Footballguys Staff Mock Draft 3: Auction

Photo: Kirthmon F. Dozier, USA Today Sports

LEAGUE PARAMETERS

• 12 teams
• 20 roster spots
• Starting Lineup
• 1 quarterback
• 2 running backs
• 3 wide receivers
• 1 tight end
• 1 flex (either a running back, wide receiver, or tight end)
• 1 team defense

LEAGUE SCORING

• Offensive Players
• 4 points - passing touchdown
• 6 points - rushing/receiving touchdown
• 0.04 points - passing yard
• 0.1 points - rushing/receiving yard
• 1 point - reception
• Team Defense
• 6 points - touchdown
• 2 points - turnover recovered
• 2 points - safety
• 1 point - sack
• 10 points - Offensive points against: 0-0
• 7 points - Offensive points against: 1-6
• 3 points - Offensive points against: 7-14
• 0 point - Offensive points against: 15-20
• 0 points - Offensive points against: 21-99
• 6 points each - Number of Defensive and Special Teams Touchdowns

Starting with Team 1, we'll go over each team's winning bids

Jeff Haseley - Team 1

Overall Strategy: Saving at quarterback and tight end

Best Pick(s):

Philip Rivers ($4) - Saving money at quarterback is a noble pursuit. Doing it and still landing a quarterback helming a potential top-5 offense is gold. Granted, we are getting ahead of ourselves. That offense is just a paper tiger for now, after all, but it has some serious potential with Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, Melvin Gordon, Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin and even aging Antonio Gates as skill players.

Worst Pick(s):

Robert Woods ($1) - With all the options available in Los Angeles, Robert Woods seems unlikely to make any sort of fantasy impact. That is true even if one or two wideouts in front of him get injured. There were a ton of great $1 options at receiver; Woods was not one of them.

Evaluation:

Jeff’s draft was a prime example of the possibilities afforded in an auction draft while being a spendthrift at quarterback and tight end. Rivers is an excellent option liable to crack the top eight in scoring, and Tyrod Taylor is a fantastic backup with huge scoring potential any given Sunday. Jeff landed one of the strongest running back corps in the draft, and his wideouts should be plug-and-play if they can stay healthy.

Daniel Simpkins - Team 2

Overall Strategy: Spam wide receivers

Best Pick(s):

Russell Wilson ($13) and Keenan Allen ($19) - Considering Rodgers had gone for $27 just two quarterbacks ago, Wilson at $13 was a huge bargain. He is at the top of the second tier of quarterbacks.

Keenan Allen is a personal favorite in PPR leagues, a top-10 receiver dogged by injury concerns. Allen scored 20.4 PPG in PPR leagues back in 2015, good for sixth in the league. The Chargers have one of the most potent offenses on paper, and Allen’s health is being baked into his price.

Worst Pick(s):

Mike Williams ($5) and Corey Davis ($9) - Daniel clearly wanted talent at wide receiver, but you can only start so many. While Allen is one wideout who could reasonably demand a handcuff, Daniel had more than enough to cover the loss. More importantly, Davis was a case of auction faux pax -- never bid on players you don’t want or need. He admitted to price enforcing on Corey Davis, never intending on drafting the Tennessee rookie. Fortunately, Davis only cost $9, but he probably contributed to the fact Simpkins drafted just one tight end.

Evaluation:

Drafting for best-ball leagues conditions us to think we need to take starting-quality backups, so it was a bit jarring to see Daniel take a solitary tight end. Jimmy Graham may not be the stud he once was, but he is a quality starter. Why take a backup when you only plan on starting one all year? Daniel will cross the injury or bye bridge when he gets there.

Devin Knotts - Team 3

Overall Strategy: Stacking good offenses, studs ‘n duds

Best Pick(s):

Carlos Hyde ($15) and Kenny Britt ($2) - The 49ers are rebuilding, and some doubt Carlos Hyde’s fantasy value. I happen to be one of those who thinks Hyde is in for a big year as the starter in a Kyle Shanahan offense. Until we get some concrete news otherwise, Hyde is the starter in San Francisco; everything else is noise.

Britt was a phenomenal value at $2, especially considering Devin had no money to spend at receiver beyond Julio Jones. Britt was 26th in PPR scoring last season, and he is actually getting an offensive upgrade by going to the Browns. Yes, that was written with a straight face.

Worst Pick(s):

Leonard Fournette ($27) and Sam Bradford ($1) - Devin had a solid draft with little to dislike. That said, Leonard Fournette isn’t my favorite value here. He is a one-dimensional back in a middling offense, and there were several higher-ranked backs who went for less. Sam Bradford is mainly here because he has the same bye week as Tom Brady. Plus I just don’t expect he will put up starting-caliber fantasy numbers at any point this season.

Evaluation:

Rob Gronkowski may have been pricy at $28, but he is in a tier unto himself at the tight end position. The question is whether he can give Devin 12-plus games to meet his value. Pairing him with Tom Brady gives him a season-long stack from one of the best offenses in the league. That goes double with his Falcons stack of Devonta Freeman and Julio Jones. After spending big for those guys, Devin did a masterful job of filling in the gaps at wide receiver with Britt, Mike Wallace, and Cam Meredith, cheap options likely to see starter-level target counts next season.

John Norton - team 4

Overall Strategy: Saving at quarterback and tight end

Best Pick(s):

Mark Ingram ($11) and Henry Hunter ($5) - Ingram is one of the forgotten souls of the 2017 fantasy offseason. Yes, the Saints appear to have crowded him in the backfield, but he should still command the majority of touches in a good offense. At $11, it’s hard to argue he’s not a value.

Henry Hunter is a top-eight fantasy tight end this season, and nabbing him for $5 was a huge value for John.

Worst Pick(s):

Eric Decker ($11) and Houston Texans D/ST ($4) - One of the little tricks of auction drafting involves nominating team defenses early to see who wastes some change. Team defenses are rarely worth more than $1, let alone $4, which is why the Texans defense was overpriced. Add to that the fact Jon took a second defense and there was just way too much money spent at the position.

Decker isn’t a horrible option all things considered, but $11 was a bit much to spend on the Titans’ No. 1 receiver. John seemed to prioritize Decker, possibly having the price boosted by another suitor. But comparable options like DeSean Jackson, Emmanuel Sanders, and even Mike Wallace went for significantly less money.

Evaluation:

This was a good all-around draft for John; his squad has no glaring weaknesses. It is a nice example of what you can do in an auction draft when you don’t spend huge money on one or two players. John still ponied up for Michael Thomas ($40) and Jordan Howard ($39), and those guys aren’t far off from some players who went for more money. His savings allowed him to fill in the roster with quality players where others relied on $1 bids.

John Mamula - team 5

Overall Strategy: Spend big at receiver, skimp at tight end

Best Pick(s):

Theo Riddick ($3) - Wrist surgeries aside, Theo Riddick represents one of the best PPR values out there right now. Riddick was eighth in PPR PPG last season, unfortunately one cut short by injuries. If he can stay healthy, he is a clear-cut starter in this format. That makes him a huge bargain.

Worst Pick(s):

Samaje Perine ($6) - Everything is relative, so $6 spent on a guy who might win the starting job for his team isn’t the worst investment. But Samaje Perine is all hype, and he is a rookie competing with Chris Thompson behind Rob Kelley right now.

Evaluation:

John had arguably the best draft of the night. Landing Drew Brees at $17 just before Rodgers went for $27 must have felt good. Taking two potential top-5 receivers in Mike Evans and Jordy Nelson gives him a strong floor, and Tyreek Hill vaults the ceiling on his squad. Demarco Murray is a solid RB1 in this format, and Riddick spearheads a decent corps behind him. John’s biggest trouble will come at tight end, but Coby Fleener and O.J. Howard each have potential for big seasons if they can capitalize on their opportunities.

Justin Howe - team 6

Overall Strategy: Wide receiver blowout

Best Pick(s):

Bilal Powell ($11) and Cam Newton ($5) - The Jets offense is liable to be worst in the league, so investing in anyone there could prove unwise. If you were to pick one player you must have there, though, it would be Bilal Powell. That is especially true considering he is a great pass-catcher and the Jets are going to spend a lot of time playing catch-up this season.

Cam Newton was just a fabulous value at just $5. His fantasy stock has bottomed out after a disastrous 2016 season, and he should bounce back with new and healthy weapons this year.

Worst Pick(s):

Stefon Diggs ($20) - For all the money Justin spent at receiver, Stefon Diggs at $20 may have been a bit much. The Vikings offense just isn’t all that potent, and Diggs is very much a boom-or-bust proposition on a weekly basis. Having him in your lineup when he hits will be huge, but how often will you guess right on Sundays?

Evaluation:

Justin clearly wanted a strong wide receiver corps for his team, and he got one. Pairing Dez Bryant with A.J. Green is going to give some peace of mind at the position, and Willie Snead will probably wind up starting more than Diggs most of the season. All in all, Justin has a great starting squad. It’s the bench that leaves a bit to be desired. There isn’t much to like at running back behind Melvin Gordon and Powell, and we already talked about how Diggs is a bigger bust than boom candidate. I have a feeling Eric Ebron and Cameron Brate are going to take turns disappointing Justin this year, too.

Mark Wimer - team 7

Overall Strategy: Mostly balanced

Best Pick(s):

Matthew Stafford ($3), DeSean Jackson ($4), and Lamar Miller ($22) - What is the hangup on Lamar Miller in the fantasy realm? Sure, D’Onta Foreman is in town now, but the recently arrested rookie isn’t going to unseat Miller as the bell cow. At the very least, Miller’s pass-catching skills should make him valuable in PPR leagues.

Worst Pick(s):

Travis Kelce ($32) - With all the values to be found at tight end, Travis Kelce was quite the luxurious pick at $32. Rob Gronkowski and Jordan Reed went for $28 and $25, respectively, and they were the only other two above $20 at the position. While Kelce is probably going to land in the top five at the position, it’s hard to argue this was a good value.

Evaluation:

Kelce is the only premiere player on this team. Mark opted to spread out his monies throughout the rest of his squad, and what we get is a roster full of Tier 2 and 3 players. That’s not necessarily a bad thing -- it’s clear he will have viable starters throughout the season if his squad stays healthy -- but there isn’t a lot of potential for top-10 scoring seasons. That may not matter if Mark can massage his starting lineups to maximize matchups on a weekly basis.

Matt Bitonti - team 8

Overall Strategy: Studs ‘n duds

Best Pick(s):

Derek Carr ($7) - Nabbing Derek Carr for $7 was a master stroke for Bitonti, who blew most of his budget on three players. Carr is a borderline Tier 2 quarterback heading into 2017, and the arrow is pointing up on his offense.

Worst Pick(s):

Todd Gurley ($38) - I suppose the risk associated with Todd Gurley playing in one of the worst offenses in the league is baked into his price, but what exactly did he show last season to prove he is worth a top-10 auction salary? Gurley was 25th in per-game PPR scoring last season, and the Rams offense doesn’t seem improved much.

Evaluation:

Ezekiel Elliott wasn’t bad at $55 considering the prices paid for Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson. Even with a potential suspension looming, 14 games of top-5 running back production is worth that cost. But aforementioned Gurley ate up too much salary, and all Matt has on the bench are rookies Alvin Kamara and Marlon Mack. That’s quite a sinkhole at the position. Depth is an issue for Matt at receiver, too, where T.Y. Hilton stands alone as a weekly starter. There simply isn’t much else to like outside Derek Carr and Greg Olsen on this team. Matt’s draft shows us the perils of the studs ‘n duds strategy.

Maurile Tremblay - team 9

Overall Strategy: Balanced approach

Best Pick(s):

Ty Montgomery ($16) and Kyle Rudolph ($8) - One of the more undervalued running backs of the offseason plays in one of the best offenses in the league. Ty Montgomery may not fit the mold of a workhorse, but he’s not going to need 20 touches a game to make a huge impact. Montgomery brings the pass-catching ability you need in a PPR league. At $16, Montgomery is a steal.

Did you realize Kyle Rudolph was a top-5 tight end last season? Because that news surprised me when I looked up after the dust settled. Obviously fantasy owners don’t know or perhaps expect him to repeat his breakout campaign. At $8, though, Rudolph is a solid investment at a position that is wide open beyond the top couple of guys.

Worst Pick(s):

Kelvin Benjamin ($12) - On the one hand, Kelvin Benjamin heads into camp as the clear-cut No. 1 receiver in Carolina. On the other hand, he looks like an out-of-shape tight end.

Evaluation:

Going after the top PPR receiver wasn’t cheap, but Maurile set himself up nicely from the start with Antonio Brown. He also prioritized inexpensive, pass-catching running backs with huge upside, allowing him to compensate for spending big at receiver while maximizing his potential at running back. Maurile’s is one of the strongest teams in the staff draft.

Stephen Holloway - team 10

Overall Strategy: Zero RB

Best Pick(s):

Ben Roethlisberger ($4) and Odell Beckham ($49) - Like Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger represents a huge value. Even better, we have already seen how potent the offense can be in Pittsburgh if everyone stays on the field. Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, and Martavis Bryant represent arguably the best trio of weapons in the entire league.

Worst Pick(s):

Alshon Jeffery ($19) - Stephen had another one of those drafts that was hard to pick apart. If I had to choose the worst pick among his lot, though, it would be Alshon Jeffery. Call me cynical, but injury history plus an overrated quarterback don’t scream value to me. Jeffery wasn’t terribly expensive, but there were many better values around him.

Evaluation:

Strong at receiver, tight end, and quarterback, Stephen is going to pray that a few of his sub-$10 running backs can exceed their value. Legarrette Blount should outperform his salary, and Doug Martin will be good once he returns from suspension. Can Joe Williams really break into a major role in San Francisco? Will D’onta Foreman shake off a shaky offseason and cut into Lamar Miller’s role in Houston? These are questions that could make or break Stephen’s fantasy squad.

Bear Heiser - team 11

Overall Strategy: Spreading the wealth

Best Pick(s):

Davante Adams ($19) - Unlike Terrelle Pryor (see below), Davante Adams has a top-10 fantasy finish. He also has Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball to him, and he was $8 less expensive. Granted, his touchdown rate will regress, but Adams should still flirt with top-15 status if he stays on the field.

Worst Pick(s):

Jay Ajayi ($40) and Terrelle Pryor ($27) - Nothing would make me happier than Jay Ajayi reprising or even expanding his role as a force in Miami’s backfield. But how can we reconcile that he got nearly half of his PPR production in four games? He caught just 27 passes last season to boot, and there is no reason to believe he will have a bigger role in the passing game going forward.

Terrelle Pryor had a career year. That amounted to 21st in fantasy scoring on 141 targets. He ostensibly gets a quarterback upgrade in Washington, but I wouldn’t expect him to improve much on his output last season. He was the 13th-most expensive receiver in this draft, a bit rich for my blood.

Evaluation:

Bear didn’t pay top dollar for his players, but he spent quite a bit on his starting lineup. And it’s a pretty good one, starting with Andrew Luck and ending with Jordan Reed at the skill positions. But can Luck and Reed stay on the field? The cupboard is bare on the bench for Bear, and he’ll need some unexpected performances or a high-wire waiver act to boost him through bye season and injuries.

Darin Tietgen - team 12

Overall Strategy: Studs ‘n Duds

Best Pick(s):
Le’Veon Bell ($63) - True, Bell cost a pretty penny. But he was worth the money.
Bell is the clear-cut top running back in fantasy football heading into 2017, particularly in PPR leagues. You might make an argument that David Johnson or Ezekiel Elliott deserve the top spot, but you would be wrong. When healthy and not suspended, Bell is a fantasy wrecking ball. He scored the most points-per-game last season after his return.

Worst Pick(s):

Aaron Rodgers ($27) - This was a classic case of overpaying for the last guy in a top tier. Aaron Rodgers is in Tier 1 along with Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Andrew Luck. Brees had just gone for $17 before Darin drafted Rodgers, after which there was a clear dropoff in fantasy value. The trouble with nabbing Rodgers at $27 was twofold for Darin, however -- not only was he the most expensive quarterback, but Darin had already spent $140 on two running backs. While Rodgers is a surefire top-5 quarterback, the positional and overall team value was simply not there.

Evaluation:

Darin was clearly out for auction blood from the start, nabbing David Johnson for $77 and Le’Veon Bell for $63. Those were the only two players taken north of $60, and they represented 70 percent of Darin’s budget. Add Rodgers to that lot and he had just $33 left to spend on 17 more roster spots. It was certainly a bold start, and Darin’s team will There’s a reason they call it the “studs ‘n duds” strategy -- it’s a matter of savvy when you’re limited to $1 bids for the bulk of your squad. Figuring out who to start at wide receiver is going to be a nightmare on a weekly basis, and any missed time from the studs will be a huge loss for Darin.

Auction by Highest Winning Bid

Winning bids by Position

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com

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