Player Spotlight: Le'Veon Bell

Photo: USA Today Sports

If you hang out with fantasy football veterans long enough, sooner or later you are bound to hear someone mention “chasing last year’s points”. The idea is that you don’t score points for what happened in the past, so you should only draft players based on what they’re going to give you in the future. If you drafted Peyton Manning because of how valuable he was in a career year, then you’d be guilty of chasing last year’s points.

A similar concept that doesn’t get discussed nearly as much is the idea of “avoiding last year’s busts”. This process is far more subtle than “chasing last year’s points” and harder to identify, but it’s every bit as prevalent. In some cases, you’ll even see players downgraded in 2014 based on the 2013 performance of completely different players.

Heading into the 2013 season, Trent Richardson was a near-unanimous first round selection in redraft leagues and a very popular choice for the #1 overall selection in dynasty startups. According to MFL’s ADP data, Richardson was the 8th player off the board, going just ahead of Marshawn Lynch and LeSean McCoy. We all know how that turned out- Richardson was traded at midseason, was handily outperformed by Donald Brown, and finished the season as the 34th best fantasy RB in standard scoring. McCoy and Lynch, meanwhile, finished as the 2nd and 4th best players at their position.

What does Trent Richardson have to do with Le’Veon Bell, you ask? Absolutely nothing, of course- and that’s the point. The real question is what does Trent Richardson have to do with PERCEPTIONS of Le’Veon Bell, and there I think the link is much clearer. You see, Bell’s 2013 season was statistically very comparable to Richardson’s 2012 season. Both backs had huge usage numbers (21.2 touches per game for Richardson, 22.3 for Bell). Both backs caught a ton of balls (3.4 per game for Richardson, 3.5 for Bell). Both backs parlayed that huge volume into top-12 production when they were on the field. Most importantly, in the eyes of fantasy drafters, neither back was particularly efficient with that huge workload. Trent Richardson averaged a paltry 3.6 yards per carry as a rookie. Le’Veon Bell was even worse, with 3.5 yards per carry. In an effort to avoid last year’s busts, many are downgrading Bell for his similarities to Richardson.

Does this make sense? Were Richardson’s low efficiency numbers really a red flag that we all collectively ignored in 2013? Or is this just another case of our search for patterns leading us to downgrade Bell undeservedly? Perhaps by expanding the sample a little bit, we can shed some light on these questions.

In NFL history, there have been 10 rookie RBs to play at least 8 games, average at least 20 touches per game, and rush for fewer than 4 yards per carry. One of those was Boobie Clark, who was a 12th round draft pick mired in an RBBC. Another was Robert Edwards, who blew out his knee during Pro Bowl festivities after his rookie year and was out of football the following season. The remaining 8 running backs were all selected in the first 3 rounds of the draft, presumably to be starters, and given a heavy workload from the beginning. Here are those 8 RBs with their per-game statistics from their rookie year, along with the average of the entire group minus Bell.

Notice how similar the group average is to Le’Veon Bell’s rookie season- a little bit better rushing, a hair worse receiving, and nearly identical in terms of fantasy points. Also notice that there are several really impressive names on that list. Typically, if you’re touching the ball 20+ times per game as a rookie you’re a pretty good player, even if you aren’t necessarily being efficient with those touches. But how these backs did in their rookie season isn’t what we’re interested in- we want to know how they performed in year 2.

The first thing that jumps out is just how catastrophic Richardson’s sophomore campaign truly was. The second thing that jumps out is just how much of an outlier Richardson’s sophomore campaign was. Even with that year bringing down the averages, though, the backs in the sample managed to increase their yards per carry and fantasy points per game in year N+1. Trent Richardson’s production cratered and Matt Forte’s also dropped a good bit, while Abdul-Jabbar, Cribbs, and Lynch held pretty steady and Williams and Tomlinson rose meteorically. It’s possible that Le’Veon Bell will be the next Trent Richardson, but it’s just as possible that he’s the next Ricky Williams.

But what if those comparisons are too generous to Bell? There’s an awfully big gap between Marshawn Lynch’s borderline-acceptable 3.98 yards per carry and Le’Veon Bell’s truly-awful 3.52 yards per carry. If we eased up on our workload requirements a little, we can get a sample of 10 backs drafted in the first three rounds who got at least 15 touches per game as rookies and averaged fewer than 3.6 yards per carry. One of those RBs, Tucker Frederickson, did not play at all the following season. Here are the other nine backs in that sample, as well as the average of all backs except for Bell:

This new sample removes the Tomlinson, Forte, and Lynch comparisons… but it keeps Ricky Williams and adds Travis Henry and Walter Payton. How did this new cohort do in year N+1?

For those who don’t remember James Jackson, he was a rookie 3rd rounder for the Browns in 2001 who played so poorly the team drafted William Green in the 1st round of the 2002 draft. Even with Jackson pulling down the numbers, this group showed strong improvement across the board in year 2, with increases in every single category except for carries per game. Without Jackson, that increase would be even more dramatic.

Now, I’m not saying that just because their rookie seasons show superficial similarities, Le’Veon Bell is destined to become the next Ricky Williams or Walter Payton. Just that, because of superficial similarities between their rookie seasons, Le’Veon Bell isn’t destined to be the next Trent Richardson, either.

The lesson is that there are a lot of pretty good RBs in NFL history who had high-usage, low-efficiency rookie seasons. Other names with similar seasons that we haven’t seen yet include Emmitt Smith (3.9 yards per carry as a rookie), O.J. Simpson (3.9), Reggie Bush (3.7 ypc), Tiki Barber (3.8), Larry Csonka (3.9), and Charlie Garner (3.7). Trent Richardson was going in the first round last year because historically, players who get a ton of touches their rookie year tend to be pretty good in their second year, even if they aren’t very efficient with those touches. That still remains the case, even with Trent Richardson’s 2013 numbers added and bringing down the averages.

But enough about history, what about Bell himself?

Pittsburgh’s offensive line has been bad for years, but will be returning center Maurkice Pouncey. Pouncey missed 15 games last season with a torn ACL, but the Steelers still recently made him the highest-paid center in the league. His return should help an offensive line that gave Bell far too little help. In addition, Bell was not nearly as bad of a runner as his low ypc would suggest. Bell missed most of the preseason with an injured foot, entering the season rusty and playing his way into shape. Bell’s lack of breakaway speed, (4.60 forty-yard dash time), means he doesn’t get as many long runs to pad his yard per carry average. Bell’s rookie touchdown total was aided by the fact that he finished 2nd in carries inside the 5-yard line, behind only Marshawn Lynch, despite missing three games to start the year. Fortunately for Bell, despite being a sophomore, he’s already the team’s most experienced goal-line option: Pittsburgh threw 35 passes to players other than Bell at the goal line last year. Jerricho Cotchery and Emmanuel Sanders accounted for 10 each; both players will be lining up in different cities in 2014. Antonio Brown received 4 goal-line targets, but for his career he’s been one of the least efficient receivers in the NFL at converting targets to touchdowns in the red zone. Heath Miller also received 4 targets, and given his history, he should be a major factor in the red zone for the Steelers, but nobody else on Pittsburgh’s roster got more than two targets at the goal line last year. Aside from Miller and the threat of Roethlisberger running the ball himself, there are no proven red-zone threats in Pittsburgh other than Bell himself.

Despite bringing in LeGarrette Blount from the New England Patriots, Bell remains a workhorse in that offense. Blount is a talented runner who might nibble away at Bell’s carries, but Blount has just 23 receptions through four seasons in the NFL; he is unlikely to have any impact at all on the 3+ receptions per game that boost Bell’s fantasy value so much. Given Blount’s salary ($3.85 million for two years), the most likely scenario is that Pittsburgh merely considers him a change-of-pace. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has already reported that they expect Blount to handle 6-8 carries per game this year; that’s more than the 5 carries per game that Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman combined for in 2013 once Bell returned, but not by a lot. With the 97th pick in the draft, the Steelers selected speedster Dri Archer. He will probably have more impact in the passing game, but at just 174 pounds, Archer seems unlikely to be a serious threat to Bell’s volume. The additions of Blount and Archer likely have very little to do with Bell himself. Instead, they’re probably a result of the fact that of the three backs behind Bell on the depth chart last year, two are out of football and one is in Arizona. Even a horse like Bell needs quality backups. If there’s one thing our historical exercise has demonstrated, though, it’s that guys who are workhorses as rookies have a tendency to remain workhorses as sophomores.

Positives

• The Pittsburgh Steelers thought highly enough of Bell’s talent to draft him in the 2nd round last year with backs like Montee Ball and Eddie Lacy still on the board.
• Last season, Pittsburgh had no qualms against loading Bell’s plate with all the touches he could handle.
• Bell is a talented receiver, which adds a huge bonus to his fantasy value, especially in PPR leagues.
• Pittsburgh is extremely short on players capable of converting touches into touchdowns in the red zone, so Bell should remain a huge part of their plans when approaching the goal line.

Negatives

• Bell lacks breakaway speed and doesn’t have the ability to salvage a rough day with a single big play.
• Blount and Roethlisberger are both quality rushing threats at the goal line and could vulture a few touchdowns.
• Bell’s fantasy production is very volume-dependent, and if any threats to that volume arise, his value would take a big hit.

Final Thoughts

Le'Veon Bell isn't a flashy back like Eddie Lacy, or a game-breaker like C.J. Spiller. He's not a star like Adrian Peterson or a dominant force like Jamaal Charles. He doesn't play in a sexy offense like LeSean McCoy. Perhaps the best comparison for Bell is a player whose name came up on the list of historical comps: Matt Forte. Forte has always been kind of a boring fantasy pick who just churned out low-end RB1 season after low-end RB1 season on the back of huge volume totals, supplementing with enough receiving value to make him a consistent PPR star. If that's the path that Le'Veon Bell's career is destined to take, he's going to spend a lot of time outperforming his preseason ADP over the next few years.

Le'Veon Bell Projections

Other Viewpoints

Scott Brown at ESPN reports on Bell's strong finish in 2013

In his first eight games last season, Pittsburgh Steelers RB Le'Veon Bell rushed for 455 yards and averaged 3.2 yards per carry. In his final five games, Bell rushed for 405 yards and averaged 4.0 yards per carry. 

Bell, when reflecting on his first NFL season, attributed the improvement to more than just the natural rookie progression. 

"I started getting more healthy because my foot was bothering me a lot last year," Bell said after the Steelers' final voluntary offseason practice. "The more healthy I got, the more reps I got, the slower the game became to me and the more confidence I got in myself. Hopefully I just come in (to this season) healthy and pick up where I left off last year." 

Evan Silva at Rotoworld discusses where Bell ranks in redraft leagues

I didn't like Bell on college tape, but I understand his real-life NFL value much better after one year. He's big enough to block edge rushers in pass protection. He's an excellent receiver. Bell's YPC average may never be prolific, but he's a chain-moving offense sustainer and excels in short-yardage situations. For the first time in a long time, Pittsburgh has continuity on the offensive line, and a running back capable of handling heavy workloads. LeGarrette Blount is only expected to see 5-8 carries per game. Still only 22 years old, the arrow is pointing up on Le'Veon.

Neal Coolong from SBNation reacts to Silva's ranking

Silva may be praising his receiving ability, but seems to discount the value of that as a production metric. I'm not entirely sure the description of excelling in short-yardage situations is merited at this point in his career, but the value he can bring from a yardage perspective in the receiving game shouldn't be ignored here.

Apply his targets over a 16-game season, he's a 55-catch running back. At roughly nine yards a pop, you're looking at an additional 500 yards through the air. And that's based on 13 games of him as a rookie.

Bell has a legitimate shot to crack 1,600 yards from scrimmage, and with a more consistent offensive line as well as a focus in the red zone, he could top 10 touchdowns as well.