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Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Last comment for now – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Adrian Peterson’s understudy, get him now before Peterson pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 3 Comment: Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Week 4 Comment: Bye weeks are starting now, so teams are going to be more active on the waiver wire, especially with New England off in Week 4. Kickers and defenses will be added and dropped, so start looking ahead and you’re your lineups for the weeks where you will be short a starter or two. Depth is going to play a bigger part in the next several weeks, so do not be afraid to add players for a rainy day now instead of later.
Week 5 Comment: Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, New England and Tennessee were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 Comment: The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 6 of the 2015 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- Charcandrick West, RB, Chiefs ($525): Mr. West, come on down. Jamaal Charles is done for the year, and it looks like West is ahead of Knile Davis for the starting job in Kansas City. West may not see 30+ touches a game, but he is the best running back pickup we’ve seen all year, if you believe he is the clear cut starter going forward. I am going hard for him but I can understand hedging some bets.
- Allen Hurns, WR, Jaguars ($251): Hurns should have been added by now, but if he is still available, grab one of Blake Bortles’ favorite targets.
- Willie Snead, WR, Saints ($227): Snead was a sneaky pickup in September, but that is gone now and you will have to pay up dearly this week if he is still available. The good news is that the top receiver for Drew Brees is still worth spending that kind of money.
- Knile Davis, Rb, Chiefs ($217): Remember last year when Ray Rice was kicked to the curb in Baltimore, and everyone was going after Lorenzo Taliaferro? Turns out the veteran who knew the offense and was far more reliable, Justin Forsett, took the reins and led the Raven running game the rest of the season. Knile Davis could be that next Forsett.
- Eli Manning, QB, Giants ($201): If Manning is available, grab him. He is a borderline QB1 for a team that is struggling to run the ball, and he faces the Eagles next week. Even with issues at wide receiver from a health standpoint, Manning should push for 300 yards and two scores each week.
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- David Johnson, RB, Cardinals ($144): David Johnson saw the goal line work in Week 5, but good luck figuring out who Arizona turns to next week with Chris Johnson, David Johnson and now Andre Ellington all healthy. This screams “RBBC” going forward.
- Andre Ellington, RB, Cardinals ($144): Same as David Johnson.
- Gary Barnidge, TE, Browns ($137, $173 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): We thought he was a funny flash in the pan against Oakland, but no more after that fantastic catch against the Ravens. It might be the catch of the year. Barnidge is the clear starter and has the makings of a sneaky TE1 this season.
- Rueben Randle, WR, Giants ($119): If Randle can stay healthy, he has at least the WR2 spot for the New York Giants, and could move up if Odell Beckham Jr. is out for any length of time.
- Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals ($115): Carson Palmer is red hot and Michael Floyd was a key part of the offense last year. Arizona needs to keep all three wide receivers happy, but it looks like there is plenty of fantasy value to go around for the Cardinals receivers.
- Jamison Crowder, WR, Washington ($114): Crowder has very quietly made quite a role for himself in Washington, moving up the depth chart to WR2 right now behind Pierre Garcon. With no Jordan Reed or DeSean Jackson, Crowder is catching a lot of passes in the offense right now. Even if one or both of those guys gets back in action, Crowder should remain the slot receiver for Washington.
- Kamar Aiken, WR, Ravens ($113): Aiken was the go-to receiver for Joe Flacco last week, and Aiken may have secured the WR2 role for Baltimore going forward. Steve Smith might return in Week 6, but Aiken looks to have secured some fantasy value.
- Ted Ginn Jr Jr., WR, Panthers ($112): Carolina is back in action this week and Ted Ginn Jr was looked to frequently in Week 4 by Cam Newton. If he is on the waiver wire, Ginn could make for a solid WR3.
- Josh McCown, QB, Browns ($111): If you need a quarterback, guess what? McCown has passed for over 300 yards the past three weeks, and he ran a score in last week in Baltimore. Not a sexy pick, but he is getting the job done and is a solid QB2, backup or bye week starter.
- Jaelen Strong, WR, Texans ($109): Two NFL catches and two touchdowns makes for a great start to a career. While I am not going to call him the next Randy Moss or Cris Carter, Strong could see more action going forward.
- Shane Vereen, RB, Giants ($107): The Giants were nearly out of eligible receivers on Sunday Night Football with Odell Beckham Jr. and Rueben Randle both injured. Vereen could lead New York in targets next week against the Eagles.
- Julius Thomas, TE, Jaguars ($106, $143 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): He’s back, and Blake Bortles had a great game in Week 5. Bortles and Thomas will connect for touchdowns soon, so get Thomas now if he is available.
- Andre Johnson, WR, Colts ($105): Just when you thought he was done, Johnson reinvigorates his role and career last week against the Texans. Week 5 may be the high point for him, but Johnson is now back in the WR3 / flex discussion. I would not try and break the bank for him, though, as Matt Hasselbeck throws much shorter than Andrew Luck.
- Tavon Austin, WR, Rams ($105): St. Louis is finding ways to get the ball in the hands of this speedster. He is well worth a roster spot with the Rams getting him the ball.
- Marvin Jones, WR, Bengals ($104): Andy Dalton is throwing a lot and spreading the ball around, making Marvin Jones a reasonable WR3 option going forwards.
- Leonard Hankerson, WR, Falcons ($101): Julio Jones is not 100% healthy and Roddy White is on the trading block. Hankerson looks to be the new WR2 for Atlanta, a big fantasy role for the Falcons
- Javorius Allen / Buck Allen ($100): If Justin Forsett is out for any length of time, grabbing Allen makes good sense. Baltimore lacks playmakers, so a starting running back will have value.
- Jay Cutler, QB, Bears ($100): He’s back, and if you need a quarterback, Cutler might be your guy. Chicago will have to throw a ton this year, and all the skill players can catch. Not exactly the biggest endorsement, I know, but if you are shopping for a QB, he is a solid QB2 / bye week filler.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Ryan Mathews, RB, Eagles ($99): DeMarco Murray may be the lead back in Philadelphia, but the Eagles definitely want to keep all three of their running backs involved in the offense. Mathews hit the end zone again in Week 5 and he is a solid RB2/flex option.
- Theo Riddick, RB, Lions ($98): Well, the committee in Detroit is starting to thin as Ameer Abdullah fumbles too much and Joique Bell is hurt. Zach Zenner was a stud – in August. Riddick is a great pickup in PPR leagues and have some value in all formats.
- Charles Sims, RB, Buccaneers ($97): Sims saw regular usage behind Doug Martin, even with his biggest game of the year. Sims has more value in PPR leagues but he is definitely next in line for touches in the Tampa Bay backfield.
- Mohamed Sanu, WR, Bengals ($96): Sanu is splitting time with Marvin Jones in the WR2 role for the Bengals, but Andy Dalton is putting up enough stats to keep both players fantasy relevant.
- Josh Huff, WR, Eagles ($96): Huff broke off a nice run after the catch to find the end zone in Week 5. He makes for an interesting add, especially if you get kick return yardage. The Eagles spread the ball around but Huff is seeing more and more snaps on offense.
- Dwayne Harris, WR, Giants ($95): New York needs receivers to step up with both Rueben Randle and Odell Beckham Jr. getting hurt, and Harris is seeing a lot of targets out of the slot. He makes for a decent flex option.
- Jacob Tamme, TE, Falcons ($91, $107 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): With Julio Jones at less than full strength, Matt Ryan leaned on his pass catching tight end quite a bit in Week 5. Tamme stepped up and produced against Washington and could do the same on Thursday against the Saints.
- Larry Donnell, TE, Giants ($90, $107 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): The Giants were nearly out of eligible receivers on Sunday Night Football with Odell Beckham Jr. and Rueben Randle both injured. Donnell could see a lot of targets next week against the Eagles.
- Marquess Wilson, WR, Bears ($89): No Alshon Jeffery or Eddie Royal? Apparently no problem with Marquess Wilson stepping into a leading role at receiver for Jay Cutler. While I will not be expecting 100 yards and a touchdown most weeks, Wilson put up solid numbers against Kansas City (6-85-1) and should be no less than the WR3 for the Bears if and when everyone is healthy again.
- Marcel Reece, RB, Raiders ($88): Reece is one of those savvy veterans who always puts up production when he plays, but the question is always one of when he will get in the game. Well, Latavius Murray sat the second half for some reason in Week 5, and Reece produced as the new tailback in the lineup. Reece could be a sneaky add if Murray misses more time.
- Ty Montgomery, WR, Packers ($85): DeVante Adams was out last week and Ty Montgomery not only filled in well but he found the end zone for Aaron Rodgers. That just goes to show that any Packer receiver right now is worth owning.
- Christine Michael, RB, Cowboys ($75): Purely a speculative pickup here, but Michael may see more time in the Dallas backfield soon.
- Brandon LaFell, WR, Patriots ($61): Remember this guy? He might be back soon and immediately push for targets from Tom Brady. That’s a good recipe for fantasy value right there. Grab and stash LaFell now.
- Thomas Rawls, RB, Seahawks ($55): Someone in your league is probably going to overspend for a guy heading to the bench when Marshawn Lynch is healthy. Do not be that guy.
- Antonio Andrews, RB, Titans ($44): I am not sold on the running game in Tennessee. Just because Andrews converted on a one-yard dive, that does not make him a must add.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.