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Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Last comment for now – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Adrian Peterson’s understudy, get him now before Peterson pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 3 Comment: Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Week 4 Comment: Bye weeks are starting now, so teams are going to be more active on the waiver wire, especially with New England off in Week 4. Kickers and defenses will be added and dropped, so start looking ahead and you’re your lineups for the weeks where you will be short a starter or two. Depth is going to play a bigger part in the next several weeks, so do not be afraid to add players for a rainy day now instead of later.
Week 5 Comment: Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, New England and Tennessee were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 Comment: The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Week 7 Comment: Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up. Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter. Add players and handcuffs accordingly.
Week 8 Comment: This week is a make or break waiver wire week to me. Pick up the wrong guys and you will pay dearly for it. Waiver wire money will cost you, as will the wasted roster spot, but also the missed chance to get someone else. I see lots of Fools' Gold this week, so read on and choose wisely.
Week 9 Comment: Time to make some moves. With stars from six teams on the bye week, it is either time to build some depth or to position your team for a playoff push. Throw the budget away and get some guys you want (and might need) for November and the fantasy playoffs.
Week 10 Comment: Time to make some moves. With stars from six teams coming off of the bye week, those guys could fly under the radar. it is either time to build some depth or to position your team for a playoff push. Throw the budget away and get some guys you want (and might need) for November and the fantasy playoffs.
Week 11 Comment: Bye weeks are almost behind us, with just six more teams to take a week off. Now it is time to roster some guys to back up your top backs and receivers and get the roster set for your fantasy playoffs.
Week 12 Comment: You are likely running out of time (and possibly dollars as well). Grab any applicable handcuffs and if you have enough money left, spend it now on a Top 5 waiver wire prospect. Even if you have a strong team, keep hot hands off of the opposing rosters.
Week 13 Comment: If your fantasy playoffs are imminent, make sure you have backups at each spot - even kicker. Anyone can get hurt down the stretch.
Week 14 Comment: It is clearly time to go "all in". These are the final weeks, and it is likely your playoff time. If you can make moves (some leagues are already locked), then grab weekly starters or guys that can help right away. Everyone else does not matter.
Week 15 Comment: Same as last week - It is clearly time to go "all in". These are the final weeks, and it is likely your playoff time. If you can make moves (some leagues are already locked), then grab weekly starters or guys that can help right away. Everyone else does not matter.
Week 16 Comment: For most of you, this is the final week. Go get a player or two to help you win right now. Nothing else matters.
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- Ted Ginn Jr, WR, Panthers ($211): First of all, never look directly at a pass heading for Ted Ginn Jr, because about 30% of the time it will drive you crazy because he will drop it. But, right now, Cam Newton is throwing to Ginn enough to make him a WR1 every week even with dropped passes, so you have to not only own him but put him in your lineup. He is a WR1 against Atlanta this week.
- Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Vikings ($206): No Adrian Peterson? No problem for Teddy Bridgewater, who accounted for five touchdowns (one rushing) with Peterson in and out of the Week 15 contest against the Bears. Bridgewater was highly efficient (17 of 20 passing) and now gets a bad New York Giants defense. ith Stefon Diggs stepping up as a receiver, up goes his quarterback’s fantasy value. Bridgewater offers QB1 value in good matchups such as this week against the Bears.
- Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington ($201): Does Washington really have a shot at the NFC East? Yes, they do – and a win on Sunday in Philadelphia gets it done. Cousins had a big game last week at home against Buffalo, and if he is still available, I like his chances against the Eagles. Just keep in mind that if he wins this week, he could be taking Week 17 off.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Stefon Diggs, WR, Vikings ($185): The rookie from Maryland has really stepped up in his first season, most notably by grabbing two touchdowns last week. If you still have a chance to get him, he has a plus matchup against the Giants Sunday.
- Alfred Blue, RB, Texans ($177): Much excitement for Houston this week after beating the Colts in Indianapolis. They still have issues though with their quarterbacks all a mess, but Blue should be their stabilizing factor (along with their defense). Blue should see a ton of work this week against the Titans.
- James Jones, WR, Packers ($175): Green Bay finally got their passing game going against Oakland, and Jones found the end zone as he led the Packers receivers. The matchups in Week 16 (at Arizona) and against Minnesota to close the year are decent enough to make Jones a WR3 option.
- Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles ($171): Philadelphia needs to win this week and next to make the playoffs, and Matthews looks like he wants to be that WR1 for the Eagles. He has a good matchup against Washington (and the Giants in Week 17), so he is definitely a WR3 (or better) consideration.
- Rueben Randle, WR, Giants ($168): If Odell Beckham Jr. is suspended, Randle becomes the WR1 for New York this week in a must win game against Minnesota. That pretty much means about 10 targets, so a 7-85-1 day is well within reach.
- Kamar Aiken, WR, Ravens ($156): Stop me if you heard this one before – Baltimore needs playmakers. Aiken is as close as they can get in December, and he will be the WR1 for the Ravens the rest of the year. He had a big grab on a fortunate Hail Mary at the end of the first half against Kansas City for a 48-yard score, but even if you take that away (which you can’t) he had a 7-80 day. That’s solid numbers for a WR3 option, which he is against Pittsburgh this week.
- Alfred Morris, RB, Washington ($155): Philadelphia is getting run on every week, and Morris could lead the way for Washington as they try and lock up the NFC East. With Matt Jones banged up, Morris should be getting the most work for Washington and offers solid RB2 value.
- Bilal Powell, RB, Jets ($154): The Jets will need to get something going against the Patriots this week, and their top running back right now is Powell. He had almost 80 combined yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys last Thursday, and Powell is their best receiver for short yardage. I think he is a major contributor against New England has RB2 value.
- Will Tye, TE, Giants ($151, $180 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Tye did it again last week with another solid game (5-43-1) and found the end zone against Carolina. If Odell Beckham Jr. is suspended, Tye will be a top target for Eli Manning against the Vikings on Sunday.
- Rashad Jennings, RB, Giants ($147): Interestingly enough, the Giants seem to have found their lead back – at least for first and second down. Jennings topped 100 yards (16-107-1) against Carolina and has RB2/flex appeal against Minnesota this week.
- Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles ($131, $150 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Philadelphia continues to spread the wealth in the passing game, but Ertz had another solid (8-58-1) day against Arizona. The Eagles need to win Saturday to keep their playoff hopes alive, and Ertz will play a major role in that effort.
- Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Titans ($130): Green-Beckham is a big, athletic rookie wide receiver for Tennessee who is finally getting in the mix. His target numbers are going up along with his production, even with Marcus Mariota out. He is a WR3 option this week against Houston.
- Karlos Williams, RB, Bills ($127): LeSean McCoy has a sprained MCL so Buffalo is in RBBC mode this week, with Williams leading the 1-2 punch with Mike Gillislee. If Williams starts against Dallas, he has solid RB2 appeal.
- Cameron Artis-Payne, RB, Panthers ($127): Jonathan Stewart is still banged up, so Carolina has to use Artis-Payne as their top back again this week against Atlanta. If Payne performs like he did against the Giants (88 yards on 16 touches), he offers solid flex value with some RB2 appeal.
- Danny Woodhead, RB, Chargers ($123): Want to chase some points? Go ahead and roster Woodhead then, as I do not see him finding the end zone with such regularity this week. His four scores came on just eight carries and six catches last week. I would still use him as a RB2/flex in a PPR league, but anything more is asking for a lot.
- Christine Michael, RB, Seahawks ($117): Marshawn Lynch’s timetable to return is still unclear, but Seattle apparently found a hot hand here with Michael returning to Seattle. His 16-84 rushing numbers looked just fine behind a red hot Russell Wilson, so Michael will be the top back for the Seahawks until Lynch returns, which could be January.
- Tavon Austin, WR, Rams ($116): This is not an endorsement of the Rams, St. Louis or their passing game, but Jeff Fisher is smart enough to get the ball in Austin’s hands as much as he can. Austin scored twice last week and I think he will find a way to score again before the season is over. Week 16 looks tough (Seattle) but Week 17, if you are playing, he is at San Francisco.
- Jamison Crowder, WR, Washington ($115): This one is a bit of a hunch play of sorts, but Philadelphia does not do well with quick wide receivers. I see a big game this Saturday for Crowder, making him a solid WR3 with upside.
- Sam Bradford, QB, Eagles ($113): Do I trust Sam Bradford? No. Against Washington? Maybe. If you need a quarterback, here is one that starts, plays well at times and is facing a bad pass defense in a must-win situation.
- Shane Vereen, RB, Giants ($111): Could the Giants have finally settled on a backfield after just 15 weeks? I think so, as Vereen is the passing down back and Rashad Jennings is the running down back. Vereen had just four carries but eight catches and a key touchdown against Carolina on Sunday. Vereen has RB2/flex appeal in PPR leagues going forward.
- Dwayne Harris, WR, Giants ($107): All the Giants receivers move up one peg this week if Odell Beckham Jr. is suspended. Harris may get a start this week in a must win game for New York. That immediately puts him in the WR3/flex category.
- Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts ($106): Moncrief has not been active much of late for the Colts, but he somehow managed to lead the team in receiving on a bad afternoon against the Texans. Indianapolis has to win out and hope that they can sneak back into the division race, but it does not look good. Moncrief does have a nice matchup against Miami this week, as the Dolphins secondary has been shredded in recent contests.
- Ryan Mathews, RB, Eagles ($105): Philadelphia has seemingly turned the page to Mathews as their lead back instead of DeMarco Murray. Not that either of them have been too effective of late, but Mathews does now make for a borderline RB2/flex option.
- James White, RB, Patriots ($104): I do not know what to make of the New England backfield. They just added Steven Jackson – yes, that Steven Jackson – and are struggling to find a reliable option. I would say that White is the PPR guy and either Bolden or Jackson will be the rusher, but it is all just a guess.
- Mike Gillislee, RB, Bills ($103): Gillislee is still behind Karlos Williams even with LeSean McCoy injured, but Gillislee has home run capability every time he touches the ball. In deep leagues he is worth a pickup and could be a flex option against Dallas this week.
- Jerick McKinnon, RB, Vikings ($102): McKinnon’s production last week came because Adrian Peterson went out of the game with a sprained ankle. McKinnon’s only value is if Peterson misses any further time, so if you own Peterson, add McKinnon as your handcuff – otherwise, find another running back to target on the waiver wire.
- Jamies Winston, QB, Buccaneers ($101): Normally I want a quarterback with positive momentum and a playoff chance, but if you are stuck this week, Winston is a viable option. He had a solid game in a loss last Thursday and is building for his future, plus he has a good matchup against a bad Bears secondary this week in Tampa Bay.
- Zach Miller, TE, Bears ($100, $115 in TE-PPR bonus leagues): Chicago is a mess right now, but Jay Cutler has to keep throwing the ball. Miller is the only real tight end left for the Bears, who have to face the Buccaneers this week. Miller is a TE2 with some upside.
- Jermaine Kearse, WR, Seahawks ($100): Kearse is more of the third wide receiver in Seattle, but right now with how Russell Wilson is driving that offense, grabbing any of his receivers as flex option is not a bad call.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Not this time of year. Go big or go home.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.