Good-Byes

Photo: USA Today Sports

I'll share a little something about myself today. I'm not exactly a conventional thinker. That's sometimes good, often times bad, but there are enough "Aha" moments where you have a revelation that might be just enough to say that all the oddball ideas that pop in your head are worth it if you can have one of those thoughts that pays off. Whether this is one of those moments is yet to be decided, but I think there is some hope.

First off, I'll set the stage for the discussion. When the NFL announced their 2014 season, we all poured over it and looked for fantasy implications. The first thing that jumped off the page was the bye weeks, as usual. Most Keeper League and Dynasty League players love to check that first so as to see if they have bye week issues in store for the coming season. That's when it dawned on myself and several others that the NFL hates us at times - no really, they do. Trust me. Otherwise, how could they not understand that these weeks where six teams have a bye week just wreak havoc with our fantasy teams?

The six teams off in one week started the first year of NBC's flex scheduling (2006), as the NFL wanted to adjust the bye weeks so that they would be done and gone by Week 11 and also so as to not have a team with a week off before Week 4. The net result of that simple math was that instead of eight weeks with four teams on a bye, the NFL would have two weeks where six teams took time off. In 2009 it got even worse as in Weeks 7, 8 and 9 six teams had a bye week (and as a result only two were off in Week 10). I guess you can consider it to be good news that “only” Weeks 8 and 9 in 2010 had six teams on a bye.  As for this 2012, only Week 7 had six teams off, but byes ran from Week 4 to Week 11 (with just two teams on a bye in Week 4).  For 2013, it only got more complicated as the byes extended to Week 12, with four weeks of just two teams on a bye (Weeks 4, 6, 7 and 11), three weeks with four teams on a bye (Weeks 5, 10 and 12) and still two other weeks with six teams off (Weeks 8 and 9).  Last year the bye weeks extend once again to Week 12, leading to some weeks where just two teams are on a bye week (Weeks 5, 6, 7, 8 and 12), another with four teams off (Week 11), and three treacherous weeks (Weeks 4, 9 and 10) with six teams taking a rest. Enough history - what about this season?  Byes extend from Week 4 to Week 11 once again, with all of those weeks having four teams off except for Week 4 (two teams, Tennessee and New England) and Week 9 (six teams - Houston, Seattle, Arizona, Baltimore, Detroit and Kansas City).  

All those byes made me think about the common question we have every year about bye weeks. Does it make good sense to collect players with the same bye weeks so as to have your team at full strength all the other games rather than patching your team for seven weeks during the year?

At first I didn't like the idea, since you are basically writing off a week on your schedule. Walking into a 13-game schedule at 0-1 already is not a great idea in my book. It gets even worse if you are in a league with fewer games or that punishes exceptionally bad performance weeks (such as the "All Play" format where you play everyone every week). All that aside, I thought I would at least see if I could come up with a recipe to do just the thing that people asked for - draft a team with all the same bye weeks.

I decided I would use three rules:

1. Focus on a complete starting lineup (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR and a TE)
2. The lineup had to be complete by Round 10 (Pick 120)
3. No reach picks

By Rule #3 I mean that if you wanted to accomplish #1 and #2 but you had to draft a player in Round 5 that normally is still available in Rounds 6 or 7, that's off the table. We're not going to blow up our entire draft board just to get this together.

Next I decided to get all of the Top 120 picks based on recent ADP and sort them by Bye Weeks. Here is what I found:

Table 1: Top 120 Players By ADP, Sorted By Bye Weeks

Next I took a look at the positional breakdown for each Week's players:

Table 2: Bye Weeks vs. Positions

After reviewing Table 2 I decided to eliminate Weeks 8, 10 and 11 (no quarterback in Week 8, no tight end in Weeks 10 and 11).  Remember, I'm not reaching for a TE2 or QB2 or a committee to make this happen. After those weeks were eliminated I noticed that it does seem possible to pull this off if everything goes correctly, but much will depend on what draft pick you have to start and also how things start to shake out in the draft. Week 4 is still pretty thin, but I will go over it just in case you like this idea and see your draft heading towards selecting 5-6 of these players.  

First, let’s start with Week 4.   With only eight players from Tennessee and New England, this is a pretty thin group from which to choose.  If you like the prospects for the Patriots, however, this might be a decent option - especially if Rob Gronkowski falls in your lap in Round 1.  After the first pick, you will have to be very selective in what players you choose until Round 5, when Julian Edelman should be selected.  If you take Gronkowski and Edelman, targeting LeGarrette Blount in Round 7 and Tom Brady in Round 8 seems like the plan.  The Titans are not getting much love with only three players in the Top 120 and all of them (Bishop Sankey, Delanie Walker and Kendall Wright) all outside of the first 100 players.  Here is a chart of these players in a round-by-round breakdown by position (RB in red, WR in green, QB in blue, TE in purple):

Table 3: Players with Week 4 Byes

Now let’s look at Week 5 players.  Here we have even more options (14 players), and you better have a reasonably early pick to secure Adrian Peterson.  If that happens, you might want to remember this next table:

Table 4: Players with Week 5 Byes

I would consider this plan if I started with Peterson and really like the Carolina or Miami offenses.  If you like Carolina, consider getting Greg Olsen and Cam Newton in Rounds 5 and 6.  That's a lot invested in one team, so a better plan could be Lamar Miller in Round 3.  Be careful taking too many players from a single team here as I do not think Carolina is a juggernaut offense.  Spreading the wealth between Miami and Carolina sounds much better, so taking Peterson, Miller, Olsen and Newton gives a solid balance.  Mike Wallace, Charles Johnson and Eric Decker offer more wide receiver options later. 

Now let's look quickly at Week 6:

Table 5: Players with Week 6 Byes

This has to be considered the "Dallas Plan", as Dez Bryant leads off Round 1.  Mike Evans would make for a strong WR2, and then targeting Joseph Randle, Tony Romo and Jason Witten builds the rest of the team here.  Just like in the Week 5 discussion, going after too many players on one team can be dangerous, but the Dallas offense should produce a ton of production this year.  Other options do exist with either Todd Gurley or Latavius Murray instead of Randle, but Randle has a ton of upside.  Witten and Romo are the only viable tight end and quarterback, so you must love the Cowboys to try this strategy.   

Now we take a look at Week 7:

Table 6: Players with Week 7 Byes

This is one of the more robust plans at the top of the draft, as there are three players in Round 1 (Eddie Lacy, Matt Forte and Demaryius Thomas) with six options in Round 2.  A RB/WR, WR/WR or even a WR/RB start could give you two players with Week 7 off, and then you can start looking at Emmanuel Sanders, Peyton Manning and Martellus Bennett.  Getting Manning and Bennett gives you the QB and TE options you need, so the players after Round 5 are just bonus to continue that plan if you so choose.  This is not a bad choice at all, but not my favorite.

Speaking of the best option, let's talk Week 9:   

Table 7: Players with Week 9 Byes

Here is Week 9, with six teams off - which gives us the most players (24) to consider with this unique strategy.  Both Russell Wilson (Round 4) and Matthew Stafford (Round 7) offer two quarterback options, and Jimmy Graham (Round 3) and Travis Kelce (Round 5) gives us two tight ends to target.  The best draft spot would be an early pick so you can get Jamaal Charles in Round 1, Justin Forsett in Round 2 and Jimmy Graham in Round 3.  Alternatively, if Graham does not make it back to the 2-3 turn,Travis Kelce should be there late in Round 4.  Plenty of wide recievers and running backs are available in late rounds, but Matthew Stafford (6-7 turn) is the likely quarterback for this strategy as Russell Wilson should not get back to the 4-5 turn.  With lots of players on good offenses, this is my favorite of all the possible options to consolidate players with the same bye week.

If your draft goes a certain way and you start to collect players with the same bye week, do not freak out.  Just remember this article and think about compounding the "problem" by building a team that will be 100% full when other teams have bye weeks affecting their lineups.  There are a number of ways to try this out and make it a successful draft, but remember my earlier warnings about planning for a loss in your fantasy season. Good luck.

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

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