Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Last week was a modest week for picks at 2-2, but my “Stars” lit up the sky with a 74% win rate (25.55-9) and my Picks of the Week were a perfect 3-0. Once again, I’m liking January football. Sadly, we have just three games left, but they should be highly entertaining (and high scoring, but more on that later). So let’s get started:
Bye week teams: None
Teams returning from a bye: None
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
GREEN BAY (+5) at ATLANTA
(Sunday, 3:05PM Eastern, FOX)
These two teams are seriously on a roll. The Packers finished the regular season with six consecutive victories and now have just won two playoff games, including a thrilling win in Dallas last Sunday. Even more impressive is that they have scored 30+ points in all eight of those contests. Atlanta is almost as hot, winning five in a row and a playoff game, and 6 of 7 since their bye week in Week 11. The Falcons have also been scoring at a big clip, topping 30 points in the last five games. It is no wonder that the total points are at a record high of 60-61 points, and I can easily see it going over.
These two teams squared off back in Week 8, but that was eons ago in football. Well, almost. Both teams scored a ton and the Falcons won, 33-32, with both quarterbacks combining for seven touchdown passes. Aaron Rodgers was highly efficient with a 28-38-246-4-0 performance and added 60 yards on just six carries, while Matt Ryan had 288 yards passing with 80% completions (28-35) and three scores. To say it was a shootout might be an understatement. Now, Ty Montgomery wasn’t running the ball for Green Bay back then, but also Atlanta was also lacking Tevon Coleman (but Terron Ward played well in his absence). Both teams are hot, the defenses are both suspect, and both kickers are strong. I can see this game as a 34-31 or 37-34 type contest, and taking Aaron Rodgers and points in a dome where he seems like he has a reasonable shot a winning feels like the best plan. Pick: Packers
- Latest Lines: Atlanta Falcons -4.5 to 5, Over / Under 60 to 61 points
- Money Lines: Atlanta -190 to -210, Green Bay +165 to +175
- Prediction: Atlanta Falcons 34, Green Bay Packers 31
- Pick: Packers
NEW ENGLAND (-6) vs. PITTSBURGH
(Sunday, 6:40PM Eastern, CBS)
The Patriots have not given up a 90+ yard rusher in more than 24 games. That’s significant as LeVeon Bell is going to be the key part of the Pittsburgh offense. These two teams matched up back in Week 7 where New England won 27-16, but Bell was not getting as much work back in October as he does now – yet he still had 81 yards on 21 carries and added 68 more on 10 catches. Bell was the focal point for Pittsburgh back then as Ben Roethlisberger was out with an injury and Landry Jones had to be under center. Further differences exist with Rob Gronkowski the leading Patriots receiver in Week 7 (4-93-1) as he scored a late touchdown and setup another for LeGarrette Blount. This game is going to be decidedly different with no Gronkowski and Roethlisberger quarterbacking Pittsburgh, but I still like Tom Brady at home. Bell will get 150+ total yards and likely find the end zone, but Brady and his pass-catching backs in James White and Dion Lewis will help move the ball and position Blount for a Red Zone touchdown. This game may be close, but I like New England to win and reluctantly am giving up six big points. Pick: Patriots
- Latest Lines: New England Patriots -6, Over / Under 50.5 to 51 points
- Money Lines: New England -240 to -260, Pittsburgh +190 to +220
- Prediction: New England Patriots 34, Pittsburgh 27
- Pick: Patriots
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
Before I get to my picks for the Championship Round, I thought it might be valuable to provide my rankings of the common four picks (against the spread, over/under) for these games:
- GREEN BAY (+5) at ATLANTA
- GREEN BAY at ATLANTA (OVER 60)
- NEW ENGLAND (-6) vs. PITTSBURGH
- NEW ENGLAND vs. PITTSBURGH (OVER 50)
*ONE STAR GAMES *
- NEW ENGLAND (-6) vs. PITTSBURGH
- NEW ENGLAND vs. PITTSBURGH (OVER 50)
- GREEN BAY “FOR THE WIN” (+175) at ATLANTA (Good odds)
- PITTSBURGH “FOR THE WIN” (+220) at NEW ENGLAND (Good odds)
Note: Normally I stay away from parlays as they are steep odds, but with two close games likely this weekend, I see a positive ROI scenario where both Green Bay and Pittsburgh can win about 20% of the time. At odds > 7x for the parlay, it makes sense to take a shot at this, but don’t go crazy.
2-TEAM PARLAY: (+780)
- GREEN BAY “FOR THE WIN” (+175) at ATLANTA (Good odds)
- PITTSBURGH “FOR THE WIN” (+220) at NEW ENGLAND (Good odds)
TEASERS:
Note: You will see both sides of the same game in these teasers. That is done on purpose, because I have a really good feeling that some of these games land in the middle (near the Las Vegas line) so why not play both sides?
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+410 ODDS):
- GREEN BAY (+11) at ATLANTA
- GREEN BAY at ATLANTA (OVER 54)
- NEW ENGLAND (EVEN) vs. PITTSBURGH
- NEW ENGLAND vs. PITTSBURGH (OVER 44)
- PITTSBURGH (+12) at NEW ENGLAND
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+610 ODDS):
- GREEN BAY (+11) at ATLANTA
- GREEN BAY at ATLANTA (OVER 54)
- NEW ENGLAND (EVEN) vs. PITTSBURGH
- NEW ENGLAND vs. PITTSBURGH (OVER 44)
- PITTSBURGH (+12) at NEW ENGLAND
- ATLANTA (+1.5) vs. GREEN BAY
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- GREEN BAY (+5) at ATLANTA
- GREEN BAY at ATLANTA (OVER 60)
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+265 ODDS):
- GREEN BAY (+11) at ATLANTA
- GREEN BAY at ATLANTA (OVER 54)
- NEW ENGLAND (EVEN) vs. PITTSBURGH
- NEW ENGLAND vs. PITTSBURGH (OVER 44)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+165 ODDS):
- GREEN BAY (+11) at ATLANTA
- GREEN BAY at ATLANTA (OVER 54)
- NEW ENGLAND (EVEN) vs. PITTSBURGH
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Green Bay, Green Bay / Atlanta Over 60, New England
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 2-2 (50.0%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 25.55-9 (74.0%)
- PICK OF WEEK:3-0 (100%)
Postseason
- OVERALL: 5-3 (62.5%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 35.7-14.43 (71.2%)
- PICK OF WEEK:7-1 (87.5%)
Regular Season
- OVERALL: 124-127-5 (49.4%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 207-222-1 (48.3)
- PICK OF WEEK: 68-69-1 (49.6%)
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com
