Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
It was a strange week, as I went 8-5 with my picks but hitching my fate on Best Bets to several favorites that were upset made it a bad week in that category. What I take away from this is that my picking was solid, but my choice of weighting those picks was not. Can’t worry about that though – have to press on and see how it goes. I do like some contests this week, so let’s get started:
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) JACKSONVILLE (-2.5) vs. TENNESSEE
Another unattractive game for Thursday Night Football lies ahead this week with the Titans traveling ot Florida to square off with the Jaguars. Jacksonville knows that a win here could lead to a first place tie atop the AFC South this time next week, so they will be very motivated to step up for a win here and build off of their miraculous (and fortunate) win in Baltimore last week. The Titans were brought down to earth by Carolina last week, and the Jacksonville defense is pretty good against the run. That means Marcus Mariota will be relied upon for the Titans, and on a short week against Jacksonville on the road – well, let’s just say veteran quarterbacks struggle with just a few days between contests. I am taking Jacksonville here for a win at home. Most places have this game as -3 for the Jaguars, so feel very fortunate if you can get it for less. PICK: Jaguars
ATLANTA (-6) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Both the Falcons and the Colts are coming off of a bye week, but Indianapolis will still be without Andrew Luck for the next several weeks. Atlanta gets to host Indianapolis with Matt Hasselbeck under center and not much of a defense to offer for the Falcons’ balanced attack. For me, this one is pretty simple – take the better team with the better offense at home after two weeks off. The Falcons will stack the box against Frank Gore and force Matt Hasselbeck to try and win the game, and I think Matt Ryan gets right here as the Falcons get back on the winning track with a win by double digits. PICK: Falcons
ST. LOUIS (+2.5) at BALTIMORE
This probably seems like a crazy pick as I am taking Case Keenum to win on the road at Baltimore, but the Ravens keep finding new and creative ways to lose this year. I think that they are done, but let’s focus on the Rams for a minute. The defense is good, despite bad tackling against the Bears last week. Keenum cannot be worse than the way Nick Foles has been playing, but even more, I think Todd Gurley will get 200 total yards against the Ravens and Keenum will have a productive day against a weak Baltimore secondary. I like St. Louis to pull the upset and give Baltimore yet another loss. PICK: Rams
CAROLINA (-7) vs. WASHINGTON
Well, I hope Kirk Cousins keeps a copy of that game film from last week, because that was his peak for the season. Carolina is a huge reality check here as the Panthers will win at home to move to 10-0 as Washington may become the first team to score 40+ points in one week and then get shut out (note – haven’t checked the history here, but I would be this is true). Carolina’s defense is stifling and the Washington defense can give up a lot of points. I like Cam Newton, Greg Olsen and James Stewart to have a solid game on the way to a 10-0 record. PICK: Panthers
DENVER (+1) at CHICAGO
Once upon a time, NFL teams could win games with competent quarterbacks, a strong supporting cast and a great defense. Well, that is the recipe that the Broncos are going to have to use to get to the postseason and then hope that either Peyton Manning finds the Fountain of Youth in January or they get the right breaks in the playoffs. That is weeks away now, so Denver must win the games that they can win on their schedule, and this is one of them. I like how Jay Cutler played last week, but his former team is going to gear up against him and apply a ton of pressure. I like the Broncos to score on defense this week and salt this game away early. PICK: Broncos
OAKLAND (-1.5) at DETROIT
Forget everything you think you know about the Raiders, as this team is different this year. Sure, they lost at home last week to the Vikings, but that Minnesota team is way better than most realize, and the game in Oakland was a lot closer than the 30-14 final score as Adrian Peterson broke a late run for 80 yards and a touchdown. Oakland is a solid passing offense and strong on defense against the run, so this game will come down to the Raiders stopping Calvin Johnson. I think that they can and they must if they really believe that they are capable of getting to the playoffs this year. This game is tough to call, but I do not trust Detroit at all even after winning a game that they should not have won in Lambeau last week. Oakland wins by about a field goal, something like 24-20 – which highlights that I like their kicker and special teams much more as Detroit missed two extra points last week. PICK: Raiders
NEW YORK JETS (-1.5) at HOUSTON
Let’s not dance around this one – this is an impossible call with unknowns at both quarterbacks here. The Jets hope Ryan Fitzpatrick can start, and who knows who the starting quarterback for the Texans will be. As I write this on Wednesday, all signs point to Fitzpatrick starting and the Texans having to go with T.J. Yates. That should end the debate right there. Give me Chris Ivory and the normal starting Jets quarterback against a banged up Houston team that lacks any running game. PICK: Jets
DALLAS (EVEN) at MIAMI
Another game, another quarterback change to discuss, but in the case of the Cowboys, they have been waiting for Tony Romo to get back under center. Romo should be back as the starter this week, but Dallas at 2-7 has a long road ahead to get back into the playoff race. Some could argue that their playoffs start in Week 11, as anything less than eight wins is probably not going to cut it to win the NFC East. Miami gets to go home having survived against the Eagles in Philadelphia in a game that either team could have won. Ryan Tannehill has to step up here and Lamar Miller has to keep producing, and I think both will, but there is one thing I found in researching this game and that is Miami is 31st against the run, while Dallas has one of the best offensive lines in the league. If the Cowboys are smart, they will ease Romo into playing again and let Darren McFadden run the ball 20+ times against Miami and try and win the game running the ball. I think Dallas gets a win here based on their running game. PICK: Cowboys
PHILADELPHIA (-5.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
Normally I would shy away from taking the Eagles and laying so many points here, but I actually like them to win this game by at least a touchdown. Mark Sanchez will do much better as the starter all week in practice instead of coming off of the bench, and he has run this offense well before. Tampa Bay may have won last week, but you are asking a lot to win with only 10 points on the board. Chip Kelly will try and get that offense humming at home and run the ball quite a bit to take the pressure off of Sanchez, but I think that the Eagles will have just enough to get a win by about a touchdown, something like 27-20. PICK: Eagles
KANSAS CITY (-3) at SAN DIEGO
San Diego had a week off to rest and heal, something that the Chargers desperately needed with so many injuries on both sides of the ball. Kansas City just got a big win in Denver last week and they get another AFC West road game here at San Diego. The Chargers are very bad against the run, and Charcandrick West had a great game last week against a much tougher Denver defense. Philip Rivers will do all he can to keep this one close, but I like the Chiefs here on the road. PICK: Chiefs
MINNESOTA (EVEN) vs. GREEN BAY
Can Green Bay possibly lose four games in a row? Yes, they can. Do not look now, but Minnesota is 7-2 and in first place in the NFC North. The Vikings know that a win here, at home against the Packers, will move them two games ahead of Green Bay plus the first tiebreaker with a head-to-head win. Even a loss in Week 17 would not matter if they build enough of a lead in the standings, and it all starts Sunday. Green Bay’s run defense against the run has improved lately, but still is only having an average year – and they have not faced a back like Adrian Peterson. Both Todd Gurley and Matt Forte had big games against Green Bay this year and I expect Peterson to have a great game and carry Minnesota to the victory. PICK: Vikings
SEATTLE (-12.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The Seahawks were embarrassed last week by Arizona at home. Now they get San Francisco coming off of their bye week for a visit to the Great Northwest. Seattle should be able to have their way with arguably the worst team in the league. Another shutout is possible here, and I would not put it past the Seahawks as a team goal this week. PICK: Seahawks
CINCINNATI (+5) at ARIZONA
NBC got this one right here as they get the 8-1 Bengals visiting the 7-2 Cardinals for Sunday Night Football for their first flexed in game of the year. This is arguably the best contest of the week, and expect several “possible Super Bowl 50 preview” comments during that broadcast. Arizona had a great game in Seattle to stake their claim atop the NFC West, but the Bengals stumbled mightily at home against Houston with only scoring two field goals. Andy Dalton and Carson Palmer are going to steal the show here and I like Dalton slightly more because the Arizona wide receivers are banged up. I think this game is a close call overall, so give me an 8-1 team with some motivation after a loss plus getting several points. I like this game to be a 34-31 type slugfest between both quarterbacks and opportunistic run games and defenses and it will be Must See TV. Either team can win, so that screams “Take the points” – which I am. PICK: Bengals
(Monday) NEW ENGLAND (-7) vs. BUFFALO
New England survived yet another trip to the Meadowlands last week with a one-point, last second win against the Giants in Week 10. Now they get another New York team on Monday as the Bills travel up to Foxboro. Last week was enough of a wakeup call for the Patriots to know that they have to kick things up another gear for the rest of the regular season, starting with this game against a divisional foe. The Bills can play defense and while New England will not have Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola can take up some slack here. I think New England gets the job done easily in a game I thought would be more of a 10-11 point spread, so I am happy to only have to give up a touchdown when I take New England. PICK: Patriots
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- ST. LOUIS (+2.5) at BALTIMORE
- CAROLINA (-7) vs. WASHINGTON
- PHILADELPHIA (-5.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
- KANSAS CITY (-3) at SAN DIEGO
- 6-POINT TEASER: SEATTLE (-6.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO (UNDER 47)
- CINCINNATI “FOR THE WIN” (+210) at ARIZONA
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (9-5 ODDS):
- CAROLINA (-1) vs. WASHINGTON
- (Monday) NEW ENGLAND (-1) vs. BUFFALO
- ATLANTA (EVEN) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
- CAROLINA (-1) vs. WASHINGTON
- (Monday) NEW ENGLAND (-1) vs. BUFFALO
- ATLANTA (EVEN) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- SEATTLE (-6.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (7-1 ODDS):
- CAROLINA (-1) vs. WASHINGTON
- (Monday) NEW ENGLAND (-1) vs. BUFFALO
- ATLANTA (EVEN) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- SEATTLE (-6.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- NEW YORK JETS (-1.5) at HOUSTON
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (11-1 ODDS):
- CAROLINA (-1) vs. WASHINGTON
- (Monday) NEW ENGLAND (-1) vs. BUFFALO
- ATLANTA (EVEN) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- SEATTLE (-6.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- NEW YORK JETS (-1.5) at HOUSTON
- KANSAS CITY (+3) at SAN DIEGO
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- NEW YORK JETS (-1.5) at HOUSTON
- (Monday) NEW ENGLAND (-7) vs. BUFFALO
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICKS OF THE WEEK: Panthers, Jets, Chiefs, Patriots
Results
Last Week
- OVERALL: 4-10 (28.6%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 9.9-9 (52.4%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 3-4 (42.9%)
Season
- OVERALL: 75-69-2 (52.1%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 81.45-104-1 (43.9%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 32-35-1 (47.8%)
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.