Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Another successful week in the books. Byes are now over, which means we have 16 games every week the rest of the way. Let’s see if we can keep the winning streak going. Time to dive right in to Week 14. Here we go:
Bye week teams: None
Teams returning from a bye: Cleveland, Tennessee
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) KANSAS CITY (-3) vs. OAKLAND
What a huge game this is, especially for a Thursday. The 10-2 Raiders travel to face the 9-3 Chiefs in a battle for first place in the AFC West. Back in Week 6, Kansas City went to Oakland and won 26-10, and now the Chiefs are favored by just about a field goal at home to sweep the Raiders for the season. Oakland has won every game since that loss, but Kansas City had their number with a strong run game (three rushing scores and Spencer Ware had over 100 yards) and efficient passing (Alex Smith was 19 for 22 for 224 yards). Oakland struggled on offense at home, and now they have a short week to get ready to visit Kansas City. I can see either team winning here, but I like home teams on Thursdays. Kansas City knows a win puts them in first place, and they have the recipe to beat Oakland. PICK: Chiefs
PITTSBURGH (-1.5) at BUFFALO
Another tough game to pick as the Steelers head north to Buffalo. Both teams are about dead even against the pass and the run on defense, and they are also similar on offense when it comes to the run game with two top end feature backs. The difference makers for me are in the Pittsburgh passing game, as Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown surpass Tyrod Taylor and Sammie Watkins. Pittsburgh knows that they must keep winning to secure the AFC North while the Bills are struggling again at 6-6. Not an easy pick, but I will go with Pittsburgh here. PICK: Steelers
TENNESSEE (EVEN) vs. DENVER
Wow. Can I get an easy one, please? Denver has a stifling pass defense and a stagnant passing game. The Titans are underrated almost across the board. With Tennessee at 6-6 and hosting Denver, we are going to see a true test of that Denver run defense as I expect DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry to fully put forth the “Exotic Smashmouth” offense that the Titans talked up so much this offseason. Tennessee’s weakness is at cornerback, but I do not think Paxton Lynch (or Trevor Siemian) can take advantage. I expect McCoy, Henry and even Marcus Mariota to run a ton and get a close win at home. PICK: Titans
PHILADELPHIA (+1.5) vs. WASHINGTON
Both Washington and Philadelphia are heading in the wrong direction of late, as both have losing streaks heading into Week 14. Neither team has the look of a playoff team, so I am going with the home team that has played well at home (4-1) and has a significant advantage in running the ball against a Washington team near the bottom of all run defense categories this year. Plus I’ll take an extra point head start. PICK: Eagles
ARIZONA (+1.5) at MIAMI
Is this about the 10th time the Cardinals have gone to the East Coast this year? Actually it is about half of that number, or to be precise, the fifth time Arizona has had a 1PM Eastern kickoff this year – and the third time in four weeks. Ouch. There are still two reasons to take the underdog Cardinals here – David Johnson and how poorly Miami defended in Baltimore last week. The Arizona defense is pretty good as well, and then you have Carson Palmer’s 300-yard game on Sunday – okay, maybe there are plenty of reasons to take the Cardinals and the point, which I will. PICK: Cardinals
MINNESOTA (-3) at JACKSONVILLE
This is less of a vote for the Vikings than it is against the Jaguars in this one. Minnesota finally gets to play on Sunday again after two Thursday games in a row, and the extra rest should help them on the trip to Florida. Jacksonville continues to stumble their way towards the end of the season with virtually no ground game and Blake Bortles only knowing how to produce in garbage time. I expect a rather one-sided game towards Minnesota in this one with Sam Bradford playing above average while his defense dominates the Jaguars. Minnesota by double digits in an ugly one, 23-10. PICK: Vikings
INDIANAPOLIS (-6) vs. HOUSTON
The Colts just had their “get right” game on Monday Night Football, pounding the Jets 41-10. Meanwhile Houston has scored 20 or fewer points in 8 of 12 games this season. Can the Texans actually keep up with Andrew Luck? I don’t think so, and the Colts will get after Brock Osweiler at home to create some turnovers. I like the Colts to win going away in a key divisional matchup. PICK: Colts
SAN DIEGO (+1.5) at CAROLINA
At some point, the public is going to become aware that the Panthers are not good this season. At 4-8, they have lost two-thirds of their games, yet they are favored over the Chargers, who just did lose to Tampa Bay, but the Buccaneers are another underrated franchise right now. Philip Rivers does throw a few too many interceptions, but the Panthers are very susceptible in their pass defense and I expect that is how the Chargers will go after Carolina this week. Ted Ginn Jr may get loose for a long one again, but I see San Diego getting a lot of points on that Panthers’ defense. PICK: Chargers
CINCINNATI (-5.5) at CLEVELAND
Before I dismiss this one too quickly, let’s take a quick look at the Browns. Their remaining schedule has this game at home, then a trip to Buffalo, hosting San Diego and then a final visit to Pittsburgh to close the season. If Week 14 is not their best chance to win, maybe it is Week 16, but Cleveland is easily staring at 0-16 if they do not pull this upset off this week. Robert Griffin III III is the likely starter, but let’s go back to the Bengals now. They looked solid at home against the Eagles last week and Andy Dalton had a strong game – which does not bode well for that weak Browns secondary. I expect Cincinnati to get the win here over the Browns (surprise) but I would not be shocked if Cleveland puts up a good fight. PICK: Bengals
DETROIT (-8) vs. CHICAGO
The Lions are 8-4 and have a two-game lead in the NFC North. Let that sink in for a moment. Not only is Matthew Stafford playing well, but the defense has stepped up of late. As for Chicago, well, after Jordan Howard it gets rather thin on offense with Matt Barkley at quarterback and second stringers at wide receiver and tight end. Detroit should win by double digits to extend their divisional lead. PICK: Lions
SAN FRANCISCO (-2) vs. NEW YORK JETS
Colin Kaepernick remains the starter despite a meltdown in the snow (how is that possible?) last week in Chicago. The Jets just got hammered by the Colts on Monday Night Football, and now have a short week and a long trip out to California. This game will be a true test of the 49ers run defense, as New York should be giving Matt Forte 30+ carries this week (along with several to Bilal Powell). Can the 49ers keep up? I think they can as Kaepernick should rebound well and get the victory at home over a Jets team that is actually playing much worse than San Francisco right now. PICK: 49ers
TAMPA BAY (-2.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
The Buccaneers are going overlooked by many right now, but not me. Four wins in a row is not an easy accomplishment in the NFL, but here we have a Tampa Bay team that has not lost for over a month despite injuries at running back and wide receiver. Now the Saints come to town, and while Drew Brees is a probable future Hall of Famer, he does not do nearly as well on the road. The Saints are 5-7 and the Buccaneer defense is getting better every week. Throw in that Doug Martin is healthy again (along with a returning Charles Sims) and this is the perfect time for Tampa Bay to make a statement that they are really for real and a playoff contender. Tampa Bay 31, Saints 24. PICK: Buccaneers
ATLANTA (-5.5) at LOS ANGELES
I do not think I can ever take the Rams the rest of this season, no matter what the spread looks like. Their offense is dreadful and while the defense is pretty good, Atlanta has way too many weapons on offense. Take the Falcons for a double-digit victory on the road. PICK: Falcons
GREEN BAY (+3) vs. SEATTLE
I get that Seattle was impressive on Sunday Night Football against Carolina – but did you read the part earlier about how the Panthers are 4-8 and just not that good? Green Bay has had their own struggles this season, but they have won two in a row and are 4-2 at home. The long range forecast calls for snow (shocking) but Aaron Rodgers will have the offense ready. The matchup that matters the most here is Seattle’s loss of Earl Thomas, as I expect the Packers to throw deep early and often despite a little snow and push the defense all game. Thomas Rawls will try and pound the ball inside, but Green Bay has a reasonably solid front seven and they will look to make Russell Wilson beat them. This game should be very entertaining and a possible shootout – even in snow – but I like both offenses to excel. With that being the case, I will take a home team getting a head start most of the time, and I will in this instance. PICK: Packers
DALLAS (-3) at NEW YORK GIANTS
I really expected this point spread to be above a field goal, but the Giants were the one team that gave the Cowboys a loss this year – in Week 1. Since then, Dak Prescott has really developed as a quarterback and Ezekiel Elliott has become a dominant rusher. Eli Manning will still try and keep his team in this one with Odell Beckham Jr, but after his favorite target there just is not that much offense left in the tank. I like Dallas to win the NFC East on Sunday Night Football this week. PICK: Cowboys
(Monday) NEW ENGLAND (-7) vs. BALTIMORE
Let’s slow down on how much we love Joe Flacco this week. New England is improving every week on defense, and Tom Brady is still Tom Brady, even without Rob Gronkowski. The Patriots have a young wide receiver who is stepping up in Malcolm Mitchell, and he can get open at all depths of the field. That is not good news for the Ravens, who have struggled against good passing attacks all year. LeGarrette Blount may struggle to find running room, but Brady and Bill Belichick will find ways to move the ball on a Baltimore defense that has several holes to exploit. Baltimore cannot afford to get in a shootout, as they have only scored more than 24 points four times this season – twice against Cleveland, once in a 28-27 loss to the Raiders, and last week’s surprising 38-6 effort over Miami. I like New England to surpass that 24 number and hold Baltimore back enough to cover the touchdown point spread, 30-20. PICK: Patriots
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- PHILADELPHIA (+1.5) vs. WASHINGTON
- SAN DIEGO (+1.5) at CAROLINA
- CINCINNATI (-6) at CLEVELAND
- ATLANTA (-5.5) at LOS ANGELES
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER: DETROIT (-2) vs. CHICAGO (OVER 37.5)
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+265 ODDS):
- DETROIT (-2.5) vs. CHICAGO
- ARIZONA (+7.5) at MIAMI
- ATLANTA (+0.5) at LOS ANGELES
- SAN DIEGO (+7.5) at CAROLINA
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+410 ODDS):
- DETROIT (-2.5) vs. CHICAGO
- ARIZONA (+7.5) at MIAMI
- ATLANTA (+0.5) at LOS ANGELES
- SAN DIEGO (+7.5) at CAROLINA
- CINCINNATI (+0.5) at CLEVELAND
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+610 ODDS):
- DETROIT (-2.5) vs. CHICAGO
- ARIZONA (+7.5) at MIAMI
- ATLANTA (+0.5) at LOS ANGELES
- SAN DIEGO (+7.5) at CAROLINA
- CINCINNATI (+0.5) at CLEVELAND
- INDIANAPOLIS (EVEN) vs. HOUSTON
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+890 ODDS):
- DETROIT (-2.5) vs. CHICAGO
- ARIZONA (+7.5) at MIAMI
- ATLANTA (+0.5) at LOS ANGELES
- SAN DIEGO (+7.5) at CAROLINA
- CINCINNATI (+0.5) at CLEVELAND
- INDIANAPOLIS (EVEN) vs. HOUSTON
- DETROIT vs. CHICAGO (OVER 37.5)
- 8-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+1275 ODDS):
- DETROIT (-2.5) vs. CHICAGO
- ARIZONA (+7.5) at MIAMI
- ATLANTA (+0.5) at LOS ANGELES
- SAN DIEGO (+7.5) at CAROLINA
- CINCINNATI (+0.5) at CLEVELAND
- INDIANAPOLIS (EVEN) vs. HOUSTON
- DETROIT vs. CHICAGO (OVER 37.5)
- TAMPA BAY (+3.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
- 9-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+1825 ODDS):
- DETROIT (-2.5) vs. CHICAGO
- ARIZONA (+7.5) at MIAMI
- ATLANTA (+0.5) at LOS ANGELES
- SAN DIEGO (+7.5) at CAROLINA
- CINCINNATI (+0.5) at CLEVELAND
- INDIANAPOLIS (EVEN) vs. HOUSTON
- DETROIT vs. CHICAGO (OVER 37.5)
- TAMPA BAY (+3.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
- PHILADELPHIA (+7.5) vs. WASHINGTON
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- ARIZONA (+1.5) at MIAMI
- TAMPA BAY (+1.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+165 ODDS):
- DETROIT (-2.5) vs. CHICAGO
- ARIZONA (+7.5) at MIAMI
- ATLANTA (+0.5) at LOS ANGELES
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+165 ODDS):
- DETROIT (-2.5) vs. CHICAGO
- ARIZONA (+7.5) at MIAMI
- SAN DIEGO (+7.5) at CAROLINA
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Arizona, Indianapolis, San Diego, Cincinnati, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Atlanta
Last Week
- OVERALL: 10-5 (66.7%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 15.75-10 (61.2%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 5-3 (62.5%)
Season
- OVERALL: 95-94-3 (50.3%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 137.8-161-1 (46.1%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 54-48 (52.9%)
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
