Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season. Let's get started with Week 1, which can be a difficult week to make choices. If you have been on top of the NFL to this point and all through preseason, this might afford you a good advantage and help you to get off to a fast start. Hopefully this will be the case this year.
With two weeks down, I would say that I am starting to get a reasonable handle on the league. I’ve survived well enough over the first two weeks in general, getting around 60% of the games right against the spread. I just need to start picking the right games to mark with a star, and I’ll be rolling. Now comes Week 3, where everyone will hear the “12%” number, as teams that start 0-2 only get to the postseason 12% of the time. Here’s a startling fact for you – teams that are terrible usually start 0-2 and don’t get to the playoffs. Good teams with tough schedules can overcome that deficit, so do not let two weeks jade you just yet. We have another full slate of games, so there is plenty to cover. Let's get started.
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) HOUSTON (-1) at NEW ENGLAND
It is a short week and Foxboro is a tough place to play, but blah blah blah. New England is on their THIRD string quarterback and is likely to not have their best target in TE Rob Gronkowski. Houston is 2-0 for a reason, and it is because their defense has been solid and the passing game has been strong with Brock Osweiler, Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins. New England has managed to build a 2-0 record with Jimmy Garoppolo, but now they have to start Jacoby Brissett on a short week. The Patriots are hoping that they can hold on until Tom Brady returns and will look to LeGarrette Blount and their defense to carry the team, but Houston’s defense is better and defense travels well. Couple that with Miami’s ability to throw on the Patriots in the second half last week and I smell a road win for the Texans. In reality, New England will be very happy to get to 2-2 when Brady returns (or 3-1), so a loss here is not the end of the world. I am picking the Texans, 27-16. PICK: Texans
JACKSONVILLE (+1) vs. BALTIMORE
Plain and simple here: Baltimore’s defense has not looked so hot in the first two weeks. Sure, they beat Buffalo at home, but the Bills’ just fired their offensive coach after just two weeks. Baltimore gave up 20 points in the first quarter to Cleveland, and they have not faced a good passing game yet. I think that the Ravens are susceptible to big plays, and the Jaguars will look to get Allen Robinson deep and test that secondary. Joe Flacco is capable of putting up points, but Blake Bortles has more reliable targets that Baltimore does. This game could go either way, but I am taking the home underdog for the win, something like 30-27. PICK: Jaguars
WASHINGTON (+4.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS
These two divisional rivals always play close games, so it just makes sense to take the points here. Washington is desperate for a win, as a loss puts them beyond Code Red for a must win, all the way to Threat Level Midnight should they get to 0-3, as they would also then be 0-2 in the division. The Giants have played two close contests so far, both victories, but by a total of just four points. Washington appears to be in disarray with players upset at starting quarterback Kirk Cousins, but all will be forgiven with a victory. I expect that this is a close contest into the fourth quarter and that it is decided by less than a touchdown, so give me the desperate team getting points in this one. PICK: Washington
GREEN BAY (-7.5) vs. DETROIT
If only this was 6.5, I would hang three stars on this one. Green Bay gets their home opener against Detroit, a mercurial team that never quite plays as expected. They managed a big win over the Colts on the road to start the year, then lost at home against Tennessee. A trip to Lambeau Field is never easy, but the Packers are getting their first home game of the season against a familiar divisional rival right before their early Week 4 bye. Green Bay will be hungry for a win after a tough loss at Minnesota, and I expect the Packers to be on top by double digits. Aaron Rodgers needs a “get right” game, and this could be just what the doctor ordered. Packers 34, Lions 20. PICK: Packers
MIAMI (-9.5) vs. CLEVELAND
If I had told you that an 0-2 team would be the biggest favorite of the week, would you have been able to guess who it was? Probably not, but here we are with the Dolphins favored by almost 10 points against the Browns, a team starting their third quarterback in three games. Miami has been able to move the ball on both New England and Seattle, but two close, tough losses on the road to two top AFC teams is nothing to be ashamed of to start the season. Cleveland has two losses as well, but a road loss to the Eagles and then blowing a 20-0 lead at home to Baltimore only adds to the mystique of losing for the lowly Browns. I see an 0-3 start in their future and a big struggle on offense this week. Miami 27, Cleveland 13. PICK: Dollphins
ARIZONA (-4) at BUFFALO
If Matt Forte can run at will against Buffalo and Ryan Fitzpatrick can move the chains easily versus the Bills, how do you think David Johnson and Carson Palmer will do this week? Forget the early start for a “West Coast team” here, as the Cardinals are just so many levels better than Buffalo that it should not matter. The only question for me is if Buffalo even gets a touchdown. I would think maybe in garbage time. Arizona wins easily. PICK: Cardinals
CAROLINA (-7) vs. MINNESOTA
As I write this, it looks like Adrian Peterson could be out for the year. Ouch. Not that I think Minnesota could really put up a major fight against the Panthers – just that who knew we would be looking at Fozzy Whittaker against Matt Asiata? That’s not the real matchup, I know, but Cam Newton against Sam Bradford isn’t exactly marquee material either. I expect Carolina to win against a Vikings team that will have a major letdown after losing Peterson and not having the big home crowd in their home opener against a division rival to carry them like last Sunday Night. Panthers deal out a big helping of realtiy here against Minnesota, winning by 10 or more. PICK: Panthers
CINCINNATI (-3) vs. DENVER
This line is moving more and more towards Bengals -3.5, and I completely understand why. Cincinnati is better at home, and this is the first road game of the season for the Broncos and Trevor Siemian. The Bengals more than held their own against the Steelers in Pittsburgh last week, suffering a close loss to a divisional rival. Both defenses will be amped up to stop the other high-powered offense, but I think we are looking at a close game no matter what and I like the Bengals to get after Siemian here in this one. If Cincinnati can stifle Antonio Brown, I think they can handle the Broncos’ receiving corps. The question will be which ground game gets going more than the other, and who “protects the Duke” the most. At 3.5 I would probably lean Denver, which tells you just how close a call this one is. These two 2015 playoff teams should put on quite a show and I think this is the best early game on the Sunday slate. PICK: Bengals
OAKLAND (+1.5) at TENNESSEE
Both teams have a road win and a home loss under their belts, but the Raiders have looked far better on offense than the Titans. The question is, has Oakland looked better because the defense of New Orleans and Atlanta are bad, or are the Raiders really a good offense? I am leaning towards Oakland being a good offense, and that the Raiders can put enough pressure on the run game of Tennessee to force a turnover or two. This is a tougher one to call after the Titans beat Detroit in Detroit, but I will side with what I believe is the better team. PICK: Raiders
SEATTLE (-9.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Let’s see – San Francisco beat Los Angeles 28-0 in Week 1, and the Rams beat Seattle 9-3, so the 49ers should win by 34 points, correct? Fortunately there is not transitive property of football, so they will play this game out with the Seahawks favored by nearly 10 points. That “nearly” is all I need to see, because Seattle is going to be a little desperate to move to 2-1 and get that first divisional victory. They eeked out over Miami at home but a road loss to the Rams is tough. I expect Seattle to pound the 49ers into submission and make Blaine Gabbert look like the mediocre quarterback he really is this week. Seattle 34, 49ers 16. PICK: Seahawks
TAMPA BAY (-4.5) vs. LOS ANGELES
L.A. just got a big win at home over a division rival in Seattle, but now they have to go on a LONG road trip to Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are not exactly rock solid, especially with Doug Martin hurting and likely out. Given that Tampa Bay has a much better passing game and that Charles Sims can produce, I like Tampa Bay to get the win but barely cover. Buccaneers 23, Rams 16. PICK: Buccaneers
INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5) vs. SAN DIEGO
I don’t like picking this game so early in the week, but what can you do. I like that the Colts are only giving 2.5 points (in some places). San Diego is going to rely on their passing game with Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin, which could open things up nicely for Melvin Gordon. The wild card, as always, is Andrew Luck and how he can carry the offense by himself. Losing Donte Moncrief could move this line a bit towards the Chargers, but I expect Indianapolis to use both tight ends down the middle of the field and open up the outside for T.Y. Hilton and Philip Dorsett. Another tough call here, but I will take the over and the Colts for a thin win, 34-31. (Also note, Adam Vinatieri is pretty good, far better than John “First Blood” Lambo.) PICK: Colts
NEW YORK JETS (+3) at KANSAS CITY
Since I have to pick ALL the games, I am taking the Jets here but overall I am staying away from this one. Both teams can move the ball on the ground and through short passing attacks, but Darelle Revis has been toasted so far this year. Can Jeremy Maclin and Alex Smith do it again? I like the Jets slightly more as they have a better passing offense, but both teams can put up points. Arrowhead is a tough place to visit, but the Jets can handle it, plus they have extra rest and are getting a field goal of a head start. Wouldn’t surprise me at all for a “push”, Jets 23-20. PICK: Jets
PITTSBURGH (-3.5) vs. PHILADELPHIA
Wow, Las Vegas is making this tough! Both Pennsylvania teams are 2-0 here, and the winner moves out to a big 3-0 start on the young season. Pittsburgh survived a tough test at home against Cincinnati, and this is the last game they have to go without LeVeon Bell. The Eagles looked quite strong again on Monday Night Football at Chicago with rookie Carson Wentz delivering a strong game again as the new starter. This is a tough call, because if Philadelphia can keep from turning the ball over and play cautious football on offense and maybe get a turnover or two, they can steal this game – but the Steelers will want to get Antonio Brown rolling again. I have gone back and forth on this game several times, but I will avoid the trap of taking the extra 0.5 to entice me to pick the Eagles at home. Pittsburgh is ultimately the better team and Philadelphia has two wins – over Chicago and Cleveland. Steelers 23, Eagles 20. PICK: Steelers
DALLAS (-7) vs. CHICAGO
Sunday Night Football at home in Dallas for the Cowboys against a Jay Cutler-less Bears team. Dallas will go conservative again, running the ball early and often including some runs for QB Dak Prescott. Look for the Dallas defense to be all over journeyman Brian Hoyer as Dallas moves to 2-1. PICK: Cowboys
(Monday) NEW ORLEANS (-3) vs. ATLANTA
Week 3 comes to a close with what could be the highest scoring game of the week – although we thought that last Sunday with these same Saints. Drew Brees is at home though, and the Falcons cannot stop anyone so far as Tampa Bay threw for four touchdowns in Week 1 and Oakland scored four more on Sunday. Brees will have a field day against this secondary, easily getting over 300 yards and at least two scores. The Saints go marching in for a home win in a shootout, 38-31. PICK: Saints
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
- JACKSONVILLE (+1) vs. BALTIMORE
- GREEN BAY (-7.5) vs. DETROIT
- CAROLINA (-7) vs. MINNESOTA
- SEATTLE (-9.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- (Monday) NEW ORLEANS (-3) vs. ATLANTA
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (9-5 ODDS):
- CAROLINA (-1) vs. MINNESOTA
- GREEN BAY (-1.5) vs. DETROIT
- INDIANAPOLIS vs. SAN DIEGO (OVER 45.5)
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS):
- CAROLINA (-1) vs. MINNESOTA
- GREEN BAY (-1.5) vs. DETROIT
- INDIANAPOLIS vs. SAN DIEGO (OVER 45.5)
- DALLAS (-1) vs. CHICAGO
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
- CAROLINA (-1) vs. MINNESOTA
- GREEN BAY (-1.5) vs. DETROIT
- INDIANAPOLIS vs. SAN DIEGO (OVER 45.5)
- DALLAS (-1) vs. CHICAGO
- (Monday) NEW ORLEANS vs. ATLANTA (OVER 47.5)
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (11-1 ODDS):
- CAROLINA (-1) vs. MINNESOTA
- GREEN BAY (-1.5) vs. DETROIT
- INDIANAPOLIS vs. SAN DIEGO (OVER 45.5)
- DALLAS (-1) vs. CHICAGO
- (Monday) NEW ORLEANS vs. ATLANTA (OVER 47.5)
- ARIZONA (+2) at BUFFALO
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (15-1 ODDS):
- CAROLINA (-1) vs. MINNESOTA
- GREEN BAY (-1.5) vs. DETROIT
- INDIANAPOLIS vs. SAN DIEGO (OVER 45.5)
- DALLAS (-1) vs. CHICAGO
- (Monday) NEW ORLEANS vs. ATLANTA (OVER 47.5)
- ARIZONA (+2) at BUFFALO
- LAST-T-WASHINGTON (+10.5) at NEW YORK GIANTS
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- (Thursday) HOUSTON (-1) at NEW ENGLAND
- DALLAS (-7) vs. CHICAGO
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- ARIZONA (-4) at BUFFALO
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Houston, Jacksonville, Green Bay, Arizona, Dallas
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 10-6 (62.5%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 5.8-9 (39.2%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 5-3 (62.5%)
Season
- OVERALL: 19-13 (59.4%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 14.8-23 (39.2%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 9-6 (60.0%)
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
