Photo: Brian Spurlock, USA Today Sports

Welcome to the 2016 version of The Daily Grind, a look at Daily Fantasy Football from several vantage points.  Together we will look at many different topics this season – from managing expectations and bankroll to what Footballguys has in store for 2016 and how to best use what this site has to offer to maximize both your enjoyment and your bankroll by Super Bowl LI.  So let’s jump right in with some thoughts on both expectations for playing this year and also a first take at a guided tour for Footballguys’ DFS coverage this season: 

Trust Your Process

When it comes to playing DFS, we all just want to jump right in and starting winning contests and money.  After all, isn’t that one of the appealing factors of DFS?  Using your sports knowledge, you can beat the competition and win prizes.  The attraction of that is clear, but the execution of winning is the true devil in the details.

So how do we win?  That’s the key question, and the answer is the Holy Grail in all of DFS.  If there was a magic elixir that gave you all the answers as to who to play each week – sort of like Biff’s Sports Almanac – then all DFS problems would be solved.  Just take the answers and plug them in and wash the money roll in.  Unfortunately that Rosetta Stone does not exist (or at least I have not found it yet), so what are we to do?

Have a process.

By no means is it sexy to say that you “have a process” for finding your DFS players and lineups every week.  That’s okay – our goal here is to work on finding the players and understanding how to take the list of hundreds of possible NFL players to use every week and reduce that down to a list of guys that is both reasonable and makes sense.  Having a process to do this task is certainly better than not having one at all, which means you are picking players at random.    

Now I can tell you that my process is not 100% consistent every week, but there are elements and tools that I use practically every week as part of my method.  Some weeks I have more time than others, so if I am short on time I may have to cut out a few steps, but that often makes me feel like I am underprepared and I start to worry.  After a while, if you continue to work on and refine your own process, you will get a better understanding of what steps are the most important and also which tools help you the most. 

Here’s an example – I sometimes like to look at which teams are doing poorly against a particular position on defense.  This season, Detroit has been abysmal against tight ends, and now everyone has been beating that drum all year – which means that every competent tight end that plays the Lions is going to be a cash game option and used quite a bit each week (it is Kyle Rudolph this week, in case you were wondering).  That’s a relatively easy example.  But if you dig a little further, you would also notice that both Cleveland (2^nd) and Atlanta (3^rd) are also bad against tight ends, which would have led you to rostering Cameron Brate on Thursday Night Football (he did score, and almost had another) and also would point you towards Jason Witten for Sunday as a lesser-owned GPP option.

So, how can I help you to build your own process?  That’s a tough one, because I have no idea how much time you have each week or how you like to do your own research, but I will say that to have the most success, you will need to do some of it on your own.  The good news is that Footballguys has a ton of articles and tools to help you to do all of it, but I am also smart enough – as are you – to know that there are tools beyond just Footballguys that are also worthwhile and are helpful.  In an ideal world, Footballguys would have every tool imaginable under one roof and you would never have to go anywhere else, but I think it is smart to get the opinions of other DFS outlets if only to get the pulse of what other DFS players may be reading.  If it is Rotogrinders, Pro Football Focus, Rotoworld, Yahoo, CBS, ESPN – whatever it is – there is a value to it, if only to provide a counterpoint or alternative perspective to the Footballguys’ outlook.  

Moving back to our goal of defining a process for DFS -  I think the best way for me to outline a process each week would be to put forth a few categories and steps that you should work through each week.  The good news is that the NFL has a long cycle between contests, so you will have 4-5 days to get ready for each weekend of action.  That luxury does not exist in other sports, so take advantage of that time and do a little more each day to refine your list of players.

Here is how I would begin:

Step 1 – Define your criteria

The first step to finding players that you want is to better define the type of player that you are looking for when it comes to your DFS lineup for the week.  Are you looking for NFL players that will be good options for cash games, or are you looking for guys that might explode out of nowhere and be tournament options?  Maybe it is some of both, but if you do not have some criteria to start filtering out some players, your list is going to be far too long.  Some example criteria would be to look for players that had six or more targets in the passing game last week, which would cut out at least half – if not more – of the wide receivers from the prior set of games.  Over time, you will be able to refine your criteria for finding players, and then you can apply it later to player projections that you either build up yourself or against those you use from Footballguys or elsewhere.

Step 2 – Do your research

This step is applying Step #1.  Once you have the criteria you are looking for (running backs with 15+ touches, receivers with 4+ catches, quarterbacks who threw at least 30 times, etc.) you can apply it to the available information from the previous sets of games, projections for the week and also for historical matchups.  The last one comes in handy for divisional rivals, where two teams square off twice a year every year.  Knowing the tendencies in those matchups can significantly help to decide who will excel or who will fall short of expectations.  Does Joe Flacco do well against Pittsburgh?  What about Philip Rivers against Denver?  Trends can help here.

Step 3 – Compare your work and refine your list

After you have done your work – and I have to emphasize it – YOUR WORK – then you can start to compare notes.  If you have fellow DFS players you like to bounce thoughts off of, great – do that.  Look at Footballguys’ articles, projections, IVCs and other tools to see how your research looks against the numbers you find there.  Look at other sites to see who are the hot picks or not so hot picks for the week.  Doing this over time will lead two several things.  First, some of it will be affirmation of your own work, which is great.  Knowing that your own research led to similar conclusions is a positive.  The more interesting findings come when you find a diamond in the rough that others do not seem to agree on, and that leads to one of two choices – are you correct, or did you miss something?  Sometimes it is the latter, and you just scratch that player off and learn from it, possibly refining your process for next time – but sometimes it is the former.  Maybe you do have some information that others do not.  If you trust your work and have a player that other pundits and sites are overlooking, you could be on your way to a very successful week.

Step 4 – Choose your contests and construct your lineups

This should be relatively straightforward every week, but sometimes we come across a slate of games that makes us feel uneasy.  Now, we have done all of this research and put the time in, and we want to be rewarded for that effort.  I get that, and I have been there many times.  But the truth is, sometimes it is better to just change the way you approach and play that week instead of not playing at all.  If you hate that everyone seems to be on the same group of players for cash games, mix it up and play more tournaments.  Maybe it is best to fade a few highly owned players and use those hidden gems you found in those GPPs that week, or maybe you want to swim against the current a little and play some cash games with different players, but not at as high of a volume as normal.  That’s okay too.  The good news is that you have a list of players that you can build several lineups around and feel good about the players from which you are choosing.  This comes in very handy when you play on multiple sites and pricing allows for some players to be used on one site versus another.

Step 5 – Looking Back

I know it hurts sometimes, but we learn the most when we lose.  What was the wrong call? Was it really a wrong call, or did variance just bite us?  Did we miss a player or two for the week?  Did we forget about a particular matchup and forget to at least have one lineup that covered that game or stack?  It is also important to review winning lineups as well, and to see what went right so you can do it again.  Lastly, maybe you chose the wrong contest for that lineup.  Should it have been GPP only, or cash only, or a mix?  Looking at your rosters (or having a friend or two look at them) might tell you if you are more inclined to play cash or tournaments.  Some of us are better at seeing those players that have a very high floor and some upside, which is great for cash – but some are better at seeing stacks that work and great potential scores if everything goes the right way, which screams “GPP”.  Take some time to look back each week at your results – good or bad – and learn from them.

Overall and without question, it is important to have a process in finding your players each and every week.  Shortcuts can be taken, but you should know what elements of your process you are cutting out each week so that you can make informed decisions on what you are including and excluding each time when you find your players.  It’s way better than just reading one article and making some picks and just hoping for the best.

Good luck this week!

So nice, I included this twice.... 

A DFS For All Seasons

I first wrote about playing DFS in other sports last year, but given that it is late October again and we have not just one, or two, or three but four major sports now in play, I think it is worth noting once again that DFS is not just for football.  DFS basketball continues to grow, and it is pushing for the top spot in daily sports.  If football is the #1 sport in the U.S., why is it basketball is vying for the top spot in DFS?  The key is the first word in that acronym – DAILY.  Basketball, along with hockey and, prior to the playoffs, baseball are all truly daily sports.   Want to play on a Tuesday, Wednesday or Friday?  You certainly can with these other major sports.  That’s the big difference.  If you enjoy the puzzle of putting together winning lineups in a salary cap format, I strongly suggest that you try the NBA, and take a long, hard look at our debut of Hoopsguys.com where we are branching out to DFS basketball coverage.  Slates run every day of the week until almost June, so jump right in and enjoy all the fun and action!

A GUIDED TOUR TO FOOTBALLGUYS’ DFS 2016 COVERAGE (FINAL EDITION)

Over the past three weeks I have provided you a guided tour to all the DFS coverage Footballguys is providing this season. Here at Footballguys, we have dedicated a good amount of the staff and resources to give you the best DFS content possible, and the intent of this tour was to highlight as much of the content and how to use it as possible.  As a courtesy to you the reader each week, I will leave this placeholder so you can find the tour in the future and can find the articles and tools you use the most.  Just remember to check the week number in the link, as it will take you to Week 3 content.  

Here is the final version of the tour:

Week 3 Daily Grind DFS Tour

Good luck to you in all of your contests!

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

Follow @JeffPasquino