It has been quite a long time since I produced a Hot Reads column here at Footballguys, but I felt like I had a few things to share this week and could not find the right place to express them. So, I thought about it and remembered that I used to produce this weekly column where I shared my own two (or three, or five) cents worth of opinions with those of you who so kindly decided to read my column. So I did some searching and found this link, and I got all nostalgic about it. Seven years ago I wrote this column? Wow, how time flies. So in tribute to my thirtysomething self, here is a flashback kickoff for my thoughts on this week.
Welcome to "Hot Reads", a flashback to a column I started way back in 2008 here at Footballguys.com. The general purpose of this column will be to collect some of my thoughts and observations throughout the NFL season as we go along - from waiver wire comments, how to get the most out of the Footballguys site, or anything else football related that comes to mind. It will mostly be a free-flowing, stream of consciousness - that means that there's no predicting what I might talk about in a given week. So....welcome to my world.....
State of the NFL – Through Week 7
For the first time ever, five teams are 6-0 at the start of the regular season. Two clubs from the NFC (Carolina, Green Bay) and three more squads from the AFC (New England, Cincinnati and Denver). Interestingly enough, all five of them have had their bye weeks now and these teams are on direct collision courses with one another over the month of November. Sunday Night Football gets the party started right on November 1st (this coming Sunday) with Green Bay taking on Denver. The Packers then face the Panthers the following week, and Denver faces the Patriots on November 29th. The last of the clashes between these five clubs occurs on December 28th, when the Bengals visit Denver for the final Monday Night Football contest of 2015 in Week 16. As you can probably tell from that list, that’s a pretty rough schedule ahead for the Broncos, so it is a great benefit for Denver to have started the season at 6-0.
So what about the rest of the league? Great question. With five teams at 6-0, there are clearly impacts to the other 27 teams who seem to be scrounging for the other seven playoff berths for January. Odds are that the 6-0 teams are all going to the postseason, and I did a little research as to their chances of getting to the playoffs. All five teams have at least a 97% chance of reaching the postseason according to sportsclubstats.com, so that is good enough for me to consider them locks for the playoffs. So let’s look at the rest of the league. With all but one other team having two losses or more, there is going to be quite the battle for the Wild Card spots this year. As it stands today, Atlanta at 6-1 would get in as the top NFC Wild Card and then the second spot would go to Minnesota. Atlanta and Carolina still have two games against each other, however, so the NFC South is far from decided. The 4-2 Vikings have plenty of tough competition down the line, and there are five other teams with three wins that are going to be in that hunt for the last spot, and possibly more.
That’s exactly the point I was trying to make earlier. Before I go into the AFC playoff picture – which is a jumbled mess after the Top 3-4 teams – the fact that five teams are 6-0 means that there is a large group of teams with four, three or even only two wins that all believe that they have a realistic shot at a playoff push, and most of them are right to believe just that. As we have seen with the Eliminator / Survivor Pools this year, picking winners each week has not been easy, and surprise winners and losers happen every week. With two divisions (NFC East, AFC South) lacking a clear favorite with a strong record, all of the playoff push drama is likely to be for those two Wild Cards as we enter November and December.
Three teams – Baltimore, Detroit and Tennessee – have only one win, but Baltimore at 1-6 got a lot of attention this past Monday night when my favorite bad stat of last week was shared with a nationwide audience. The Ravens have had their first six games decided by six points or fewer, and after Monday night’s 26-18 loss to Arizona, now that stat becomes “seven games within one possession”. Give me a break. The Ravens are good at coming back on the scoreboard, but that’s about it. They are really one good Pittsburgh kicker away from being 0-7. Baltimore has lots of problems on both sides of the ball yet they are still only a few games away from being in playoff position. Laugh at it if you want, but Baltimore – arguably the worst in the AFC – is just 2.5 games back of the Steelers (as the Ravens own the tiebreaker). The Ravens have had a very difficult schedule for their first seven contests with five road games and four trips out West. If they can find a way to right their ship quickly, they are not out of the hunt – which just goes to show that any AFC team can make a similar argument.
Sucker Waiver Wire WeeK
As some of you know, I write a weekly waiver wire article (“Money Talks”) where I give a relative value for each waiver wire pickup for the week. Well, this week feels like a giant trap in which many fantasy team owners are going to step right into if they are not careful. Arian Foster got hurt, so the natural thought is to go after his backup. Well, both Alfred Blue and Chris Polk are really not worth adding as they are not that great and both of them are likely to split the backfield. Nate Washington is the better pickup as he should see more targets in a Houston offense that is very likely to throw the ball 70-75% of the time going forward. Brian Hoyer is also a great addition for similar reasons.
So what if you want to add a running back, and Houston looks like the best option? Consider David Cobb in Tennessee. The Titans ground game is a mess right now, and Cobb is eligible to play as of Week 9. The Titans have nothing to play for really at that point, so watch them give the starting job to Cobb sooner rather than later. That’s the pickup I would make.
The other sucker pickup of the week is chasing Danny Amendola’s production. Clearly Stefon Diggs is a better add overall, but the smart pick if you want a New England receiver is Brandon LaFell. He only had two catches and 25 yards in his return last week, but he saw eight targets from Tom Brady, and if that holds up then LaFell will soon start posting a 6-90-1 type stat line.
PARTING THOUGHT
I was really hoping that we would get a treat (or is it a trick?) this week by Chicago donning their throwback to to 1930s pumpkin-like uniforms for November 1st. No such luck as I checked their uniform schedule (I didn’t even know teams had those, who knew?), but I did find a link to the concept jersey that looks frighteningly similar to the 1936 jerseys that were so loud that apparently fans booed them back in the day. How times change. Oh well. I’m sure Chicago fans will have something else to boo about soon enough (sorry Bears fans).
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.