Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Once again I had a good week on the “Stars”, but overall the picks were mediocre. The good news is that the numbers are right around 50% for the year, so while it has been an up and down season, I am trending in the right direction as I have brought things to a respectable (even if not winning) outcome for the year. With just two weeks left, it all comes down to motivation for all the teams in play. That should make the picks easier, I believe. Here we go:
Bye week teams: None
Teams returning from a bye: None
PLEASE BE MINDFUL THAT MANY GAMES ARE ON SATURDAY THIS WEEK!!!
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) PHILADELPHIA (+3.5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
Wait a minute Jeff, weren’t you just talking about going with teams that are motivated? Yes, I did – but it is not just teams with playoff aspirations that have motivations. The Eagles have been playing hard all year long, just not getting favorable results. The Giants are very much a one-dimensional team on offense (Odell Beckham, Jr.) and then they rely on their underrated defense. That is just fine in this one as Philadelphia – from my math – should be a favorite at home in the rematch from Week 9. That was a tough one as the Eagles had just lost in overtime to the Cowboys on the prior Monday and New York had home field advantage after their bye week. Two weeks of prep time is huge in the NFL, while the Eagles were on a short week. Last time Wentz threw two picks early and the Giants were off to the races, but still Philadelphia only lost by five on the road. I think the Eagles can cover the field goal and may like the spoiler role here on their final nationally televised game of 2016. PICK: Eagles
Once again – most games are on SATURDAY this week. Keep that in mind for all your NFL interests.
(Saturday) ATLANTA (-2.5) at CAROLINA
Atlanta sits at 9-5 and they are poised to win the NFC South, but they are still playing for seeding as well. Carolina will not go quietly, and they have a crazy scenario to still get into the playoffs even with their 6-8 record (Washington has to tie a game, so do not hold your breath). The Falcons trounced the 49ers at home last week and they get a suspect Panthers secondary. I have plenty of confidence in the Atlanta passing game to put up enough points for a strong road win here in Charlotte. PICK: Falcons
(Saturday) BUFFALO (-3.5) vs. MIAMI
Believe it or not, but both teams still have postseason chances (I will not break down what the Bills need, consider it a longshot), so both squads have some motivation on top of the divisional matchup here. Miami is coming off of a big win over the Jets last Saturday, so they get a full week of rest. Buffalo rolled over Cleveland on Sunday, so that was pretty much a restful experience as well. This is going to be a close game and I have the Bills winning by about a touchdown despite how well the Dolphins threw the ball last week, so I will stick with that call. PICK: Bills
(Saturday) WASHINGTON (-3) at CHICAGO
I just checked NFLweather.com and the forecast said “foggy” and 34 degrees for this game. If you have ever followed the Eagles, Chicago plus foggy sends chills up your spine (and if you don’t know about The Fog Bowl, you should take five minutes and watch this). Enough history – this game is going to be an interesting matchup between a team that is playing for the postseason in Washington but is also coming off a bad showing on Monday Night Football at home against a Panthers team that really has nothing to play for – which is the case for the Bears.. Even worse for Washington is that they gave up over five yards a carry to Jonathan Stewart (25-132), and Jordan Howard will be rushing at least that much on Saturday. Can Kirk Cousins overcome these hurdles and get a win? I think he can, and the Giants loom in Week 17 for Washington, so they have to come away with a victory here. PICK: Washington
(Saturday) NEW ENGLAND (-16.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
The point spread will surely be tested in this one, but it looks to me that the Jets are beyond finished for this season. The Patriots need a better tune-up after a tough game against Denver last week, so this could be a game that is more like homecoming than a December AFC East showdown. Bill Belichick loses no love for the Jets, so a 30+ point victory is definitely within reason. I see New England certainly getting 30 points, but I do not see the Jets scoring two touchdowns, so that tells me to take the Patriots and hope that they cover that huge number. PICK: Patriots
(Saturday) SAN DIEGO (-6) at CLEVELAND
The Chargers may not be playing that great of late, but check out their 0-14 opponent here. Cleveland may be thinking that this is their last true shot at a win (they go to Pittsburgh next weekend), but San Diego will run and throw pretty much however they want against the Browns, and Robert Griffin III III is good for at least two turnovers. San Diego by double digits. PICK: Chargers
(Saturday) TENNESSEE (-4.5) at JACKSONVILLE
The Titans have a very good shot at the AFC South while the Jaguars are checking tee times for the first week of January. Call it however you want, I am always going to side with a team with something to play for facing a team that seemed to check out about a month ago. PICK: Titans
(Saturday) GREEN BAY (-6) vs. MINNESOTA
Both of these teams need to pick a personality and stick with it. First the Vikings are a strong defense with Adrian Peterson, then their defense falls apart along with their offensive line. The Packers could not run all year long, yet now Ty Montgomery rushes for 150 yards and two scores against Chicago. Minnesota was trounced by the Colts and could barely move the ball last week. So who is who? I am taking Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to keep their playoff push going, even on the road. PICK: Packers
(Saturday) OAKLAND (-3.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The Raiders barely survived last week against the Chargers on the road, but they head home to face Indianapolis after the Colts dominated the Vikings last weekend. Derek Carr’s finger does not seem to be right, but Latavius Murray should put up great numbers against the Colts this week. Oakland has a number of options to move the ball and they will also bring pressure on Andrew Luck. Oakland is playing for a playoff spot and the AFC West title and they want a win before having to go to Denver next weekend. PICK: Raiders
(Saturday) TAMPA BAY (+3) at NEW ORLEANS
I get the whole Drew Brees at home in a dome thing, but Tampa Bay is playing so well right now and they just beat Brees in Tampa Bay two weeks ago, 16-11. Brees did virtually nothing that game, and defense travels quite well. Last week the Cardinals scored 41 on the Saints (and lost) so I like the Buccaneers to rebound after losing to Dallas on Sunday Night Football and have a strong showing in the Big Easy. PICK: Buccaneers
(Saturday) SAN FRANCISCO (+4) at LOS ANGELES
Is anyone in California really going to go out on Christmas Eve to go watch this game? I know I would not bother to pay a parking fee for it, let alone buy a ticket. This has all the makings of an ugly contest, but I will take Carlos Hyde and Colin Kaepernick to get enough points to cover whatever the Rams can muster. PICK: 49ers
(Saturday) SEATTLE (-8) vs. ARIZONA
The Cardinals may have scored a ton of points last week, but they gave up even more in a 48-41 loss at home to New Orleans. Seattle has been off since last Thursday and now they get to host a road-weary Cardinals team that has flown all over the country the past few months. I think the point total of 43.5 is far too low as both offenses can score at will, but I do like the Seattle defense way more than Arizona’s of late. Tough call with Seattle being favored by more than a touchdown, but I will take the home team to win by at least nine, something like 34-24. PICK: Seahawks
(Saturday) HOUSTON (-1) vs. CINCINNATI
Saturday’s late slate closes with a team gunning for a divisional title in the Texans against a Bengals team playing out the string. I like Houston here, even with a new quarterback in Tom Savage under center (who might be the better option than Brock Osweiler anyway). PICK: Texans
PITTSBURGH (-5) vs. BALTIMORE
This game has been circled by both teams for weeks as a virtual AFC North title game. The problem I see for the Ravens is that without Jimmy Smith, I do not see a way that they can slow down or stop Antonio Brown. Joe Flacco and the entire passing game will have to step it up, but I like Ben Roethlisberger to throw to Brown (and Bell) early and often and win the division in a 27-16 type result. PICK: Steelers
KANSAS CITY (-3.5) vs. DENVER
The weather calls for cold and winds in Kansas City on Sunday evening, which sets this game up as a run-heavy contest. That clearly favors the Chiefs, who will be at home and looking to keep pace with Oakland atop the AFC West standings. Denver’s offense was stuck in neutral (if not reverse) at home against New England on Sunday, and Kansas City will be pressuring Trevor Siemian all night long. Chiefs by at least a touchdown, 23-13. PICK: Chiefs
(Monday) DETROIT (+7.5) vs. DALLAS
I thought there was a limit to national television appearances, but maybe not. Dallas seems to get a single game spot every week, but this should be a good one. Detroit has a solid passing game, and that is the way to pick on the Cowboys, but the offense for Dallas will be tested against a very underrated Detroit defense. A loss by Detroit and a win by Green Bay sets up a one-game showdown in Detroit next week for the NFC North, so the Lions not only want to gauge their playoff chances against Dallas but want a win to move up those standings. Matthew Stafford will have to score more than the six meager points they had against the Giants last week, else it will be a very long night for Lions fans. I think Detroit gets about 20 points, but that might not be enough for a win – but I like the Lions getting more than a touchdown of a head start. This also has the feel of a trap game for Dallas, so be careful if you are on the Cowboys this week. They just locked up the division and might have a letdown. PICK: Lions
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- (Thursday) PHILADELPHIA (+3.5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
- (Saturday) BUFFALO (-3.5) vs. MIAMI
- (Thursday) PHILADELPHIA “FOR THE WIN” (+150) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
- (Saturday) MIAMI “FOR THE WIN” (+175) at BUFFALO
- (Saturday) SAN FRANCISCO “FOR THE WIN” (+165) at LOS ANGELES
- BALTIMORE “FOR THE WIN” (+220) at PITTSBURGH
- (Monday) DETROIT “FOR THE WIN” (+300) vs. DALLAS
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+265 ODDS):
- (Saturday) SEATTLE (-2) vs. ARIZONA
- (Saturday) GREEN BAY (EVEN) vs. MINNESOTA
- (Saturday) SAN DIEGO (EVEN) at CLEVELAND
- (Saturday) TENNESSEE (+1.5) at JACKSONVILLE
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+410 ODDS):
- (Saturday) SEATTLE (-2) vs. ARIZONA
- (Saturday) GREEN BAY (EVEN) vs. MINNESOTA
- (Saturday) SAN DIEGO (EVEN) at CLEVELAND
- (Saturday) TENNESSEE (+1.5) at JACKSONVILLE
- PITTSBURGH (+1) vs. BALTIMORE
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+610 ODDS):
- (Saturday) SEATTLE (-2) vs. ARIZONA
- (Saturday) GREEN BAY (EVEN) vs. MINNESOTA
- (Saturday) SAN DIEGO (EVEN) at CLEVELAND
- (Saturday) TENNESSEE (+1.5) at JACKSONVILLE
- PITTSBURGH (+1) vs. BALTIMORE
- (Saturday) ATLANTA (+3.5) at CAROLINA
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+890 ODDS):
- (Saturday) SEATTLE (-2) vs. ARIZONA
- (Saturday) GREEN BAY (EVEN) vs. MINNESOTA
- (Saturday) SAN DIEGO (EVEN) at CLEVELAND
- (Saturday) TENNESSEE (+1.5) at JACKSONVILLE
- PITTSBURGH (+1) vs. BALTIMORE
- (Saturday) ATLANTA (+3.5) at CAROLINA
- (Saturday) SAN FRANCISCO (+10) at LOS ANGELES
The next three teasers are at 6.5, with ties winning, since I like three teams that are -3.5:
- 8-TEAM, 6.5-POINT TEASER (+1000 ODDS, TIES WIN):
- (Saturday) SEATTLE (-1.5) vs. ARIZONA
- (Saturday) GREEN BAY (+0.5) vs. MINNESOTA
- (Saturday) SAN DIEGO (+0.5) at CLEVELAND
- (Saturday) TENNESSEE (+2) at JACKSONVILLE
- PITTSBURGH (+1.5) vs. BALTIMORE
- (Saturday) ATLANTA (+4) at CAROLINA
- (Saturday) SAN FRANCISCO (+10.5) at LOS ANGELES
- (Saturday) BUFFALO (+3) vs. MIAMI
- 9-TEAM, 6.5-POINT TEASER (+1550 ODDS, TIES WIN):
- (Saturday) SEATTLE (-1.5) vs. ARIZONA
- (Saturday) GREEN BAY (+0.5) vs. MINNESOTA
- (Saturday) SAN DIEGO (+0.5) at CLEVELAND
- (Saturday) TENNESSEE (+2) at JACKSONVILLE
- PITTSBURGH (+1.5) vs. BALTIMORE
- (Saturday) ATLANTA (+4) at CAROLINA
- (Saturday) SAN FRANCISCO (+10.5) at LOS ANGELES
- (Saturday) BUFFALO (+3) vs. MIAMI
- (Saturday) OAKLAND (+3) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- 10-TEAM, 6.5-POINT TEASER (+1925 ODDS, TIES WIN):
- (Saturday) SEATTLE (-1.5) vs. ARIZONA
- (Saturday) GREEN BAY (+0.5) vs. MINNESOTA
- (Saturday) SAN DIEGO (+0.5) at CLEVELAND
- (Saturday) TENNESSEE (+2) at JACKSONVILLE
- PITTSBURGH (+1.5) vs. BALTIMORE
- (Saturday) ATLANTA (+4) at CAROLINA
- (Saturday) SAN FRANCISCO (+10.5) at LOS ANGELES
- (Saturday) BUFFALO (+3) vs. MIAMI
- (Saturday) OAKLAND (+3) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- KANSAS CITY (+3) vs. DENVER
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+165 ODDS):
- (Saturday) SEATTLE (-2) vs. ARIZONA
- (Saturday) GREEN BAY (EVEN) vs. MINNESOTA
- (Saturday) SAN DIEGO (EVEN) at CLEVELAND
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Philadelphia, Atlanta, Buffalo, San Diego, Tennessee, Green Bay, Oakland, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Detroit
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 6-9-1 (40%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 50.35-13 (79.5%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 2-6-1 (25%)
Season
- OVERALL: 109-110-5 (49.8%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 195.45-187-1 (51.1%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 59-58 (50.4%)