Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
I hope that you have been sticking with my Picks of the Week, because that’s the best thing I’ve done in this column this season. After so many successful seasons, this has been a rough one. Just like with Daily Fantasy Sports, every week is a new week, so we wipe the slate clean once again for Week 11 and try to put forth a winning effort. So here we go:
Bye week teams: Atlanta, Denver, New York Jets, San Diego
Teams returning from a bye: Buffalo, Detroit, Indianapolis, Washington
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) NEW ORLEANS (+3.5) at CAROLINA
Drew Brees always plays well against the Panthers, and Carolina has not looked very impressive. New Orleans’ defense has been better of late, which should be enough to keep the Saints in the game. I expect a close contest, so I certainly am taking the points. PICK: Saints
BUFFALO (+3) at CINCINNATI
The Bills are coming off of their bye, while the Bengals are heading home after a tough road loss to the Giants on Monday Night Football. Given that the Bengals let the Giants look like they actually have a ground game, I am all over a fully rested LeSean McCoy and a field goal head start. PICK: Bills
PITTSBURGH (-8) at CLEVELAND
One of the things I have started to note is that the point spread does not often come into play (only 15 games this year were wins but no cover, and four ties in 146 contests – that’s 127-15-4, or not mattering 13% of the time). That is important to note as I see no way that the Steelers lose a game to the Browns here after a tough home loss. Pittsburgh needs this win in the division, and the Browns are still the Browns. PICK: Steelers
DALLAS (-7) vs. BALTIMORE
The Ravens were stuck in neutral for the first half against Cleveland at home last Thursday, while Dallas continues to get victories thanks to both Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. Joe Flacco performed well against the Browns, but Cleveland is not exactly the gold standard here. The Ravens have been rather mediocre this year, but they do own a few solid wins (Buffalo, Oakland, Pittsburgh) but Dallas could be their toughest match so far. Baltimore has been reasonably strong against the run, but they are near the bottom against wide receivers when it comes to touchdowns against (14, tied for third worst). That looks like a big game ahead for Dez Bryant and Dak Prescott, but a balanced and high octane Cowboys attack could expose this defense and all the issues the Ravens have tried so hard this year to hide. PICK: Cowboys
JACKSONVILLE (+7) at DETROIT
There are so many ways to go with this pick. Detroit is coming off of a bye, but they have the worst QB rating against (112.4), which means Blake Bortles should have a field day. The Lions do not defend tight ends well, but is Julius Thomas a real threat? Is Bortles good enough, and are his targets strong enough outside of Allen Robinson? Both teams are close in rush defense, but who has a running game? While I like Matthew Stafford far more than Bortles (especially after two weeks of prep), but is that enough? I like Jacksonville +7, but if it was less, I’d lean Detroit. Bottom line? Stay away. PICK: Jaguars
TENNESSEE (+3) at INDIANAPOLIS
Another divisional game here for both teams, but the Titans are really hot on offense while even a bye week will not repair the holes in the Indianapolis defense. Andrew Luck may be getting his receivers healthy and back to action, but if the Titans can hold off Aaron Rodgers, I like the chances here for Marcus Mariota getting a field goal as a head start. I may even take the Titans for the win. PICK: Titans
KANSAS CITY (-7.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
Kansas City rallied last week on the road at Carolina, and now they head to Tampa Bay for what should be a far easier matchup. Tampa Bay benefitted from another infamous Jay Cutler meltdown last week, but Alex Smith will manage this game just fine and the defense will be putting a ton of pressure on Jameis Winston and Mike Evans. The Chiefs are on a roll, and the Buccaneers clearly got lucky last week. PICK: Chiefs
ARIZONA (+1) at MINNESOTA
This is not going to be pretty, and by that I do not mean that one team is going to stomp all over the other one. The Vikings have a sieve that serves as their offensive line, and they only viable target right now is Stefon Diggs with some Kyle Rudolph now and then. Meanwhile Arizona struggled against Colin Kaepernick last week, partly because Carson Palmer was off his game. I do not like this as a “get right” spot for him, but I do see this game as similar to the Monday contest back in Week 6 with the Jets. David Johnson will have to take over this game (again) for the Cardinals to succeed, and he will be the best player on the field for either team. That should be enough in what could be a 13-10 type struggle for both offenses. PICK: Cardinals
NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) vs. CHICAGO
Speaking of sieves, here we have the Bears hosting the Giants in Chicago this week. Jay Cutler was just “classic Jay Cutler” last week, as just when everyone was saying he would succeed – BAM! – He goes and becomes classic Cutler again with multiple turnovers and an epic failure of a performance against a weak Tampa Bay defense. Now the Giants get to apply pressure to him with Chicago losing offensive linemen every day it seems. Chicago’s defense has not been too bad, but Odell Beckham Jr will find the holes and provide enough offense for the Giants to get the victory. PICK: Giants
MIAMI (-1) vs. LOS ANGELES
Miami comes in to this contest on a four game winning streak, and now they get to face a team that is struggling so badly on offense that they have turned the helm over to their top draft pick, Jared Goff. You have to know that the Dolphins will be throwing some advanced defensive concepts and reads at the rookie, which should result in a few turnovers and short fields. Jay Ajayi may not have a ton of room to run against a slightly above average run defense, but it does not look like a lot of points are going to be needed for Miami to get a road win here. Taking a team riding a month-long winning streak and only asking them to win the game outright feels like an easy call here. PICK: Dolphins
SEATTLE (-6) vs. PHILADELPHIA
The Eagles have managed to hold up a winning record this year so far at 5-4 and just recorded another impressive win at home over Atlanta. Their defense and their ground game really carried them, as Philadelphia wanted to minimize the amount of possessions that Matt Ryan had on offense. In general that is a solid strategy, but there are some very good reasons to side with Seattle in this contest. First, the Eagles are just 1-4 on the road, and Seattle is a very difficult place to play, especially for a first year quarterback. The Seahawks just secured a big win on the road at New England and have all the confidence in the world here, and the Seahawks are once again near the league lead in points against. Russell Wilson looks fully healthy and Thomas Rawls is due back, both pluses for the Seahawks on offense. I like Seattle to win, so I will reluctantly give six points because of that earlier stat I mentioned about the point spread usually not factoring in for the result. PICK: Seahawks
NEW ENGLAND (-13) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Here is another lock team to win this week – but can the Patriots cover? New England will be angry after the loss at home to Seattle, but this is another contest out of conference so maybe they will not turn the heat up all the way…. No, this is Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. This could be 50-3 by the end of this one, and I wonder about the three. Look for New England to try and dominate every phase and every snap of this game, even without Jamie Collins to spy Colin Kaepernick. PICK: Patriots
GREEN BAY (+3) at WASHINGTON
I know that Aaron Rodgers has not looked right for a while, but he finally got something back last week that he was missing – a true running back that can line up behind him. James Starks was clearly not 100%, but he did find the end zone and put enough balance on the offense to make the Titans at least consider defending the run up until the game was so one-sided. Now, Washington is coming off a strong win over the Vikings, but Minnesota’s offensive line has been falling apart. The run game for Washington is led by Rob Kelley, who is more fullback than tailback. I expect this game to come down to Kirk Cousins vs. Aaron Rodgers, and it will be a fun one to watch. I still like the Packers to outscore Washington, but it will be a 31-27 type contest. Give me Rodgers and points any day. PICK: Packers
(Monday) OAKLAND (-5.5) vs. HOUSTON (in Mexico City, Mexico)
The Raiders are coming off of their bye week, and they head to Mexico along with the Texans in what is supposed to be a home game for the Raiders, but the Texans are actually closer to this neutral site. Given NFL team followings, the crowd is likely to side more with the Raiders, and that is probably a good idea considering that Oakland is favored and has a much more entertaining offense these days. Brock Osweiler just somehow won a game last week over Jacksonville with just 99 yards passing, which hardly seems possible at the pro level. Unless Osweiler has Will Fuller back, I do not see the Texans keeping pace with Derek Carr in this one. PICK: Raiders
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- KANSAS CITY (-7.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
- GREEN BAY (+3) at WASHINGTON
- (Thursday) NEW ORLEANS “FOR THE WIN” (+160) at CAROLINA
- BUFFALO “FOR THE WIN” (+125) at CINCINNATI
- JACKSONVILLE “FOR THE WIN” (+240) at DETROIT
- TENNESSEE “FOR THE WIN” (+140) at INDIANAPOLIS
- PHILADELPHIA “FOR THE WIN” (+255) at SEATTLE
- GREEN BAY “FOR THE WIN” (+125) at WASHINGTON
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+610 ODDS):
- DALLAS (-1) vs. BALTIMORE
- PITTSBURGH (-2) at CLEVELAND
- KANSAS CITY (-1.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
- NEW YORK GIANTS (-1) vs. CHICAGO
- BUFFALO (+9) at CINCINNATI
- TENNESSEE (+9) at INDIANAPOLIS
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+890 ODDS):
- DALLAS (-1) vs. BALTIMORE
- PITTSBURGH (-2) at CLEVELAND
- KANSAS CITY (-1.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
- NEW YORK GIANTS (-1) vs. CHICAGO
- BUFFALO (+9) at CINCINNATI
- TENNESSEE (+9) at INDIANAPOLIS
- (Monday) OAKLAND (+0.5) vs. HOUSTON (in Mexico City, Mexico)
- 8-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+1275 ODDS):
- DALLAS (-1) vs. BALTIMORE
- PITTSBURGH (-2) at CLEVELAND
- KANSAS CITY (-1.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
- NEW YORK GIANTS (-1) vs. CHICAGO
- BUFFALO (+9) at CINCINNATI
- TENNESSEE (+9) at INDIANAPOLIS
- (Monday) OAKLAND (+0.5) vs. HOUSTON (in Mexico City, Mexico)
- GREEN BAY (+9) at WASHINGTON
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- BUFFALO (+3) at CINCINNATI
- PITTSBURGH (-8) at CLEVELAND
- TENNESSEE (+3) at INDIANAPOLIS
- 6-POINT TEASER: PITTSBURGH (-2) at CLEVELAND (UNDER 54)
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+265 ODDS):
- DALLAS (-1) vs. BALTIMORE
- PITTSBURGH (-2) at CLEVELAND
- KANSAS CITY (-1.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
- NEW YORK GIANTS (-1) vs. CHICAGO
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+410 ODDS):
- DALLAS (-1) vs. BALTIMORE
- PITTSBURGH (-2) at CLEVELAND
- KANSAS CITY (-1.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
- NEW YORK GIANTS (-1) vs. CHICAGO
- BUFFALO (+9) at CINCINNATI
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+165 ODDS):
- DALLAS (-1) vs. BALTIMORE
- PITTSBURGH (-2) at CLEVELAND
- KANSAS CITY (-1.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Dallas, Tennessee, Kansas City, New York Giants, Green Bay, Oakland
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 6-8 (42.9%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 8.05-12 (40.1%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 5-4 (55.6%)
Season
- OVERALL: 69-77-1 (47.3%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 71.15-127 (35.9%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 39-36 (52.0%)
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.