Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Last comment for now – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Frank Gore’s understudy, get him now before he pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 3 Comment: Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Week 4 Comment: Bye weeks are starting now, so teams are going to be more active on the waiver wire, especially with Green Bay off in Week 4. Kickers and defenses will be added and dropped, so start looking ahead and you’re your lineups for the weeks where you will be short a starter or two. Depth is going to play a bigger part in the next several weeks, so do not be afraid to add players for a rainy day now instead of later.
Week 5 Comment: Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Green Bay and Philadelphia were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 Comment: The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Week 7 Comment: Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up. Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter. Add players and handcuffs accordingly.
Week 8 Comment: This is not a great week for waiver wires, so I went on to dig pretty deep. With six teams on a bye week and a few coming back, it is tricky to find value right now. Harvesting from teams that are taking Week 8 off is a good plan to get ahead of your league for Week 9 and beyond.
Week 9 Comment: You might be running out of time and money at this point of the season. The year is half over, so grab some potential values while you still can. Most of the byes will be behind us after Monday, so start planning for the rest of the fantasy regular season and the playoffs now.
Week 10 Comment: Just a few more weeks of byes and fantasy regular season. Get the players you want now with whatever money you have, and start getting a roster ready for the fantasy playoffs.
Week 11 Comment: You are running out of time for the fantasy football regular season, and to make moves. Bid now, get a few guys that can either help you immediately or for the postseason - or both. Spend those dollars on talent while you can. Byes are nearly over.
Week 12 Comment: Getting close to the "last call" at the waiver wire bar. Spend now. Get a few guys that can either help you immediately or for the postseason - or both. Spend those dollars on talent while you can. Byes are nearly over.
Week 13 Comment: This is the final week of byes (just two - Cleveland and Tennessee), and for many it is the end of the fantasy regular season. Check your rules for your league, as some leagues lock waivers after this week. Be sure to have enough depth on your roster in case someone gets hurt, even a kicker. Do not let that ruin your postseason.
Week 14 Comment: Byes are over and for most leagues, the fantasy playoffs are about to begin. Take a few gambles if you have depth, but be sure to have solid handcuffs and backups to players you are counting on for December. Only players that might start for you matter.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 14 of the 2016 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs ($317): I have to assume that he’s been picked up, but if not, go and get this explosive Kansas City wide receiver. With Jeremy Maclin out again in Week 13, he converted six targets into a 5-53 receiving day while adding 19 yards on the ground. He is a WR3 with upside, even though he only sees the field about 50% of the time.
- Malcolm Mitchell, WR, Patriots ($275): Time to pony up for Tom Brady’s new favorite target – at least while Rob Gronkowski is out. Mitchell had 10 targets and caught eight for 82 yards against the Rams. With Danny Amendola now with a high ankle sprain, Mitchell will be seeing the field quite a bit in December.
- Mike Gillislee, RB, Bills ($203): The on-again, off-again relationship with Gillislee is back on this week after he vultured two touchdowns from LeSean McCoy in Week 13. If McCoy misses time, you simply must have him – and if you need running back values, you can do far worse this time of year.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Charles Sims, RB, Buccaneers ($175): Sims is likely worth far more if you have Doug Martin, but there were concerns on Sunday late in the game against San Diego with Martin on the sidelines as Tampa Bay used Jacquizz Rodgers down the stretch. With Sims set to come off of injured reserve, he could push for touches immediately and he has been a starter before.
- Cameron Brate, TE, Buccaneers ($136, $153 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Jameis Winston keeps making Cameron Brate great again, and so do the injuries to the wide receivers in Tampa Bay. Brate had a 6-86-1 day on nine targets against San Diego and is the second target in the passing game for the Buccaneers, making him a TE1 going forwards.
- Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals ($128): Andy Dalton used two rookie wide receivers and the rest of his cast to post 332 yards and two touchdowns on the Eagles in Week 13. Those numbers are quite good for any quarterback, but the main reason to go get him for Week 14 is the matchup with Cleveland on Sunday. Dalton has strong QB1 fantasy potential against the Browns in that contest.
- Brandon LaFell, WR, Bengals ($128): LaFell led all Bengals receivers in Week 13 with seven targets, resulting in a big day against Philadelphia (5-95-1). LaFell has seen the most targets (16) since A.J. Green was lost for the season, and with a dream matchup looming next week against the Browns, he is in the WR3 (and possibly WR2) conversation for next week.
- Ted Ginn Jr, WR, Panthers ($125): Ginn keeps going up in value, and for good reason. Once again he led the Panthers in receiving, pulling in five of six passes for 80 yards and a long touchdown. Ginn has scored in each of the last three weeks and with Carolina struggling on defense, Ginn offers some solid value in all formats.
- Dontrelle Inman, WR, Chargers ($124): Inman has moved up to the WR2 for San Diego, and he started Week 13 quickly with two catches for 49 yards and a touchdown, but then was relatively quiet with just five total targets. Inman and the Chargers have plenty of value against several plus passing matchups in December.
- Tyler Boyd, WR, Bengals ($122): With Cincinnati’s loss of A.J. Green (hamstring) for the year, rookie Tyler Boyd is starting opposite of Brandon LaFell. Both receivers are getting similar target amounts the past two weeks (Boyd 15, LaFell 16), as Boyd collected four of his six chances for 66 yards against the Eagles in Week 13. With a fantastic matchup against Cleveland next week, Boyd is certainly worth a pickup and probably a start against the Browns on Sunday.
- Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles ($121, $143 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): If some of the other owners in your league have given up on Ertz, snap him up now. He had another big day against Cincinnati in Week 13, catching nine passes for 79 yards and a score against the Bengals. Ertz saw 15 targets from Carson Wentz, which is a huge number (and 25% of Wentz’s enormous 60 attempts). Ertz should be on a roster in all leagues at this point.
- Dwayne Allen, TE, Colts ($116, $121 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Andrew Luck loves to throw to tight ends, and now he has his main starter back to action. Allen racked up three touchdowns against the Jets on Monday Night Football, adding a fourth catch late for a spectacular 4-72-3 stat line. That will be his peak this year, but he is in TE1 conversations now in good matchups.
- Ladarius Green, TE, Steelers ($115, $133 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): If you missed last week’s episode of the Footballguys’ Power Grid, well, you need to hear the discussion (and wager) on Mr. Green from last Thursday. John Lee pointed out how the Giants might struggle against Green, and he did – having a career day with over 100 yards and a touchdown. Pittsburgh needs options in the passing game aside from Antonio Brown, so Green is a strong option for Ben Roethlisberger and also your fantasy roster.
- Dennis Pitta, TE, Ravens ($113, $137 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Those who know me know that I am a big fan of Dennis Pitta, but let’s stick to the facts from Week 13. Pitta had nine catches for 90 yards and two touchdowns against Miami on Sunday, which was the first time he found the end zone not just in 13 games but in three-plus calendar years (thanks to multiple hip injuries). Joe Flacco loves his tight end, and they are like brothers, so it is not surprising that Pitta has 61 catches on the season (which happens to tie his career best total). Pitta is in the lower TE1 fantasy discussion against New England in Week 14.
- C.J. Fiedorowicz, TE, Texans ($112, $139 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): The Texans continue to feature tight ends in their offense, and Fiedorowicz leads that effort for Houston. Yes, I keep saying it, but Fiedorowicz should be owned after another strong game (6-44 on nine targets) against Green Bay in Week 13.
- Taylor Gabriel, WR, Falcons ($112): Taylor Gabriel is another speed demon that Atlanta is trying to use as much as they can. He only had six targets in Week 13 against Kansas City, but he turned five of those into 44 yards receiving and nearly scored a touchdown (tackled at the one-yard line). Any player of this caliber is worth consideration this late in the year, especially in a high-powered offense.
- Pierre Garcon, WR, Washington ($111): Garcon continues to put up solid numbers with a 7-78 week on nine targets against Arizona in Week 13. With Jordan Reed out, Garcon became the top target for Kirk Cousins, and he has WR3 value (especially in PPR leagues) going forwards.
- Jameis Winston, QB, Buccaneers ($110): Tampa Bay is moving the ball more on the ground, but Winston still had nearly 300 yards and a touchdown against San Diego this past week. New Orleans is on the schedule two of the next three contests, making Winston a very attractive option.
- Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens ($105): Joe Flacco tends to do this a few times a year, where he puts up enormous production in a given week. This time it was at the expense of Miami, with Flacco throwing for 381 yards and four touchdowns on Sunday. Baltimore faces New England next Monday night, so Flacco will need to step up again, and he does tend to play to the level of his competition. Flacco makes for a strong QB2 with upside for December.
- Kenneth Dixon, RB, Ravens ($104): Here I am writing up Dixon once again, but he has to be rostered at this point in deep leagues, because there is so little else running back talent likely available. He is in a 50/50 timeshare with Terrance West but Dixon produced 77 yards (and four catches) on just 10 touches against Miami. If he is available and you need running back depth, Dixon has to be on your short list this week.
- Will Fuller, WR, Texans ($101); Five catches and 59 yards may not sound like much, but in December, you take what you can get. Fuller had six targets against Green Bay and gets a great matchup against Indianapolis on Sunday.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Adam Thielen, WR, Vikings ($97): Even with Stefon Diggs back in action, Thielen received nine targets as a receiver in Week 13. Thielen compiled 86 yards on seven catches, which puts him in the WR3 conversation. Great matchups exist for the Vikings the rest of the way (Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Green Bay, Chicago) so Thielen deserves roster consideration.
- Sterling Shepard, WR, Giants ($95): Shepard was slightly more involved against Pittsburgh with eight targets in Week 13, but he only pulled down four passes for 21 yards. His only saving grace was a late score against the Steelers. Shepard is still the WR2 for New York and offers some WR3/flex value in good matchups.
- Ty Montgomery, RB/WR, Packers ($93): Remember Ty Montgomery? James Starks has not taken over the Green Bay backfield and for the most part, the Packers think Montgomery is their best option. Montgomery had a modest Week 13 (6-40 rushing, 2-16 receiving on three targets) but he lost the goal line touches against Houston. Do not overspend, but consider grabbing him as depth.
- Rex Burkhead, RB, Bengals ($84): Burkhead was the clear understudy to Jeremy Hill now that Giovani Bernard is done for the year. Burkhead was 8-38 rushing and 4-28 receiving on five targets against the Eagles, so the 66 yards may not look like much but he has a lot of upside next week against Cleveland. He is definitely worth the roster spot in Week 14 with that matchup looming.
- Anquan Boldin, WR, Lions ($79): Boldin has modest value that increases only with Marvin Jones sidelined. The veteran is good for a handful of catches and possibly a touchdown, like he has done the past two weeks. For the most part he is a depth pickup only.
- Breshad Perriman, WR, Ravens ($78): Perriman only had three targets in Week 13, but he was able to display why the speedster was a first round pick for Baltimore last year. Perriman caught a short pass in the fourth quarter and then ran through the Miami defense for a 52-yard touchdown, highlighting his 2-59 day with the big score. Perriman is not higher than the WR3 or WR4 for Baltimore (behind Steve Smith and Mike Wallace, and splitting time with Kamar Aiken) but he has found the end zone three out of the last four contests. That upside alone warrants a waiver wire move here.
- Vernon Davis, TE, Washington ($77, $83 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): If Jordan Reed cannot continue to suit up, Davis remains a TE2 with upside that should be owned (especially by Reed owners). Davis had a 5-47 game on six targets against Arizona and has about that value every week.
- Justin Forsett, RB, Broncos ($76): Rumors are swirling that Kapri Bibbs was just about to pass Devontae Booker on the Denver depth chart before Bibbs was injured. Now Denver just added Forsett – so he instantly becomes a great gamble pickup if he can pass Booker.
- Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks ($74): Lockett had a modest receiving game on Monday (5-63, six targets) that became a very strong performance thanks to a 75-yard run for a touchdown. Seattle’s offense is starting to step it up, and Lockett is a nice piece of that if you can get him and he has a “boom” week.
- Jerick McKinnon, RB, Vikings ($72): While it is hard to trust the Minnesota run game these days, McKinnon is their lead back and he did find the end zone against Dallas on Thursday Night Football. McKinnon had five total catches for just 14 yards and that score, but also added 9-41 rushing. Not stellar, but certainly worth a bench spot for the fantasy postseason.
- Robby Anderson, WR, Jets ($71): Once again Anderson was a silver lining for a bleak Jets offense. Once Bryce Petty entered into Week 13, Anderson saw a ton of targets, including several deep looks. Anderson finally pulled one down for a 40-yard score against the Colts for New York’s lone touchdown on Monday Night Football. Anderson has some flex appeal, but not much higher.
- Zach Zenner, RB, Lions ($65): Dwayne Washington had been the RB2 for Detroit, but he is now banged up and that led Zenner to contribute a 9-40 day in Week 13. Zenner could push for early down work for the Lions, making him have some value for depth.
- T.J. Yeldon, RB, Jaguars ($57): Yeldon is pretty much the last man standing for the Jaguars, with Denard Robinson (high ankle sprain) and Chris Ivory out. If Ivory can make it back soon, then Yeldon is barely worth owning.
- Josh Bellamy, WR, Bears ($56): While many will gloss over the ugly Bears-49ers game from Sunday, Josh Bellamy actually had a respectable performance. Subbing in for Marquess Wilson (groin) in the second half, Bellamy had six targets on a bad passing day and turned those into a 4-93 performance. Bellamy also added a 12-yard run in the snowy, cold conditions and he also dropped a touchdown, which would have drawn even more attention to him for waivers this week. If Wilson misses time, Bellamy could be starting next week against San Diego.
- Jermaine Kearse, WR, Seahawks ($55): Kearse led Seattle for Week 13 in receiving with nine targets and a 5-68 result against Carolina, but his consistency is not very strong. He is a deep league pickup only.
- Bryce Petty, QB, Jets ($54): Forget his numbers from Monday Night Football (because they were forgettable). Petty is going to be starting the rest of the year for the Jets, and that might make him a viable QB2 in deep leagues. San Francisco is up next in Week 14, which is also a favorable matchup.
- Robert Griffin III III, QB, Browns ($53): Look who is back at quarterback in Cleveland? Yeah, you may not care, but he can put up decent fantasy efforts and is worth a QB2/backup role for a fantasy postseason.
- Paul Turner, WR, Eagles ($47): It’s getting to be that part of the year where we start to see several names that leave you asking the question “Who’s that guy?” Well, that’s why we have player pages at Footballguys. Turner is an UDFA (undrafted free agent) wide receiver from Louisiana Tech played a healthy amount for the Eagles in Week 13 with Jordan Matthews (ankle) inactive. Turner caught six of his eight targets for 80 yards against Cincinnati, and he could be in line for more work throughout December. He is not a sure thing by any means, but eight targets this time of year for anyone on the waiver wire is worth mentioning.
- Trey Burton, TE, Eagles ($46, $51 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): The Eagles are lacking in wide receiver talent right now, which means that they need other players to step up in the passing game. Trey Burton has done just that, catching 22 passes this season and filling in at times for starting tight end Zach Ertz. Burton had five catches on nine targets for 53 yards against Cincinnati for Week 13 in a contest where Ertz had 15 targets as well. With Carson Wentz throwing nearly all game (60 passes), Burton gives some value in very deep tight end leagues.
- Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Eagles ($45): What a disappointing week it was for Green-Beckham. With Jordan Matthews (ankle) out for Week 13, Green-Beckham should have had a very productive afternoon in Cincinnati, but instead he caught only four passes for 29 yards. The one silver lining is the 10 targets he saw from Carson Wentz, so it is possible he could provide value in future weeks.
- Cody Core, WR, Bengals ($33): Once again, who? Core is a rookie wide receiver for Cincinnati from Mississippi, and he caught his first two NFL passes for 58 yards against the Eagles on Sunday. Keep his name in mind as he is now the WR3 for the Bengals, who face off against the woeful Browns in Week 14. He is more of a Keeper/Dynasty play, but certainly worth a mention this week.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.