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Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
It was a good week, but it was Oh-So-Close to being a ridiculously fantastic week. Had Atlanta beaten Tampa Bay, all of the big teasers would have hit and my Best Bets would have gone from a solid 15-12 to a crazy 56-7 – so yeah, not a Falcons fan after that. But then again, had they won, I might be on a beach somewhere and not writing this column, so it was to your benefit, right? Hopefully you did well in Week 8, but as we all know, we are only as good as our next set of picks. Let’s keep that good momentum going for Week 9. Let’s get started:
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
Bye week teams: Detroit, Kansas City, Arizona, Houston, Seattle, Baltimore
Teams returning from a bye: Jacksonville, Buffalo, Washington, Philadelphia
(Thursday) CINCINNATI (-10.5) vs. CLEVELAND
National television audience time for the Bengals, who are consistently overlooked and overshadowed as one of the contenders in the AFC. New England and Denver may be stealing the attention, but the Bengals have Thursday night all to themselves, except for a pesky Cleveland team that is going to probably be starting Johnny Manziel at quarterback. Look out, Johnny – here comes the Bengals blitzing you all night. Bengals by a lot, something like 34-10. PICK: Bengals
CAROLINA (+2.5) vs. GREEN BAY
This is likely the best game of the week, at least on paper. The 7-0 Panthers host the now 6-1 Packers in a game that will go a long way in determining the NFC playoffs and seeding, and many will view this as a chance for the Packers to get back on the winning track after a rough time of it in Denver. Carolina struggled to close out Indianapolis in a monsoon for most of Monday Night Football, and were lucky to hold on to a victory at times during a wild fourth quarter and overtime. That means most people will be on the Packers this week, but I think that is a mistake. Carolina is getting points at home and are undefeated, and they have the best matchup in their run game against Green Bay’s biggest defensive weakness. Carolina’s defense can hold against Aaron Rodgers just like Denver did, and I think the Panthers get the “upset” win here, 27-24. PICK: Panthers
NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) vs. WASHINGTON
How can you give two touchdowns to an NFL team? Easy – when the favorite are the Patriots, who are on a mission to seek and destroy this year. Washington had a big comeback win two weeks ago and enjoyed a bye, but that will still not be enough time to be able to hold down Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski for 60 minutes. I will take the Patriots for another big win. PICK: Patriots
NEW ORLEANS (-8) vs. TENNESSEE
The Titans are winning the battle in the “which team is the hottest mess” category, but at least they are making moves in the right direction by changing their head coach. The problem is that they cannot right this ship that quickly, and facing Drew Brees after seven touchdown passes is not a great recipe even for a stable team. I like New Orleans to win in the Big Easy by a big margin of at least 10 points. PICK: Saints
MIAMI (+3) at BUFFALO
I thought Miami might actually be a favorite here as they have had more than a week off and they have looked good before the New England game since their coaching change. The Bills are hurting at wide receiver of late and I do not trust their offense overall – plus they commit far too many penalties. Miami is at 3-4 and a win here gets them out of the basement of the AFC East at 4-4 and possibly tied with the Jets for second. This game should be close, so I will gladly take the points. PICK: Dolphins
ST. LOUIS (+3.5) at MINNESOTA
The Rams are running the ball very well and playing solid defense, while the Vikings have not gotten on track on offense yet. They are not consistent enough for me to rely on them, but then again, so are the Rams. I like Gurley and Austin plus the St. Louis defense a little more here, and points, so that’s my call. PICK: Rams
JACKSONVILLE (+6) at NEW YORK JETS
As I write this, it is unclear who will be the starter for the Jets at quarterback, and that is wreaking havoc with the lines on this game. I have seen anywhere from +2.5 to +6 for the Jaguars, but I like Jacksonville overall to take on the Jets with a full head of steam after a week off and possibly pull the upset. Getting points is a nice bonus, so give me as many as you can. PICK: Jaguars
OAKLAND (+5) at PITTSBURGH
When I look at team ratings, I am consistently amazed at how high the marks are for Pittsburgh. They had quarterback issues for a month and the defense has not been solid, and now they are without LeVeon Bell for the rest of the year. Oakland is better than most people realize and they are more than capable of not just covering here but winning this game. I will happily take the Raiders and points in this one. PICK: Raiders
TAMPA BAY (+2.5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
The Giants just gave up 52 points, Tampa Bay pulled an upset over Atlanta, and the Buccaneers are getting points at home? Really? Sign me up. New York is getting vastly overrated here, and Tampa Bay underrated. PICK: Buccaneers
ATLANTA (-7) at SAN FRANCISCO
The Falcons are angry (as are their fans, and those who (ahem) picked them last week), and the 49ers are the unfortunate next team up for Atlanta on the schedule. Trades (Vernon Davis, gone), signings (Pierre Thomas, good luck) and quarterback changes aside, San Francisco is still terrible. The over/under on this game should be at 2.5 for San Francisco, as they may not score this week, as that offense is beyond struggling. Now, I do like Blaine Gabbert some, but not in this spot. PICK: Falcons
DENVER (-4.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
Denver not only improved to 7-0 with a big win over Green Bay, they did it in very convincing fashion. The Colts may be in first place but they are a mess right now. Indianapolis just fired their offensive coordinator but it may be too little too late. Hosting Denver on a short week after a tough loss to Carolina does not make for an easy schedule. I like Denver to win as Peyton Manning will want to get the victory in his former starting town. PICK: Broncos
PHILADELPHIA (-2.5) at DALLAS
Chip Kelly had two weeks to get ready for this one, and a win here puts the Eagles back in charge in the NFC East. With no Tony Romo and no touchdowns last week, I am picking for the Eagles almost as much as I am picking against the Cowboys. PICK: Eagles
(Monday) CHICAGO (+4) at SAN DIEGO
This game has all the makings of a shootout between two defensively weak teams. San Diego has lost Keenan Allen for the year and the Bears will be without Matt Forte in this one, but the backups are just as likely to put up big games in a high scoring contest. Give me Chicago and the points as they should be able to stay within a touchdown either way as we wrap up Week 9. PICK: Bears
Best Bets
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- NEW ORLEANS (-8) vs. TENNESSEE
- MIAMI (+3) at BUFFALO
- JACKSONVILLE (+6) at NEW YORK JETS
- OAKLAND (+5) at PITTSBURGH
- TAMPA BAY (+2.5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
- PHILADELPHIA (-2.5) at DALLAS
- (Monday) CHICAGO (+4) at SAN DIEGO
- 6-POINT TEASER: JACKSONVILLE (+12) at NEW YORK JETS (OVER 34)
- MIAMI “FOR THE WIN” (+145) at BUFFALO
- OAKLAND “FOR THE WIN” (+190) at PITTSBURGH
- (Monday) CHICAGO “FOR THE WIN” (+175) at SAN DIEGO
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (9-5 ODDS):
- ATLANTA (-1) at SAN FRANCISCO
- DENVER (+1.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
- NEW ORLEANS (-2) vs. TENNESSEE
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS):
- ATLANTA (-1) at SAN FRANCISCO
- DENVER (+1.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
- NEW ORLEANS (-2) vs. TENNESSEE
- PHILADELPHIA (+3.5) at DALLAS
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
- ATLANTA (-1) at SAN FRANCISCO
- DENVER (+1.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
- NEW ORLEANS (-2) vs. TENNESSEE
- PHILADELPHIA (+3.5) at DALLAS
- (Thursday) CINCINNATI (-4.5) vs. CLEVELAND
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- CAROLINA (+2.5) vs. GREEN BAY
- ATLANTA (-7) at SAN FRANCISCO
- DENVER (-4.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
- 6-POINT TEASER: (Thursday) CINCINNATI (-4.5) vs. CLEVELAND (UNDER 52)
- 6-POINT TEASER: OAKLAND (+11) at PITTSBURGH (OVER 41.5)
- 6-POINT TEASER: TAMPA BAY (+8.5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS (OVER 41.5)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 6-POINT TEASER: ATLANTA (-1) at SAN FRANCISCO (UNDER 51)
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER:
- ATLANTA (-1) at SAN FRANCISCO
- DENVER (+1.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
PICKS OF THE WEEK: Panthers, Dolphins, Jaguars, Raiders, Buccaneers, Falcons, Broncos, Eagles, Bears
Results
Last Week
- OVERALL: 9-5 (64.3%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 15-12 (55.6%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 6-3 (66.7%)
Season
- OVERALL: 63-54-2 (53.8%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 58.8-75-1 (43.9%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 24-27-1 (47.1%)
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
