Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season. Let's get started with Week 1, which can be a difficult week to make choices. If you have been on top of the NFL to this point and all through preseason, this might afford you a good advantage and help you to get off to a fast start. Hopefully this will be the case this year.
Week 1 is one of the toughest to handicap in the NFL as we have not really seen any true live action. The preseason is the preseason and none of that matters. Some teams play vanilla offense and/or defense so the talents and the intangibles are where you really have to make your picks. I have to admit that I was very tempted to just take all of the overs this week with all the emphasis on offense, but two things are holding me back. First, Vegas knows that people love to bet the over, so the totals are usually going to be a little higher than one might expect. Secondly, defenses tend to be ahead of offenses early in the season. I think I will let a lot of this play out in Week 1 and then start to really dig in. Remember that this is a marathon, not a sprint. It is definitely going to be an interesting opening week. Let's get started.
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) NEW ENGLAND (-7) vs. PITTSBURGH
The defending Super Bowl champions open the NFL season with a Thursday Night Football special in Foxboro. Originally this was thought to be a battle of the backups with Tom Brady supposed to be suspended (along with LeGarrette Blount and Pittsburgh's LeVeon Bell), but Brady is going to be starting now. That is going to make a huge difference here. I expect Brady and the Patriots to come out very angry and looking to make a big statement in this contest. Pittsburgh's defense is old and weak, and I expect New England to get 30+ points pretty easily in this game. The Steelers are missing some key options on offense (Bell, Martavis Bryant) due to suspensions, and the offensive line is not at full strength either with center Maurkice Pouncey injured. New England is going to pin its ears back and go after Ben Roethlisberger all night long. The Patriots may not have a few key offensive players (Blount, Brandon LaFell) but Rob Gronkowski can get it done for Brady. I like New England by double digits in a high-scoring and entertaining contest, 34-23. PICK: Patriots
MIAMI (-3.5) at WASHINGTON
Washington is a mess, and I don't mean the guys on Capitol Hill (that's another article, and website, entirely). The Robert Griffin III era ended with a whimper as Kirk Cousins was named the starter not just for Week 1 but for the rest of the season. The only thing that could increase the drama here would be an injury to Cousins that would force Griffin back under center. I expected this Week 1 matchup to play out like this: Griffin would start and play poorly, the home crowd would boo him to the sideline and Miami would win in a rout. Well, Cousins is starting, but I still expect the same outcome (and behavior by the fans). Miami has a good defense, a sound running game with Lamar Miller and an underrated passing game behind Ryan Tannehill. The Dolphins could push for the postseason, and that effort starts here in this game in Week 1. Take Miami for the win, 27-13. PICK: Dolphins
KANSAS CITY (+1.5) at HOUSTON
Let me just say this - I have very little confidence about this pick, and I will be avoiding this one as much as I can in Week 1 contests. Why? I see Houston and Kansas City both as giant unknowns, but both possess the ability to surprise you at any given moment. The Chiefs have a major playmaker in Jamaal Charles, but the Kansas City offensive line and the passing game are both suspect, not to mention how good Houston's defense is expected to be this year. Now, let's talk about Houston for a moment. Arian Foster is out and the woeful quarterback carousel landed on Bryan Hoyer. The Texans do have some potential at receiver in both DeAndre Hopkins and rookie Jaelen Strong, but counting on either player to have a big day is a tall task. I like the Chiefs to win, but barely, and would not be surprised by virtually any outcome here. I may even try and chase down a prop bet of whether J.J. Watt will outscore the Kansas City wide receivers in this contest. PICK: Chiefs
GREEN BAY (-6.5) at CHICAGO
Green Bay was devastated by the loss of Jordy Nelson in the preseason (and the near loss of Randall Cobb as well), but I think that the best recipe for getting off to a good start for the Packers is a trip to Chicago. The Bears could not stop the run last season, and that is one of the hardest things to fix in less than 12 months. Eddie Lacy is going to have a field day, and Chicago is going to be reeling with Alshon Jeffery likely to be at less than full strength even if he starts. Eddie Royal and Martellus Bennett (plus Matt Forte) will all be in a lot of fantasy lineups, but that is because Chicago will be trailing after halftime and be forced to throw all of the second half. I like the Packers for a big road win in the division to start off 1-0, something like 34-20. PICK: Packers
NEW YORK JETS (-3) vs. CLEVELAND
Please do not make me watch this game. Please. I've been looking forward to Week 1 for so long. This game feels like when you are all geared up for football and it is the Hall of Fame preseason game, and then you remember that fourth and fifth string guys will be playing in the second half. Not exactly what you had in mind. Speaking of which, the Browns are at the Jets here, so the analogy may hold true for many. This looks to be a struggle of a contest for both to generate some offense, as both defenses are solid and the offensive playmakers are going to be few and far between for both clubs. I think the Jets can move the ball with veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and Chris Ivory enough to win this game, but I seriously down that this one will be pretty. PICK: Jets
CAROLINA (-3) at JACKSONVILLE
Here is another "avert your eyes" contest on Week 1, but they all can't be Prime Time specials. Jacksonville is getting better with T.J. Yeldon, Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, but none of those guys are household names, and that is for a reason. The Jaguars are just not that good and they are an unreliable pick on a weekly basis, which goes back to their offensive line and the play of QB Blake Bortles. Carolina has the better defense, but a case could be made that they lack enough playmakers on offense after losing Kelvin Benjamin for the year. Can rookie Devin Funchess step up to help TE Greg Olsen? It remains to be seen, but give me Cam Newton and the Carolina defense to secure an ugly road win for Week 1. PICK: Panthers
SEATTLE (-3.5) at ST. LOUIS
There are tons of questions regarding the Rams' running back situation this week - but does it matter? Seattle's defense is formidable, so I would not trust Benny Cunningham or Tre Maon at all here. That leaves Nick Foles and company against the the Seahawk secondary - no thanks. Now, Seattle is not exactly a juggernaut on offense either and it remains to be seen how Jimmy Graham will be utilized, but I would be shocked if he doesn't get at least one touchdown chance. St. Louis and Seattle do play each other tight so that "hook" on the three point line may come into play, but I like Seattle to start the year off with a road win. PICK: Seahawks
INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5) at BUFFALO
Andrew Luck vs. Tyrod Taylor. Do I need to say more? Well, I will - but I think you know who I am picking here. The Colts are viewed as one of the favorites to go to Super Bowl 50 this year (notice it is not "Super Bowl L") and a road win against Rex Ryan's Bills in Week 1 will get that ball rolling. Frank Gore will have space to run this season with Luck as his quarterback, but Buffalo may keep him in check as the Bills have a strong defensive squad this season. I actually like Tyrod Taylor and saw a lot of his play at both Virginia Tech and in Baltimore (preseason), but I do not want to trust him against Andrew Luck. Indianapolis should win this game easily. PICK: Colts
DETROIT (+3.5) at SAN DIEGO
This is another tricky matchup. I think San Diego's defense is the weaker of the two units, and the running game for San Diego also has more question marks. Both Philip Rivers and Matthew Stafford can throw thw ball well enough to put up solid numbers and plenty of points, but I think the Detroit defense is going to get the edge here. I actually am warming up quickly to taking Detroit and the points and even for the straight-up win. Detroit 27, San Diego 20. PICK: Lions
ARIZONA (-2.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
Tell me something - why would you expect New Orleans to do well this year? Is it because of the "name quarterback" in Drew Brees? Well, if that is the case, who exactly is going to be catching the ball from him? Not Jimmy Graham (Seattle) and not Kenny Stills (Miami) and now this week, no C.J. Spiller. So we are down to Brandin Cooks, Marques Colston and Khiry Robinson. Yikes. Arizona finally gets back Carson Palmer and, even if Michael Floyd cannot go, Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Andre Ellington should be able to get the job done on offense. Put the Cardinals defense against Brees and let them get after less formidable recievers and I see Arizona winning going away. PICK: Cardinals
DENVER (-4) vs. BALTIMORE
I have always been a fan of Joe Flacco, and I think he is underrated, just like his top target in Steve Smith. The problem Baltimore has is after you name these two guys and Justin Forsett, the offensive cupboard gets very bare. Tight end is a virtual wasteland and the plans to start rookie Breshad Perriman have gone up in injury smoke. Denver has home field advantage, plenty of offensive weapons to both run and pass the ball and a better defensive squad. This is an easy call for me - Denver by double-digits. PICK: Broncos
CINCINNATI (-3) at OAKLAND
Approach this game with caution. While the Bengals are a "playoff caliber team" and the Raiders are, well, the Raiders - Week 1 is also Week 1. Enough with the cliches Jeff, what do you mean? I mean that Oakland does not know that they are a bad team yet (or they are a young team on the rise and could surprise), while Cincinnati has solid options at running back (Giovani Bernard, Jeremy Hill) plus wide receiver (A.J. Green) but the defense has some injuries. I am concerned that Oakland can steal this game outright and could certainly cover - hence I am avoiding it. The chalk, safe call is to take the Bengals and lay three points, but I am very tempted to go the other way. If the Raiders can win this one they could get on a roll with three winnable games immediately after this one (home vs. Baltimore, at Cleveland, at Chicago). How strange would it be to see Oakland at 4-0? Stranger things have happened, but I would not be that surprised. If it does happen, remember you heared it here first. That's it - I'm taking the Raiders and the points - but I recommend that you rate this game as a low confidence one and avoid it if you can. PICK: Raiders
TAMPA BAY (-3) vs. TENNESSEE
The NFL loves drama (on the field, not off it) so it is no surprise to see Tampa Bay and Tennessee squaring off in Week 1. The two rookie quarterbacks (Marcus Mariota, Jamies Winston) will battle for their first NFL wins as starters, and it should be safe to say that one of them will start their career at 1-0. The question, of course, is which one? For that I look at the supporting cast for each, and the answer is clear. Tampa Bay has a better starting running back (and possbily better backup as well), much better receivers, and a far better defense. Factor in that the Buccaneers are at home and I just love taking Tampa Bay for the early win in the young season. With two road games immediately after this, Tampa Bay needs the win here. Tennessee will try for their first win next week in Cleveland. PICK: Buccaneers
DALLAS (-5.5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
You never really expect a Week 1 game to be a must win, but let me tell you that this is exactly the case for Dallas. If the Cowboys do not beat the Giants here, they will be 0-1 with both a home loss and a divisional loss with a road game next in Philadelphia, followed by a home game against the Faicons then two road contests in New Orleans and New England. Do you see now why they simply must win this game? The Giants are not at full strength on either side of the ball, and with questions at running back for Dallas I expect a ton of Tony Romo and Dez "I got paid" Bryant to show off their value on Sunday Night Football. Take Dallas to the bank, 34-17. PICK: Cowboys
(Monday) PHILADELPHIA (-2.5) vs. ATLANTA
Who doesn't love double-header Monday Night? I know I do, even if it means football well past midnight. So be it – this only happens once a season. Chip Kelly also likes games with wide television audiences, and I still remember him blowing up Washington in his NFL coaching debut. While this may not be the same type of contest, I think there is a distinct possibility that the Eagles score a boatload of points while Matt Ryan and Julio Jones try and keep up. This game is supposed to have the most points of any Week 1 contest, and with Chip Kelly, I can see why. I like the Eagles to score early and often and also put a ton of pressure on Ryan to force a few turnovers and possibly even a defensive score. Philadelphia 41, Atlanta 24. PICK: Eagles
(Monday) MINNESOTA (-2.5) at SAN FRANCISCO
Just 98 hours after Week 1 starts the final game will kickoff to close out the action. Just like a long weekend in Las Vegas, most everyone will be waiting to see it all wrap up and head home before resting up to get after it again in Week 2. That's not quite what the Vikings and 49ers are going to be doing, as they have to wait until late to get their first chance to play late on Monday night. Questions abound for San Francisco on both sides of the ball with new starters at wide receiver (Torrey Smith) and running back (Reggie Bush and Carlos Hyde) and a new head coach and scheme to be implemented. Can Colin Kaepernick round back into a fantasy QB1 again? Can the defense bounce back after many key losses in personnel? I think it is all a moot point as the 49ers are going to be a shell of their former selves while Minnesota takes full advantage. Adrian Peterson is back and will run all over the 49ers in Week 1, and that will set up Teddy Bridgewater for a few big plays. Minnesota should win this one easily and make the 49er faithful very worried about the 2015 team. PICK: Vikings
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
As I said earlier, I gave some serious thought about going after all of the over bets this week, as I think the scores will be higher than expected. I think that rules favoring offense should lead to higher scores, but there are several reasons to be cautious: 1. Defenses are often ahead of offenses early, 2. The Over/Under totals may already have this higher point expectation priced in, and 3. The new kicking rule for extra points may lower points totals in general. So with that in mind, I am going to tread somewhat lightly in Week 1, but I am going to go after some teaser combinations that bring these totals down to a much better value. Here are the teaser items I like with 6-point teases:
- NEW ENGLAND (-1) vs. PITTSBURGH
- GREEN BAY (-0.5) at CHICAGO
- DALLAS (+0.5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
- DALLAS vs. NEW YORK GIANTS (OVER 45)
- PHILADELPHIA (+3.5) vs. ATLANTA
- PHILADELPHIA vs. ATLANTA (OVER 49)
With those “likes” in mind, here are my selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5) at BUFFALO
- 6-POINT TEASER: KANSAS CITY (+7.5) at HOUSTON (UNDER 47)
- 6-POINT TEASER: TAMPA BAY (+3) vs. TENNESSEE (UNDER 48)
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (9-5 ODDS):
- DALLAS (+0.5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
- GREEN BAY (-0.5) at CHICAGO
- NEW ENGLAND (-1) vs. PITTSBURGH
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS):
- DALLAS (+0.5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
- GREEN BAY (-0.5) at CHICAGO
- NEW ENGLAND (-1) vs. PITTSBURGH
- DENVER (+2) vs. BALTIMORE
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
- DALLAS (+0.5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
- GREEN BAY (-0.5) at CHICAGO
- NEW ENGLAND (-1) vs. PITTSBURGH
- DENVER (+2) vs. BALTIMORE
- TAMPA BAY (+3) vs. TENNESSEE
And what would this column be without at least one shot at a For The Win Money Line?
- OAKLAND "FOR THE WIN" vs CINCINNATI (+160)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 6-POINT TEASER: DALLAS (+0.5) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS (OVER 45)
- 6-POINT TEASER: (Monday) PHILADELPHIA (+3.5) vs. ATLANTA (OVER 49)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Denver Broncos, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.