Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Week 13 was one of the best weeks of the year, as I picked the correct games to put in my Best Bets (47.4-15, 76%) and Picks of the Week (5-1, 83%). That’s what happens when you put in the work and have several contests that you like. As much as I would like to build on that result, I really am struggling to like many of the games for this coming week. Let that be the takeaway for Week 14 – not all weeks are worth a big investment. Pick and choose the ones you really like. Now, let’s get down to the games for Week 14. Here we go:
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
Bye week teams: None.
(Thursday) ARIZONA (-7.5) vs. MINNESOTA
A short week for both teams on Thursday, and it is not a divisional matchup so both teams have a learning curve as far as game plans and film study. That favors the home team, Arizona, as does the fact that the Vikings are going to be without many of their starting linebackers. Arizona is 10-2 and has won six games in a row, and they have their eyes set on the second seed in the NFC. Arizona’s defense can keep Adrian Peterson in check, at least enough to force Teddy Bridgewater to make uncomfortable throws. I like Carson Palmer to get the job done with two solid backs to rely on and the Cardinals to win by 10 or more. PICK: Cardinals
BUFFALO (EVEN) vs. PHILADELPHIA
Here is the first game I really don’t know about. Can you trust Philadelphia, really? Well, what about Buffalo? You know that LeSean McCoy will be all geared up for his return to Lincoln Financial Field, but Tyrod Taylor is going to be the wild card here that will cause so many problems and mismatches for the Eagles. This will be hard fought but I think Philadelphia can have a letdown and McCoy finds the end zone at least once. Interesting that the Bills play the NFC East three times the next three weeks. PICK: Bills
SEATTLE (-6) at BALTIMORE
Okay, give me one reason to take the Ravens. Seattle’s offense is humming on the ground and through the air, and Baltimore is struggling with a virtual second string (or deeper) starting. Normally you would go against a West Coast team playing their second game in a row at 1PM on the East Coast, but the Ravens are a mess. I just read Jimmy Clausen is taking first team reps, and he wasn’t even on the team a month ago. I don’t see them even getting 10 points. Seattle is an easy call. PICK: Seahawks
SAN FRANCISCO (+1.5) at CLEVELAND
Both teams appear to be terrible, but both offenses have shown glimmers of performing this season. The 49ers just won in overtime in Chicago last week and Blaine Gabbert and Shaun Draughn have been playing well of late. Given that Cleveland cannot stop the run very well and who knows how Johnny Maziel will do this week (if he starts, I assume he is), I like San Francisco to win this one with relative ease. Only some Manziel Magic might make it close, but I like taking hot teams in these sorts of matchups. PICK: 49ers
DETROIT (+1) at ST. LOUIS
In a word – yuck. The Rams have been horrible of late with five losses in a row, while Detroit has been up and down all year long. They are more up than down of late though with good showings on Thanksgiving and last Thursday against Green Bay. As I mentioned earlier, I tend to go with hotter teams, even if it is tepid vs. luke warm. Gladly taking the point here. PICK: Lions
NEW YORK JETS (-7) vs. TENNESSEE
The Titans head to New Jersey after their first home win in more than a year, a high-scoring affair with Jacksonville. The Jets are technically coming off a road game against the Giants, but it was held in their stadium so that road win is partly a home victory. Either way, the matchup for Tennessee last week came down to Marcus Mariota running and throwing the ball all over the place against a suspect Jacksonville defense, while the Jets held Eli Manning in check last week. The Jets’ passing game will take full advantage of the Titans weak secondary, setting up the run and for New York to control the game throughout. I like the Jets to score early and often and coast to a big win here as they push for a Wild Card spot. PICK: Jets
PITTSBURGH (+3) at CINCINNATI
The Bengals coasted last week against Cleveland, on their way to locking up the AFC North. Pittsburgh made short work of the Colts at home, lighting up Indianapolis with their big play offense on Sunday Night Football. I think that this game will be relatively close, even though the Bengals are clearly the better team, but Cincinnati could have a little bit of a letdown while the Steelers are trying to claw their way into the AFC Wild Card race. I see this one as a shootout that can go in either team’s direction, so that screams “take the points” to me. PICK: Steelers
JACKSONVILLE (EVEN) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Earlier this year, this game could have been pointed towards as a big AFC South matchup, but now with Andrew Luck out and the Jaguars coming off a loss to Tennessee, this is more about who is healthy and who can regroup enough to get a win. The Colts were torn apart by the Steelers last Sunday night, while Jacksonville was scoring points at a record pace with the Titans. While I would like to say that the Colts will win because they need it more and that they are just 6-6 but tied for first in the division, I don’t see it with Matt Hasselbeck as the starter. Allen Robinson had a big game last week and he could easily do it again against the Colts. I can honestly see either team winning, but I am taking the offense that is scoring more points with regularity. PICK: Jaguars
KANSAS CITY (-10) vs. SAN DIEGO
I was surprised by this big number at first, but it made more sense the more I looked at it. Yes, the Chiefs are susceptible to wide receivers, but do the Chargers really have any left? Everyone is hurt for San Diego, and we are talking about the replacement starters – Dontrelle Inman and Stevie Johnson. If they cannot go, this could be a shutout for the Chiefs. I could see Kansas City running 50+ times with their two backs and cruising in this contest. PICK: Chiefs
WASHINGTON (+3) at CHICAGO
Neither the Bears nor Washington really deserves a win in Week 14, but odds are that one of them will get one. Washington fumbled away a game to Dallas at home on Monday Night Football, while the Bears let Blaine Gabbert run and thow all over them for an overtime win. Why do we like either squad here? I will reluctantly take Washington and the points as they have playoff hopes, but they have not won all year on the road. I don’t like either side, really. PICK: Washingon
CAROLINA (-7.5) vs. ATLANTA
I first thought that if any team was to come between the Panthers and a perfect 16-0 regular season, it would be Atlanta. That still might be the case, but not on the road. I lke the Panthers to regroup, build their defense back up and shut down Julio Jones in Carolina. Atlanta has not looked good in more than a month and I do not see that changing this week. PICK: Panthers
TAMPA BAY (-3.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
The Saints had a lot of offense going last week against Carolina, but they were up for that game because they were (A) at home and (B) trying to prevent Carolina from going 12-0. They fell short, and now they go to Tampa Bay to face the surprising 6-6 Buccaneers who think that they have a shot at the postseason. Tampa has a realistic chance with the Saints and Bears at home sandwiching a trip to St. Louis. Week 17 looks like a loss (at Carolina), so they must win their next three games to have a real chance. I think that they get the job done, at least this week at home. The Buccaneer defense shut down Atlanta last week and they should do well against New Orleans. Tampa wins, 27-17. PICK: Buccaneers
DENVER (-7) vs. OAKLAND
The Raiders gave the Chiefs a good run for their money last week in Oakland, but a trip to Denver is a completely different story. Denver nearly pitched a shutout in San Diego last week, and their defense looks elite across the board. Derek Carr will try and throw all he can against a tough defense, but I like Brock Osweiler to step up again and show everyone that the Broncos are better with him as their quarterback. Denver needs to keep winning to pressure Cincinnati and New England for a bye, and I think they get the job done by double digits here. PICK: Broncos
GREEN BAY (-7) vs. DALLAS
Let’s be honest for a moment – Dallas was very lucky to get a win in Washington on Monday night. Their offense looks terrible with Matt Cassel, but a win is a win. Speaking of which, Green Bay got a “W” that they needed last Thursday in Detroit. Green Bay has needed a “get right” game for a while, and this could certainly be it. With two challenging road games after this (at Oakland, at Arizona) before a showdown in Lambeau against the Vikings, Green Bay needs this game. I think they get it, something like 37-16. PICK: Packers
NEW ENGLAND (-3) at HOUSTON
The Patriots need to rebound from a terrible effort and fluky loss to the Eagles, and the poor Texans are the likely recipients of what could be a Patriots beat down. While the Texans do have some fire power on offense, this all depends on how Tom Brady is supported. Gronkowski will likely be out, but Danny Amendola and Scott Chandler will be there along with Brandon LaFell. Brady needs LaFell to finish his routes, and the Texans defense is pretty good, but the Patriots feel more desperate here to get a win and get back in the hunt for a bye. I see Bill Belichick pressuring Brian Hoyer while Brady has a great game on offense. Patriots big. PICK: Patriots
(Monday) MIAMI (+1.5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
Two 5-7 teams close out Week 14 in Miami, where the Dolphins host the Giants. New York just blew another game last week against the Jets, while Miami continues to struggle on offense. I don’t really like either side as neither squad can string together 60 good minutes, so I am taking the home team and the points. The Giants have a shot to win if they could run the ball, but their ground game is a mess right now. This one is likely to be an ugly close to a forgettable NFL week, so I am staying away from this one (and most of the constest this week). PICK: Dolphins
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- (Thursday) ARIZONA (-7.5) vs. MINNESOTA
- 6-POINT TEASER: (Thursday) ARIZONA (-1.5) vs. MINNESOTA (OVER 39.5)
- 6-POINT TEASER: (Thursday) ARIZONA (-1.5) vs. MINNESOTA (UNDER 52.5)
- SAN FRANCISCO (+1.5) at CLEVELAND
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (EVEN ODDS):
- CAROLINA (-1.5) vs. ATLANTA
- GREEN BAY (-1) vs. DALLAS
- (Thursday) ARIZONA (-1.5) vs. MINNESOTA
- DENVER (-1) vs. OAKLAND
(This represents six bets, take any of the two teams for six different combinations)
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (4.5-1 ODDS):
- CAROLINA (-1.5) vs. ATLANTA
- GREEN BAY (-1) vs. DALLAS
- (Thursday) ARIZONA (-1.5) vs. MINNESOTA
- DENVER (-1) vs. OAKLAND
- NEW YORK JETS (-1) vs. TENNESSEE
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (7-1 ODDS):
- CAROLINA (-1.5) vs. ATLANTA
- GREEN BAY (-1) vs. DALLAS
- (Thursday) ARIZONA (-1.5) vs. MINNESOTA
- DENVER (-1) vs. OAKLAND
- NEW YORK JETS (-1) vs. TENNESSEE
- SAN FRANCISCO (+7.5) at CLEVELAND
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (10-1 ODDS):
- CAROLINA (-1.5) vs. ATLANTA
- GREEN BAY (-1) vs. DALLAS
- (Thursday) ARIZONA (-1.5) vs. MINNESOTA
- DENVER (-1) vs. OAKLAND
- NEW YORK JETS (-1) vs. TENNESSEE
- SAN FRANCISCO (+7.5) at CLEVELAND
- (Monday) MIAMI (+7.5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- SEATTLE (-6) at BALTIMORE
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICKS OF THE WEEK: Cardinals, Seahawks, 49ers
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 9-7 (56.3%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 47.4-15 (76.0%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 5-1 (83.3%)
Season
- OVERALL: 100-89-3 (52.9%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 146.4-139-1 (51.3%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 44-39-2 (53.0%)
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.