Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Last week was a strong start to the playoffs, as I hit on three out of four games overall and my Top 4 ranked picks also were successful. Over/unders were a tripping point for most of the games, but you can’t get everything right – but you can try. So now comes Week 2 of the postseason, the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. Here is where the rubber meets the road, as recency bias comes into play with four victorious teams moving on from the Wild Card round to face four better opponents coming off of their bye weeks. All four home teams should be favored, as they are the top two seeds in each conference. Let’s dig in for the next slate of four games:
Bye week teams: None
Teams returning from a bye: Atlanta, Dallas, New England, Kansas City
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
ATLANTA (-4.5) vs. SEATTLE
(Saturday, 4:35PM Eastern, FOX)
The Seahawks took care of business at home, defeating the Detroit Lions 26-6 on Saturday. Thomas Rawls had a phenomenal day, rushing for 161 yards and a touchdown to pace the offense all day for Seattle. Going back to Week 6 of the regular season, Atlanta visited Seattle and a compelling game broke out where Matt Ryan had over 300 yards passing and three touchdowns yet the Seahawks were able to escape with a 26-24 home win. Back then (and this seems like ages ago), Christine Michael led the running attack for Seattle, as he had a modest statistical day rushing (18-64) but found the end zone twice – as did another back who scored on his lone carry of the day, Alex Collins. Now Michael is in Green Bay and Thomas Rawls is back in the mix, and I think he is the key for the Seahawks to remain competitive on Saturday. Rawls ran strong last week and helped to set up Russell Wilson’s play-action passing, and that will be a big part of the game plan against Atlanta. The Falcons defense has been the weak spot for the team all season, but Matt Ryan’s passing and the two running backs have been able to overshadow that Achilles heel for the Falcons. Going back again to Week 6, the Falcons had next to nothing going on the ground (17-50 rushing for both Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman), and I expect that to be the case once again this time around. Both the Falcons and the Seahawks should be able to put points up on the board, so the secondary effects are what I am using to decide this one. Atlanta has the best field goal kicker this year in Matt Bryant, and their kick return team is stronger as Tyler Lockett was a big part of the special teams for Seattle. Paul Richardson Jr has great hands as a receiver, but Lockett contributed more on that hidden third unit for the Seahawks. I think this game gets the weekend going with some excitement as this can easily be a 31-27 type contest, but I definitely side with the home team with an extra week of rest and preparation. Pick: Falcons
- Latest Lines: Atlanta Falcons -4.5 to 5, Over / Under 51.5 to 52 points
- Money Lines: Atlanta -220 to -240, Seattle +185 to +200
- Prediction: Atlanta Falcons 34, Seattle Seahawks 27
- Pick: Falcons
NEW ENGLAND (-15.5) vs. HOUSTON
(Saturday, 8:15PM Eastern, CBS)
This game looks to be a probable blowout on Saturday night, so if you wanted to find a window this weekend to spend some time with the family or do something else, this might be the right time. New England opened up as a favorite by more than two touchdowns over the Texans, and the number keeps rising as I have seen a line as high as 17 points already here on Thursday morning. If you were wondering if this was one of the bigger point spreads in recent memory, you are correct, as only three games have had 16+ point spreads in the postseason – Arizona at Minnesota in 1998 (Vikings -16.5), the New York Jets in Super Bowl III (Colts -18), and the San Francisco 49ers were 19-point favorites over San Diego in Super Bowl XXIX. Two of the three won and covered (Vikings by 20, 49ers by 23) while the Jets had the historic upset. So it’s pretty rare, let’s just say that – and it should be. Playoff teams are supposed to be good, and have a quarterback that most people would be able to name. That’s not the case with the Texans, who are led (again) by Brock Osweiler as they visit Foxboro Saturday night. Bill Belichick has had over a week (and more) to prepare, as has Tom Brady. In a word, this could get ugly. I am struggling to see how the Texans score more than 16 points, and that’s only if Nick Novak gets hot and hits three field goals.
The most telling number from the sportsbooks for this game is NOT the point spread, but the Over/Under or total points implied for this contest. That number is only 44-45 points, which means if you believe that the Patriots will win by more than two touchdowns, Houston is only going to get about 15 points this weekend. That’s it. Looking at the defense for the Patriots, we can start to understand why, as New England led the league in fewest points against with 250 – or roughly 16 points a game (15.6). At first that seems shockingly low for the Texans, but then if you think about it – it is the Texans. How exactly are they going to score? You can look at last week’s 27-14 win over Oakland and think that Houston can put up some points, but they had short fields and were lucky to capitalize on those chances. Osweiler only threw for 168 yards and one score, while he did scramble in for another. Lamar Miller rushed for the other touchdown, and he is the best chance for the Texans to find the end zone this week. I just think that New England has another one of these “tune-up” games here where they can pretty much do whatever they want on offense and coast through the second half. Brady could put up some big numbers early, but the one part of the Houston defense that should not be taken lightly is the secondary. Combining that with an expected big lead late and this all lines up for a big day for LeGarrette Blount. All of the Patriots could have big days with an expected score around 30 points, but Blount has the best odds to find the end zone at least once and two touchdowns would not surprise me at all. New England gets the job done and moves on to the AFC Championship Game next week. Pick: Patriots
- Latest Lines: New England Patriots -15.5 to -17, Over / Under 44 to 45 points
- Money Lines: New England -2000, Houston +1000
- Prediction: New England Patriots 34, Houston 13
- Pick: Patriots
KANSAS CITY (-1) vs. PITTSBURGH
(Sunday, 1:05PM Eastern, NBC)
Let’s just get this out of the way right at the start – Andy Reid is 16-2 after a bye week. That’s HUGE. You can qualify that stat any way you like, but winning 89% of the time in the NFL is a big, big stat no matter how you slice it. That is the exact scenario in play this week as Kansas City hosts the Steelers. Now, these two did square off way back in Week 4 in Pittsburgh, as the Steelers pounded the Chiefs 43-14 with Ben Roethlisberger throwing five touchdowns and completing passes to nine different Pittsburgh players. Expect Andy Reid’s staff to have broken that game down several different ways in the past week and be much more prepared for the air attack from the Steelers. That game got so far away from Kansas City that Alex Smith attempted 50 passes, which almost never happens.
As for what is in store this week, the Chiefs are going to have to step up their defense and slow down both Roethlisberger and also tailback LeVeon Bell, who had 144 yards rushing and 34 more receiving the first time they met. I say “slow down” because there is no way they can truly stop the Steeler offense. Kansas City will have to keep the Steelers below 30 points and also put up some offense of their own. Expect Tyreek Hill to touch the ball early and often as they hope his speed can break off a big play or two to change the field or find the end zone.
This is the toughest game to pick this weekend, and Las Vegas tends to agree with the point spread putting this game close to a coin flip. I am going to side with the home team as they are rested and prepared for Pittsburgh, and if Kansas City can get a decent ground game going they should be able to escape a tough contest with a narrow victory. Pick: Chiefs
- Latest Lines: Kansas City Chiefs -1 to -2, Over / Under 44 to 44.5 points
- Money Lines: Kansas City -120 to -130, Pittsburgh +100 to +110
- Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 24
- Pick: Chiefs
DALLAS (-4.5) vs. GREEN BAY
(Sunday, 4:40PM Eastern, FOX)
Green Bay put the finishing touches on Wild Card weekend with their 38-13 thumping of the Giants at Lambeau last Sunday. Now they get to travel to Dallas and face a rested Cowboys team that has the confidence of several months of victories behind them, including a Week 6 visit to the Packers that resulted in a 30-16 Dallas victory. The Cowboys moved the ball all day against Green Bay, as Ezekiel Elliott had over 150 yards rushing while Dak Prescott had three touchdown passes. The strategy on Sunday evening should be similar for Dallas – run the ball with their rookie back and use that stellar offensive line to help move the ball, control the clock and keep Aaron Rodgers on the sideline. So why on earth would I take Green Bay to win on the road, or at least cover? Well, I wanted to, but I flipped at the last moment and decided to take the Cowboys. Dallas has more rest and more experience since Week 6 for their rookie quarterback and running back, and now Jordy Nelson is probably out with broken ribs. I expect Aaron Rodgers to be the best player on the field, but Dallas is the best offensive team. I think Green Bay can keep it close, but Dallas will be just too much in the end. PICK: Cowboys
- Latest Lines: Dallas Cowboys -4.5, Over / Under 52 to 52.5 points
- Money Lines: Dallas -170 to -170, Green Bay +200 to +210
- Prediction: Dallas 31, Green Bay 24
- Pick: Cowboys
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
Before I get to my picks for the Divisional Round, I thought it might be valuable to provide my rankings of the common eight picks (against the spread, over/under) for these games:
- ATLANTA (-4.5) vs. SEATTLE
- NEW ENGLAND (-15.5) vs. HOUSTON
- DALLAS vs. GREEN BAY (OVER 52)
- ATLANTA vs. SEATTLE (OVER 51.5)
- NEW ENGLAND vs. HOUSTON (OVER 44)
- DALLAS (-4.5) vs. GREEN BAY
- KANSAS CITY vs. PITTSBURGH (OVER 44)
- KANSAS CITY (-1) vs. PITTSBURGH
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- DALLAS vs. GREEN BAY (OVER 52)
- SEATTLE “FOR THE WIN” (+200) vs. ATLANTA (Good odds)
- GREEN BAY “FOR THE WIN” (+210) vs. DALLAS (Good odds)
TEASERS
Note: You will see both sides of the same game in these teasers. That is done on purpose, because I have a really good feeling that some of these games land in the middle (near the Las Vegas line) so why not play both sides?
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER: ATLANTA (+1.5) vs. SEATTLE (OVER 45.5)
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER: DALLAS (+1.5) vs. GREEN BAY (OVER 46)
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+610 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) vs. HOUSTON
- DALLAS vs. GREEN BAY (OVER 46)
- GREEN BAY (+10.5) at DALLAS
- ATLANTA (+1.5) vs. SEATTLE
- DALLAS (+1.5) vs. GREEN BAY
- ATLANTA vs. SEATTLE (OVER 45.5)
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+890 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) vs. HOUSTON
- DALLAS vs. GREEN BAY (OVER 46)
- GREEN BAY (+10.5) at DALLAS
- ATLANTA (+1.5) vs. SEATTLE
- DALLAS (+1.5) vs. GREEN BAY
- ATLANTA vs. SEATTLE (OVER 45.5)
- NEW ENGLAND vs. HOUSTON (OVER 38)
- 8-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+1275 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) vs. HOUSTON
- DALLAS vs. GREEN BAY (OVER 46)
- GREEN BAY (+10.5) at DALLAS
- ATLANTA (+1.5) vs. SEATTLE
- DALLAS (+1.5) vs. GREEN BAY
- ATLANTA vs. SEATTLE (OVER 45.5)
- NEW ENGLAND vs. HOUSTON (OVER 38)
- KANSAS CITY vs. PITTSBURGH (OVER 44)
- 9-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+1825 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) vs. HOUSTON
- DALLAS vs. GREEN BAY (OVER 46)
- GREEN BAY (+10.5) at DALLAS
- ATLANTA (+1.5) vs. SEATTLE
- DALLAS (+1.5) vs. GREEN BAY
- ATLANTA vs. SEATTLE (OVER 45.5)
- NEW ENGLAND vs. HOUSTON (OVER 38)
- KANSAS CITY vs. PITTSBURGH (OVER 44)
- NEW ENGLAND vs. HOUSTON (UNDER 51)
- 10-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+2600 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) vs. HOUSTON
- DALLAS vs. GREEN BAY (OVER 46)
- GREEN BAY (+10.5) at DALLAS
- ATLANTA (+1.5) vs. SEATTLE
- DALLAS (+1.5) vs. GREEN BAY
- ATLANTA vs. SEATTLE (OVER 45.5)
- NEW ENGLAND vs. HOUSTON (OVER 38)
- KANSAS CITY vs. PITTSBURGH (OVER 44)
- NEW ENGLAND vs. HOUSTON (UNDER 51)
- PITTSBURGH (+8) at KANSAS CITY
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- ATLANTA (-4.5) vs. SEATTLE
- NEW ENGLAND (-15.5) vs. HOUSTON
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER GREEN BAY (+10.5) at DALLAS (OVER 46)
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+265 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) vs. HOUSTON
- DALLAS vs. GREEN BAY (OVER 46)
- GREEN BAY (+10.5) at DALLAS
- ATLANTA (+1.5) vs. SEATTLE
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+410 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) vs. HOUSTON
- DALLAS vs. GREEN BAY (OVER 46)
- GREEN BAY (+10.5) at DALLAS
- ATLANTA (+1.5) vs. SEATTLE
- ATLANTA vs. SEATTLE (OVER 45.5)
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+410 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) vs. HOUSTON
- DALLAS vs. GREEN BAY (OVER 46)
- GREEN BAY (+10.5) at DALLAS
- ATLANTA (+1.5) vs. SEATTLE
- DALLAS (+1.5) vs. GREEN BAY
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+165 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) vs. HOUSTON
- DALLAS vs. GREEN BAY (OVER 46)
- GREEN BAY (+10.5) at DALLAS
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Atlanta, New England, Green Bay / Dallas Over 52
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 3-1 (75.0%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 10.15-5.43 (65.1%)
- PICK OF WEEK:4-1 (80.0%)
Regular Season
- OVERALL: 124-127-5 (49.4%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 207-222-1 (48.3)
- PICK OF WEEK: 68-69-1 (49.6%)
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.