The FPC - Special Considerations for 2016

Photo: Kim Klement, USA Today Sports

Footballguys continues to advance the world of fantasy football. With several additions to their offerings last year, the much heralded Best Online Content Site for 2009 joined the world of High Stakes Fantasy contests and made an instant splash. Joe Bryant and David Dodds teamed with David Gerczak and Alex Kaganovsky of the Fantasy Football Players Championship (myffpc.com) to create the first annual Footballguys Players Championship contest in 2010 and by all measures it was a huge success. Now the FPC and FFPC are back again for another season, ready to knock it out of the park once again in 2016.

I have published quite a number of articles about the FPC and the FFPC, but some special considerations are in play this year.  Let's take a look at a few key individuals and what their circumstances mean for 2016:

TAKING A FEW WEEKS OFF

A few NFL players are going to have to enjoy a "forced vacation" this year, thanks to an NFL suspension.  LeVeon Bell (three games), Tom Brady (four) and Josh Gordon (four) are the top players in this category.  Normally all three of them would all be easily in the Top 50-75 players drafted, but missing several games can change that perception.  The question is, how far is too far for these top performing players to slide down the draft list in your FPC/FFPC draft?

Let's start with a quick look at the latest FPC/FFPC ADP data.  Tom Brady is going off the board as QB7 and overall pick #102 on average.  Josh Gordon (ADP of 85 overall) is higher on the list, with both players significantly trailing LeVeon Bell (RB3, ADP11). It is rather clear that FPC/FFPC drafters are not worried about missing Bell for a few games, and they will certainly be drafting for more running back depth to compensate for those first three games.  Options abound for covering for Bell - there is the PPR RB2BC that I outlined for general drafts but also applies to the FPC, or owners can go after Bell's clear understudy in DeAngelo Williams who will be the starter for those first three games.  Williams' ADP of 81st overall (RB29) puts him in the middle to end of Round 7, a viable alternative for depth behind Bell owners who take Bell near the end of Round 1 (or, if lucky, early in Round 2).  Consider Williams as reasonable Bell insurance and a commitment pick that Bell drafters must plan for in their drafts.  The last note regarding Bell and the minimal discount to his ADP with a three game suspension - only two starting running backs are truly required for the FPC, so drafting three backs in the first 7-8 rounds and not having Bell for three weeks is not as big a deal given the dual flex rule that allows for wide receivers and/or tight ends to round out the starting lineup.

Now back to Tom Brady, who is slated to be the seventh quarterback off the board but way out in the middle of Round 9.  Now, as experienced drafters in the FPC/FFPC format understand, quarterbacks have less value than the other skill positions (RB, WR and TE).  A starting lineup requires seven of these players (2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 flex of any combination), so the majority of the focus of the draft goes towards those three roster positions in the first eight rounds.  Looking back again at the ADP list, it takes until Round 13 for the first backup quarterback (QB13) to go off the board.  All of this is wonderful information, but is Brady worth the QB7 spot overall in the ADP list?

When I started looking at several committee approaches this year, I also looked at Brady and how he would mesh with any other QB2 (QB13 or later), and what the resultant combination would look like.  The results were pretty startling to me:

Table 1:  Tom Brady and Several QB2 Combinations - Projected Points

Table 2:  Top 7 QB Projected Points

So what that tells me is that a combination of Brady and most any reasonable choice at QB2 can produce 345-353 fantasy points, which is roughly equivalent to Drew Brees (QB5, 330.3 points) and a reasonable bye week filler quarterback for Brees (15-18 points, or a rough total of 345.3-348.3 points).  That puts the true value of Brady at QB6, ahead of Ben Roethlisberger - and the added bonus of having Tom Brady as your starting quarterback for the playoff run.

Finally, our most interesting player is Josh Gordon, languishing at WR38 and an overall ADP of 85.  As I pointed out in the PPR WR3BC article, he is vastly undervalued in most typical leagues, but there are special circumstances that make the pick of Josh Gordon, or any of his teammates, even less desirable in the FPC and FFPC.  That leads me to my final topic: 

THe WEEk 13 BYE TraP

As I pointed out in my FPC/FFPC series, every fantasy league and its rulebook are a little different. For the FPC and the FFPC, Week 13 has more weight as it is the League Championship week for the contests.  Now, it is possible for a team to make it to the League Championship game as either the third or fourth seed and not be automatically in the Championship round - which makes Week 13 immensely important as every league winner gets in.  So each owner has to determine how much weight to put on the fact that two teams have byes in Week 13 - Cleveland and Tennessee.

Here are the players likely to be drafted in the FPC that will be impacted by the Week 13 bye:

Table 3:  Week 13 Bye Week Players and Associated ADPs

Taking away that tight ends go earlier in FPC/FFPC format that normal PPR leagues, it looks like the bye weeks are either not being accounted for or not given much worth or worry by FPC drafters.  Josh Gordon's ADP is exactly the same in the FPC as in PPR leagues, even with the Week 13 bye week issue.

So how would I personally handle it?  I would draft as normal, but put a note by any Brown or Titan player to be mindful of this issue.  If I wind up with a Duke Johnson or Josh Gordon on my roster, I better have sufficient depth to roll out and cover for his Championship bye game.  I would not necessarily push him down my board, but that note may make me adjust my valuation of Johnson or Gordon.  If I have Gordon highly rated (I do) and view him as a value at WR38 (also yes for me) then I do not hesitate taking him at WR38 in my draft.  Duke Johnson may slide down my projections 1-2 spots, but I am not taking him off my board because of this concern.  FPC teams typically require depth, and a one-game decision does not impact overall roster construction.

PARTING THOUGHTS

Every fantasy league and its rulebook are a little different. For the FPC and the FFPC, the bye weeks happen to have an interesting twist of an impact to Week 13, League Championship week.  While I would want to win my league, I also want the best possible team to win even bigger prizes in the Championship Round (Weeks 14-16), and having studs I drafted on the cheap like Tom Brady and Josh Gordon could lead me to a big, big payday at the end of the season. .

It takes a little time to get your mind wrapped around a new contest with a new set of rules, but the time spent is often well worth it if the goal is to field a competitive team. Giving a little bit of effort to get a greater understanding of the twists and turns to the rulebook can give turn a good fantasy player into a great one and a great player into a dominant force. Knowledge is power - so be as powerful as you can!

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

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