Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Finally, a good week. I went 8-6 overall to bring my record above the Las Vegas line for winning (52.3%, I am 52.7%) but I hit on all my teasers to have a great Best Bet week at 15-6. Let’s keep that truck rolling for Week 8. Let’s get started:
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
Bye week teams: Jacksonville, Buffalo, Washington, Philadelphia
Teams returning from a bye: Cincinnati, Chicago, Green Bay, Denver
(Thursday) NEW ENGLAND (-8) vs. MIAMI
The Miami Dolphins just scored 44 points last week, 35 of which were within a blink of an eye in the first half. This is a divisional game on a short week, so scores should be down. The Patriots are struggling to find a ground game. Miami is getting more than a touchdown. If you are reading into all of that as reasons to take the Dolphins, congratulations – you have fallen into Las Vegas’s biggest trap for Week 8. Based on the math that I have, New England should not be favored by eight or nine points – actually, it should be 11. That’s right – “All the way to 11.” Taking New England is the sharp thing to do, and that’s exactly what I am doing here. Patriots win another big AFC East clash, 34-24. PICK: Patriots
DETROIT (+4.5) “at” Kansas City (in London, England)
The third and final installment of NFL football in London, England takes place this weekend with the Chiefs the virtual host for the Lions in Week 8. I am having some tough times deciding who to go with in this one, as both teams are struggling on the year and have been bitten by the injury bugs. I will take the Lions and the points mostly because I like that they did not wait to change their offensive coordinator until after this game and the bye week – they had seen enough. I’ll take the points here on the neutral site and hope Detroit plays Kansas City close, but overall I am staying away from this contest. PICK: Lions
ATLANTA (-7) vs. TAMPA BAY
Atlanta has to be wondering how they only scored 10 points against Tennessee last week, and I bet that they are looking to amp up their offense against Tampa Bay here in Week 8. The Falcons somehow won 10-7 last week, but they know that they will need more points against a Buccaneer team that is starting to come around. This is a big game for Atlanta in the NFC South as they are trying to stay close to the 6-0 Panthers until they square off twice later this year. While I do like Tampa Bay’s offense, Atlanta’s defense showed me that they can win a game when needed and that points to a very complete Falcons team. Throw in that Tampa Bay allowed Washington to come back from a 24-0 deficit last week and that seals the deal for me. Give me Atlanta and I expect them to score a lot this week. Falcons 34, Buccaneers 17. PICK: Falcons
ARIZONA (-4.5) at CLEVELAND
I was prepared to give up to seven points to take Arizona this week at Cleveland. The Cardinals are on a short week and do play early on Sunday, and their top strength (passing) does not exactly fit the weakness (rushing) of the Browns, but Carson Palmer and Chris Johnson will make due. Remember that Arizona has not one but three good options in the backfield with Chris Johnson, David Johnson, and Andre Ellington. Arizona will fare just fine in Ohio this week. Arizona by double digits. PICK: Cardinals
ST. LOUIS (-8) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Speaking of a West Coast team playing early, do we need even more reasons to pick against the 49ers? They looked absolutely abysmal last Thursday against Seattle as they could not muster any offense, and now they have to go on the road to face one of the best defenses from last week. Yikes. Give me the Rams to run all over the 49ers and win a game that could be a shutout this week. PICK: Rams
NEW YORK GIANTS (+3.5) at NEW ORLEANS
This is another tough game to call. The Saints stormed out in front of the Colts last week to a 27-0 lead and then barely held on for a 27-21 victory. The Giants were in a tough battle with the Cowboys last Sunday afternoon and held on thanks to a kickoff return to put them ahead for good and some turnovers from Matt Cassel. Here is what I think New Orleans will try and do in this one – run the ball all day long. The Giants had been perceived to be tough against the run, but Dallas showed that a good offensive line can move the ball on New York. Darren McFadden had a big day last week and Mark Ingram will try and do the same. If he struggles, Drew Brees is more than capable of matching passing games with Eli Manning. New Orleans gave up a lot of yards and points in the second half last week to Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton, and Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. will look to do the same this week. This game can go a number of ways and Las Vegas sees it as a high scoring affair, so give me the Giants and the points here in what could be a 27-24 type contest. PICK: Giants
MINNESOTA (-1) at CHICAGO
Minnesota got a solid win last week against Detroit while the Bears sat idle for a week after their overtime loss to those same Lions. As an easy first pass at this, the Vikings played Detroit better than the Bears did, so Minnesota should be a favorite here. Since Week 1’s bad loss in San Francisco, only a 3-point loss to Denver keeps Minnesota from winning all the rest of their games. That’s enough for me to take the Vikings, who should easily defeat Chicago and move to 5-2. PICK: Vikings
SAN DIEGO (+3.5) at BALTIMORE
I am tired of hearing how the Ravens have been one score away in all of their six losses this season, and how tough that luck has been for them. Baltimore should make their own luck. What about the luck that gave them their only win as Pittsburgh’s kicker missed not just one but two game-winning field goal attempts? Phillip Rivers is going to slice up this secondary for at least 300 yards and probably more. Chargers by at least a touchdown on the road in what could be the highest scoring game this week. PICK: Chargers
CINCINNATI (-1) at PITTSBURGH
The only thing that could allow the Steelers to play close to the well-rested Bengals is the return of Ben Roethlisberger. Even if he is less than full strength, odds are that Big Ben will be light years ahead of Michael Vick or Landry Jones. It still should not matter for the 6-0 Bengals, who take the short trip to Pittsburgh after a Week 7 bye. I like Cincinnati to make another statement to the rest of the AFC that they are no joke and that the division is not only theirs already but a top seed is within their grasp. PICK: Bengals
HOUSTON (-4) vs. TENNESSEE
Look out Phillip Rivers, because Brian Hoyer may throw the ball 70 times this week against the Titans. While everyone is wondering how the Texans will replace Arian Foster, I believe that Houston will just throw the ball 75% of the time, and considering that the Texans run the fastest offense in the league, 60-70 throws is well within their reach against Tennessee. The Titans are not bad on defense, but the offense is not good and the Titans are counting the days until both Marcus Mariota and David Cobb will be in the same backfield. Sadly for their fans, that will not happen this week. Texans win big in this one with big games from the Houston passing game. PICK: Texans
NEW YORK JETS (-2.5) at OAKLAND
I like what Derek Carr is doing with the Raiders on offense, but he cannot play defense for Oakland and that has been a problem lately. While Oakland can outscore some teams, especially a team like San Diego with a suspect secondary, the Jets are not a team like that and I see New York picking up a solid win on the road here. The Jets were very competitive against the Patriots last week, and that is because they are balanced on offense and have a good defense as well. The Jets have playoff potential, and they have to win games like this on the road to prove that they are just that. I think they get the job done in Oakland this week. PICK: Jets
SEATTLE (-6) at DALLAS
Until Tony Romo returns, just pick against the Cowboys. It is a pretty safe pick doing just that, as Dallas is 0-4 without Romo. Seattle will look to stuff the ground game and force Dallas to throw, something that sounds like a terrible recipe for Cowboy success. Seattle wins this one in Texas by double digits. PICK: Seahawks
GREEN BAY (-3) at DENVER
The Packers have looked like the more dominant 6-0 team than have the Broncos, who were lucky a few times to be undefeated. What is saving Denver is their fantastic defense this season, so that is what this comes down to for me. Can Aaron Rodgers solve the Denver defense? I think he can, and he will officially pass Peyton Manning in the pecking order after his win this Sunday night. PICK: Packers
(Monday) INDIANAPOLIS (+7) at CAROLINA
The Colts defense looked pretty poor against the Saints, but there were some trick plays the Saints pulled and some bad turnovers by Andrew Luck. Carolina is a solid team, but they are not as explosive as Indianapolis. I like the Colts to keep this closer than many might expect, even though I have the Panthers winning and moving to 7-0. PICK: Colts
Best Bets
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- (Thursday) NEW ENGLAND (-8) vs. MIAMI
- ST. LOUIS (-8) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- GREEN BAY (-3) at DENVER
- SEATTLE (-6) at DALLAS
- GREEN BAY at DENVER (OVER 45.5)
- SAN DIEGO (+3.5) at BALTIMORE (OVER 50)
- SAN DIEGO “FOR THE WIN” (+160) at BALTIMORE
- INDIANAPOLIS “FOR THE WIN” (+250) at CAROLINA
- 6-POINT TEASER: MINNESOTA (+5) at CHICAGO (OVER 42.5)
- 6-POINT TEASER: SAN DIEGO (+3.5) at BALTIMORE (OVER 50)
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS):
- ATLANTA (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
- ST. LOUIS (-2) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- SAN DIEGO (+9.5) at BALTIMORE
- CINCINNATI (+5) at PITTSBURGH
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
- ATLANTA (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
- ST. LOUIS (-2) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- SAN DIEGO (+9.5) at BALTIMORE
- CINCINNATI (+5) at PITTSBURGH
- (Thursday) NEW ENGLAND (-2) vs. MIAMI
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (7-1 ODDS):
- ATLANTA (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
- ST. LOUIS (-2) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- SAN DIEGO (+9.5) at BALTIMORE
- CINCINNATI (+5) at PITTSBURGH
- (Thursday) NEW ENGLAND (-2) vs. MIAMI
- MINNESOTA (+5) at CHICAGO
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (11-1 ODDS):
- ATLANTA (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
- ST. LOUIS (-2) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- SAN DIEGO (+9.5) at BALTIMORE
- CINCINNATI (+5) at PITTSBURGH
- (Thursday) NEW ENGLAND (-2) vs. MIAMI
- MINNESOTA (+5) at CHICAGO
- ARIZONA (+1.5) at CLEVELAND
- 8-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (15-1 ODDS):
- ATLANTA (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
- ST. LOUIS (-2) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- SAN DIEGO (+9.5) at BALTIMORE
- CINCINNATI (+5) at PITTSBURGH
- (Thursday) NEW ENGLAND (-2) vs. MIAMI
- MINNESOTA (+5) at CHICAGO
- ARIZONA (+1.5) at CLEVELAND
- SEATTLE (EVEN) at DALLAS
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- ATLANTA (-7) vs. TAMPA BAY
- ARIZONA (-4.5) at CLEVELAND
- MINNESOTA (-1) at CHICAGO
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- SAN DIEGO (+3.5) at BALTIMORE
- CINCINNATI (-1) at PITTSBURGH
PICKS OF THE WEEK: Patriots, Falcons, Cardinals, Vikings, Chargers, Bengals, Seahawks, Packers, Colts
Results
Last Week
- OVERALL: 8-6 (57.1%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 15-6 (71.4%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 3-2 (60%)
Season
- OVERALL: 54-49-2 (52.4%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 43.8-63-1 (41.0%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 18-24-1 (42.9%)
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.