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Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Last time around was not so great when it came to the Star picks, but the Best Bets went 3-0 and I was even on the games, and I’ve been 60% or better in the postseason. I’ll take that. Now with just the big game left, we have just one game to look at but I’ll throw some prop bets out there as well. So let’s get started:
Bye week teams: Atlanta, New England
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
SUPER BOWL LI
ATLANTA (+3) vs. NEW ENGLAND (Houston, Texas)
(Sunday, 6:25PM Eastern, FOX)
Super Bowl LI marks the end of the NFL season once again, and a similar story to years past emerges as the Atlanta Falcons get set to square off against the New England Patriots. We all know the multitude of storylines here with both teams, so let’s just focus on the game, shall we?
Both teams are going to be scoring – or so we think. That’s the biggest question for me in this contest. New England is supposed to have the better defense, and possibly a dominant one, but how much have they really been tested? Pittsburgh struggled against them and the Texans were, well, the Texans. The point is that the Patriots did league the league in points against this year, but the strength of schedule was not all that strong. Now they get to face the top scoring team in the NFL in the Falcons, who will tax any defense regardless of ranking. Atlanta has the best 1-2 punch backfield with Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman, and Matt Ryan has pushed for the MVP since Week 1.
Which brings us to Tom Brady, who is Candidate 1B to Ryan’s 1A MVP ranking. Either one of them could walk away with that award, but odds are it is Ryan’s given he had 16 games to put up stronger numbers. Brady did all he could and set a TD:INT ratio record this year by throwing 28 touchdowns against just two picks. Now in two postseason contests he has lit up two teams with the likes of Chris Hogan and Martellus Bennett. Brady is not alone in this battle as he has three running backs to call upon, with James White a sold receiver, LeGarrette Blount leading the NFL in rushing touchdowns and Dion Lewis the most versatile of all three. Atlanta’s defense will also face a strong challenge here, but they have really improved over the second half of the season and they kept Aaron Rodgers from lighting up the scoreboard nearly two weeks ago.
So who do I like?
In a word, Atlanta. Here’s why.
First, the defense is better than advertised. They were able to get after Aaron Rodgers and consistently pressure him, and they were also able to force two turnovers. I think their game plan will be similar this week as they will push the pocket and try and make the statuesque Brady move off of the spot. Rodgers is one of the best on the move quarterbacks, but Brady is not. With a diminutive Julian Edelman as the main target, blanketing him and forcing Brady to look elsewhere could go a long way.
The best game plan I have for New England actually minimizes Tom Brady. Using three backs to move the ball against the Falcons and to keep Matt Ryan on the sidelines feels like the best option. That also goes a long way towards keeping their defense fresh, as they do not have as much lateral speed after shipping a disgruntled Jamie Collins to Siberia – I mean, Cleveland. The Patriots will focus on shutting down Julio Jones, but both tailbacks have quickness and speed with the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. The wild card is Taylor Gabriel, and the Falcons will look to get the ball in his hands as often as possible, especially in space. As the key punt returner, I like Gabriel’s skill in changing field position more than Edelman. To round out special teams, I like Matt Bryant over Steven Gostkowski as well, although both are solid options especially in ideal conditions.
I sincerely hope that this is a closely contested game from start to finish, with the additional goal of watching the very first overtime Super Bowl in history. Either way, I like Atlanta to get their first ever Super Bowl championship and to take home the Lombardi Trophy – but I will turn the game off before I see Arthur Blank dancing one last time. Pick: Falcons 30, Patriots 27.
- Latest Lines: New England Patriots -3, Over / Under 59 points
- Money Lines: New England -150, Atlanta +130
- Prediction: Atlanta Falcons 30, New England Patriots 27
- Pick: Falcons
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
- ATLANTA (+3) vs. NEW ENGLAND
- ATLANTA “FOR THE WIN” (+130) vs. NEW ENGLAND
Prop Bets
Specialty bets on certain propositions (commonly called “prop” bets) are very popular for the big game. There are literally thousands of them out there, and you can shop around to get the best odds on anything from MVP to the coin toss to the length of the anthem all the way to the color of the Gatorade dumped on the winning coach. Sites such as Oddsshark and Bovada have several of them, but if you Google “Super Bowl prop bets” you will find all you can possibly want.
Here are some of my favorites this year:
Will Luke Bryan be wearing blue jeans during the National Anthem? (Yes -200)
Seriously? A country singer not wearing blue jeans? On the biggest football day of the year? No contest.
First touchdown scorer: LeGarrette Blount (+800)
New England needs to run, and Blount has racked them up this year. I like those odds.
Will the game go to Overtime? (+750)
This has never happened, but it is so much fun to root for. Just be careful on this one.
Most receiving yards: Mohamed Sanu (+1000)
If Julio Jones gets doubled and New England runs a lot, I like this one quite a bit.
Total receiving yards – Dion Lewis (21.5) (Over = -130)
Total receptions – Dion Lewis (2.5) (Over = -125)
I like the Over here as Brady will have to use his backs to move the ball.
Total receiving yards – Mohamed Sanu (45.5) (Over = -135)
Total receptions – Mohamed Sanu (4.5) (Over = Even)
Same deal as above – I like Sanu to get a lot of looks.
Total punts in the game – Under 7.5 (-125)
I expect a lot of scoring and even going for it on fourth down. A 30-27 score means 11 scoring events (6 touchdowns, 5 field goals). Throw in halftime and a few turnovers and I like the under.
Will there be a safety in the game? Yes (+600)
Two of the past five years have had a safety, and Bill Belichick has been known to take one on purpose now and then. Strange things can and do happen in Super Bowls.
Who will Donald Trump pick to win the game? New England (-500)
Not sure how they will determine his pick, but he’s very friendly with Tom Brady and the Patriots.
Cross-sports prop:
Russell Westbrook points scored vs. New England points scored: Westbrook (EVEN)
Westbrook faces the Blazers at home on Sunday afternoon, with many folks watching prior to the game. He could easily get 40+.
***FOUR STAR EXTRAVAGANZA****
MVP:
Tom Brady (+160)
Matt Ryan (+275)
We wrap up our year with my FAVORITE PROP and STONE COLD LOCK for the game. Nearly every year, the winning quarterback wins this, and I expect it again this year. Just put 70% of your Tom Brady amount on Matt Ryan and walk away happy. (Example: 200 on Brady and 140 on Ryan. Brady wins, and you get 320 (win 1.6x) and lose 140, so +180. If Ryan wins, you get 385 and lose 200, or +185. So as long as the QB wins, you win.)
Also, for fun on Sunday, print this out and hand it out to your Super Bowl party guests. There’s even an answer key available once the game is over.
Enjoy Super Bowl Sunday, and I’ll see you in the fall!
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 1-1 (50.0%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 4-12 (25.0%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 2-1 (66.7%)
Postseason
- OVERALL: 6-4 (60.0%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 39.7-26.43 (60.0%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 9-2 (81.8%)
Regular Season
- OVERALL: 124-127-5 (49.4%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 207-222-1 (48.3)
- PICK OF WEEK: 68-69-1 (49.6%)
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com
