Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season. Let's get started with Week 1, which can be a difficult week to make choices. If you have been on top of the NFL to this point and all through preseason, this might afford you a good advantage and help you to get off to a fast start. Hopefully this will be the case this year.
Week 4 started so well, but after 4PM Eastern all the games failed to go my way. Sometimes it is better not to count your chickens before they are hatched. I looked back at the late games and I had the right teams winning for the most part, just not the number right. Not much I can do at this point but press on. Four teams are off this week, so let’s take a look at the 14 games on the Week 5 slate. Let’s get started:
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
Bye week teams: Miami, New York Jets, Carolina, Minnesota
Teams returning from a bye: New England, Tennessee
(Thursday) INDIANAPOLIS (-1) at HOUSTON
Two teams with quarterback issues, but that’s way too much of an oversimplification. Andrew Luck returns to action after shoulder concerns, while the Texans cannot decide between cauliflower and asparagus…I mean, Ryan Mallett and Brian Hoyer. Another divisional game, another short week. With Luck getting rest and coming off of a big win against Jacksonville, I think the Colts keep the momentum with a solid win here on the road. PICK: Colts
CHICAGO (+10) at KANSAS CITY
I know that Chicago is not very good and Jay Cutler could be sacked more times than Rome here, but I do not see the Chiefs winning by double digits. Green Bay showed that the Chiefs can be beaten through the air, and the Bears are getting closer to having full strength in the passing game. Not a ton of confidence here, but I like getting this many points. PICK: Bears
CINCINNATI (-2.5) vs. SEATTLE
Seattle is 2-2 but they had some tough losses to St. Louis and Green Bay on the road in the first two weeks. No slight to the Bengals, who are 4-0 so far this year, but who exactly have they beaten? Three AFC West teams (Oakland, San Diego and Kansas City) along with a road win in Baltimore are all solid, but none of those teams looks to be playoff caliber. At first I saw this game as being a field goal contest at the end, and they say that defense travels well, but what does not travel well is a bad offensive line. Seattle struggled to run last week and that is all due to a week front five. Seattle’s defense is amongst the best, but they do have weaknesses (look for a big game from Tyler Eifert this week). I am going with the home team to make a statement and move to 5-0. PICK: Bengals
ATLANTA (-7.5) vs. WASHINGTON
The battle of two first place teams here between the Falcons and Washington – who saw that one coming? Washington came back to win at home against the Eagles, but Philadelphia looks terrible this year so far, and the Falcons took care of them this season as well. Atlanta is looking for the clean sweep of the NFC East here as they are 3-0 against Dallas, the Giants and the Eagles already this season in a scheduling quirk that has the Falcons facing all four teams in the first five weeks. Combined with a win over Houston and you can easily wonder how strong Atlanta’s 4-0 record is as well, but the eyeball test tells me that The Falcons can run the ball, throw it, play solid special teams and strong defense. That’s enough of a recipe for a big win at home for me. PICK: Falcons
JACKSONVILLE (+3) at TAMPA BAY
No one is respecting the improvements going on with Jacksonville, and here they are going to Tampa Bay and getting points. I was surprised by this line to be honest, and in a good way as I think the Jaguars are the best team in Florida and they get a shot at going 2-0 in the state (after beating Miami earlier this year). Doug Martin got rolling last week for Tampa Bay, but the Buccaneers still cannot put a full game together despite a single win earlier this year over the Sanits. I like what Blake Bortles is doing on offense with Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, and T.J. Yeldon is getting better every week. Jacksonville will apply pressure on Jameis Winston and try and get a few turnovers, just like Carolina did last week. Jacksonville should have beaten the Colts last week, but this week they will get the victory in Tampa. PICK: Jaguars
NEW ORLEANS (+5) at PHILADELPHIA
The Eagles are a hot mess right now, but they are still somehow favored to win the NFC East (go figure). That’s more a statement of how bad the NFC East is than it is a positive vote for Philadelphia. Drew Brees and Mark Ingram are going to get theirs in this one, and I think we are looking at a high-scoring close contest, something like 27-24 or 30-27. I like the Eagles to get a win they truly, truly need – but they will almost assuredly not cover five points. PICK: Saints
BALTIMORE (-6.5) vs. CLEVELAND
Steve Smith is hurt, and if you can name three guys who might catch a pass from Joe Flacco this week you are doing really, really well in you Dynasty leagues. Maxx Williams, Marlon Brown and Aiken are going to be the three small names leading the effort here for Flacco, but there is some good news for the 0-4 Ravens. Cleveland has really struggled on defense this season, and Justin Forsett is very likely to get his first 100-yard game this Sunday. This will be some ugly football I believe here but right now Baltimore does not care about winning pretty – just winning. I think the Ravens win, so I will swallow the points and hope they cover. PICK: Ravens
GREEN BAY (-9) vs. ST. LOUIS
People are going to look at the Week 4 scoreboard and see that the Rams won in Arizona last week and Green Bay only put up 17 points in San Francisco last Sunday and think that St. Louis is going to hang with the Packers this week. I think that’s a huge mistake. Aaron Rodgers had a lot of his skill players getting banged up against the 49ers and the Rams, while playing well against the Cardinals, benefited from an early turnover that set up St. Louis to build an early lead and confidence. I think the Packers jump out early this week and put up a big number behind Rodgers and the passing game this week, then pressure Nick Foles the rest of the way. Packers 31, Rams 13. PICK: Packers
BUFFALO (-2.5) at TENNESSEE
Tennessee was on a bye week last week, and now they get the Bills coming to town after a bad effort at home against the Giants. Buffalo played a lot better than the scoreboard reflected with just 10 points because the Bills committed so many penalties that pulled back several scoring plays and big gains. Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota is still learning the NFL, and Rex Ryan is going to throw the book at him on defense. I am going with the best defense here and hope that the Bills can do enough on offense this week, especially with running backs on the mend. PICK: Bills
ARIZONA (-2.5) at DETROIT
The Cardinals have a strong defense, good offense and a well-balanced team – but last week they got tripped up against their divisional rivals in St. Louis. This week they head back out on the road to Detroit to play a tough defense that nearly stole a win in Seattle. Detroit has struggled on offense and they will again against an underrated Arizona defense here this week. I will take Carson Palmer to work a more balanced offense and lead the Cardinals to a win, 27-20. PICK: Cardinals
NEW ENGLAND (-8) at DALLAS
You can get a well-rested Patriots team against a Tony Romo-less, Dez Bryant-less Cowboys club? Tom Brady vs. Brandon Weeden. Rob Gronkowski against a defense that could be without Sean Lee, who had a concussion Sunday night. I could go on and on, but why? Bill Belichick has two weeks to plan how to beat Dallas, and in case you have missed it, New England is playing like they want to destroy teams, not just beat them. PICK: Patriots.
DENVER (-4.5) at OAKLAND
Denver has to go to the Black Hole for an AFC West matchup this week. In past years we would talk about either Peyton Manning or the rushing game for Denver, but this is all about one phase for the Broncos – the defense. Denver is winning games with their defense and a few big plays on offense, but the defense is the show. I think Denver’s corners shut down Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper, forcing Oakland to throw short or run the ball – which will not go well at all. Denver should control this game and win easily while Oakland may not get 10 points. PICK: Broncos
NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
San Francisco somehow held Aaron Rodgers to 17 points last week, but I think that was more about Green Bay not stepping up than the 49ers really accomplishing much. I like Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. to put on a show against the worst secondary in the league this week and the Giants to roll, while Colin Kaepernick continues to struggle. PICK: Giants
(Monday) SAN DIEGO (-3) vs. PITTSBURGH
The bad news for San Diego is that they have several receivers banged up, but the good news is that Antonio Gates comes back this week and that they have plenty of depth. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has to use Michael Vick at quarterback and a thin defense that is struggling to get off the field. Give me a hot Phillip Rivers at home on a national television stage to get the win. PICK: Chargers
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- (Thursday) INDIANAPOLIS (-1) at HOUSTON
- CINCINNATI (-2.5) vs. SEATTLE
- NEW ORLEANS (+5) at PHILADELPHIA
- NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- (Monday) SAN DIEGO (-3) vs. PITTSBURGH
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (9-5 ODDS):
- ATLANTA (-1.5) vs. WASHINGTON
- BALTIMORE (-0.5) vs. CLEVELAND
- NEW ENGLAND (-2) at DALLAS
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS):
- ATLANTA (-1.5) vs. WASHINGTON
- BALTIMORE (-0.5) vs. CLEVELAND
- NEW ENGLAND (-2) at DALLAS
- NEW YORK GIANTS (-1) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- None this week.
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICKS OF THE WEEK: Colts, Bengals, Saints, Patriots, Giants, Chargers
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 7-8 (46.7%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 7-18 (28%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 1-3 (25%)
Last Week / Season
- OVERALL: 33-29-1 (53.2%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 23.8-36-1 (39.8%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 11-13 (45.8%)
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.