Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Oh, how things turned from great to ugly in a single game. Had the Vikings just won over the Bears, all the teasers in last week’s For the Win would have hit, and over 36 stars would have gone into the win column – but alas, it was not meant to be as Chicago and Jay Cutler tripped me up. So a 42.15-2 week went to 6-8, another losing week – but I am not going to go away from that strategy. (Actually, had this been the real situation and I was in Las Vegas, you can better believe I would have had some action on the Bears “For the Win” to make sure I had a winning week). I’ll take the week as a relatively decent one and use that positive energy towards the Week 9 picks. Here we go:
Bye week teams: Arizona, Chicago, Cincinnati, Houston, Minnesota, New England, Washington
Teams returning from a bye: Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York Giants, Pittsburgh, San Francisco
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) ATLANTA (-3.5) vs. TAMPA BAY
The Falcons are most likely going to be playing this week without Tevin Coleman, but Atlanta is still healthier at running back than the Buccaneers, who will be without both Doug Martin and Jacquizz Rodgers. Atlanta has been an explosive offense this year but they also have demonstrated weakness on defense, and good offenses have been able to keep pace with the Falcons throughout the season. Unfortunately for the Buccaneers, their offense is lacking too many playmakers to exploit that Atlanta defense, so I expect the Falcons to win by at least a touchdown on the road. PICK: Falcons
PITTSBURGH (+2) at BALTIMORE
Two teams in the AFC North return to action in Maryland this week with a renewed rivalry between Pittsburgh and Baltimore. These teams have no love lost between them and typically the games are pretty close, but Ben Roethlisberger could be playing on Sunday and that definitely would tilt the scales towards the Steelers, as the Ravens’ secondary has been a weak spot on defense this season. Even if Landry Jones gets the start for Pittsburgh, I like the Steelers to get the road win as their offense has more playmakers than do the Ravens, who are still hoping that someone (maybe Kenneth Dixon) can step up and give them a decent option at running back. Until Baltimore proves otherwise, I will take Pittsburgh as the better overall team to get a tough divisional road victory this week. PICK: Steelers
DALLAS (-7) at CLEVELAND
Eventually, the Browns have to get a win, right? Right? Maybe, but it isn’t going to be this week. The Cowboys are 6-1 after a tough home win in overtime over the Eagles, and there is some chance of a letdown – but Cleveland is struggling against the run, which is the strength of the Cowboys thanks to Ezekiel Elliott. That should be enough to get the win here, and they should cover the big spread. I can live with a touchdown margin, but anything more starts to get tough as the Browns have been keeping games close. PICK: Cowboys
KANSAS CITY (-8.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
The 2-5 Jaguars visit the 5-2 Chiefs this week after the Jaguars were thoroughly embarrassed in Tennessee last Thursday. Blake Bortles put up good fantasy numbers thanks to garbage time, but that does not matter in picking these games. Kansas City is a very tough place to play, and even if the Chiefs have to turn to a committee of Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West this week, that will be enough against a lackluster Jaguars team that has no running game and is consistently misfiring on offense. Chiefs by double digits at home. PICK: Chiefs
MIAMI (-3.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS
Jay Ajayi and the rest of the Miami Dolphins return to action after a bye at home against their divisional rivals here in Week 9. This will be a big matchup of Ajayi against the top run defense in terms of yards per carry against as the Jets are allowing a league low of just 3.3 yards per carry (tied with Carolina and Green Bay). Is that stat for real, or just the manifestation of weak competition? No doubt we will find out as the Jets will try and force Ryan Tannehill to beat them, but the Miami defense will put pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick as well, and turnovers are likely to be a big factor. I still remember what David Johnson did to the Jets in Week 6, and Ajayi could do the same here. Miami has played solid defense of late as well, so I will take the hotter running back with an extra week of rest at home against a quarterback who tends to throw bad interceptions. PICK: Dolphins
MINNESOTA (-6) vs. DETROIT
The Vikings have to be angry after that terrible showing in Chicago on Monday Night Football (I know I am). Their new home in Minnesota has proven to be a good advantage so far, as the Vikings are 3-0 there and I do not expect the Lions to go into U.S. Bank Stadium and be the first road team to get a victory. The line of six points looks big after only scoring 10 against the Bears, but this has the makings of a “get right” game at home. Minnesota by at least a touchdown. PICK: Vikings
PHILADELPHIA (+2.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS
Heartbreak for the Eagles and their fans last Sunday night as Philadelphia lost to Dallas in overtime, 29-23. Now the Eagles have to face another NFC East foe on the road for the second week in a row – with both teams coming off of their byes. Tough scheduling, for sure. The good news is that Philadelphia is better on defense against the pass than the run, and the Giants have virtually no ground game. The X-factor of course is Odell Beckham, Jr. who can single-handedly beat a team on any given Sunday. This game should be a close one and decided by a late field goal, so give me the points here in a close call. PICK: Eagles
CAROLINA (-2.5) at LOS ANGELES
Carolina has to be desperate to keep their winning going, because even at 2-5 they are still far out of the NFC playoff race. They cannot afford to drop any more winnable games the rest of the way, and every game matters now. The Rams will be at home and fully rested after their bye week, but Cam Newton will be taking this team on his back and carrying them to respectability – and hopefully, contention – the rest of the season. This is one of those games that Carolina cannot afford to lose, especially within the conference. Los Angeles is pretty good at running the ball, but this is the strength of Carolina’s defense. The Rams may try and throw on the Panthers, but they lack solid weapons in this regard. The Panthers step up here and get a win to move to 3-5 over the Rams, who are still struggling to get an offense going. PICK: Panthers
NEW ORLEANS (-3) at SAN FRANCISCO
The debate this week regarding New Orleans will be who is going to be the starting running back, as Mark Ingram was demoted last week after a fumble and the team rode Tim Hightower the rest of the way. In reality, it will not matter against San Francisco, the team that is so far out in front (or should I say behind) as the worst run defense with almost 1,300 yards against (over 185 a game – second is Cleveland with 143) and 10 touchdowns against on the ground. I expect both Ingram and Hightower reach pay dirt this week and render the debate rather inconsequential this week. Drew Brees is not the same on the road as he is at home, but he won’t need to throw for 300 yards and three scores against the 49ers. Take the Saints to cruise to a victory in San Francisco this week by double digits, even with a bad defense. PICK: Saints
GREEN BAY (-7) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The Colts are terrible against the run, but the Packers don’t seem to have any viable running backs. The good news is that the Colts are also bad against the pass, so Aaron Rodgers can just throw 60+ times this week. Andrew Luck is likely to do the same, as the Packers are thin against the pass but one of the best against the run. This has all the makings of a shootout at Lambeau, and the weather looks supportive of it on long range forecasts (mid-50s, clear). The touchdown margin is a tough one, but I like how Rodgers has been playing of late while Andrew Luck is under constant pressure in the pocket. Packers 34, Colts 24. PICK: Packers
SAN DIEGO (-5) vs. TENNESSEE
Tennessee should be riding high after a Thursday Night Football home win over Jacksonville, but a trip to San Diego is up next for the Titans. Tennessee will look to run the ball with both DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry, and the matchup with the Chargers is actually quite interesting. San Diego has given up 11 touchdowns on the ground (30th in the NFL, New Orleans and Washington have given up 12) but they are only giving up 86 yards a game and just 3.8 yards per carry. The Titans will clearly want to test this run defense while Philip Rivers will look to throw against Tennessee as they are close to average against the pass but have only yielded three scores on the ground. I like the pressure that San Diego generates with their pass rush and their run defense and Rivers has the better passing game, so I am taking the home team to get a win by about a touchdown, 27-20. PICK: Chargers
DENVER (+1) at OAKLAND
This is going to be a great game, or at least it looks that way as we approach the weekend. Both teams are 6-2 and sit atop the AFC West, with Oakland hosting Denver for a meaningful game – which has not happened in quite a long time. The Raiders have a shot at getting a home win and leading the division by the end of Sunday, but Denver’s defense will have much to say about that outcome. Denver’s Devontae Booker (shoulder) is questionable, but the best way to attack the Raiders this season has been with the passing game. Can the Broncos rely on Trevor Siemian? If they could, that would be the top option, but lately head coach Mike Kubiak may be questioning his quarterback’s decision-making. Denver is going to have to try their best to exploit the passing game matchup and play balanced football, something the Raiders have been doing much better lately. This could be a shootout or a struggle, but it is a total toss-up here. The better offense is clearly Oakland, while the better defense is certainly Denver. I think the Broncos won the Super Bowl with defense and they will win this big game again with that top unit, but it will not come easy. PICK: Broncos
(Monday) SEATTLE (-6.5) vs. BUFFALO
Seattle is one of the top defenses in the league right now, and they need to rely on that unit until the offense starts clicking. A lackluster performance in New Orleans last week led to just 20 points as the passing game is just not working with Russell Wilson these days. Seattle should be able to stifle the Bills and run the ball with Christine Michael towards a low-scoring victory at home, but it probably will not be very pretty. Seattle 20, Buffalo 13. PICK: Seahawks
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- DALLAS (-7) at CLEVELAND
- CAROLINA (-2.5) at LOS ANGELES
- NEW ORLEANS (-3) at SAN FRANCISCO
- (Monday) SEATTLE (-6.5) vs. BUFFALO
- PHILADELPHIA “FOR THE WIN” (+125) at NEW YORK GIANTS
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+410 ODDS):
- (Monday) SEATTLE (-0.5) vs. BUFFALO
- DALLAS (-1) at CLEVELAND
- GREEN BAY (-1) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- KANSAS CITY (-2.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- SAN DIEGO (+1) vs. TENNESSEE
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+610 ODDS):
- (Monday) SEATTLE (-0.5) vs. BUFFALO
- DALLAS (-1) at CLEVELAND
- GREEN BAY (-1) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- KANSAS CITY (-2.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- SAN DIEGO (+1) vs. TENNESSEE
- MINNESOTA (EVEN) vs. DETROIT
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+890 ODDS):
- (Monday) SEATTLE (-0.5) vs. BUFFALO
- DALLAS (-1) at CLEVELAND
- GREEN BAY (-1) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- KANSAS CITY (-2.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- SAN DIEGO (+1) vs. TENNESSEE
- MINNESOTA (EVEN) vs. DETROIT
- NEW ORLEANS (+3) at SAN FRANCISCO
- 8-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+1275 ODDS):
- (Monday) SEATTLE (-0.5) vs. BUFFALO
- DALLAS (-1) at CLEVELAND
- GREEN BAY (-1) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- KANSAS CITY (-2.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- SAN DIEGO (+1) vs. TENNESSEE
- MINNESOTA (EVEN) vs. DETROIT
- NEW ORLEANS (+3) at SAN FRANCISCO
- PHILADELPHIA (+8.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS
- 9-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+1825 ODDS):
- (Monday) SEATTLE (-0.5) vs. BUFFALO
- DALLAS (-1) at CLEVELAND
- GREEN BAY (-1) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- KANSAS CITY (-2.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- SAN DIEGO (+1) vs. TENNESSEE
- MINNESOTA (EVEN) vs. DETROIT
- NEW ORLEANS (+3) at SAN FRANCISCO
- PHILADELPHIA (+8.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS
- CAROLINA (+3.5) at LOS ANGELES
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- SAN DIEGO (-5) vs. TENNESSEE
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+165 ODDS):
- (Monday) SEATTLE (-0.5) vs. BUFFALO
- DALLAS (-1) at CLEVELAND
- GREEN BAY (-1) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+265 ODDS):
- (Monday) SEATTLE (-0.5) vs. BUFFALO
- DALLAS (-1) at CLEVELAND
- GREEN BAY (-1) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
- KANSAS CITY (-2.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- KANSAS CITY (-8.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Dallas, Kansas City, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Carolina, New Orleans, Green Bay, San Diego, Seattle
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 6-7 (46.2%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 6-8 (42.9%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 4-3 (57.1%)
Season
- OVERALL: 57-62-1 (47.9%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 58.1-101 (36.5%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 30-27 (52.6%)
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.