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Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season, I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Respectability. After a rough start to the season, that was the goal – a respectable record for the year. I believe I have finally gotten to that point, and my record is 50% or better across the board (in fact, 50% is my WORST number, so I’ll take that). Week 8 was not so great as there were some close calls and once again the sequence of my teasers bit me (thanks Chargers-Patriots for not scoring enough). The weather was somewhat of a factor, and that is tough to gauge on a Wednesday when I usually write this article, but enough excuses. I will take my 50-60% records and move on. One more week of a lot of byes here in Week 9, so let’s dig in. Here we go:
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
Teams on a Bye Week – Chicago, Cleveland, Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota, New England, Pittsburgh
Teams coming off of a Bye Week – Arizona, Green Bay, Jacksonville, Los Angeles Rams, New York Giants, Tennessee
(Thursday) BUFFALO (-3) at NEW YORK JETS
What a week with all those trades! Kelvin Benjamin will slot right into the starting lineup for the Bills as their “X” receiver, and not only is he with a new team but he has about 72 hours to get ready for a game. Now, I bet that Tyrod Taylor will work out a system with him to assign routes to run since there is no way Benjamin can absorb the playbook that fast, but it will be interesting to watch. Digging into this matchup I think the telling numbers come from the run defenses from both sides, as the Bills are near the top of the league (80.1 yards per game against) while the Jets are near the bottom (128.2). That strongly hints to me that Buffalo will run the ball a lot with LeSean McCoy (which also takes pressure off of Benjamin) and look to stuff Matt Forte and Bilal Powell. Asking Josh McCown to win you the game can be a tall order, and the Bills at 5-2 have their sights set on the postseason. Give me the better team, even on the road giving up points on a short week. PICK: Bills
ATLANTA (+1) at CAROLINA
This game is a tough read. Both teams have been up and down this year, and mostly down of late. Cam Newton should have been better against Tampa Bay last week, but we can give some of that to the wind. The same can be said for Matt Ryan and the rain in New Jersey against the Jets last week. Carolina also just traded away their best receiver, so this is a tough one. Both defenses can be sneaky good here, and I expect Julio Jones (I know, I know) to bounce back some this week. I am reluctantly taking Atlanta with the Panthers now down to Devin Funchess as their top receiver, but overall this game is not one I would like to put much value on as it could go either way. PICK: Falcons
HOUSTON (-12.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The Texans nearly beat Seattle on the road last week and the Colts are one of the worst teams in the league. Indianapolis may have two wins, but they are over Cleveland and San Francisco. This really isn’t a hot take, but Houston is going to win this game – the only question is by how much. K.I.S.S. and go with the team that just put up 38 points on the road, which is more than Indianapolis has scored in any contest this year. That number sounds about right as I can see a 38-24 victory for Houston. PICK: Texans
JACKSONVILLE (-4) vs. CINCINNATI
This almost isn’t fair. The Bengals barely escaped with a victory at home over the woeful Colts and now they have to travel to Jacksonville, who is coming off of their bye week. The Jaguars’ defense is one of the best in the league and they almost cannot be thrown against (under 162 yards a game), which means that the trio of Joe Mixon, Giovani Bernard, and Jeremy Hill will have to carry the Bengals to a win if Cincinnati is to be successful this week. While I do not love hitching my pick to Blake Bortles, but Leonard Fournette should be enough to get the job done. This will not be the most entertaining game to watch, but I think the Jaguars win a low scoring contest by at least a touchdown, say 20-13. PICK: Jaguars
NEW ORLEANS (-7) vs. TAMPA BAY
Here is the thing for New Orleans this week – Tampa Bay is one of the worst passing defenses in the league. Drew Brees should feast here, and he has not had his fill of late. The Saints may have won their last three games, but none of those scripts had Brees having to throw a lot in those efforts. First, the Saints took care of Detroit with their defense scoring touchdowns, then they won in Green Bay in the game where Aaron Rodgers was hurt, and then last week they won a close game against Chicago in a defensive struggle. In other words, Brees is hungry and the Buccaneers should allow him to feast. Jameis Winston will try and match pace with Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson, but I think the Saints defense is way underrated but that doesn’t mean Brees won’t get his. This feels like a 41-20 type game where Brees shows why he is such a good quarterback, even in the waning years of his career. PICK: Saints
LOS ANGELES RAMS (-3.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS
Interesting matchup for the Rams and Giants here as both teams are coming off of a bye week. The Rams fall in that “West Coast teams playing at 1PM Eastern” potential trap, but I see this team as a younger squad that will not be too phased by the travel schedule. The Giants have a pretty solid defense usually, but those who are not up on recent news may miss that Janoris Jenkins is suspended for the week – and that is a big plus for the Rams, who are second in the NFL in points per game on offense. Jared Goff and Todd Gurley should put up plenty of points against a Giants team missing a key defensive component. PICK: Rams
PHILADELPHIA (-7.5) vs. DENVER
Do I really need to go into much detail here? Denver has not looked good at all and Trevor Siemian seems to be hanging onto his job about a quarter at a time right now, while the Eagles keep crushing opponents and just added Jay Ajayi. The Broncos just played on Monday at home (and lost) and now head to Philadelphia for an early game to face a team that has only lost to the Chiefs this season (in Kansas City). Denver can be picked apart by a good quarterback – tight end combo and that is what we have here with Carson Wentz and Zach Ertz. Throw in the strong defense by the Eagles and this game could be a blowout. PICK: Eagles
Update – Now Siemian is out, Brock Osweiler is in, and I’m all in on the Eagles.
TENNESSEE (-5.5) vs. BALTIMORE
Baltimore may be coming off of a huge win over Miami (40-0 on Thursday) but Tennessee is coming off of their bye week, so even though the Ravens have had more than a week of rest, the Titans will have had more time to prepare than Baltimore and they are hosting the Ravens on Sunday. Throw in that Flacco was rocked for a major concussion last Thursday and he may be a little gun shy after his first hit from the Titans’ defense. Baltimore has the second-best quarterback rating against (Jacksonville is #1) but the Ravens are one of the weaker run defenses overall (4.2 YPC against, over 130 yards a game). That all combines for me to believe that Tennessee will attack the Ravens with Derrick Henry and Demarco Murray, and I would not be surprised at all if they both combine for 100+ yards in a Sunday win by more than a touchdown. PICK: Titans
ARIZONA (-1.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
At first I was not sure where I was going to go on this game, but then I just stepped back for a moment and applied the K.I.S.S. principle. Arizona is coming off of their bye week and facing a winless 49ers team that just cut their starting quarterback and announced that the new one (Jimmy Garoppolo) that they just added via a trade will not start until Week 12. San Francisco is a mess, and the Cardinals should get an easy win here, even if they must rely on Drew Stanton as their quarterback. PICK: Cardinals
SEATTLE (-7) vs. WASHINGTON
Seattle is getting stronger with Duane Brown being added to the offensive line and Russell Wilson rounding into midseason form. This game could turn into (another) shootout as Kirk Cousins can keep pace even with Vernon Davis starting for Jordan Reed, as we all saw how the Texans racked up scores last week. Seattle is still a tough place to visit and I like how Jimmy Graham’s matchup looks, so give me the home team and lay the points. PICK: Seahawks
KANSAS CITY (+1) at DALLAS
This one should be entertaining. The Chiefs travel to Dallas for what projects to be a high scoring, close contest between two playoff-caliber franchises. Andy Reid is very familiar with Dallas from his days in Philadelphia, and Kansas City is coming off of another big win on the road (at Denver) on Monday. The Cowboys head home after a win in wet Washington, and they are looking at an offensive without Ezekiel Elliott for the first time all year. Can Dak Prescott and Dez Bryant do enough? Kansas City is giving up over 260 yards passing per game, but they do have 18 sacks and eight interceptions already this year. I see a Chiefs’ defense pinning their ears back and going after Dak on Sunday and getting the job done. PICK: Chiefs
OAKLAND (-3) at MIAMI
Miami was shut out by the Ravens last week, and that was with Jay Ajayi. I fail to see how the Dolphins are going to do anything to move the ball consistently, or be able to stop Oakland when Baltimore racked up 40 points last week even with Joe Flacco on the sidelines with a concussion. Easy call for me. PICK: Raiders
(Monday) GREEN BAY (+2.5) vs. DETROIT
This line looks off to me. Granted Green Bay no longer has Aaron Rodgers, but Brett Hundley is adequate enough to move the ball on a Detroit team that nearly set a record for most yards in a game without a touchdown as they only managed to get five field goals against Pittsburgh on Sunday Night Football. Green Bay’s secondary is not that good, but the Packers have a distinct home advantage and usually match up well with the Lions. Not the easiest call for sure, but anytime I can get the Packers as a home underdog in a nationally televised game then that is the direction I will usually go. PICK: Packers
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
- HOUSTON (-12.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- NEW ORLEANS (-7) vs. TAMPA BAY
- SEATTLE (-5.5) vs. WASHINGTON
- KANSAS CITY (+1) at DALLAS
- (Thursday) BUFFALO "FOR THE WIN" (+165) at NEW YORK JETS
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (6.1-1 ODDS):
- PHILADELPHIA (-1.5) vs. DENVER
- TENNESSEE (+0.5) vs. BALTIMORE
- SEATTLE (-1) vs. WASHINGTON
- JACKSONVILLE (+2) vs. CINCINNATI
- NEW ORLEANS (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
- HOUSTON (-6.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (8.9-1 ODDS):
- PHILADELPHIA (-1.5) vs. DENVER
- TENNESSEE (+0.5) vs. BALTIMORE
- SEATTLE (-1) vs. WASHINGTON
- JACKSONVILLE (+2) vs. CINCINNATI
- NEW ORLEANS (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
- HOUSTON (-6.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- KANSAS CITY (+7) at DALLAS
- 8-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (12.75-1 ODDS):
- PHILADELPHIA (-1.5) vs. DENVER
- TENNESSEE (+0.5) vs. BALTIMORE
- SEATTLE (-1) vs. WASHINGTON
- JACKSONVILLE (+2) vs. CINCINNATI
- NEW ORLEANS (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
- HOUSTON (-6.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- KANSAS CITY (+7) at DALLAS
- (Monday) GREEN BAY (+8.5) vs. DETROIT
- 9-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (18.25-1 ODDS):
- PHILADELPHIA (-1.5) vs. DENVER
- TENNESSEE (+0.5) vs. BALTIMORE
- SEATTLE (-1) vs. WASHINGTON
- JACKSONVILLE (+2) vs. CINCINNATI
- NEW ORLEANS (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
- HOUSTON (-6.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- KANSAS CITY (+7) at DALLAS
- (Monday) GREEN BAY (+8.5) vs. DETROIT
- KANSAS CITY at DALLAS (OVER 45.5)
- 10-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (26-1 ODDS):
- PHILADELPHIA (-1.5) vs. DENVER
- TENNESSEE (+0.5) vs. BALTIMORE
- SEATTLE (-1) vs. WASHINGTON
- JACKSONVILLE (+2) vs. CINCINNATI
- NEW ORLEANS (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
- HOUSTON (-6.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- KANSAS CITY (+7) at DALLAS
- (Monday) GREEN BAY (+8.5) vs. DETROIT
- KANSAS CITY at DALLAS (OVER 45.5)
- NEW ORLEANS vs. TAMPA BAY (OVER 44)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- JACKSONVILLE (-4) vs. CINCINNATI
- TENNESSEE (-5.5) vs. BALTIMORE
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (2.65-1 ODDS):
- PHILADELPHIA (-1.5) vs. DENVER
- TENNESSEE (+0.5) vs. BALTIMORE
- SEATTLE (-1) vs. WASHINGTON
- JACKSONVILLE (+2) vs. CINCINNATI
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (4.10-1 ODDS):
- PHILADELPHIA (-1.5) vs. DENVER
- TENNESSEE (+0.5) vs. BALTIMORE
- SEATTLE (-1) vs. WASHINGTON
- JACKSONVILLE (+2) vs. CINCINNATI
- NEW ORLEANS (-1) vs. TAMPA BAY
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 6-POINT TEASER: (Monday) KANSAS CITY (-1.5) vs. DENVER (UNDER 50)
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (1.65-1 ODDS):
- PHILADELPHIA (-1.5) vs. DENVER
- TENNESSEE (+0.5) vs. BALTIMORE
- SEATTLE (-1) vs. WASHINGTON
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Houston, Jacksonville, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Kansas City
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 9-3-1 (75%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 13-13 (50%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 3-2 (60%)
Season
- OVERALL: 61-54-4 (53.0%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 126.85-118-3 (51.8%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 34-26-2 (60%)
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com