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Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Last comment for now – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Frank Gore’s understudy, get him now before he pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 3 Comment: Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Week 4 Comment: Bye weeks are starting now, so teams are going to be more active on the waiver wire, especially with Green Bay off in Week 4. Kickers and defenses will be added and dropped, so start looking ahead and you’re your lineups for the weeks where you will be short a starter or two. Depth is going to play a bigger part in the next several weeks, so do not be afraid to add players for a rainy day now instead of later.
Week 5 Comment: Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Green Bay and Philadelphia were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 Comment: The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Week 7 Comment: Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up. Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter. Add players and handcuffs accordingly.
Week 8 Comment: This is not a great week for waiver wires, so I went on to dig pretty deep. With six teams on a bye week and a few coming back, it is tricky to find value right now. Harvesting from teams that are taking Week 8 off is a good plan to get ahead of your league for Week 9 and beyond.
Week 9 Comment: You might be running out of time and money at this point of the season. The year is half over, so grab some potential values while you still can. Most of the byes will be behind us after Monday, so start planning for the rest of the fantasy regular season and the playoffs now.
Week 10 Comment: Just a few more weeks of byes and fantasy regular season. Get the players you want now with whatever money you have, and start getting a roster ready for the fantasy playoffs.
Week 11 Comment: You are running out of time for the fantasy football regular season, and to make moves. Bid now, get a few guys that can either help you immediately or for the postseason - or both. Spend those dollars on talent while you can. Byes are nearly over.
Week 12 Comment: Getting close to the "last call" at the waiver wire bar. Spend now. Get a few guys that can either help you immediately or for the postseason - or both. Spend those dollars on talent while you can. Byes are nearly over.
Week 13 Comment: This is the final week of byes (just two - Cleveland and Tennessee), and for many it is the end of the fantasy regular season. Check your rules for your league, as some leagues lock waivers after this week. Be sure to have enough depth on your roster in case someone gets hurt, even a kicker. Do not let that ruin your postseason.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 13 of the 2016 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
WEEK 13
- Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs ($357): This guy has speed upon speed. He scored three touchdowns on Sunday Night Football against Denver. First he scored on a kickoff return, then he added a rushing touchdown, then finally a goal line catch to send the game into overtime. Hill’s performance was the first time a rookie scored these three different ways in a game since some guy named Gale Sayers. That was in 1965. Yes, I think Hill has some free agent waiver wire appeal this week.
- Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills ($223): Watkins played about half of the snaps for Buffalo on Sunday, and he converted all three of his targets for 80 yards against Jacksonville. Watkins is reestablishing as the WR1 for the Bills, and his playoff schedule is fantastic (Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Miami).
- Colin Kaepernick, QB, 49ers ($219): Not many people are looking towards San Francisco for fantasy help. But Kaepernick continues to post QB1-type numbers. Kaepernick nearly led the 49ers over the Dolphins in Miami with nearly 300 yards passing and over 100 yards rushing including three touchdown passes. With a trip to Chicago next weekend, Kaepernick has a solid QB1 ranking for Week 13.
- Derrick Henry, RB, Titans ($207): If Henry is still out there in your league (and especially if you have DeMarco Murray), he is the best running back to go grab off of waivers this week. Tennessee wants to get him involved more and more, and also to keep Murray fresh for what the Titans hope is a playoff run. Henry had just eight carries against the Bears but converted those few chances into 60 yards and a touchdown. Grab him if you can.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Tyrod Taylor, QB, Bills ($155): With Sammie Watkins back and a good playoff schedule (Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Miami), Taylor is worth a pickup and potential start in December. LeSean McCoy is still the top option in the Buffalo offense, but Taylor can post strong QB1 numbers in favorable matchups like these.
- Marquess Wilson, WR, Bears ($135): We all knew that someone had to step up for the Bears as a receiver, and Wilson returned to action just in time. He converted 11 targets into an 8-125-1 day against Tennessee, and now he gets to face the 49ers.
- Taylor Gabriel, WR, Falcons ($133): Taylor Gabriel has talent that cannot be taught, and that is pure speed. Atlanta is getting him the ball in space to take advantage of this quicknessss, and Gabriel found the end zone twice on just five touches (a 27-yard carry and four catches for 75 yards). His two scores from 25 and 35 yards out were mostly yards after the catch. Atlanta will keep feeding the speedster if he keeps producing at this rate.
- Ted Ginn Jr, WR, Panthers ($125): Ginn keeps going up in value, and for good reason. He had 10 targets against Oakland last Sunday, converting four of those for 115 yards with an 88-yard touchdown. He led the team in targets and has scored two weeks in a row. He will rarely be considered a rock solid option, but he has huge upside in this offense, especially when he gets this many opportunities.
- Dontrelle Inman, WR, Chargers ($124): Not only did Inman have a strong game in Week 12 (6-119-1), but Tyrell Williams has a shoulder concern this week. If Inman starts, he has immediate WR2 value against Tampa Bay.
- Mike Wallace, WR, Ravens ($122): The Baltimore passing game is not prolific, but in certain matchups both Steve Smith and Mike Wallace have big upside. This is the week to use Wallace, as he already has revenge on his mind (#narrativestreet) with his tweet of “7 Days!” before facing his former team as Miami comes to Maryland. Joe Flacco will feed him the ball and I expect 100 yards and a score this week.
- Kenny Britt, WR, Rams ($121): Britt should probably be owned in most leagues by now, but if not, the leading targeted receiver for the Rams should be a solid pickup. Britt converted 10 targets into a 5-52-1 day as Jared Goff looked more comfortable in his second start. Los Angeles has a strong schedule with Week 14 (Atlanta) and Week 16 (San Francisco) offering production opportunities in December.
- Tyler Boyd, WR, Bengals ($119): After A.J. Green went down with a hamstring injury, Boyd stepped in as the top receiver in Week 11, but he struggled in Week 12 with the Ravens, catching just five passes for 62 yards, and a few of those were in garbage time. With much better matchups on the horizon (Philadelphia, Cleveland, Pittsburgh), Boyd still stands as a WR2 option for December.
- Mohamed Sanu, WR, Falcons ($118): Sanu is producing now as the WR2 for the Falcons, and he put up another solid showing in Week 12 (1-5 rushing, 8-65 receiving). Whenever Julio Jones has a tough matchup, Sanu jumps into WR2/3 consideration, and now the Falcons also get some soft spots on the schedule (San Francisco Week 15, Carolina Week 16).
- Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts ($113): Moncrief may still be available, and if he is, now is the time to pick him up. T.Y. Hilton has a back problem and could be missing time. If he does, Moncrief immediately elevates to WR1 status for the Colts.
- Phillip Dorsett, WR, Colts ($109): Similarly with adding Donte Moncrief, if T.Y. Hilton cannot go this week (or future weeks), Dorsett elevates to WR2 status for Indianapolis. Considering Andrew Luck throws a ton and that is the primary way the Colts generate offense, if Dorsett starts he has immediate WR3-type value.
- Kenneth Dixon, RB, Ravens ($104): I know I probably write up Dixon every week, but pickings are getting very slim at running back as we flip the calendar to December this week. Dixon had more touches than Terrance West in Week 12 as Dixon had 80 total yards on 17 chances against Cincinnati on Sunday. Fantasy owners in need for running back help should grab him if he is available.
- Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins ($103): Ryan Tannehill took full advantage of a soft matchup against San Francisco in Week 12, throwing for nearly 300 yards and three touchdowns and rushing for 34 extra yards. Tannehill could have had even more passing numbers if DeVante Parker had been able to convert a few near catches. The schedule is mixed the rest of the way for Tannehill, starting with a somewhat favorable matchup in Week 13 with the Ravens.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Jets ($102): If you are feeling lucky, try grabbing Fitzpatrick as a backup quarterback with some upside. He gets the Colts this week and then the 49ers in Week 14, making him a possible streaming option the next two weeks.
- Matt Barkley, QB, Bears ($101): Somewhat quietly, Matt Barkley had a solid performance (28-54-316-3-2) against the Titans, nearly pulling off the upset for Chicago at home. Barkley had very pedestrian receivers, who had plenty of drops that cost Barkley an even bigger day. With San Francisco heading to Chicago next weekend, Barkley could be a streaming (and DFS) option for Week 13.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Malcolm Mitchell, WR, Patriots ($97): Mitchell got the chance to start with Chris Hogan out in Week 11, and he was able to convert five targets into four catches and 98 yards, highlighted by a 56-yard touchdown, his first in the NFL. I mentioned last week that if Hogan continues to miss time, Mitchell has solid upside as he is already receiving praise from Tom Brady. Well, Hogan was back an on the field far more than Mitchell, who had just five catches and 42 yards – but two touchdowns. He is a high risk, high reward addition.
- Quincy Enunwa, WR, Jets ($91): Enunwa had a strong Week 12 (5-109-1) but just five targets. He has been on the field quite a bit as the WR2 for New York, but the targets are just not there on a consistent basis. He does have good matchups looming (Colts, 49ers) but be cautious with bidding on him.
- Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Eagles ($88): Philadelphia benched Nelson Agholor and gave Green-Beckham the next shot at being their WR2. He responded to the call, catching six of 10 targets for 82 yards against Green Bay on Monday Night Football. He did not shine as a huge player, but the production was there enough to be a possible WR3 in the right matchup, especially in PPR leagues.
- Anquan Boldin, WR, Lions ($85): The savvy veteran receiver knows how to get open, especially in the Red Zone. That is just what he did for Detroit on Thanksgiving, scoring his sixth touchdown this season and catching seven of nine targets for 69 yards. His WR3 value is touchdown dependent, but he does have some great matchups coming soon (Saints, Bears).
- C.J. Fiedorowicz, TE, Texans ($84, $89 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): The Texans continue to feature tight ends in their offense, and Fiedorowicz leads that effort for Houston. Fiedorowicz saw six targets last week for a 4-42 game, and was tackled just outside the one-yard line. That score would have completely changed his value for the week. Now you can grab him with the Colts and Bengals coming in Weeks 14 and 16.
- Jared Goff, QB, Rams ($83): Goff threw his first NFL touchdown in New Orleans in Week 12 with his best performance of his young career. By any measure, his 314 yards and three touchdowns were very good numbers, and with a favorable fantasy playoff schedule (Atlanta in Week 14, San Francisco in Week 16) he makes for a sneaky pickup for December.
- Dwayne Allen, TE, Colts ($81, $87 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Allen and Luck could be on the field together for the first time in a while, and Allen looked good with a 5-49 game on six targets against the Steelers on Thanksgiving night. His value also increases if T.Y. Hilton (back) mises any time.
- Kenny Stills, WR, Dolphins ($79): Stills does not get enough chances on a regular basis, but when Ryan Tannehill has a strong game, Stills gets some consideration. Stills converted six targets into a 3-72-1 day against the 49ers, but only the Jets matchup in Week 15 looks favorable. He does elevate in status of DeVante Parker (back) misses any time.
- Jermaine Gresham, TE, Cardinals ($78, $88 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Arizona is taking advantage of the tight end positon more these days, led by Gresham. He had 10 targets against Atlanta, converting five for 35 yards and a score. That is two weeks in a row with a touchdown. His December schedule is favorable, especially with the Saints and Seahawks in Weeks 15 and 16.
- Adam Thielen, WR, Vikings ($77): Thielen showed on Thanksgiving that his upside is eight catches and 53 yards (and a chance at a score) when Stefon Diggs is out. That barely makes flex value in PPR leagues.
- Vance McDonald, TE, 49ers ($57, $65 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): With Colin Kaepernick having strong production of late, McDonald has really increased in production. He converted eight targets into a 4-60 day against Miami, and he is now a TE2 with upside.
- Vernon Davis, TE, Washington ($56, $63 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): If Jordan Reed cannot play (AC joint), Davis will be the starter for Washington at tight end. The matchup is not ideal (at Arizona) but he should be a TE2 with some upside.
- Josh Hill, TE, Saints ($55, $63 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Josh Hill saw his biggest day of the year in Week 12, catching all six targets against the Rams for 74 yards. Hill faces Detroit this week, and he could be a strong streaming tight end option.
- Denard Robinson, RB, Jaguars ($45): It was Robinson that stepped in for Chris Ivory on Sunday when Ivory came up lame with a hamstring injury. He did not put up very strong numbers (13-39 rushing), but 13 chances are not much to sneeze at this late in the year.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.