Player Spotlight: Martavis Bryant

Photo: USA Today Sports

Regression or Progression?

Martavis Bryant's rookie year produced mixed results -- but only because he wasn't on the field until Week 7. Once Bryant got the call, he was spectacular, accumulating eight touchdowns as a rookie, which was fourth among rookie receivers. This total placed him behind only Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr., and Kelvin Benjamin. The main difference between Bryant and the others is that Bryant played just 10 games while Evans and Benjamin each started 15 (in fact, Benjamin played in all 16), and Beckham Jr. notably set the football world (both real and fantasy) on fire. Bryant accumulated that fantastic touchdown total despite the following factors:

• He only played 10 games as described above; unlike Beckham Jr. -- who was sidelined due to injury -- Bryant was an healthy inactive in his early-season missed games, typically a sign that a player isn't ready to contribute
• He was targeted just 48 times
• He only caught 26 passes

Those efficiency numbers are literally unparalleled in the history of the NFL. For those that don't know me personally (i.e. most of you reading this), I hate when people use the word "literally" incorrectly. It figuratively makes me want to rip off my ears. So when I say "literally" here, I mean it. Bryant's target-to-touchdown ratio is the best of any receiver who had more than 40 targets in a season.

So while the statistics would suggest that Bryant has to fall back to earth with his touchdown rate, the notion of player progression suggests that he will hone his skills and get better as a football player. He has taken the steps necessary to do so, as this article from the Pittsburgh Tribune Review would suggest:

Bryant said he went into the offseason intent on adding extra muscle after a rookie season in which it took until Week 7 to crack the lineup.

"It was just something I felt like I needed to do," Bryant said. "Just to add a different aspect to my game of being physical, being bigger."

Bryant said he is focusing on mastering the "Z" receiver spot that places him on the outside on the strong side of the field. However, Mann said in three-receiver sets Bryant and third-year receiver Markus Wheaton would be "interchangeable" between the "Z" and the slot.

Bryant is doing all the right things. He's showing the discipline necessary to shape his body to become a better player; he's learning the playbook well enough to be considered at two positions, and he's gaining the trust of his veteran quarterback (which is mentioned in the article but not contained in the quote above). 

Positives

• With all-pro Antonio Brown on the other side, Bryant will very rarely see the opposition's best cornerback or be double-covered.
• Bryant's placement into the lineup in Week 7 has strong positive correlation with the team's overall offensive performance (more on this below in the "Final Thoughts" section).
• Pittsburgh's offense is projected to be one of the league's elite, which will provide Bryant with volume and quality of opportunities.

Negatives

• Bryant had extraordinary efficiency last season, making him a prime candidate for regression in that department.
• With Brown being a "target hog," Bryant may not get the volume to overcome even a tiny bit of regression in his target-to-touchdown ratio.
• Touchdown-heavy, boom-bust players like Bryant can struggle to provide season-long owners with the reliability they desire.

Final Thoughts

While statistics can be more reliable than the "naked eye," the stats that suggest Bryant will regress center mainly on the fact that he caught so many touchdowns on so few targets. The "so few targets" portion of that is indicative of a small sample size. Sure, Bryant's target-to-touchdown ratio is probably unsustainable, but his place in the offense is much more secure this season than last. In fact, Bryant's emergence was almost exactly the point at which Pittsburgh's offense took off. The Pittsburgh offense averaged 10+ more points per game and just under 68 more passing yards per game from Week 7 onward (that was the week of Bryant's first appearance) than they did in Weeks 1-6.

Bryant's one "large sample size" game came in the team's lone playoff game. He played 86% of the offensive snaps -- by far his largest amount of the season -- and turned in a line of five receptions, 61 yards, and one touchdown on nine targets. He showed that he can still perform well on more volume. That one-game sample is obviously even smaller than the 48-target, six-touchdown regular season sample, but it showed that Bryant can blend volume with efficiency and still perform at a high level. While it's just one game, it's something his believers should cite as a reason why he can exceed expectations in 2015.

At the time of this publication, Bryant is being drafted as the 27th wide receiver and 63rd overall pick in PPR drafts, per Footballguys consensus ADP. Depending on the time of owner you are (risk-averse or shoot-for-the-upside), you're likely to disagree with that position in one direction or the other. There are certainly "safer" players who are likely to get more targets (Roddy White, Nelson Agholor, Charles Johnson) going behind Bryant, but there are also players likely to get fewer touchdowns and big plays (Jarvis Landry, Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins) going in front of him. Where Bryant is ultimately selected in each draft will depend on if his future owner believes in the one-game sample in the playoffs or if they believe his touchdown frequency is going to regress.

Projections

Other Viewpoints

My esteemed colleague here at Footballguys, Matt Harmon, put together a chart based on his exceptional #ReceptionPerception series comparing all of the 2014 rookie class in their first NFL season. Note Bryant's success rates here. They show (not surprisingly) a high rate of success on a low number of opportunities.

2nd yr WR discussion on my timeline! Here's the #ReceptionPerception SRVC data sorted by colors. (COLORS!) pic.twitter.com/9wlaLdBDGC

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) June 7, 2015

Esteemed fantasy writer Denny Carter suggests that despite Bryant being a regression candidate, Carter is "bullish" on Bryant. This is due, in part, because of Bryant's effectiveness on high-leverage deep opportunities.

Probably I'm more bullish than most on Martavis Bryant. His current re-draft ADP gives me considerable pause though, even if we expect a marked uptick in opportunity. Bryant's high projection is enticing -- of course it is -- but his median prospects leave a lot to be desired, especially when we compare it to guys like Edelman and Tate. More than 40 percent of Bryant's 2014 targets were deep shots (more than 20 yards in the air), four of which the rookie converted into touchdowns. No receiver saw a higher percentage of their targets come in the form of deep balls in 2014.

Rich Hribar eloquently phrased the argument made in the second paragraph of the "Final Thoughts" section above when he said, "you're anticipating volume to meet unsustainable efficiency in the middle."

Lastly, as I did with my Ryan Tannehill Spotlight, I solicited some "crowd-sourcing" points of view for thoughts on Bryant's 2015 prospects.

@RyanHester13 lot of games in the tip 15 just as many outside the top 60

— Derek's Daycare (@DereksDaycare) June 6, 2015

29 https://t.co/ib6QcuBKm0

— Tim Hester (@TwittsByTim) June 6, 2015

@RyanHester13 22

— Daniel Payton (@danielray83) June 6, 2015

@RyanHester13 26

— Mikey Mo (@MikeyMo79) June 15, 2015

@RyanHester13 25

— Michael Stepney (@MStepney71) June 15, 2015

Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com

Follow @RyanHester13