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Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
So I wrapped up the regular season in Week 17, and it was pretty much on par with how the rest of the regular season went. I had hoped to end on a winning weekend, but such was not the case. Strangely enough, I believe that was a good thing as I don't believe finishing the year at 51-52% is much better than 48-49%, so the loss makes me hungry to step it up for the playoffs. For those of you who have been with me over the years, you may remember that I have a pretty good track record in the postseason (fingers crossed). The reasoning I follow is pretty simple for January football - use Las Vegas against themselves these next few weeks. They are really, really good at what they do, and the numbers are going to be very on point for the playoff games. To combat this I use teasers (shocker, I know) almost exclusively to combine the games together and get more favorable outcome wagers. So here we go:
Bye week teams: Atlanta, Dallas, New England, Kansas City
Teams returning from a bye: None
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
HOUSTON (-3.5) vs. OAKLAND
(Saturday, 4:35PM Eastern, ESPN)
Wild Card Weekend starts off with what should be a slower pace game – oh come on. Really? Connor Cook vs. Brock Osweiler? Is THAT how we are starting this playoff party? I think I might show up a few hours late. ESPN got the short straw with these two pairing up to start the NFL weekend. They say you always save the best for last, but that often means you start with the worst. That means this game is the brussel sprouts and kale of the meal, while the meat, potatoes and dessert come after. Oh well, we cannot have all great games when quarterbacks get hurt. I really liked the Raiders this season, but the only way I could get behind Oakland is if a worse quarterback was facing them – oh yeah, Osweiler. Yikes.
So how do we decide with this ugly-fest about to lull our eyes to sleep for a few hours? Harken back to the NFC East in the 1980s and expect a lot of run calls here. Houston’s secondary is very underrated, as they have only given up 38 plays of 20 yards or more all season long. That does not bode well for Amari Cooper, who is clearly the big play receiver for the Raiders. Shutdown corner A.J. Bouye will be all over Cooper, which leaves Michael Crabtree as the wideout with the most upside. Oakland has three viable running backs to call upon, and I think all of them will be needed to move the ball this weekend. Houston is only giving up 4.0 yards per carry, and the Texans are very likely to stack the box and force Cook to beat them through the air. Houston does not want to rely on Osweiler to win them this game, so they are very fortunate that Lamar Miller has been practicing all week. I expect him to be the “star” of this game, right along with Nick Novak (did you really expect me NOT to mention a kicker this week?). Novak is my top kicking option for the weekend, and so are the Texans on defense with the Raiders expected to score just 16 points according to Las Vegas. Pick: Texans
- Latest Lines: Houston Texans -3.5, Over / Under 36.5 points
- Money Lines: Houston -190 to -200, Oakland +170 to +175
- Prediction: Houston Texans 20, Oakland 13
- Pick: Texans
SEATTLE (-8) vs. DETROIT
(Saturday, 8:15PM Eastern, NBC)
I thought that this was going to be one of the more challenging games to pick this week until I started to dig into Detroit. In a word – ew. In a second word – overrated. The defense has been bailed out all season long by Matthew Stafford’s comebacks in the fourth quarter, as Detroit has overcome a record eight fourth quarter deficits for a victory in the 2016 regular season. The big concern here is that Detroit only trailed by one score in all of those contests, and as we saw last week against Green Bay, two scores is a whole different ballgame. Fellow Footballguy staffer Phil Alexander (h/t) pointed out in this week’s DFS Roundtable that PFF’s Pat Thorman mentioned this great stat on Twitter – Detroit is 0-5 this year against playoff teams. Do we really think that Detroit will either be holding a lead or within a touchdown come the fourth quarter in Seattle this weekend? I do not, and I also do not give much credence to how Seattle played the 49ers last week. Seattle packed it in when they saw Atlanta cruising on the scoreboard, so they gave Russell Wilson a rest in the fourth quarter. That will not be happening Saturday night. While Darius Slay may blanket Doug Baldwin, I love the matchup for Jimmy Graham against the Detroit defense. Detroit was one of the worst teams against tight ends this season, and Graham should be in store for a big day. Detroit had a league worst 106.5 quarterback rating against them this year, and Wilson will capitalize on that, especially with not much production from Thomas Rawls of late. Seattle should be able to stuff the non-existent run game from the Lions (Zach Zenner – really?) and tee off on Stafford all evening. Seattle wins by double digits. PICK: Seahawks
- Latest Lines: Seattle Seahawks -8, Over / Under 43 points
- Money Lines: Seattle -350 to -400, Detroit +290 to +320
- Prediction: Seattle Seahawks 27, Detroit Lions 13
- Pick: Seahawks
PITTSBURGH (-10) vs. MIAMI
(Sunday, 1:05PM Eastern, CBS)
Las Vegas has finally caught up to reality, as they quite simply put out a bad starting number on this game with the Steelers only favored by 7.5 points. That has been bet up all the way to 10 and is looking to go higher as I write this. When the number was 7.5, the Steelers were my favorite play, but at 10.5 that gets worrisome. That said, the Steelers are poised to roll all over the Dolphins this weekend that it is hard to count all the reasons why, but I will try. Pittsburgh rested their starters last week, and Miami is without their top quarterback (Ryan Tannehill), who I should say has NOT been ruled out just yet, but most expect Matt Moore to get the start on Sunday. I make mention of Tannehill on the 1% chance he suits up, but I fully expect him to miss this game. Back to Pittsburgh, we have them getting healthier as tight end Ladarius Green should be ready to go in this one, and Miami has been burned of late by tight ends. Throw in that a rested LeVeon Bell could be motivated (as if he needs more motivation) after a Miami beat writer for Miami decided to say that Jay Ajayi was a better running back. Um, okay – way to put the spin on some stats from this season, but have you done the old eyeball test? Back to one more motivating factor – the Steelers lost to Miami back in Week 6, where the Dolphins topped Pittsburgh 30-15 in Miami where Ajayi posted over 200 yards rushing and two scores. Not to qualify those numbers that much, but Ajayi’s stats were inflated by a late 62-yard touchdown after Pittsburgh had an unsuccessful onsides kick. It was a quality run for sure, but how motivated was the defense after the score was 23-15 Miami with less than a minute to play? Ben Roethlisberger was also banged up in that Week 6 matchup, so that also contributed to the less than stellar offensive showing for the Steelers. Fast forward to this Sunday where the game is in Pittsburgh and the Steelers are healthy, rested and Miami lacks their top quarterback. As long as Pittsburgh controls the line of scrimmage and keeps Ajayi in check, I see the Steelers running away with this game, even if Ajayi gets 100 yards and a touchdown – as I don’t expect much more from the Dolphins this week. Pick: Steelers
- Latest Lines: Pittsburgh Steelers -10 to -10.5, Over / Under 46 to 46.5 points
- Money Lines: Pittsburgh -500 to -575, Miami +375 to +425
- Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers 34, Miami Dolphins 20
- Pick: Steelers
NEW YORK GIANTS (+5) at GREEN BAY
(Sunday, 4:40PM Eastern, FOX)
This game has some shootout potential to close out Wild Card Weekend, as Aaron Rodgers has been red hot of late and putting up a lot of yards and points on the scoreboard. The Giants knocked Washington out of the postseason last Sunday with an unexpected win, but that shed some light on that they are tuning up for the playoffs. A trip to frigid Green Bay is not going to be easy for the Giants, but the Packers have been yielding a lot of production to opposing quarterbacks this season. Green Bay has afforded quarterbacks a 95.9 rating against, which is the seventh worst of all 32 teams. To put that in perspective, here are the six teams that are worse – Detroit, Cleveland, the Jets, New Orleans, Indianapolis and San Francisco. Those are basically the “who’s who” in defenses to target quarterbacks against in daily fantasy in 2016, so Green Bay’s secondary is not in good company. The question that must be answered then is if Eli Manning can step up and deliver, and he has two Super Bowl rings to his credit that makes me think that he can this week. Odell Beckham Jr will be the top target for the Giants, but Sterling Shepard will also be a major factor, as will Rashad Jennings out of the backfield. I see this game as coming down to which quarterback has the better day in the cold, and I like the home team and hot arm of Aaron Rodgers here – but probably not a cover of those points. PICK: New York Giants
- Latest Lines: Green Bay Packers -4.5 to -5.5, Over / Under 44.5 points
- Money Lines: Green Bay -210 to -230, New York Giants +170 to +190
- Prediction: Green Bay 27, New York Giants 24
- Pick: New York Giants (to cover)
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
Before I get to my picks for Wild Card Weekend, I thought it might be valuable to provide my rankings of the common eight picks (against the spread, over/under) for these games:
- NEW YORK GIANTS at GREEN BAY (OVER 44.5)
- SEATTLE (-8) vs. DETROIT
- HOUSTON (-3.5) vs. OAKLAND
- PITTSBURGH (-10) vs. MIAMI
- NEW YORK GIANTS (+5) at GREEN BAY
- PITTSBURGH vs. MIAMI (OVER 46.5)
- HOUSTON vs. OAKLAND (UNDER 36.5)
- SEATTLE vs. DETROIT (UNDER 43)
Note: Given the spreads and the numbers, a 7-POINT TEASER (where ties either reduce (that tie is removed and the teaser reduces by one contest) or ties win) is the preferred option for the week. Here is an example of what I mean from 5 Dimes.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 4-TEAM, 7-POINT TEASER (+215 ODDS):
- NEW YORK GIANTS at GREEN BAY (OVER 37.5)
- SEATTLE (-1) vs. DETROIT
- HOUSTON (+3.5) vs. OAKLAND
- PITTSBURGH (-3) vs. MIAMI
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+320 ODDS):
- NEW YORK GIANTS at GREEN BAY (OVER 37.5)
- SEATTLE (-1) vs. DETROIT
- HOUSTON (+3.5) vs. OAKLAND
- PITTSBURGH (-3) vs. MIAMI
- NEW YORK GIANTS (+12) at GREEN BAY
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+460 ODDS):
- NEW YORK GIANTS at GREEN BAY (OVER 37.5)
- SEATTLE (-1) vs. DETROIT
- HOUSTON (+3.5) vs. OAKLAND
- PITTSBURGH (-3) vs. MIAMI
- NEW YORK GIANTS (+12) at GREEN BAY
- PITTSBURGH vs. MIAMI (OVER 39.5)
- 7-TEAM, 7-POINT TEASER (+650 ODDS):
- NEW YORK GIANTS at GREEN BAY (OVER 37.5)
- SEATTLE (-1) vs. DETROIT
- HOUSTON (+3.5) vs. OAKLAND
- PITTSBURGH (-3) vs. MIAMI
- NEW YORK GIANTS (+12) at GREEN BAY
- PITTSBURGH vs. MIAMI (OVER 39.5)
- HOUSTON vs. OAKLAND (UNDER 43.5)
- SEATTLE vs. DETROIT (UNDER 50)
- 8-TEAM, 7-POINT TEASER (+900 ODDS):
- NEW YORK GIANTS at GREEN BAY (OVER 37.5)
- SEATTLE (-1) vs. DETROIT
- HOUSTON (+3.5) vs. OAKLAND
- PITTSBURGH (-3) vs. MIAMI
- NEW YORK GIANTS (+12) at GREEN BAY
- PITTSBURGH vs. MIAMI (OVER 39.5)
- HOUSTON vs. OAKLAND (UNDER 43.5)
- SEATTLE vs. DETROIT (UNDER 50)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 7-POINT TEASER (-143): HOUSTON (+3.5) vs. OAKLAND (UNDER 42.5)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 7-POINT TEASER (-143): SEATTLE (-1) vs. DETROIT (UNDER 50)
- 7-POINT TEASER (-143): PITTSBURGH (-3) vs. MIAMI (OVER 39.5)
- 7-POINT TEASER (-143): NEW YORK GIANTS (+12) at GREEN BAY (OVER 37.5)
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Houston, Pittsburgh, Seattle, New York Giants, New York Giants (Over)
Last Week
- OVERALL: 6-10 (37.5%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 6.65-23 (22.4%)
- PICK OF WEEK:3-6 (33.3%)
Season
- OVERALL: 124-127-5 (49.4%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 207-222-1 (48.3)
- PICK OF WEEK: 68-69-1 (49.6%)
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.