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Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Throughout the NFL playoffs I have really emphasized using Las Vegas against themselves, as the lines are VERY good in January – so if you listened to me and followed my lead, you have had a great, GREAT month. Last week (or should I say, almost two weeks ago) I missed on New England, but I pretty much nailed everything else, including the teasers which has been the play of the month. An 84% win rate is not sustainable long term, but you have to enjoy it while it lasts.
So what about the big game, Super Bowl 50? As I have done in the past, I will break down the big game some, make a pick, and include some of my favorite Super Bowl prop bets. Enjoy – and thanks for reading this season. See you next fall!
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
SUPER BOWL 50
CAROLINA PANTHERS (-5.5) vs. DENVER BRONCOS
(Sunday, 6:20PM Eastern, CBS)
Sunday’s matchup in Super Bowl 50 has all of the storylines that you could possibly want. A new, emerging star quarterback squaring off against the aging, savvy veteran who is about to ride off into the sunset. One five-time MVP versus the likely MVP from this season. This game will be billed as Cam Newton against Peyton Manning, but these two combatants will only take the field at the same time three times this week at the most – media day, the coin toss and the postgame handshake – and none of those will have an impact on the outcome. In reality, this is Denver’s defense against Cam Newton and Peyton Manning against the Carolina defense. So how do those matchups look? Let’s break each one down:
Broncos offense vs. Panthers defense
This is a very interesting matchup. First we have to talk about the passing game for the Broncos. While everyone is celebrating Peyton Manning’s return to the big game, let’s have a quick reality check. Manning was on the sidelines with an injury until Week 17, when he came off the bench to rescue his team – in the game and for the season – but he only completed five passes for 69 yards and zero touchdowns against a weak San Diego Chargers defense. He then went on to get a week off, then manage a victory at home against a beat up Pittsburgh Steelers team that had just battled Cincinnati to a close win but lost Antonio Brown and DeAngelo Williams. Denver’s defense pretty much took care of that game, as Manning did struggle to throw in the wind in Denver on that day. The AFC Championship Game had Manning throw two short touchdowns to Owen Daniels against New England, but aside from those two throws, Manning let the defense and ground game take over. Denver’s defense really got Manning back to the Super Bowl (including stopping the tying two-point try from the Patriots), and I expect Manning to not try and do too much against a tough Carolina secondary. Manning does not have the arm he used to, that is for sure, but he is still one of the smartest quarterbacks to ever play the game. With two weeks to prepare, Manning will be searching for any option to beat the Carolina defense, even if it is for just one or two big plays. With this likely to be Manning’s last game, I expect him to pull out all the stops he can come Sunday.
Now, as for the ground game, I expect Denver to rely heavily on both C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman. Both backs have had a ton of touches in both playoff games, and this is the way to try and attack Carolina on defense. Since Week 15, the Panthers have given up one 100-yard game (Rashad Jennings) but also allowed four more backs to pile up 90 or more combined rushing and receiving yards (Devonta Freeman, Doug Martin, Charles Sims and David Johnson in the NFC Championship Game). The only week it did not happen was the Seattle game where Carolina jumped out to a huge 31-0 halftime lead, rendering the Seahawks a pass-only offense. Anderson and Hillman have 64 total touches in only two playoff games, so look for the Broncos to get both backs 10+ carries and 2+ catches each in Super Bowl 50. This will help take the pressure off of Peyton Manning, keep Cam Newton off of the field and also maximize their offensive output by attacking the weakness of Carolina’s defense.
Panthers offense vs. Broncos defense
Cam Newton – do I need to say more? Well, I will, but Newton has accounted for 50 total touchdowns since Week 1, and you can pretty much bet that he will account for more come Sunday. The problem in defending against Newton and the Panthers is this – who do you try and shut down? Newton can spread the ball to several targets, hand off to Jonathan Stewart, or run it himself. That’s tough to defend, even for the #1 defense on a yards-per-play basis. Denver can shut down Ted Ginn and maybe do okay against Greg Olsen, but odds are that they will struggle some up the middle against the run and also to contain Newton. Tight ends have given them problems as well this year, even if you do not count Rob Gronkowski’s 8-144-1 AFC Championship performance and his strong Week 12 performance (6-88-1). Good tight ends like Travis Kelce, Gary Barnidge and Antonio Gates have all had respectable-to-good showings this year against the Broncos, and I would expect Olsen to do so as well. Denver has not faced anything like Cam Newton this year, and few teams have as Newton is truly unique. The Broncos may shut down some of his options, but Newton has proven time and time again this year that he will either find the open man or move the ball on the ground to keep the Panther offense moving. I like Carolina to have a respectable performance come Sunday.
The Pick
My first guess at the line for this game was somewhere between three and seven points for Carolina, and that has been where it has lined up all week. The public is heavily backing Carolina (83% last I heard), and the early line of three points moved quickly to 4, 5 then 6 points this week. I expect it to stay between five and six, and it is a solid number as usual from the Sportsbooks. So what do you do here? Do not discount the value of both Denver’s ground game and defense, or Peyton Manning having two weeks to heal and study how to beat Carolina, but I have to go with Carolina to win their very first Super Bowl come Sunday. It will not be easy, but I think Cam Newton gets in the end zone, as does Greg Olsen and Jonathan Stewart. Those three scores, along with a few field goals by Graham Gano, should be enough to outpace Denver and their ground attack. Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson may each find the end zone, but I do not think that Denver can contain Carolina enough to manage a victory for Super Bowl 50. PICK: Panthers
- Latest Lines: Carolina -5.5 to 6, Over / Under 45 to 46 points
- Money Lines: Carolina -225 to -240, Denver +190 to +200
- Prediction: Carolina Panthers 27, Denver Broncos 23
- Pick: Panthers
PROPOSITION (“PROP”) BETS
Courtesy of Bovada and SportsBookReview.com.
There are a ton of proposition bets (commonly called “prop” bets) for the Super Bowl, and if you dig into them all, you can find some favorable ways to both enjoy the game and make some money – if you look hard. Hopefully the following list will help you come Sunday.
In the past, I have been a big proponent of betting on the MVP for the Super Bowl. It is almost always a quarterback, and Cam Newton is the heavy favorite. Right now that line is at -130, which means you have to spend more to win (a $130 bet wins $100 plus your initial $130 back). That’s less than even odds, so it is a steep bet – but I think it is the right call. I would expect Newton to be the MVP, but it is a heavier price to pay.
Here are some other interesting wagers that I like for Super Bowl 50:
Cam Newton scores a touchdown AND Carolina wins (+200):
I like this one because of the correlation factor. Newton has scored 12 rushing touchdowns this year in 18 games (including the postseason) and he is about an even bet to score on Sunday (-110 odds, so he is favored to score). Call it a 50% chance he scores. Now Carolina is also favored to win, and if Cam scores, I think they will win, so getting +200 for this seems like a gift if you like Cam to run the ball in at least once on Sunday. This is one of my favorite of the props (and I know there are many).
Ronnie Hillman has the most rushing yards (+700):
Denver is going to run the ball, and they love to split the workload between Hillman and C.J. Anderson. Really this should be a four-way race between those two backs, Jonathan Stewart and Cam Newton. I think Hillman has at least a 25% chance of winning that race, and +700 is way too steep against those chances.
Peyton Manning TD passes under 1.5 (+135):
Carolina’s defensive strength is against the pass, and Denver should be looking to run the ball on Sunday. Peyton Manning has two touchdown passes in the past 2+ games, both to Owen Daniels. I do not think it is going to be the game plan for Denver to rely on Peyton to sling it several times in this contest. He could, but I would say the odds are against it – and especially for him to get two or more passing touchdowns.
Virgil Green under 0.5 catches (+120):
Virgil Green under 7.5 yards (-115):
Not sure if Virgil Green has to see the field for this to count here, as I do not have the data for his usage against Pittsburgh (no snap counts, but definitely no targets), but Green was on the field (allegedly) 32 times against New England and had zero targets. I like that story to be repeated here.
Ronnie Hillman over 10.5 carries (-105):
Ronnie Hillman over 35.5 rushing yards (-115):
Ronnie Hillman over 1.5 receptions (+130):
Ronnie Hillman over 7.5 receiving yards (-125):
Denver is going to get both backs involved for sure, and Hillman has been a big part of this playoff run. Hillman had 16 carries for 38 yards against Pittsburgh with one target (no catches), and then he followed that up with an 11-16 day against the Patriots. He also had two targets against New England, catching one ball for seven yards. That seems to indicate to take the under, but I like all four overs here. Hillman had 11 or more carries in 10 regular season games and more than 36 rushing yards 10 times. His receiving numbers are closer calls, as he was catching more short passes from Brock Osweiler in Weeks 14 (seven catches) and 16 (four catches). I do think that Denver is going to have to throw shorter passes and get Hillman in the receiving game, but it is a riskier pick. I like the rushing props much better here, although all four are in play.
Will Mike Carey be wrong about a challenge? Yes (+145), No (-190)
This prop has a lot of bias here, as most people who have listened to Mike Carey think that he is terrible at the role of officiating specialist consultant (or whatever he is called) for CBS. According to this article, he is actually 90% correct when it comes to taking a stance on replays, so the smart money is on “No” at -190.
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
This is the final installment for this season, and it has been a lot of fun. I hope that you enjoyed it.
For the big game, the only way to play it is to think about a two-sided teaser, in my humble opinion. That means taking your favorite, such as Carolina, and teasing them with both the over and the under. That way, if it lands in both, you win twice. If you are wrong, well, you can either try and guess which one is more likely and bet that more, or bet your favorite outright. Lastly, there is the “hope for the box” strategy where you tease all four outcomes (Denver, Carolina, Over, Under) in combination and try and land in the middle – again, using Las Vegas against itself. I think that is probably the best play this week.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 6-POINT TEASER: DENVER (+12) vs. CAROLINA (OVER 39)
- 6-POINT TEASER: DENVER (+12) vs. CAROLINA (UNDER 52)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 6-POINT TEASER: CAROLINA (+0.5) vs. DENVER (OVER 39)
- 6-POINT TEASER: CAROLINA (+0.5) vs. DENVER (UNDER 52)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
* ONE STAR PROPS *
- Ronnie Hillman has the most rushing yards (+700)
- Virgil Green under 0.5 catches (+120
- Virgil Green under 7.5 yards (-115)
- Ronnie Hillman over 10.5 carries (-105)
- Ronnie Hillman over 35.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Will Mike Carey be wrong about a challenge? No (-190)
** TWO STAR PROPS **
- Peyton Manning TD passes under 1.5 (+135)
*** THREE STAR PROPS ***
- Cam Newton scores a touchdown AND Carolina wins (+200)
PICKS OF THE WEEK: 6-POINT TEASER: CAROLINA (+0.5) vs. DENVER (OVER 39), Cam Newton scores a touchdown AND Carolina wins (+200)
(Note - I have changed my Pick as of Wednesday from just Carolina to the Carolina/Over teaser, as I believe it is a better selection).
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 1-1 (50%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 9-2 (81.8%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 0-1 (0%)
Postseason
- OVERALL: 6-4 (60%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 57.6-11 (84.0%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 4-3 (57.1%)
Regular Season
- OVERALL: 132-119-5 (52.6%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 193.05-169-2 (53.3%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 54-49-3 (52.4%)
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.