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Welcome to "Money Talks". The general purpose of this column will be to give you some advice for one of the more popular methods of adding new fantasy players each week – the Free Agency Acquisition Budget, or "FAAB". What this is in a nutshell is a budget of money that every team is given to bid on free agents each week, much like in an auction. Usually this is done via blind bids, meaning that no other owner knows how much you have bid on a given player – unless you announce your bid in some sort of a poker-like bluff move. Some leagues do reveal all bids after the bidding is closed and waivers are processed, while other leagues just show winning bids. It can be fun to see if several teams bid on a given player or if an owner spent a ton of money on a guy no one else even wanted.
Enough of that for now. I will give both general advice and also some weekly assistance for this advanced waiver process in this column. I hope you enjoy and get the player(s) you want every week. Here we go.
ASSUMPTIONS
As with anything in fantasy football, not all leagues are the same. Some are big, some are small. Such is the way with FAAB waivers. Some leagues use a big budget of $1,000 per owner or more, while others use $100 or less. I will assume $1,000 for the purposes of this article and let you, the reader, do the math to adjust to your league. Another difference is that in some leagues the FAAB process is the ONLY way to get new players. Other leagues have the FAAB process first and then allow free transactions for that week on any player not getting a bid (so you can cover your kicker's bye, for example, for free). I will assume that is NOT the case here and think that every transaction will cost you something. If it does not, great – but at least you know why I might say to grab a kicker now for a buck.
Now let's talk about bidding in general. For many more experienced leagues, round numbers are the kiss of death. Even older leagues (and owners) start to see bidding trends over time ("Jeff loves to end in a 7"), which can be dangerous when you are trying to outbid everyone. The natural assumption is to bid in large round numbers – please avoid that temptation. $53 vs. $50 may seem like a trivial difference, but many more people bid $50 instead of adding a few extra bucks that can change who wins.
Another generally accepted rule – do not be stingy early in the year. Sure it is nice to hold on to extra "cash" in case a stud RB goes down for the year, but look around your league and count how many NFL backups are even available on the waiver wire. Not many? Right. Go big early on players who seem to come out of nowhere, like Victor Cruz last year. Most fantasy studs appear on the scene in September instead of weeks later.
There is a "ying" to the "yang" of the last rule – which is to not excessively churn your roster. While it may not seem like much, but if you drop 5-10% of your bankroll each week on bench players that never see the light of day in your lineup, then you are just wasting money. Think about it this way – if you save for a rainy day, you can be prepared to go all out for when you need that money to go "all in" on a player you really want. Of course the trick is figuring out which player is worthy of such a big bid.
Last comment for now – it is far better to bid on a player a week or two early instead of a week late. That can be the difference between a $3 player and a $300 player. If you really want Frank Gore’s understudy, get him now before he pulls that hammy and everyone gets in on the action.
Week 3 Comment: Another item to discuss – who to drop. Keep perspective on your team. If you are short on running backs, you probably want to cut a different position player to grab running back depth. To say that another way, if you are strong and deep already at wide receiver, a sixth or seventh wideout is very unlikely to help. Let that steer your cuts.
Week 4 Comment: Bye weeks are starting now, so teams are going to be more active on the waiver wire, especially with Green Bay off in Week 4. Kickers and defenses will be added and dropped, so start looking ahead and you’re your lineups for the weeks where you will be short a starter or two. Depth is going to play a bigger part in the next several weeks, so do not be afraid to add players for a rainy day now instead of later.
Week 5 Comment: Bye weeks are here, so some of the best deals are both players on a bye week or coming off of one. For example, Green Bay and Philadelphia were both off last week. With the idea of "out of sight, out of mind", players on both teams could be bargain acquisitions – and this general trend will continue through Week 12.
Week 6 Comment: The fantasy regular season is nearly half over, so if you are sitting on some free agent money, it is probably time to buy some guys you might need – now or later. Even if a player is only startable for 2-3 games, that is a big percentage of the fantasy regular season. Shoot the lock off of that wallet.
Now, on to some specific players to target here in NFL Week 6 of the 2016 season:
BIG BUCKS
Big Bucks are reserved for immediate starter potential players (QB1, RB1/2, WR1/2/3, Flex, TE1) in most league formats.
- Martellus Bennett, TE, Patriots ($427, $521 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): There is no way he should be on any league waiver wire, but if he is, fix it right away.
- Cameron Meredith, WR, Bears ($307): Meredith is probably the #1 waiver wire target here in Week 6, and for good reason. While some are wondering who this guy is, we were talking about him as far back as July. Meredith, a second year UDFA who saw limited action last year (11-120 on 16 targets all season), had a career game (9-130-1) against the Colts, adding a carry for six yards. He will be remembered for the big day, but two fumbles – including one in the final minutes – marred his otherwise strong performance. Meredith will be pushed for playing time when Eddie Royal can practice again, but both players should be viable fantasy options in an offense that had almost 400 yards passing last week.
- Sammie Coates Jr, WR, Steelers ($297): If you were waiting to pick up Sammie Coates Jr (if he is even available), the price has skyrocketed after Week 5’s two touchdown performance. Coates had just six catches but 139 yards and the two touchdowns, but he could have had even more on the day with several dropped balls including one at the goal line that was a sure touchdown. Several of his four dropped balls could have been scores, so just imagine what could have been for Coates. Even with that issue, it looks like he will be the starting wide receiver opposite of Antonio Brown for the rest of the year.
- Jeremy Kerley, WR, 49ers ($227): Another week, another mention of Kerley. He should be on a roster by now, but if he is available, he should be at or near the top of your bid list. Kerley has scored two weeks in a row and has a strong stat line (26-304-2) going on the season for a very bad team. Even better is that most of the production has come in the past two weeks (14-190-2). If you need a wide receiver and Kerley is still out there, go get him.
MEDIUM MONEY
Medium Money is reserved for players who could be bye week starters or that have upside potential on good matchups in most league formats.
- Brian Hoyer, QB, Bears ($125): Many have said that players do not lose their starting roles due to injury, but that might be what is happening in Chicago. Yes, that is a repeat statement. Hoyer threw for 397 yards and two scores with a second string group of receivers against the Colts in Week 5. The schedule is going to turn bad soon (Week 7 at Green Bay, Week 8 at Minnesota), but if you need a backup and spot starter, here is one of the top options.
- Marcus Mariota, QB, Titans ($125): And here is the other likely top option if you have a need at quarterback. Mariota took advantage of a bad Miami defense for four touchdowns (one rushing) in a 30-17 win for Tennessee in Week 5. Mariota had limited numbers passing (20-29-163) but the touchdowns really boosted his fantasy value, along with 60 yards as a runner. The good news is that the schedule looks very favorable the next two weeks (Cleveland, Indianapolis), so he makes for a great bye week replacement option. I have Mariota at the same price point as Hoyer, but I would probably take Mariota over Hoyer these next two weeks.
- Matt Asiata, RB, Vikings ($117): We dismissed Asiata’s value a bit too quickly with how well Jerick McKinnon played in Week 4. Well, we got a reminder that Asiata is still a factor for Minnesota, especially around the goal line. Asiata not only vultured a one-yard score from McKinnon in the first quarter. Even bigger news was Asiata’s three catches for 46 yards, which when added to his rushing day (14-55-1) resulted in over 100 yards and a score. Asiata deserves a roster spot in all formats.
- Sam Bradford, QB, Vikings ($110): I think Jon Dorenbos must have taught Sam Bradford a few magic tricks while they were both Eagles, because Bradford has done a great act of becoming a fantasy relevant quarterback once again. Even without Stefon Diggs, Bradford was able to complete 73% of his throws (23-30) for two scores and no interceptions against the Houston Texans in Week 5. With a bye week this week, now is the time to sneak him onto your team and stash him for some good matchups later in the year.
- Anquan Boldin, WR, Lions ($105): Last time I mentioned Boldin, I said that he could be pushing to start ahead of Golden Tate. The stats from last week are telling – Boldin caught all four of his targets for 48 yards, while Tate snapped up only three of his five chances for 39 yards receiving. Boldin is playing as good as Tate, and possibly better, so why not pick up the Detroit WR3 who could be the WR2?
- Hunter Henry, TE, Chargers ($104, $128 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Even with Antonio Gates back in action, Hunter Henry found his way into the action in Week 5. Henry snared three of his four targets for 74 yards and a touchdown on a play clearly designed to get him open in the red zone for the easy score. A tough matchup comes this week (Denver), but Henry has solid upside the rest of the way.
- Chris Hogan, WR, Patriots ($103): All the limelight for the Patriots is going to Tom Brady and TE Martellus Bennett, and rightly so after those big performances. What is lost in the shuffle is Chris Hogan’s 117 yards on four catches, highlighted by two long receptions of 43 and 63 yards. Consistency is going to be a problem, as his five targets was fifth for New England. Unless he can pull down deep passes each week, he is only a gamble fantasy starter where you hope he “booms” more than “busts”.
CHUMP CHANGE
Chump Change is reserved for players who are relatively considered to be a good flier pick to stash on a fantasy bench in case he blows up over the next few weeks and becomes a potential immediate or spot starter.
- Theo Riddick, RB, Lions ($99): Okay, if you had Theo Riddick at two touchdowns for last week, I want to see your projections. That was an amazing day for Riddick, as he was the right man in the right place for Matthew Stafford’s short passing game against the Eagles in Week 5. Riddick led Detriot in rushing (11-49) with his 6-33-2 day receiving, but was mostly schemed out of the game plan in the second half because he is not much of an inside runner. Riddick has more value in PPR leagues, especially in better matchups than next week (Rams).
- Jalen Richard, RB, Raiders ($98): Richard split time in the backfield with DeAndre Washington in Week 5 against the Chargers, as both backs received 14 touches with Latavius Murray (toe) inactive. Richard was more effective on the day, gathering up more yards (97 to 52) with six catches for 66 yards. Neither back found the end zone, however, and Richard was the last option at the goal line behind both Washington and fullback Jamize Olawale. Richard offers some flex appeal but not much higher.
- Tavon Austin, WR, Rams ($97): Austin was used again as a runner (3-26) and a receiver (7-59), but most of those touches and 10 targets came early in the Week 5 contest against Buffalo. Los Angeles is struggling to get Austin the ball, but at least they are scheming him in more. The speedster is a flex WR at best right now, but his upside makes him worth a bench spot.
- Charles Clay, TE, Bills ($97, $117 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): With Buffalo without Sammie Watkins, Clay saw the most targets in Week 5 and converted all five of those looks for 73 yards. Clay has a good matchup against the 49ers in Week 5, making him a borderline TE1 candidate.
- Jesse James, TE, Steelers ($96, $115 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Ben Roethlisberger is leading a huge passing attack, which means everyone is getting in on the act. New starter this year Jesse James has three touchdowns on the season despite just 18 catches. In favorable matchups, James becomes a TE1 in this big offense, so add him if you see an opportunity to use him, such as when your normal starter is on a bye.
- Cameron Artis-Payne, RB, Panthers ($96): Artis-Payne led the Panthers in rushing (18-85-2) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football, scoring two touchdowns in the third quarter. Artis-Payne outplayed Fozzy Whittaker (5-45), which means that Artis-Payne is the second back on the squad and should be a starter and a flex/RB3 until Jonathan Stewart returns.
- Bobby Rainey, RB, Giants ($95): Bobby Rainey was brought in prior to the season as a direct backup for Shane Vereen, and that was the role he played in Week 4 with Vereen sidelined as New York split the touches between Rainey, Paul Perkins and Orleans Darkwa. This past Sunday against Green Bay, Rainey had 11 touches (six catches) for 74 total yards, and more importantly he looked the best of the trio. Darkwa (seven) and Perkins (three) had fewer touches combined than Rainey, who also saw the most snaps with the Giants trailing the Packers in the second half. Rainey offers the most upside of the three backs and could see even more work down the road.
- Adam Thielen, WR, Vikings ($95): With Stefon Diggs out in Week 5, the Vikings needed someone to step up as a main target. Tight end Kyle Rudolph saw good coverage from Houston, while Thielen took advantage of Houston being down two corners to get open often and have a very productive afternoon (7-127-1) on eight targets. Thielen has been on the field often for Minnesota, but not so much for his receiving skills. That may change after this performance.
- Colin Kaepernick, QB, 49ers ($93): Kaepernick is back, or so it seems. The Blaine Gabbert scramble-fest seems to be over for Chip Kelly, and Kaepernick should be starting again starting this week at Buffalo. Therein lies the problem – a road game in Buffalo on a bad team. If you need a QB2 or a bye week replacement, Kaepernick is in play, but his production could be severely limited.
- Jamison Crowder, WR, Washington ($89): It feels like I keep talking about Crowder every week, but he keeps on putting up respectable numbers. This week he found the end zone in a different way on a 85-yard punt return that made his 3-35 receiving much more fantasy relevant. If you get return yards and scores, go get Crowder, but even if you don’t, he is a WR3/flex option when you factor in bye weeks.
- Davante Adams, WR, Packers ($88): Adams is such a tempting pickup, because all the tools are there for success – strong offense and quarterback, talent and playing time even as the third wide receiver. Yet Adams cannot produce consistently enough, so he is barely worth a bench spot, even with his big game in Week 5 (5-85-1) against a bad Giants defense. The upside is there and you can use him as a bye week hope and prayer player, but not much more.
- Brett Perriman, WR, Ravens ($87): Here is a sneaky pickup to grab if you have a deep bench. Perriman only officially caught two of his five targets for just 11 yards, but he nearly toe-tapped a win for the Ravens in the final minute. A leaping catch that was overturned on replay cost Perriman the score, but it is a sign for me that bigger and better things are ahead for Perriman, especially if Steve Smith (ankle) misses any time.
- Devontae Booker, RB, Broncos ($85, $170 if you own C.J. Anderson): A few weeks ago, I wrote that C.J. Anderson looks to be one of the best (if not THE best) running backs in the NFL and fantasy this year. I also warned that If you did not have his direct backup as insurance if you own Anderson, fix that right away, or get his handcuff. Well, right now Anderson is laboring, and Booker is looking like he has fresher legs. Week 5 nearly proved that true with Booker (59 yards on 10 touches) gaining just three fewer yards than Anderson (62) on three fewer touches. That is alarming, but clearly a sign to go out and get Booker.
- Kenneth Dixon, RB, Ravens ($82): Dixon finally got into a game in Week 5, but he was not very productive (five yards on four touches) against Washington. He was also wearing a big, bulky knee brace, but if he starts to feel better later in the year, Dixon could still pass Terrance West on the depth chart. Dixon is a speculative add with some big upside here.
- James White, RB, Patriots ($81): Tom Brady was back in the saddle for New England, and all of his supporting cast that saw regular action saw a bump in value. White was productive on limited carries (5-26) and receptions (4-63), quietly having a respectable performance. White offers some flex appeal during bye weeks until Dion Lewis gets healthy.
- Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Vikings ($77): Things are starting to come together for Cordarrelle Patterson to be a fantasy factor again. Patterson had a strong Week 4 against the Giants on Monday Night Football last week, but he was even a bigger part of the game plan against Houston with Stefon Diggs (groin) out. Now is the right time to stash Patterson, with Minnesota on a bye in Week 6 and probably no one else considering adding him to their team.
- Jay Ajayi, RB, Dolphins ($76): First, the good news. Miami seems to have picked a starting running back here, as Ajayi had 13 carries. Now the bad news. Ajayi had just 42 yards, Miami is not very good (so the run game often gets abandoned in the second half) and Arian Foster could be back as soon as this week. Consider adding someone with more upside.
- James Starks, RB, Packers ($75): Eddie Lacy was sidelined with an ankle issue in Week 5, which opened the door (again) for Starks, who has been a starter for Green Bay in the past. Starks stepped up again, both as a rusher (12-33) and a receiver (3-19). He is just a handcuff for Lacy as before, as Lacy said he will be ready for Week 6, but the time is coming where Starks owners will be able to plug him in with Lacy banged up.
- Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Buccaneers ($74): Rodgers had a great fill-in start in Week 5, rushing for 101 yards and converting six targets into a 5-28 receiving night against Carolina. Rodgers will go back to his understudy role for Doug Martin after the Week 6 bye, so only pick him up to back up Martin at this point.
- Chris Thompson, RB, Washington ($65): Washington is really running Matt Jones as the feature back, but he is not producing with regularity. Thompson comes in as the passing down back (4-33 receiving in Week 5 against Baltimore), and offers some value in deep PPR leagues in addition to some handcuff value for Jones.
- Eddie Royal, WR, Bears ($63): I am not giving up on Royal’s value just yet. The Bears passed for almost 400 yards in Week 5, and they need all the receivers that they can get. Even if Cameron Meredith starts and sees a lot of targets, there is plenty left over for Royal to be a viable WR3. Royal could not practice last week, so he could see more snaps than Meredith, especially since the rookie had two fumbles against the Colts.
- Brandon LaFell, WR, Bengals ($61): LaFell’s numbers from Week 5 (8-68-2 on 11 targets) screams both “add me” and “fool’s gold” all at one. On the one hand, LaFell is getting more chances than any other wide receiver after A.J. Green, but most of his production came late in the 28-14 loss to Dallas with the outcome already decided. In deep leagues he might be worth adding, but this could easily be his fantasy peak this year.
- Crockett Gillmore, TE, Ravens ($57, $71 in TE PPR-bonus leagues): Do not get too excited in seeking out the second tight end in Baltimore. Dennis Pitta still had more targets (8 vs. 7) and yards (59 vs. 28) than Gillmore, but the touchdown battle went to Gillmore on a nice catch over the middle. Gillmore is only worth adding in very deep tight end leagues.
- Andre Ellington, RB, Cardinals ($56): Looks like we have our understudy for David Johnson established. Ellington, the former starter, had six carries for 19 yards to spell Johnson, so if anything were to happen to him – well, have your handcuff, just in case.
- Dion Lewis, RB, Patriots ($27): Anyone remember him? Placed on the IR before Week 1, Lewis is getting healthier and is eligible to play starting in Week 7. Considering his ADP back on August 29th (which was even higher on August 1st), Lewis is definitely stashing on your roster (and on IR, if you have it).
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.