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Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Last comment for now – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Adrian Peterson’s understudy, get him now before Peterson pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 3 Comment: Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Week 4 Comment: Bye weeks are starting now, so teams are going to be more active on the waiver wire, especially with New England off in Week 4. Kickers and defenses will be added and dropped, so start looking ahead and you’re your lineups for the weeks where you will be short a starter or two. Depth is going to play a bigger part in the next several weeks, so do not be afraid to add players for a rainy day now instead of later.
Week 5 Comment: Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, New England and Tennessee were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 Comment: The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Week 7 Comment: Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up. Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter. Add players and handcuffs accordingly.
Week 8 Comment: This week is a make or break waiver wire week to me. Pick up the wrong guys and you will pay dearly for it. Waiver wire money will cost you, as will the wasted roster spot, but also the missed chance to get someone else. I see lots of Fools' Gold this week, so read on and choose wisely.
Running behind this week, so here are some early entries if you need to bid in the next few hours. Commentary to be added late Tuesday.
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- Stefon Diggs, WR, Vikings ($226): The rookie from Maryland is finally getting a decent shot to play, and he has really stepped up for Minnesota. Diggs scored his first NFL touchdown in Week 7 and I do not think it will be his last this year.
- Darren McFadden, RB, Cowboys ($203): Could Dallas have finally found a feature tailback? More importantly, can Darren McFadden stay healthy? Time will tell, but If McFadden starts to get 20+ touches behind that offensive line, he becomes a RB2 with RB1 upside.
- Brandon LaFell, WR, Patriots ($201): This is going to be the last time you can get LaFell for a discount. He had the dropsies last week in his first game back from IR, catching just two of his eight targets. Do not let that fool you – Tom Brady is going to throw him the ball, especially down the field, and LaFell will be productive. Pick him up now.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Vikings ($120): With Stefon Diggs stepping up as a receiver, up goes his quarterback’s fantasy value. Bridgewater offers QB1 value in good matchups such as this week against the Bears.
- Ryan Mathews, RB, Eagles ($120): Philadelphia cycles their running backs based on running backs’ coach Duce Staley’s opinion of who will be most effective at each given stage of the game. That means if Ryan Mathews is playing well, he is going to get his chances and touches. With Philadelphia playing one of the fastest offenses in the league, Mathews and DeMarco Murray have plenty of chances each to produce. The Eagles want to run the ball first and foremost, and two productive backs will be their recipe to stay in the NFC East the rest of the season.
- Ted Ginn Jr, WR, Panthers ($119): It looks like Ted Ginn Jr is comfortable again as the lead receiver for Carolina. Cam Newton is playing at a high level and he desperately needed a second receiver to offset all the targets going to TE Greg Olsen. Ginn looks to be that guy, and he offers WR3 value with some upside.
- Nate Washington, WR, Texans ($118): Forget picking up a back for the Texans with Foster out. That’s Fool’s Gold. With Washington back after missing three weeks and not much value in Chris Polk or Alfred Blue, I see Washington with 8-10 targets a week with WR2 value going forwards.
- Marvin Jones, WR, Bengals ($117): Picking up a player off a bye week is a good move as most people forget about these guys. Jones is producing as the WR2 for Cincinnati, so if you need a WR3 or flex spot or even only depth at wide receiver, snap him up.
- Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks ($116): Lockett found the end zone for the first time as a receiver for Seattle last week but the bigger part of the story is that the rookie wideout was the leading receiver for the Seahawks (5-79-1). Lockett returns kicks and takes the occasional handoff, but if he starts to be in the lineup as a wide receiver on a regular basis he offers a very high ceiling going forward.
- Derek Carr, QB, Raiders ($115): Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper are both putting up solid numbers for Derek Carr, and that makes Carr a solid QB1 contender in good matchups. The Jets are a rough game this week, but it does get easier after Halloween weekend.
- Brian Hoyer, QB, Texans ($115): Houston just lost Arian Foster, and that is going to steer a lot of people towards picking up a back for the Texans. Bad move. Chris Polk and Alfred Blue will split time in the Texans’ backfield, but neither will give you enough production on a consistent basis to be worth much of anything in a fantasy lineup. Houston runs the most plays per minute of any team (ahead of the Eagles) and now they are likely to be throwing 75% of the time with a suspect defense and no ground game. Hoyer is a poor man’s version of Phillip Rivers, and that’s a good thing from a fantasy perspective. Grab him now as a QB2 with upside.
- Robert Woods, WR, Bills ($113): With Sammie Watkins out for the Bills in Week 7, Woods stepped up and performed as the top receiver for Buffalo, racking up nine catches, 84 yards and a score against Jacksonville. Woods should be no worse than the WR2 for the Bills the rest of the way, offering WR3 value with upside.
- David Cobb, RB, Titans ($105): Cobb is eligible to come off of IR in Week 9. This is when Antonio Andrews and everyone else in the Tennessee backfield will go back to the sidelines where they belong. Go get Cobb now.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Eric Ebron, TE, Lions ($97, $113 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Ebron returned to action and found the end zone for Matthew Stafford last week. Ebron is developing nicely and Detroit is throwing a ton, so he makes for a solid TE2 pickup with some upside.
- Ben Watson, TE, Saints ($88, $103 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): The veteran tight end has become the starter and one of the top targets for Drew Brees. If you need a solid backup tight end with a little upside, Watson could be your guy.
- Jamison Crowder, WR, Washington ($83): Crowder is getting more and more chances for Washington, and in Week 7 his 5-48 day helped the team in a big comeback win. Crowder is not flashy but he offers reasonable WR3/flex value in PPR leagues until DeSean Jackson returns.
- Branden Oliver, RB, Chargers ($82): Oliver saw a big workload in Week 7 with 15 touches (9-35 rushing, 6-39 receiving) for San Diego. Oliver split the backfield with Danny Woodhead as the Chargers tried to come back against Oakland last week. Oliver could see 10+ chances going forward as the game script could become the normal game plan for Philip Rivers and San Diego.
- Khiry Robinson, RB, Saints ($82): Robinson found the end zone twice last week despite being the number two back behind Mark Ingram. Chasing his touchdowns and points is going to set you back though, so do not go crazy trying to add him this week.
- Danny Amendola, WR, Patriots ($81): While it is fair to say that any consistent target for New England has fantasy value, I see Amendola’s playing time diminishing as Brandon LaFell gets back in the mix. Be careful chasing Amendola’s first half production.
- Dwayne Harris, WR, Cowboys ($80): Harris is getting more chances as a receiver for New York, and he offers similar upside as Tyler Lockett does for the Seahawks. Both players offer top end speed and kick return value, but Harris is more of a slot receiver and has more PPR value.
- Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Titans ($79): The rookie receiver for the Titans cannot quite crack the starting lineup just yet, but the time is coming. Speculative addition now that could pay off in November and December.
- Alfred Blue, RB, Texans ($67): Fool’s Gold, Part 1. The Texan backfield will be split between Blue and Polk, and neither will produce enough to be even worth a flex spot. Look elsewhere for value.
- Chris Polk, RB, Texans ($67): Fool’s Gold, Part 2. See Alfred Blue’s comments. Polk has a little more talent, but I would not target him or Blue.
- Chris Conley, WR, Chiefs ($45): Conley stepped in and up for Kansas City with Jeremy Maclin sidelined with a concussion. Nothing spectacular so do not expect a ton of value going forward.
- Orleans Darkwa, RB, Giants ($35): Purely a speculation pickup this week. Darkwa found the end zone against the Cowboys on just eight carries, so consistent performances going forward are unlikely.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.