Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
This is the week that we give thanks. In honor of that, I am thankful for many successful years in doing For the Win, my Picks of the Week, and bankroll management to allow me to endure probably my worst season ever. I am thankful for six more weeks to try and salvage this season. I am thankful for all of the readers of this column who know just how hard a task this is. And football. And family. And betting with your head. And turkey, pumpkin pie and cranberry sauce. Now let’s get to Week 12:
Bye week teams: None
Teams returning from a bye: Atlanta, Denver, New York Jets, San Diego
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) MINNESOTA (+2.5) at DETROIT
The Vikings have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and nothing travels better than a strong defense. Stefon Diggs is banged up and may not be ready to go, but that only means more targets for Kyle Rudolph. The Minnesota defense (and special teams) may outscore both offenses in this one. I would suggest eating during this game, as it may be the worst of all three Thanksgiving games. PICK: Vikings
(Thursday) DALLAS (-7) vs. WASHINGTON
Interesting how they managed to get two divisional matchups on Thanksgiving – I guess that is what happens when you get rid of the mandatory AFC-NFC matchup that used to be on Thanksgiving so that the AFC network could get the game. Dallas is rolling along in the NFC East, but Washington wants to put a ding on that record. The problem I see is that I have zero confidence that Washington can stop Ezekiel Elliott, and that may be all the Cowboys need. Kirk Cousins will throw a lot in this one and Rob Kelley will continue to get the bulk of the work, but I tend to side with a team that has been winning for over two months straight. Once again I am loving this one stat that I will continue to use the rest of the year – the point spread has only mattered in 22 of 161 NFL contests so far this season, which works out to be 14% of the time. Historically, based on what I have found, this is close the average of 15-18%, so keep that in mind. I like Dallas to win, so I am taking them and giving the touchdown. PICK: Cowboys
(Thursday) PITTSBURGH (-7.5 (and climbing)) at INDIANAPOLIS
Las Vegas is begging people to take the Colts. This game opened up as Pittsburgh favored by a field goal, and now it is starting to get closer to 10 points. This just goes to show us how much the sportsbooks weigh in a starting quarterback. Andrew Luck is going to miss this game on Thursday night due to a concussion, leaving Scott Tolzien to be the next man up. I am expecting a bad showing by him and the Colts, and Pittsburgh will carve up the Indianapolis defense. Ten points may not be enough. PICK: Steelers
TENNESSEE (-4) at CHICAGO
Here is another game with a quarterback already knocked out before kickoff. Jay Cutler is likely to be out, but some Bears fans may be on board with this already. Unfortunately the rest of the team is also banged up, so the Titans have a great opportunity to head into the Windy City and get a win. Tennessee is fighting hard for the AFC South title and a playoff spot, and they get their long-awaited bye week after this contest. I like the Titans to use DeMarco Murray a ton in this game and improve their record to 6-6 before they prepare for a tough closing schedule. PICK: Titans
BUFFALO (-7) vs. JACKSONVILLE
Something feels off in this one, as I have the Bills as a much bigger home favorite over Jacksonville than by only a touchdown, so this has to be related to injuries to LeSean McCoy and Robert Woods. This just in – Jacksonville does not scare anyone. In fact, teams WANT to face Blake Bortles this year. Buffalo’s defense is solid and is forcing turnovers, and that is not music to the ears of the Jaguars. McCoy is probably going to play, which means that the Jaguars are going to be in comeback / garbage time mode again in the fourth quarter. I like the Bills to win by double digits, even with Bortles throwing another meaningless touchdown in the waning moments on Sunday. PICK: Bills
BALTIMORE (-4) vs. CINCINNATI
How lucky can the Ravens get? After a tough loss at Dallas last week, they really need to get a win at home with the Steelers likely to be at 6-5 and in first place by Friday. That means Baltimore has to get a win every chance they can find, especially in the division. With the Bengals losing both A.J. Green and Giovani Bernard, the opportunity is clearly there for Joe Flacco and company to get the victory at home. I think Andy Dalton continues to struggle with only two Tylers (Eifert and Boyd) as his main options. PICK: Ravens
ATLANTA (-4) vs. ARIZONA
Once again, we see that the schedule maker is not a Cardinals fan. Another 1PM Eastern kickoff this week, AND they are facing the Falcons coming in off of a bye week. The Cardinals lost an ugly game to Minnesota last week, yielding a 100-yard Pick 6 and a 104-yard kickoff return that had the score 30-17 until the final moments. The Falcons are not good on defense, but Carson Palmer has not looked very good all year. Aside from David Johnson –who should have a monster game – Arizona has struggled this year to put up points and move the ball through the air. I like Atlanta to get a big home win after two weeks to prepare. PICK: Falcons
NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) at CLEVELAND
Seven, eight, nine or ten points – I don’t think it matters. The Giants have been playing good football lately, while the Browns are just playing. Take New York for the win and another loss for the Browns and just move on to the next game. PICK: Giants
NEW ORLEANS (-7) vs. LOS ANGELES
Apparently when the Rams moved to L.A., they forgot to pack their offense with them. They are averaging under 15 points a game this year, and Drew Brees is about to play another home game in the Superdome. That pretty much means 300+ yards passing and three touchdowns, and 24-15 covers the spread. Here is the “get right” game for the Saints, who know that they have to win pretty much every game the rest of the way to get into the playoffs. The good news is that the schedule should have them as favorites all the way up to the last game in Atlanta, so things could get interesting in the Big Easy. For now, just take Drew Brees and his big home games and do not sweat the point spread here. Saints 30, Rams 16. PICK: Saints
MIAMI (-7.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Ladies and gentlemen, start your engines Jay Ajayis. The 49ers are the worst run defense in the NFL, and Ajayi has been carrying this offense for about a month. Miami has somehow managed to win five games in a row, and they are poised to make it six with a home game against San Francisco this week. Long gone are the days of Joe Montana vs. Dan Marino in this matchup, as Ryan Tannehill vs. Colin Kaepernick hardly has the same ring to it. Kaepernick has been playing reasonably well of late (and certainly producing more than Tannehill), and that could be enough to cover the spread here. As much as I am tempted to take the points for a team I think will lose, I am sticking with my guns (and the 85% rule that point spreads don’t matter – just pick winning teams) with my choice of the Dolphins. I will say Miami 27, San Francisco 17. PICK: Dolphins
SAN DIEGO (-1) at HOUSTON
I watched the whole Monday Night Football game in Mexico City between Houston and Oakland, and I think that Brock Osweiler may be the Keyser Soze of quarterbacks. The greatest trick Osweiler has ever pulled was to convince the Texans he was a franchise quarterback. San Diego is coming off of their bye week and they are the forgotten team in the AFC West. San Diego is actually a rather solid team, with a 3-3 record in games not against AFC West teams. Philip Rivers is a franchise quarterback, and he will be giving lessons to Houston fans on Sunday as to what one really does look like. PICK: Chargers
SEATTLE (-5) at TAMPA BAY
Russell Wilson is rolling again, and Thomas Rawls is back. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers got a big win on the road in Kansas City last week, but Seattle is a better offense and defense when they are firing on all cylinders. Kansas City has been banged up and a Seattle team on the road (at 4PM, not 1PM) is a better choice than the Chiefs right now at home. PICK: Seahawks
NEW ENGLAND (-8) at NEW YORK JETS
Eight points is a big number, but Ryan Fitzpatrick can almost even that out himself after his first Pick 6. The Patriots could have Rob Gronkowski back, but the bigger return to action has been Dion Lewis, who complements James White and LeGarrette Blount in a triumvirate backfield that is hard to slow down. The Jets are pretty good against the run, but both White and Lewis can do major damage as receivers out of the backfield. Plus, all things considered, Fitzpatrick is still the quarterback for the Jets. PICK: Patriots
OAKLAND (-3.5) vs. CAROLINA
When do we finally stop thinking that the Panthers are good, and take them for the team that they are? Last year was last year. Josh Norman is gone, and now Luke Kuechly is hurt. The Raiders are a strong team that heads home after winning in Mexico City over Houston in a contest where Oakland was designated as the home side. Now Oakland gets two home games (Carolina, Buffalo) before three AFC West contests in December (around a home game against the Colts). Let’s just say that they need every win that they can get. Cam Newton is good, but Derek Carr is vastly underrated, and he has far better wide receivers. Oakland by a touchdown in an entertaining shootout, 34-27. PICK: Raiders
KANSAS CITY (+3.5) at DENVER
This might be the hardest game to pick of all 16 contests this week. Denver is coming off of a bye week and has a strong defense, or so it would seem. The Chiefs had been winning right up until a surprising loss to Tampa Bay last week, and Jeremy Maclin is still out. So how do you decide? Look for the biggest mismatches, and I see two. First, Kansas City has been very good against quarterbacks this year, and Trevor Siemian is mediocre at best. Second, Denver’s allegedly strong defense has given up nearly five yards per carry and a ton of fantasy points over their past three games That tells me that Andy Reid is going to give Spencer Ware a ton of chances this game to carry the offense, and I think he (along with Cairo Santos) put up all the Chiefs need to get a road win in a close game. Kansas City 20, Denver 16. PICK: Chiefs
(Monday) PHILADELPHIA (-3.5) vs. GREEN BAY
This is not a popular statement, but the Green Bay Packers are overrated. Washington just torched them for 42 points on Sunday Night Football, and now Green Bay takes a trip to the City of Brotherly Love to close out Week 12. The Eagles are a Jekyll and Hyde team, posting a perfect 4-0 record at Lincoln Financial Field while struggling with a 1-5 record on the road. That 4-0 mark did not come against easy opponents either, as the Eagles bested both the Steelers and the Falcons by a wide margin and also defeated Minnesota. Carson Wentz is still learning the league and no one will confuse him for Aaron Rodgers, but right now the Eagles have a better overall team and they love their home cooking. Take the cheesesteaks over the cheese heads this week, 27-20. PICK: Eagles
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- BALTIMORE (-4) vs. CINCINNATI
- (Monday) PHILADELPHIA (-3.5) vs. GREEN BAY
- KANSAS CITY “FOR THE WIN”(+155) at DENVER
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+610 ODDS):
- BUFFALO (-1) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- NEW YORK GIANTS (-1) at CLEVELAND
- PITTSBURGH (-1.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
- MIAMI (-1.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- NEW ENGLAND (-2) at NEW YORK JETS
- NEW ORLEANS (-1) vs. LOS ANGELES
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+890 ODDS):
- BUFFALO (-1) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- NEW YORK GIANTS (-1) at CLEVELAND
- PITTSBURGH (-1.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
- MIAMI (-1.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- NEW ENGLAND (-2) at NEW YORK JETS
- NEW ORLEANS (-1) vs. LOS ANGELES
- TENNESSEE (+2) at CHICAGO
- 8-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+1275 ODDS):
- BUFFALO (-1) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- NEW YORK GIANTS (-1) at CLEVELAND
- PITTSBURGH (-1.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
- MIAMI (-1.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- NEW ENGLAND (-2) at NEW YORK JETS
- NEW ORLEANS (-1) vs. LOS ANGELES
- TENNESSEE (+2) at CHICAGO
- SEATTLE (+1) at TAMPA BAY
- 9-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+1825 ODDS):
- BUFFALO (-1) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- NEW YORK GIANTS (-1) at CLEVELAND
- PITTSBURGH (-1.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
- MIAMI (-1.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- NEW ENGLAND (-2) at NEW YORK JETS
- NEW ORLEANS (-1) vs. LOS ANGELES
- TENNESSEE (+2) at CHICAGO
- SEATTLE (+1) at TAMPA BAY
- (Thursday) DALLAS (-1) vs. WASHINGTON
- 10-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+2600 ODDS):
- BUFFALO (-1) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- NEW YORK GIANTS (-1) at CLEVELAND
- PITTSBURGH (-1.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
- MIAMI (-1.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- NEW ENGLAND (-2) at NEW YORK JETS
- NEW ORLEANS (-1) vs. LOS ANGELES
- TENNESSEE (+2) at CHICAGO
- SEATTLE (+1) at TAMPA BAY
- (Thursday) DALLAS (-1) vs. WASHINGTON
- (Thursday) MINNESOTA (+8.5) at DETROIT
- 11-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+3700 ODDS):
- BUFFALO (-1) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- NEW YORK GIANTS (-1) at CLEVELAND
- PITTSBURGH (-1.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
- MIAMI (-1.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- NEW ENGLAND (-2) at NEW YORK JETS
- NEW ORLEANS (-1) vs. LOS ANGELES
- TENNESSEE (+2) at CHICAGO
- SEATTLE (+1) at TAMPA BAY
- (Thursday) DALLAS (-1) vs. WASHINGTON
- (Thursday) MINNESOTA (+8.5) at DETROIT
- BALTIMORE (+2) vs. CINCINNATI
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- (Thursday) MINNESOTA (+2.5) at DETROIT
- TENNESSEE (-4) at CHICAGO
- NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) at CLEVELAND
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+265 ODDS):
- BUFFALO (-1) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- NEW YORK GIANTS (-1) at CLEVELAND
- PITTSBURGH (-1.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
- MIAMI (-1.5) vs. SAN FRANCISC
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+410 ODDS):
- BUFFALO (-1) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- NEW YORK GIANTS (-1) at CLEVELAND
- PITTSBURGH (-1.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
- MIAMI (-1.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- NEW ENGLAND (-2) at NEW YORK JETS
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- BUFFALO (-7) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+165 ODDS):
- BUFFALO (-1) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- NEW YORK GIANTS (-1) at CLEVELAND
- PITTSBURGH (-1.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+165 ODDS):
- BUFFALO (-1) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- NEW YORK GIANTS (-1) at CLEVELAND
- MIAMI (-1.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+165 ODDS):
- BUFFALO (-1) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- PITTSBURGH (-1.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
- MIAMI (-1.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+165 ODDS):
- NEW YORK GIANTS (-1) at CLEVELAND
- PITTSBURGH (-1.5) at INDIANAPOLIS
- MIAMI (-1.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Minnesota, Dallas, Tennessee, Buffalo, Baltimore, New York Giants, New Orleans, Miami, Seattle, New England, Philadelphia
RESULTS
Last Week
OVERALL: 8-5-1 (61.5%)
BEST BETS (STARS): 9.25-17 (26.3%)
PICK OF WEEK: 4-4 (50%)
Season
OVERALL: 77-82-2 (48.4%)
BEST BETS (STARS): 80.4-144 (35.8%)
PICK OF WEEK: 43-40 (51.8%)
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.