Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Last comment for now – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Frank Gore’s understudy, get him now before he pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 3 Comment: Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Week 4 Comment: Bye weeks are starting now, so teams are going to be more active on the waiver wire, especially with Green Bay off in Week 4. Kickers and defenses will be added and dropped, so start looking ahead and you’re your lineups for the weeks where you will be short a starter or two. Depth is going to play a bigger part in the next several weeks, so do not be afraid to add players for a rainy day now instead of later.
Week 5 Comment: Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Green Bay and Philadelphia were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 Comment: The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Week 7 Comment: Not only is the (fantasy) season half over, injuries are starting to pile up. Once you can start to get past some bye weeks, depth on rosters will matter. Add players and handcuffs accordingly.
Week 8 Comment: This is not a great week for waiver wires, so I went on to dig pretty deep. With six teams on a bye week and a few coming back, it is tricky to find value right now. Harvesting from teams that are taking Week 8 off is a good plan to get ahead of your league for Week 9 and beyond.
Week 9 Comment: You might be running out of time and money at this point of the season. The year is half over, so grab some potential values while you still can. Most of the byes will be behind us after Monday, so start planning for the rest of the fantasy regular season and the playoffs now.
Week 10 Comment: Just a few more weeks of byes and fantasy regular season. Get the players you want now with whatever money you have, and start getting a roster ready for the fantasy playoffs.
Week 11 Comment: You are running out of time for the fantasy football regular season, and to make moves. Bid now, get a few guys that can either help you immediately or for the postseason - or both. Spend those dollars on talent while you can. Byes are nearly over.
Week 12 Comment: Getting close to the "last call" at the waiver wire bar. Spend now. Get a few guys that can either help you immediately or for the postseason - or both. Spend those dollars on talent while you can. Byes are nearly over.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 12 of the 2016 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- Thomas Rawls, RB, Seahawks ($239): Now that Christine Michael is gone and C.J. Prosise is injured, Seattle becomes the Thomas Rawls show going forwards. If by some stroke of good luck he is available, he becomes the top running back pickup this week.
- Tyler Boyd, WR, Bengals ($201): After A.J. Green went down with a hamstring injury, Boyd stepped in and converted eight targets into a 6-54-1 day against Buffalo in Week 11. The young rookie will now be thrust into a starting role, but he has been a WR1 in college (Pittsburgh) and has had six months to learn the league. I expect him to perform quite well and surprise a few people, and he is probably the top WR on the waiver wire list this week.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills ($165): Last chance to get Watkins here before he returns to action. With Robert Woods suffering a sprained knee, Watkins could be the top target right away starting in Week 12.
- James Starks, RB, Packers ($121): Starks had a pretty quiet Week 11 aside from a blown coverage catch and run for a 31-yard score. His other 13 touches were not for much (9-25 rushing, 4-15 receiving aside from the 31-yard TD), but 13 touches are still encouraging. He is a solid RB2 at this point of the year, if he is on the waiver wire.
- Marqise Lee, WR, Jaguars ($117): Lee caught four of seven targets against Detroit, including a fade touchdown over Darius Slay. Lee racked up 52 yards and looked to be a reliable target for Blake Bortles. He is definitely in the WR3 mix for the rest of the season.
- Tim Hightower, RB, Saints ($110): Hightower has looked like a competent backup for Mark Ingram, and now Ingram has a concussion after last week’s Thursday Night Football game against Carolina. Hightower produced last week as both a rusher (12-69) and a receiver (8-57). With both backs healthy, Hightower is more of a flex option, but he elevates to a RB2 with RB1 upside if Ingram misses time.
- Sterling Shepard, WR, Giants ($115): Shepard saw 11 targets in Week 11 against the Bears, catching five for 50 yards and a touchdown. He is fast becoming the WR2 for the Giants and gets a plus matchup against Cleveland in Week 12.
- Dion Lewis, RB, Patriots ($113): Maybe I was wrong that there is no more time to snap up Dion Lewis. After getting just 21 snaps against San Francisco, he may still get overlooked despite five carries for 23 yards and 3-26 receiving on five targets. That’s 10 of 21 plays where he was involved when he was on the field. James White is a solid running back, but the Patriots like Lewis more.
- Pierre Garcon, WR, Washington ($111): Six catches, 116 yards and a touchdown in Week 11 against Green Bay for Garcon, who continues to see plenty of targets from Kirk Cousins. Washington has a great Week 16 matchup with the Bears (weather permitting) so he makes for a solid WR3 the rest of the way.
- Chris Ivory, RB, Jaguars ($107): Jacksonville has now given Chris Ivory a lot more work since switching offensive coordinators (out – Greg Olson, in – Nathaniel Hackett), and Ivory has stepped up with more production. In Week 11 against Detroit, Ivory was a mediocre rusher (17-39) but added more value as a receiver (6-75), giving him RB2 / flex value. Running back values are hard to find this late in the season, so if Ivory is out there, I would suggest snapping him up.
- Colin Kaepernick, QB, 49ers ($106): Kaepernick continues to post solid performances and being a viable fantasy quarterback option. Between seven passing touchdowns against just two interceptions in the past five San Francisco contests and three games with 200+ yards passing in the last three weeks, along with 20 or more rushing yards (and one score), Kaepernick should be owned in most fantasy leagues.
- Devante Parker, WR, Dolphins ($105): Parker led Miami with 10 targets, 79 yards and a touchdown against the Rams in an ugly Week 11 contest. This marks the second solid performance in a row (eight targets, 5-103 receiving in Week 10). While Miami is not a very attractive offense right now, Parker looks to be a solid WR3 option. He also gets to face the 49ers this week.
- Brandon LaFell, WR, Bengals ($103): With Cincinnati’s loss of A.J. Green (hamstring), Brandon LaFell is now firmly cemented as a starting wide receiver for the Bengals on the opposite side of rookie Tyler Boyd. When Green went down in Week 11 on just the second play, Boyd saw eight targets to LaFell’s nine, showing that Andy Dalton is going to be splitting the looks between the two. Boyd has far more upside and talent, but LaFell can put up WR3 fantasy numbers if he sees nine chances each week.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flyer pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Wendell Smallwood, RB, Eagles ($98): Smallwood could be the lead back for the Eagles on Monday Night Football, but the problem is that you have to wait until game time on Monday to really know. Smallwood posted decent numbers against Seattle (13-48 rushing, 4-31 receiving on five targets), but the upside here is that Philadelphia may try and control the ball against Green Bay in Week 12 just like they did against Atlanta in Week 10. Again, the problem is timing here - Darren Sproles may try and play with a broken rib and Ryan Mathews (knee) is also questionable. Best to grab Smallwood now and hope he gets another chance to start.
- Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles ($93, $103 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): If some of the other owners in your league have given up on Ertz, snap him up now. He caught six of 11 targets against Seattle in Week 11 for 35 yards and his first touchdown of the year, and he also had another score called back on a penalty. With the Eagles possibly short at running back on Monday Night Football and facing a Green Bay team that is not too strong against the pass or tight ends, Ertz could see a lot of action.
- Malcolm Mitchell, WR, Patriots ($87): Mitchell got the chance to start with Chris Hogan out in Week 11, and he was able to convert five targets into four catches and 98 yards, highlighted by a 56-yard touchdown, his first in the NFL. If Hogan continues to miss time, Mitchell has solid upside as he is already receiving praise from Tom Brady.
- C.J. Fiedorowicz, TE, Texans ($85, $99 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): The Texans continue to feature tight ends in their offense, and Fiedorowicz leads that effort for Houston. Fiedorowicz saw 10 targets on Monday Night Football against Oakland, reeling in six of those for 82 yards. After a slow start, he has 44 targets in the past seven contests, with seven or more chances in four of the past five games. He is a very viable TE2 with upside, and the Texans get to face some good matchups the rest of the season.
- Charles Clay, TE, Bills ($83, $97 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): With Buffalo without Sammie Watkins and now Robert Woods, Clay has been in line to see a lot of targets. He converted seven chances for a pedestrian 5-23 day against Cincinnati in Week 11, which puts him more in the TE2 category. Watkins is expected back in Week 12 while Woods will miss a few weeks, leaving Clay as the second-most likely target for Buffalo. Even with that distinction, he is more of a TE2 as the big plays have not been there for Clay this year.
- Mike Gillislee, RB, Bills ($82): LeSean McCoy just had thumb surgery this week, but he is expected back in action come Sunday. Gillislee stepped in for McCoy after he was out in the third quarter against the Bengals, rushing for 72 yards on 14 carries. Gillislee is not McCoy by any stretch, but he is a capable fill in if McCoy misses time and he should be owned as a backup with upside if he gets a spot start or two.
- Austin Hooper, TE, Falcons ($81, $93 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): With Jacob Tamme undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery, the rookie finds himself as the starting tight end for one of the top offenses in the NFL. Hooper is a strong TE2 with plenty of TE1 upside.
- Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts ($80): Moncrief has been a staple on the field for Indianapolis since his return to action in Week 8, as he has lined up on offense at least 59 snaps and seen at least six targets the past three contests for the Colts. He has also found the end zone for three straight games despite only pulling in 11 receptions for 133 total yards over those three weeks. He is a boom / bust type receiver, but he will not be bid high this week with Andrew Luck likely out. Grab Moncrief cheap now for some WR3 value later this season.
- Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings ($77): This is a gamble pickup, as there are rumors that the Pro Bowl running back may return to action in December. If he does, he faces the Colts in Week 15 and Packers in Week 16. With bye weeks nearly behind us, a bench spot is worth the upside here.
- Ted Ginn Jr, WR, Panthers ($76): Ginn is not the centerpiece of the Carolina offense by any means, but he does get several chances to put up strong fantasy production. Ginn scored his first touchdown of the season against New Orleans in Week 11 and nearly found the end zone twice on just one carry (13 yards) and another four targets (3-46-1). He is more of a flex play, but he deserves to be owned in deeper leagues.
- Tajae Sharpe, WR, Titans ($75): Remember this guy? He is back in play now with the Titans, as he saw seven targets against the Colts, converting four of them into 68 yards and a touchdown. Sharpe has topped 50 yards for three straight weeks and his snaps on offense (61 of 71 plays) and targets are increasing. He is a viable WR3 option in PPR leagues.
- Jared Cook, TE, Packers ($74, $77 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Cook has his best game as a Packer on Monday, catching six of 11 targets for 105 yards and a touchdown – and it could have been even more. Cook dropped a sure score at the goal line, and later added a fumble for good measure. Even with the miscues, this is why the Packers signed him, and he makes for a TE2 with upside.
- Adam Thielen, WR, Vikings ($67): Thielen saw two end zone targets, converting one to a highlight reel touchdown that was rewarded on replay, while the other resulted in first and goal at the one yard line against the Cardinals. He added three more catches as he went a perfect 5-for-5 for 65 yards and the score in Week 11. He is a solid WR3 or flex option, but he is known more as a blocker and does not see a ton of targets.
- Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Vikings ($60): Patterson saw eight targets, catching four for 53 yards against the Cardinals in Week 11, but he will be remembered more for his 104 yard touchdown return of the kickoff that started the second half. Patterson has amazing speed and offers this upside on a weekly basis, but remains a risky WR3 or flex option in fantasy.
- Corey Coleman, WR, Browns ($68): Coleman only had four catches and 39 yards in Week 11 against the Steelers, but he saw a whopping 12 passes head in his direction. Any wide receiver getting that many chances is worth a roster spot. He would be worth much more if Cleveland had a better quarterback.
- Sam Bradford, QB, Vikings ($67): With Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph doing solid work in the passing game, Bradford is a solid QB2 with upside. Some of that upside strikes this Thursday in a Thanksgiving matchup with Detroit. Bradford could certainly connect with both targets, along with other secondary receivers (Adam Thelien, Cordarrelle Patterson) to produce a strong fantasy number.
- Carson Wentz, QB, Eagles ($66): Carson Wentz has not been forced to throw too often this year, but Aaron Rodgers comes to town on Monday Night Football, while the Packers defense has given up an average of 310 yards passing in their last four contests. That stat alone makes him a viable one week option for Week 12 – but it is risky, as the Eagles did take the air out of the ball against Atlanta at home in Week 10.
- Dennis Pitta, TE, Ravens ($65, $77 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): This is more of a gut feel and matchup decision here, but Pitta did catch three of five targets for 30 yards against Dallas in Week 11. Cincinnati is next up on the schedule, and they have not defended the tight end position well. I am going out on a limb, but I think this is the week Pitta finally finds the end zone.
- Percy Harvin ($55), Marquise Goodwin ($54) and Brandon Tate ($53), WR, Bills: I group all three of these guys because they combined for just 10 targets in all last week, even with Robert Woods suffering a knee injury. Harvin had four chances (Goodwin and Tate, three each) but only Tate broke 20 yards (2-48). With Woods out, Sammy Watkins and TE Charles Clay will dominate targets (as will the running backs). Do not bother much with these guys, unless you want to take a shot on Harvin.
- Scott Tolzien, QB, Colts ($45): if you need a Week 12 quarterback, there is a reasonably good chance that Andrew Luck may miss the Thursday night contest due to a concussion. That elevates backup Scott Tolzien as next man up to face a weak Pittsburgh pass defense. He makes for a decent one week option.
- Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Eagles ($43): This is a deep league play for sure, but here me out. The Eagles are struggling to find a viable WR2, but Green-Beckham has been on the field quite a bit the past four weeks, and aside from an Atlanta game the favored the run attack, Beckham has 22 targets in the other three contests, including two weeks with nearly identical production (Week 8 at Dallas, 5-55 on nine targets and a 5-54-1 game last Sunday against Seattle with eight more targets). Carson Wentz has not been forced to throw too often this year, but Aaron Rodgers comes to town on Monday Night Football, while the Packers defense has given up an average of 310 yards passing in their last four contests.
- Rex Burkhead, RB, Bengals ($33): Not much to see here, aside from the understudy for Giovani Bernard (torn ACL0 will now see a few snaps on passing downs. I do not see much fantasy value here as I expect Jeremy Hill to be the workhorse now for the Bengals.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
· Pierre Garcon, WR, Washington ($111): Six catches, 116 yards and a touchdown in Week 11 against Green Bay for Garcon, who continues to see plenty of targets from Kirk Cousins. Washington has a great Week 16 matchup with the Bears (weather permitting) so he makes for a solid WR3 the rest of the way.