Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season. Let's get started with Week 1, which can be a difficult week to make choices. If you have been on top of the NFL to this point and all through preseason, this might afford you a good advantage and help you to get off to a fast start. Hopefully this will be the case this year.
Week 3 was far better than Week 2 (how could it not be?), but an 11-5 overall record and 6-2 in both Best Bets and Picks of the Week have me right about even on the young year, and honestly that’s about what you would expect with so much newness to the football season. Now with two teams on a bye to mark the beginning of “Bye Week season,” it is time to start to dig in and get some real solid picks. Let’s jump right in to this week’s contests:
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
Bye week teams: New England, Tennessee
(Thursday) BALTIMORE (-2.5) at PITTSBURGH
Last week I went a lot with teams that were desperate for a win, and it paid off for the most part. That was not the case with the Ravens, who had victory in their grasps more than once against the Bengals only to have A.J. Green rip it out over and over again. Now the Ravens have to go to their most bitter rival in the Steelers on a short week, and I am calling for a win (and a cover by Baltimore). Am I nuts? Possibly, but this has to do with a short week for Michael Vick, who now becomes the Steelers starting quarterback for the next month or so. Beyond this week I think Vick will be okay in this role, but not on a short week. The good news with a familiar opponent on a short week is that teams do not have to watch as much tape as they do know each other very well. Joe Flacco has had his struggles with the Steelers in the past, but I think he finds a way to get a much needed win for Baltimore. Ravens 23, Steelers 20. PICK: Ravens
NEW YORK JETS (-1.5) “at” MIAMI (in London)
Please note this early game on Sunday as it is at 9:30AM Eastern due to a kickoff in London this week. Enjoy some early football on Sunday and see a tight fourth quarter battle here Miami should be better than this, but their defense is not stepping up to match the offense and Ryan Fitzpatrick is doing just enough to keep the Jets competitive. This is going be a close game between divisional rivals, and while Miami really does need the win, the Jets look more balanced on offense and are playing better defense. That tells me to take those J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets. PICK: Jets
JACKSONVILLE (+9) at INDIANAPOLIS
The Colts got a very close win on the road last week against Tennessee (and nearly blew their lead at the end). Jacksonville was torched by the Patriots as double-digit underdogs on the road, and here they are again traveling to a tough opponent at nearly a double-digit underdog once again. Here’s the thing, though – this is a divisional game and the Jaguars always seem to step up their game against the Colts, for whatever reason. Blake Bortles has two solid receiving options in Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson, but the key to me is going to be T.J. Yeldon. The Colts just cannot play good defense right now, and Yeldon could be looking at his best game as a pro so far. I like the Jaguars to keep this game within a touchdown, but I’m not in love with that. Colts 27, Jaguars 20. PICK: Jaguars
NEW YORK GIANTS (+6) at BUFFALO
Another intrastate matchup (sort of) here as the Giants visit the Bills in Week 4. The Giants played well last Thursday at home against Washington, winning 32-21 and playing very good run defense. That is the key to me as I think they make Tyrod Taylor try and beat them, much like they forced Kirk Cousins to try and do the same last week. Throw in that New York has more rest and the more experienced quarterback and I will take the veterans and the points here to cover and also win, 24-17. PICK: Giants
CAROLINA (-3) at TAMPA BAY
Tampa Bay is going to continue to improve, but Jamies Winston is still a rookie and the Panthers are playing some solid defense right now. Carolina is 3-0 and has a lot of momentum going on the road here within the division, so they will focus on getting a big road win and move out to 4-0. This will be a low scoring game, which also favors Graham Gano over Kyle Brindza, who has a big leg but not much confidence right now after missing a few field goal chances in Week 3. Take the Panthers on the road, 20-13. PICK: Panthers
PHILADELPHIA (-3) at WASHINGTON
The Eagles got a big win last week on the road at the Jets, and they need to continue that momentum in Washington this Sunday. Washington has a few days of extra rest after playing the Giants last Thursday, but that loss highlighted that the better way to beat Washington is through the air, not on the ground, as Eli Manning had 279 yards and two touchdowns while the Giants only had 84 yards rushing on 31 attempts. The Eagles will have to move the ball with the pass somehow and not drop so many passes, a tall order for the team of late. This is going to be much closer than some might expect, but Chip Kelly knows that this is another must win if they want to win the NFC East. I will cautiously take Philadelphia here, but it won’t come easy unless the Eagles defense or special teams makes some big plays. PICK: Eagles
OAKLAND (-1) at CHICAGO
Oh my, Bears fans – how rough must it be to see that the Raiders on the road are favored to beat the hometown Bears? Derek Carr is going to be the best quarterback in this game by quite a wide margin even if Jay Cutler can somehow suit up, which does not look very likely . Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett are about all Chicago can provide for some offense, while Oakland has Latavius Murray, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Yes, I would make Oakland the favorite too. Raiders by at least a field goal – sorry Chicago, but at least the Cubs are in the playoffs, right? PICK: Raiders
HOUSTON (+6.5) at ATLANTA
Did you think I was going to take all chalk this week? At first so did I, but I feel that this is where Atlanta has a bit of a letdown against the Texans. Houston has a great defense, solid corners (who will be tested with Julio Jones) and a very fast-paced offense that has been quietly productive over the first few weeks. Atlanta has three big wins on the young season against the NFC East (Philadelphia, Dallas, and the Giants) and they head home now to face an AFC South team. This game looks like a trap to me and the Falcons could definitely have a letdown here. I do not think Houston wins, but I think they keep it close enough that they cover. Falcons 31, Texans 27 sounds about right to me. PICK: Texans
CINCINNATI (-3.5) vs. KANSAS CITY
The Chiefs were thoroughly handled by Green Bay on Monday Night Football, as the final score of 38-28 does not adequately reflect the 31-7 early lead that Aaron Rodgers created. While no one will ever mistake Andy Dalton for Aaron Rodgers, the Bengals have the offense clicking after a big, dramatic win on the road in Baltimore last week. The Bengals should be able to keep the offense flowing and the defense will key on Jamaal Charles, asking an overwhelmed Alex Smith to try and notice that you can actually throw a pass more than 10 yards down the field. Bengals win by at least a touchdown at home here, something like 31-24, and it might not even be that close PICK: Bengals
SAN DIEGO (-7.5) vs. CLEVELAND
I am having a hard time with this big point spread (but that’s the goal of Las Vegas, isn’t it?) as I would like the Chargers to win here by a touchdown, but asking for more than a touchdown sounds more difficult. If I have learned one thing though is that if you like a team by a touchdown, asking for 1-2 more points usually isn’t enough to sway your call. The Browns just gave up a big day to Derek Carr and Amani Cooper, so I have to think that Phillip Rivers and Keenan Allen can continue that trend. I like the Chargers at home here to get back on the winning track and win by double digits, 31-20. PICK: Chargers
GREEN BAY (-8) at SAN FRANCISCO
Aaron Rodgers scored 31 points in the blink of an eye last week, and I am not sure that San Francisco has even 31 points yet this year (they do, fact checkers – 45 so far, but go with me here). Rodgers takes his team to his old stomping grounds (Rodgers went to Cal and is from Chiico, CA) and the crowd will have plenty of Rodgers’ friends and family in attendance. I think Rodgers throws for several touchdowns to impress his family with a triumphant return to the bay area, regardless of however many Pick 6’s Colin Kaepernick throws this week. PICK: Packers
ARIZONA (-6.5) vs. ST. LOUIS
Finally a point spread I can get behind, as I thought the Cardinals might be favored by more than a touchdown this week. The Rams are dead last in total offensive yards and fifth from the bottom in total points. Arizona is humming with Carson Palmer back as the starting quarterback, and they are getting healthier with Michael Floyd back and Andre Ellington close. I think this is another rout in favor of Arizona. PICK: Cardinals
DENVER (-6.5) vs. MINNESOTA
Denver just has to keep doing what they are doing – playing very good defense and not asking Peyton Manning to overextend his now limited athletic abilities. Manning’s arm can no longer keep up with his brain, but he is smart enough to beat most any team with play calls and pre-snap reads. Once the Broncos get the ground game going, they could be one of the top AFC teams, but it will come down to how Denver does down the stretch and against a team like New England. For this week, I like Denver’s defense to keep Adrian Peterson to solid numbers but not spectacular and that will put more pressure on Teddy Bridgewater. The young quarterback is getting better but the Denver secondary will still force a turnover or two from him, especially with pressure from a great Denver front seven. Take the Broncos at home by about 10, say 27-17. PICK: Broncos
DALLAS (+4) at NEW ORLEANS
Will Drew Brees play? That is the big question. If he plays at home here, I do not think that the will be at full strength. Dallas will look to put a ton of pressure on him and try to hit him early and often to either force turnovers or to see if he cannot continue. On offense, Dallas will do more of the same from last week – run, run, run the ball with Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden. Carolina ran the ball 30 times last week for 119 yards and a touchdown, and I expect far more from Dallas on the ground this week. The Saints are giving up 126 yards a game on the ground, and they have not faced an offensive line or run game like Dallas can offer. Forget the rest of the game script as this is the dominant element for this one. Dallas plus points here for the team that can run all day long. I will take Dallas to cover and very likely for a win. PICK: Cowboys
(Monday) SEATTLE (-9.5) vs. DETROIT
Seattle got a big home win over the Bears last week – okay, not just big, a slaughter as they shut out Chicago 26-0. While I am not calling for a repeat of that performance as the Lions offer a much better offense, Seattle sees the light at the end of the tunnel here with a 2-2 record after a second win at home within their reach. Detroit played decently against Denver last week, but the offense is still not clicking and Seattle will have the 12th man effect in full force on Monday Night Football. Give me Russell Wilson and company to get the double-digit win before a national audience, 27-13. PICK: Seahawks
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- (Thursday) BALTIMORE (-2.5) at PITTSBURGH
- NEW YORK JETS (-1.5) “at” MIAMI (in London)
- JACKSONVILLE (+9) at INDIANAPOLIS
- CAROLINA (-3) at TAMPA BAY
- PHILADELPHIA (-3) at WASHINGTON
- OAKLAND (-1) at CHICAGO
- HOUSTON (+6.5) at ATLANTA
- SAN DIEGO (-7.5) vs. CLEVELAND
- DENVER (-6.5) vs. MINNESOTA
- (Thursday) PITTSBURGH “FOR THE WIN” (+135) vs. BALTIMORE
- HOUSTON “FOR THE WIN” (+240) at ATLANTA
- DALLAS “FOR THE WIN” (Currently Off, but I will take anything over +130) at NEW ORLEANS
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (9-5 ODDS):
- DALLAS (+10) at NEW ORLEANS
- GREEN BAY (-2) at SAN FRANCISCO
- ARIZONA (-0.5) vs. ST. LOUIS
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS):
- DALLAS (+10) at NEW ORLEANS
- GREEN BAY (-2) at SAN FRANCISCO
- ARIZONA (-0.5) vs. ST. LOUIS
- DENVER (-0.5) vs. MINNESOTA
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
- DALLAS (+10) at NEW ORLEANS
- GREEN BAY (-2) at SAN FRANCISCO
- ARIZONA (-0.5) vs. ST. LOUIS
- DENVER (-0.5) vs. MINNESOTA
- SAN DIEGO (-1.5) vs. CLEVELAND
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- DALLAS (+4) at NEW ORLEANS
- (Monday) SEATTLE (-9.5) vs. DETROIT
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- GREEN BAY (-8) at SAN FRANCISCO
- ARIZONA (-6.5) vs. ST. LOUIS
PICKS OF THE WEEK: Cowboys, Seahawks, Packers, Cardinals
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 11-5 (68.8%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 6-2 (75%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 6-2 (75%)
Season
- OVERALL: 26-21-1 (55.3%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 16.8-18-1 (48.3%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 10-10 (50%)
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.