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Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
This is getting old. Whenever you hit a bad spell, all you can do is shake it off and press on to get back on the winning side. Digging deep for Week 7, let’s buckle down and get some winning picks. Here we go:
Bye week teams: Carolina, Dallas
Teams returning from a bye: Minnesota, Tampa Bay
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) GREEN BAY (-7.5) vs. CHICAGO
First game out of the chute, and I am already not liking the line set by Las Vegas. The Bears should be an underdog here by more than a touchdown, but I have to think that there is a reasonable chance that Chicago can keep this close and within that point spread. Brian Hoyer has thrown for 300+ yards in four straight, and that is with some serious turnover at wide receiver. Green Bay is also banged up at running back, but Aaron Rodgers is probably looking at this one as another “get right game” for his offense. The Packers sure need it after a tough loss to Dallas on Sunday, but it will have to be the defense and the passing game that pulls off the win for Green Bay. The deciding factors for me to take the Packers are better special teams and the short week. Connor Barth is not very good at all, and the Bears have faced some softer defenses the past few weeks. Green Bay 27, Chicago 17. PICK: Packers
LOS ANGELES (+3) “at” the NEW YORK GIANTS (London, England)
Week 7 gives us our second of three London contests this year, so keep that in mind for your weekend schedule. Speaking of schedules, the schedule maker might be from St. Louis, because he surely hates the Rams. A near-cross country trip to Detroit is followed by an even longer trek to London this week. The Rams travel over 35,000 miles this season – the most of any team – and about a third of it happens these two weeks. Los Angeles was smart enough to not attempt to head home after the trip to Detroit, as the Rams headed straight across the pond after the close contest with the Lions Sunday. That means that the players will have several days to get rested, ready and acclimated to London time, which I believe is the first advantage they will have over the Giants. New York has not given up a 100-yard rusher yet this season, but they have yielded four touchdowns the past three weeks and the top backs they have faced over that span have all topped 80 yards. I see the Rams relying on Todd Gurley quite a bit in this one, and I think that they can outpace Odell Beckham and get after Eli Manning enough to get the victory, even on the “road”. PICK: Rams
KANSAS CITY (-6.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
Drew Brees is simply not himself when he goes out on the road, but what is the same is that porous defense. Kansas City is now running their offense through both Jamaal Charles and Spencer Ware, both of which can run the ball inside or outside and also catch short passes out of the backfield. That will be the game script against New Orleans, and should lead to plenty of points on Sunday. The Chiefs had plenty of pass rush with just four down lineman against Oakland, and they will pin their ears back and get after Brees this week. I expect the Chiefs to build on the win in Oakland from last week and get another win by at least a touchdown at home. PICK: Chiefs
TENNESSEE (-2.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Indianapolis blew a big game against Houston on Sunday Night Football, as their defense let them down yet again. Tennessee has been moving right along with their offense against Miami and Cleveland the past two weeks, taking advantage of weaker competition. I expect a similar plan and result this week with the Titans running the ball with DeMarco Murray and having Marcus Mariota moving the ball via his arm or legs against the Colts. Without a better way to step up the defense in Indianapolis or to better protect Andrew Luck, the Colts are going to struggle the rest of the season. PICK: Titans
MINNESOTA (-2.5) at PHILADELPHIA
The Vikings are coming off of their bye week, and some of that time off had to be used to get ready to visit Philadelphia. It is not clear if Sam Bradford will be looking forwards to this trip, as this is his first visit back to Lincoln Financial Field since he was dealt to the Vikings just before the season started. Both teams are strong on defense and they also have some issues of health on offense. With Stefon Diggs be ready to go? How will Jordan Matthews feel with his sore knee? Everyone will be focused on the two quarterbacks, Bradford and Carson Wentz, but the defenses and special teams play will likely decide a close contest. That screams “take the home team and the points” here, but the biggest issue for the Eagles right now has been the loss of Lane Johnson for a 10-game suspension. With the running backs not getting big holes to run through and Wentz under pressure, you have to side with the Minnesota defense in what should be a close, exciting contest. PICK: Vikings
CINCINNATI (-10) vs. CLEVELAND
Ten points are a lot to give, especially to a divisional rival, but these are the Cleveland Browns here. Cincinnati knows that they have to get a win against the Browns this week and then build on that to move to 4-4 next week before their bye to get back in the AFC race, but it all hinges on this game. Cleveland has not been able to stop much of anything on defense so far this year, so this game could be the one contest that gets the Bengals moving in the right direction again. I see Cincinnati beating up on the Browns as they fall to 0-7. PICK: Bengals
WASHINGTON (+1.5) at DETROIT
The Lions just let Case Keenum look like Aaron Rodgers last week, but Detroit was able to salvage a win thanks to a bad Rams secondary. Going back to the Detroit defense, Kirk Cousins could finally get going again with the perfect indoor environment to get the passing attack going again for Washington. Jordan Reed should be back and no team is worse against tight ends than Detroit. Need proof? Lance Kendricks scored a touchdown last week. That’s right – Lance Kendricks, who isn’t even on his own fantasy team. Washington goes to Michigan and gets the “W” here. PICK: Washington
JACKSONVILLE (-1) vs. OAKLAND
Oakland was torn apart by Kansas City with Jamaal Charles and Spencer Ware – but can Jacksonville do the same? Here we have Oakland heading east again for an early kickoff, so that is strike one. Jacksonville did what Jacksonville does last week against the Bears – coming back late in the game thanks to the strength of Blake Bortles’ arm and his underrated receivers. The Raiders are struggling against the pass (and the run) and with the early kickoff and a lack of a ground game, give me the home team to take the win. PICK: Jaguars
BUFFALO (-2.5) at MIAMI
Here comes the letdown game for the Dolphins after a big, big win at home against Pittsburgh. The Bills are also in a spot that could be an emotional low as well after LeSean McCoy ran all over the 49ers at home last week. The fact that this is a divisional game should be uplifting to both squads. Buffalo knows that they have to win this one because not only is it a divisional game, but the Patriots and Seahawks are up next on the schedule before their bye. Nice win last week Miami, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves – the Bills are a much better team right now. PICK: Bills
BALTIMORE (+1) at the NEW YORK JETS
Here is another strange scheduling quirk, as the Ravens are visiting MetLife Stadium in consecutive weeks. Baltimore just suffered a heartbreaking loss to the Giants, but now they face the AFC home team with the Jets hosting Baltimore this week. This game means more for Baltimore in the AFC, and the Jets are stumbling their way through their schedule as they also just took another bad loss in Arizona on Monday Night Football. Ryan Fitzpatrick was replaced late in that game, but he is still supposed to start – which might be good news for the Ravens. The Jets allegedly had a good run defense, but three touchdowns later, David Johnson just demonstrated how Baltimore might attack New York on the ground. The Ravens have been playing everyone close while the Jets are struggling week after week. I will definitely take the Ravens and an extra point here on the road, but in a very familiar setting for Baltimore. PICK: Ravens
TAMPA BAY (-1.5) at SAN FRANCISCO
The Buccaneers had two weeks to rest up and get ready to take on the 49ers this week, while San Francisco had a different starting quarterback the last time Tampa Bay was in action. The 49ers cannot stop the run, as LeSean McCoy demonstrated on Sunday, so look for Doug Martin to get back on track and post his best game of the year. Two touchdowns for Martin should be more than enough for the Buccaneers to get a road win in San Francisco. PICK: Buccaneers
SAN DIEGO (+6.5) at ATLANTA
This is supposed to be the highest scoring game in Week 7 with an Over/Under of 53-54 points. That’s a lot, but it is that high for several good reasons. First, the game is in a dome, and the contest is a 4:05 PM kickoff, so everyone should be at peak performance and not drowsy for this matchup. The Falcons have only played one game this season that did not top 50 points, and that was a road win in Denver. The Chargers are a similar team, as all but one contest topped 48 for San Diego so far, and that was a 21-13 win over Denver last Thursday, and we all know that Thursday games are typically lower scoring. I see this game as a total shootout, which means that we could be looking at another 37-34 type contest this week. In that case, take the points. PICK: Chargers
NEW ENGLAND (-7) at PITTSBURGH
Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski against Landry Jones and Jesse James. What else do I really need to say? PICK: Patriots
ARIZONA (-1) vs. SEATTLE
This is a great matchup of two offenses who just want to run the ball down the other team’s throats while they play great defense and kick some field goals now and then. If both quarterbacks were at 100%, this would be an easy call for the Seahawks, but Russell Wilson is banged up and Carson Palmer looks to be about as healthy as he has been all season. Looking back to Seattle’s loss to Atlanta at home, Tevon Coleman dominated as a rusher and receiver – a role that David Johnson can fill and exceed Coleman’s performance. No other running back is ranked higher right now, and Arizona is smart enough to ride his hot hand – and so am I. PICK: Cardinals
(Monday) DENVER (-7) vs. HOUSTON
Houston – hello? Where had your ground game been before the Colts game last Sunday night? Brock Osweiler returns to Denver and has to face the defense that helped him to win the Super Bowl last season, and Osweiler has not looked at all like a solid starter for the Texans. Denver has lost two games in a row (Atlanta, at San Diego) for the first time in a long time, and they will have 11 days to get ready to face their former starting quarterback. Denver’s defense can carry them, but so can their ground game with C.J. Anderson and Devontae Booker. Houston is heading out on the road after a big, emotional comeback win against Indianapolis, and I foresee a big letdown in Denver on Monday. PICK: Broncos
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- (Thursday) GREEN BAY (-7.5) vs. CHICAGO
- LOS ANGELES “FOR THE WIN” (+125) “at” the NEW YORK GIANTS (London, England)
- LOS ANGELES (+3) “at” the NEW YORK GIANTS (London, England)
- WASHINGTON (+1.5) at DETROIT
- JACKSONVILLE (-1) vs. OAKLAND
- NEW ENGLAND (-7) at PITTSBURGH
- (Monday) DENVER (-7) vs. HOUSTON
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+165 ODDS):
- BUFFALO (+3.5) at MIAMI
- NEW ENGLAND (-1) at PITTSBURGH
- ARIZONA (+5) vs. SEATTLE
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+265 ODDS):
- BUFFALO (+3.5) at MIAMI
- NEW ENGLAND (-1) at PITTSBURGH
- ARIZONA (+5) vs. SEATTLE
- (Thursday) GREEN BAY (-1.5) vs. CHICAGO
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+165 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-1) at PITTSBURGH
- KANSAS CITY (-0.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
- (Monday) DENVER (-1) vs. HOUSTON
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+265 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-1) at PITTSBURGH
- KANSAS CITY (-0.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
- (Monday) DENVER (-1) vs. HOUSTON
- (Thursday) GREEN BAY (-1.5) vs. CHICAGO
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- BUFFALO (-2.5) at MIAMI
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- TAMPA BAY (-1.5) at SAN FRANCISCO
- ARIZONA (-1) vs. SEATTLE
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Green Bay, Los Angeles, Washington, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, New England, Arizona, Denver
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 7-7 (50%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 3-8 (27.3%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 3-3 (50%)
Season
- OVERALL: 38-39 (49.4%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 32.8-63 (34.2%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 18-15 (54.5%)
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.