EDITION)
Over the past three weeks I have provided you a guided tour to all the DFS coverage Footballguys is providing this season. Here at Footballguys, we have dedicated a good amount of the staff and resources to give you the best DFS content possible, and the intent of this tour was to highlight as much of the content and how to use it as possible. As a courtesy to you the reader each week, I will leave this placeholder so you can find the tour in the future and can find the articles and tools you use the most. Just remember to check the week number in the link, as it will take you to Week 3 content.
Here is the final version of the tour:
Good luck to you in all of your contests!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.