Footballguys Staff Mock Draft 14, Auction, 12 team FPC scoring

Photo: Kim Klement, USA Today Sports

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LEAGUE PARAMETERS 

• 12 teams
• 20 roster spots
• Starting Lineup
• 1 quarterback
• 2 running backs
• 2 wide receivers
• 1 tight end
• 2 flex (either a running back, wide receiver, or tight end)
• 1 team defense
• 1 Kicker

LEAGUE SCORING

• Offensive Players
• 4 points - passing touchdown
• 6 points - rushing/receiving touchdown
• 0.04 points - passing yard
• 0.1 points - rushing/receiving yard
• 1 point - reception
• Team Defense
• 6 points - touchdown
• 2 points - turnover recovered
• 2 points - safety
• 1 point - sack
• 10 points - Offensive points against: 0-0
• 7 points - Offensive points against: 1-6
• 3 points - Offensive points against: 7-14
• 0 point - Offensive points against: 15-20
• 0 points - Offensive points against: 21-99
• 6 points each - Number of Defensive and Special Teams Touchdowns

Starting with Team 1, we'll go over each team's winning bids

Aaron Rudnicki - TEAM 1

Overall Strategy:

Secure two stud runners – including the best one on Earth – and throw quantity at wide receiver

Best Pick(s)

Wide receiver value – Aaron really did the “grab plentiful value” movement right at wideout. After spending a combined $40 on two solid WR2 types, Aaron used the tail end of the auction to secure sneaky volume and dynamite upside to fill out his depth chart. He paid just $14 to secure Rishard Matthews, Adam Thielen, and Zay Jones – all dynamic options with better volume outlook than they’re given credit for – and tacked on two $2 guys at the bottom that both carry off-and-on WR3 ceilings.

Worst Pick(s)

Jordan Howard ($36) – I don’t hate Howard at all, but I don’t like spending so much on that second running back tier. Aaron bought in hard and early on him, money I feel would’ve been better steered toward an upgrade at WR2. In a toothless offense with shaky quarterbacking and unpredictable touchdown opportunity, Howard could wind up spinning his wheels a lot; he strikes me as carrying a similar floor as the much-cheaper Isaiah Crowell and Lamar Miller.

Evaluation

Aaron went with the opposite strategy I usually take – he chose quality at RB and quantity at WR – but he made it work nicely. I have no concerns over his WR depth, and he did well to secure both floor and ceiling everywhere.

post-draft questions

1. What was your strategy going into the auction and how did that turn out? Share any specific ups and downs that you had throughout the auction. 

My typical auction strategy is to try and bid up players early and allow the aggressive owners to overpay while looking for any potential values that may emerge. Then, hopefully, when we get to the middle of the auction I’m one of the few owners with plenty of money left over to scoop up extra value and build a very deep roster. That works great in a best-ball type league, but I decided to switch things up a bit here and be more aggressive with the hope of building a starting lineup that can dominate. I got off to a great start there with the addition of David Johnson for $60 very early in the draft. I’m pretty sure the consensus #1 overall player in the draft is worth 30% of my overall budget. However, I followed that up with another aggressive move to land Jordan Howard ($36) as my RB2. That probably wasn’t a huge need and perhaps that money should have been saved to build a stronger WR group, but I felt it was a pretty fair price for a top-10 RB. Obviously, when you do that, you need to cut some corners so I had to be patient after landing those two players and wait for a lot of the WR prices to come down before I was active again. Despite that, I was pretty happy with the quality of WRs I was able to get in the end and believe this is a team that would contend for a title.

2. What advice would you give to someone participating in an auction draft?

It’s a fine line between playing it safe and waiting for everybody to deplete their resources, and waiting too long only to be left with plenty of cash and nobody to spend it on. Both types of mistakes can doom your chances, so you need to be flexible. If you want to grab a high priced player (or several) early, it can certainly help your team if you feel confident that those players will live up to expectations and help carry your team.  You just need to dial it back soon to avoid being the guy who locks up 4 or 5 studs early and then has to fill out their roster with $1 players. If you decide to sit out the early part of the auction when most of the elite players are put up for bid, then you need to be active after most owners have picked up one or two of those guys when they start to get a little nervous about using up all their money too early. At that point, you should have a good idea of what the relative values are for each player and position so you can bid appropriately. Lastly, if you see 2 or 3 players left that you consider to then of a positional tier, it’s generally better to go after the first guy rather than waiting and potentially getting sucked into a bidding war with other desperate owners for the last player.

3. Give a few examples of tips, tricks, strategies or decisions that can improve your ability to have a successful auction. 

Don’t panic, as there is plenty of talent available and more than one way to build a strong roster. If you skip out on the early players that would often go in the first round or two of a standard draft, you should have enough money to load up on players that would be considered 3rd to 5th round players. I often spend the early parts of auctions putting players I don’t really want up for bid. The hope there is obviously that my fellow owners will spend most of their money, and leave less competition for me to bid on players I really want later on. In general, I think it’s most important to be flexible and willing to adjust your strategy as you go. Also, don’t load up too early because then you won’t be able to take advantage of any mistakes that people make. 

Alex Miglio - Team 2

Overall Strategy:

Lock down Aaron Rodgers; spend up to the scoring format at tight end

Best Pick(s)

Kenny Britt ($6) – Alex didn’t prioritize WR quality much, spending up instead om the peripheral spots (QB and TE). As a result, he needs his cheap wideouts to hit value, and Britt is in perfect position to do that at just $6. The fact that he’s consistently coming so much cheaper than the likes of Cameron Meredith and DeSean Jackson is just baffling to me. Britt is the only receiver in Cleveland who’s even marginally proven, and he showed last year what he can do with 130-ish targets – pretty much what he projects to in this barren situation. You can wring your hands over the Browns factor all you like, but Britt finished as the PPR WR30 with Jared Goff’s Rams last year. Is he really in a worse situation now?

Worst Pick(s)

Aaron Rodgers ($26) – Alex spent big and early on Rodgers, but there’s massive QB value all over this auction season. Rodgers is Rodgers, of course, but this year’s quarterbacks are still just as tightly-clustered as they usually are. Alex could’ve had Drew Brees for significantly less – or any of the Cam Newton/Matt Ryan tier for less than $10 – and upgraded majorly elsewhere.

Evaluation

While I don’t agree with his prioritizing of Rodgers, I still like what Alex put around him, especially at RB. He’s loaded with attractive rotational guys that came very cheaply – including Ezekiel Elliott for below market value – and he’s set up nicely for his TEs to carry him to glory in the FPC format.

post-draft questions

1. What was your strategy going into the auction and how did that turn out? Share any specific ups and downs that you had throughout the auction. 

This was my first auction draft on MFL, and it has been quite a while since I've done one with staff. So preparation was difficult. I went into the draft trying to be aggressive without overdoing it. With no "expected" values on MFL, it felt like the Wild West. You could get a general sense of what players were going to cost, but values seemed wildly different than what I'm used to in many cases. 

Quarterback was an adventure for me. First, I wound up with Aaron Rodgers for $26. That's not a bad price, but I generally like to save at the position. So I had to pivot. I was almost caught in an auction no-no, though, when Drew Brees nearly ended up on my team. I thought I was modestly price enforcing by bidding $14. Devin saved me at the last minute and wound up winning Brees at $15. 

Never. Bid. On. Players. You. Can't. Afford.

2. What advice would you give to someone participating in an auction draft?

Well, I'd tell you, but then you'd be getting the cliffs notes version of my auction draft primer! You can also read the auction draft roundtable I hosted with some fantastic advice from other Footballguys.

3. Give a few examples of tips, tricks, strategies or decisions that can improve your ability to have a successful auction. 

Same answer!

Andy Hicks - Team 3

Overall Strategy:

Ultra-balanced (only one dollar baby), with a focus on locking up whole backfields and chasing WR upside

Best Pick(s)

Jordan Reed ($21) – Yes, he’s a walking “questionable” tag, but the price tag was great for this format. Remember that FPC scoring places a premium on TE receptions, so the gap between an 80-catch TE and a 60-catch TE is amplified noticeably. And Andy landed Reed for virtually half of Rob Gronkowski’s $40 cost. Reed carries a scary injury floor, but the massive upside for volume and touchdowns is tantalizing if you’re not required to overpay for it. Andy wasn’t, and he didn’t.

Worst Pick(s)

Eddie Lacy ($7) – I get the concept of locking up an entire backfield, but the Seattle unit isn’t one I’m interested in this year. To me, Lacy is looking like little more than a $3 flier at this point – he’s a perpetually injured and out-of-shape question mark in a backfield that no longer feeds one back at a time. And Prosise carries massive injury risk of his own; I love the $2 cost, but Andy left his RB corps so thin that he’s relying on him more heavily than he should be.

Evaluation

Andy’s balanced approach worked nicely; he fielded solid starters and didn’t overpay on any big names. He did pay a little more for QBs than I’d like to see, and I’m not particularly keen on some of his upside choices at wideout. But it’s hard to argue with his projected starting lineup. It’s packed with proven, stable producers and a handful of volume-ceiling guys who could easily outdo my projections.

post-draft questions

1. What was your strategy going into the auction and how did that turn out? Share any specific ups and downs that you had throughout the auction. 

My main strategy was to have money left at the end to snap up the players that others couldn't afford. This was obviously going to be reliant on quality players being available and others spending their budgets early. This strategy also relies on you keeping your eye on the ball and not letting other players go for under market values. I thought the strategy was heading for a major failure once I had 4 successful bids in about 5 minutes that shed $109 of my $200 early on, but for that price I had a stud running back in Devonta Freeman for considerably less than David Johnson and Le'veon Bell, 2 starting receivers in this format in Amari Cooper and Jarvis Landy and a stud Tight End in Jordan Reed. I knew quarterback would be relatively cheap to fill and getting another few quality running backs wasn't going to be an issue. Depth at WR and TE were my only concerns. Very quickly though most of the others were spending most of their reserves and there were only 2 or 3 of us with the cash to be the auction bullies. I could afford to tie up the running games in Atlanta and Seattle, as well as getting a solid prospect in Ameer Abdullah to add depth to the position. At QB, I had 3 of my top 12 at the position in Stafford, Roethlisberger and Dalton for $10 cheaper than Aaron Rodgers cost.
At Tight End I added Coby Fleener and Jared Cook combined for less than it cost for 11 Tight Ends. Wide Receiver depth is where I probably paid the biggest price in draft quality. So many of the depth options went for $1 or $2 more than I was prepared to pay and in keeping a disciplined budget I had to be patient. While Brandon Marshall, Corey Coleman, Kevin White and Marqise Lee are value, I would have liked a guy like Kelvin Benjamin, Willie Snead, Alshon Jeffrey, Emmanuel Sanders, Desean Jackson or Tyrell Williams to have been a value buffer from WR2 to WR4.

2. What advice would you give to someone participating in an auction draft?

Don't get carried away or fall in love with any particular player. Set a market value for every player and be disciplined. If your aim is to get a stud at every position and fill the roster with cheap players, do not overpay for your studs. If you have set a value of $60 for David Johnson and he is at $62 drop out. For $60 you will be able to get 3 or 4 RB2s later on. If your aim is to target the players that are in round 2 or 3 of normal drafts and a player like eg Julio Jones is $10 under your budget estimate, bid on him. 

3. Give a few examples of tips, tricks, strategies or decisions that can improve your ability to have a successful auction. 

One of my favorite tips is to nominate your players carefully. This is your chance to get others in your league to go crazy with their cash. Eg if you know there are 4 guys who are head over heels for a player like Dalvin Cook, nominate him and hope for a bidding war that causes him to sell for way over your estimated budget. Your first 4 or 5 nominations should be guys you think will go for considerably more than you think they are worth. This eats into other peoples budget, allowing you to get value for players you like. In the middle stages consider nominating players that others have filled their position with or have overspent on. This limits your competition for certain players and gives you value to get a deeper roster. 

Chad Parsons - Team 4

Overall Strategy:

Pay up at RB to field a handful of stable second- and third-tier guys; TE-by-committee

Best Pick(s)

Jeremy Maclin ($5) & Mike Wallace ($5) – Chad allocated most (55%) of his salary to RB, so he needed more than anyone to land strong value at wideout. That he did by locking up both Maclin and Wallace for a criminal $10 combined. Yeesh. I have Maclin valued around there on his own. It’s hard to say which will be Joe Flacco’s top option, but it doesn’t really matter – the Ravens have thrown more passes over the last two years than any other team. Both project to threaten 70-75 receptions as the clear-cut foci of an ultra-voluminous passing game. Considering Chad’s top three receivers have some durability/consistency concerns, he paved nicely over any risk they carry by absolutely stealing Maclin and Wallace. He also added the Ravens’ No. 3 receiver, Breshad Perriman, as a $3 insurance policy.

Worst Pick(s)

DeMarco Murray ($36) – It’s hard to quibble with Chad’s draft, which was strategically focused on RBs and didn’t really feature any standout overpays. But I probably would’ve devoted a little more to my wideout budget by insisting less on the aging Murray. There are a handful of stronger, more consistent options than Kelvin Benjamin that Chad could’ve landed with just a few extra dollars on hand. DeAndre Hopkins, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs were all had within $6 of Benjamin; all feature similar floors and markedly stronger ceilings.

Evaluation

Chad is known for his RB-heavy tendencies, which really help to limit the fragility we often experience with our backs. It’s wise on his part to load up heavily, then pluck a handful of wideouts from the tightly-clustered WR2 ranks. And he kept his QB and TE spending minimal – while still rostering good quantity with notable upside. It’s hard to not to like what he put together here.

post-draft quesitons

1. What was your strategy going into the auction and how did that turn out? Share any specific ups and downs that you had throughout the auction. 

I typically go with stronger depth and a more balanced approach in auctions. However, with only 18 positional players and lower starting requirements, I boosted the top 2-3 spots in allocated funds in my auction plan. I had to pivot some during the auction as prices were higher than I expected early on - when I projected to get a top running back and potentially a top quarterback or tight end as part of my plan. Deciding not to go well beyond my budget, I scaled back to more of a balanced approach and typically quarterback-by-committee. I still paid plenty for two top running backs ($36 for DeMarco Murray, $28 for Isaiah Crowell) with the bidding aggressive for much longer into the draft than I expected. Plus, later I had to bow out on Jordy Nelson - my typical WR1 target - with soaring bids. Instead, I settled for a balanced top-3 receiver set, all in the $15-20 range, with Alshon Jeffery, Larry Fitzgerald, and Kelvin Benjamin.

2. What advice would you give to someone participating in an auction draft?

As mentioned in my strategy segment, preparing a plan and then keeping your eyes wide open during the early part of the auction for pivot moments are key attributes. Going 'all in' for players early is something I recommend folks avoid as half your roster can quickly turn into low-level $1 players and consistently losing small bidding 'wars' later in the auction. Build an auction list with your projected layout of QB1, QB2, RB1, etc. values next to it before the auction. Ensure it totals are $200 (or whatever the team budget). Use it as a roadmap to determine if you are over/under budget quickly as the auction is in the early stages. It is easy to over or under spend without a plan in an auction and lose before your team has even hit the field, more than a draft.

3. Give a few examples of tips, tricks, strategies or decisions that can improve your ability to have a successful auction. 

I side with the 'nominate players of low self-interest' most of the auction. Where I 'win' in auction is generally between say 20 players already nominated and 120 players off the board. To control the target players in this cross-section of the auction, extracting dollars from other owners early is key. Therefore, nominating big name players early is a natural sidecar approach. One caveat is waiting too long to get 'your guys' in the middle of the auction and being left with too much money compared to the remaining talent. In the past year or two, I have improved greatly in this inherent weakness area of the outlined strategy. This does not mean there is not potential values early on. However, I rarely have found value plays when bidding on the top, say, 5-10 players overall in a given auction.

Danny Tuccitto - Team 5

Overall Strategy:

Ultra-balanced in bidding, with a premium placed on WRs; cobble together a RB corps with upside plays

Best Pick(s)

Jamison Crowder ($10) – How Danny landed PPR darling Crowder for just $10 is mystifying. Here’s a guy with a 70-catch floor – and a 90-catch ceiling – who generates touchdowns on the upper level of slot specialists. Danny benefited mightily from Crowder falling to the latest segment of the auction, and few other teams still had the budget and/or roster space to push his price tag to market value. Danny had left himself in solid shape to make a run at the falling Crowder, and he struck gold. His WR-dominant approach, which was already in outstanding shape, got even sexier with this steal.

Worst Pick(s)

Dez Bryant ($34) – Bryant is always a strong upside play, and this wasn’t an objectively bad bid. But Danny spent nearly what the slam-dunk WR1s went for, despite Bryant’s relatively hefty risk factor. I think he would’ve been better served buying Doug Baldwin, T.Y. Hilton, or Brandin Cooks for markedly less and rerouting those funds to his RB stable. He could’ve turned two of his dollar-baby RBs into a late-auction steal like Terrance West, Theo Riddick, or Duke Johnson.

Evaluation

Danny clearly wanted to secure all the volume he could manage – and he made quite a run at it. With Melvin Gordon anchoring his RB and three true 90-reception threats at wideout, he boasts a rock-solid floor with plenty of touchdown upside to boot. That’s how you diversify upside. I do feel his RB stable was left pretty barren, but he scooped enough bodies to piece together a suitable two-man crew every week.

post-draft questions

1. What was your strategy going into the auction and how did that turn out? Share any specific ups and downs that you had throughout the auction. 

My strategy was based on what happened early on in our staff auction mock three weeks ago. Namely, the best players were nominated early and went for far more than the value I had assigned to them. Part of this was because I didn't anticipated RB1 going for $59 one year after RB1 went for $40 in the same mock. But the other, far more structural reason why this happened was because, in the early going, everyone has most (if not all) of their salary cap left. (This "spend it if you got it" dynamic may or may not manifest itself in day-to-day life in the real world, but I digress.) Therefore, I decided to focus on acquiring second-tier players as my No. 1 at each position, third-tier players as my No. 2 at each position, and so on, thereby leaving me more salary cap to outbid others -- primarily Matt -- for breakout players further down my depth chart.

I didn't pull this strategy off perfectly, as I seem to have slightly overpaid for Melvin Gordon at RB1, Jordy Nelson at WR1, and Dez Bryant at WR2. That said, by paying less for the top of my depth chart, I was indeed able to acquire a whole host of breakout players for cheaper than they should have gone. For instance, I got Hunter Henry for $11, which was $2 below what he went for in our prior mock, as well as getting Jesse James for $1 less this time around. This was especially helpful given the tight end premium scoring system. I also got Jamison Crowder for $10, whereas he went for $18 previously.

In terms of ups and downs during the draft, this has to be where I mention my seven-round grudge match with the aforementioned Matt Harmon:

1. Michael Thomas -- He bid $34, I bid $35, he bid $36, I bid $37, he bid $38, I bid $39, then he won at $40.
2. Dez Bryant -- I bid $32, he bid $33, then I won at $34.
3. Stefon Diggs -- I bid $20, he bid $21, I bid $22, he bid $23, then I won at $24.
4. Spencer Ware -- I bid $3, he bid $7, I bid $9, he bid $10 and then bowed out. I ended up winning at $14.
5. Cameron Meredith -- He bid $7, I bid $8, he bid $9, then I won at $10.
6. Kirk Cousins -- He bid $4, I bid $5, then he won at $6.
7. Nelson Agholor -- I nominated Agholor for $1 and won because Matt couldn't bid $2.

Devin Knotts - Team 6

Overall Strategy:

Cobble together a WR stable with dollar babies; spend up for studs at QB and TE; chase handcuff RBs

Best Pick(s)

Travis Kelce ($29) & Willie Snead ($11) – Devin’s goal was to spend highly at QB and secure two premium RBs, meaning he’d need to hit hard at WR and TE (considering the format). I love that he was able to supplement a bare-bones WR group with Snead for just $11 – to me, he’s a superior option than at least 5-6 guys that cost more. As the No. 2 in a bonkers offense, his floor is stable and his ceiling is very high; his 2016 indicators suggest a boost in touchdown potential. Snead makes for a dynamite WR2 in any format. But the rock star of this draft was Kelce. In the FPC format, Kelce arguably carries stronger value than Rob Gronkowski – who went for 38% more. Kelce doesn’t miss games, and his volume range of 85-90 receptions goes an exceptionally long way when they’re weighted 1.5x. He looks like a lock to post some degree WR1 value while filling a less plentiful position, and Devin didn’t have to pay Dez Bryant or Amari Cooper prices. It could be argued that, in the $25-40 range, there’s simply no better combination of floor and ceiling.

Worst Pick(s)

Derek Carr ($6) – I’m no fan of Carr as a fantasy target this year. Devin already boasted a clear-cut top-three QB and didn’t need to spend more than $1-3 on a backup; Joe Flacco or Carson Palmer would’ve done just fine here. That would’ve freed Devin to upgrade one of his $1 receivers; say, from Andre Holmes to Kenny Britt or Rishard Matthews. Besides, I don’t see Carr as a particularly superior option to those $1-3 passers. He doesn’t produce rushing numbers, and he doesn’t project to the kind of yardage or touchdown upside that prices him where he is.

Evaluation

Devin went into this auction with a clear plan, and he wasn’t deterred. He ultimately walked out with two rock-solid RB1s, two dynamic weekly starters at WR, and elite peripheral options at QB and TE. You can quibble with his depth choices all you want, but he threw enough quantity at the wall to feel confident he’ll boast strong injury/bye fill-ins. This is a top-heavy roster, but a smart and well-constructed one.

post-draft questions

1. What was your strategy going into the auction and how did that turn out? Share any specific ups and downs that you had throughout the auction. 
My strategy was similar to most of my auctions and go into it without a solid game plan with the exception of getting a top end tight end in the FPC format. What I typically do in most auctions is establish where the values are and bid on the inefficient players rather than the actual names of the player to attempt to maximize my points per dollar. In this draft, I quickly realized that there was an inefficiency early with some of the top players in Gurley, McCoy and A.J. Green all around $40. The one thing I probably should not have done was go big at the quarterback position as while Brees at $15 was a tremendous bargain it left me with very little in terms of depth in this league which could end up costing me down the road. 

What advice would you give to someone participating in an auction draft?
I would say to go in the opposite direction of where your opponents are going. An auction draft is a perfect time to be contrarian and if everyone is going stars and scrubs, then there will be an inefficiency for the balanced lineups. Know your league, understand the dynamics of your draft and pay attention to what is going on. Preparation is key to know what you believe players should be going for and if there is an inefficiency then take advantage of it. 

3. Give a few examples of tips, tricks, strategies or decisions that can improve your ability to have a successful auction. 

• Here are a few tips that have worked for a lot of different people. A lot of people tier players and say that they have to get one player from each tier to fill their roster so when the tier is running out they know that they need to start bidding on that player to ensure that they get someone in that tier. 
• Another tip is to build out a range as far as what you would be willing to go up to if you're paying for a player. Everyone would love to have David Johnson on their team, but the reality is that only one team gets him and there typically is one team that is willing to pay whatever it takes to get him, so setting a stopping point for yourself can pay big dividends. 
• The final tip that I have is to save some money towards the end so you get your choice of players. I was stuck with $1 as my maximum bid pretty early in the draft so you are really stuck with what is given to you at that point as it becomes somewhat luck that you have to nominate a player and hope no one else bids on that player in order to get him. If you save a few dollars throughout the draft the quality of your bench can be significantly improved with $2-$5 players instead of the $1 players. 

Jeff Haseley - Team 7

Overall Strategy:

Load up majorly at WR to win the flex; fill in RB depth with cheap, rotational PPR warriors

Best Pick(s)

James White ($5), Darren Sproles ($1), & Chris Thompson ($1) – This was a masterstroke by Jeff, who clearly recognizes the fantasy value of passing-down backs. To land these three PPR specialists for a combined $7 is almost criminal; Jeff used that paltry sum to secure three guys with locked-in offensive roles. It wouldn’t be a bit surprising to see them each challenge 60 receptions while their NFL teammates bobble and trade-off rushing opportunity. I love White’s outlook in a breakneck offense, but Sproles is the true steal here. He’s not only the most stable name in the Eagles’ backfield; he also benefits from runoff rushing volume as the team struggles to piece together a running game. Think of him as the arbitrage Danny Woodhead – only he came a whopping $16 cheaper. For Jeff, that discount alone proved the difference between rostering the sizeable upside of Terrelle Pryor and taking a $1 flier in the hopes of landing sporadic WR3 production.

Worst Pick(s)

Julian Edelman ($14) – This one could easily pan out, of course, as Edelman is a trusted Tom Brady target with three 90-catch seasons on his resume. But my projections absolutely hate him this year. For one, he’ll be sharing opportunity with both Rob Gronkowski and Brandin Cooks, the Patriots’ best wideout in years and a true wild card. Cooks is so talented and versatile it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him eat majorly into Edelman’s stranglehold. And Edelman never produces the yardage or touchdown rates to provide much upside. Even in a best-case scenario, with both Gronkowski and Cooks on the field, I can’t see Edelman topping a line around 75 catches, 800 yards, and 4-5 touchdowns. He’ll need an injury to one of them to produce anything more.

Evaluation

I love Jeff’s objective – to win the flex spot week after week on the backs of high-impact WRs. I think he allocated his money wisely, focusing on WR upside and paying down for high-volume RBs. With a stout TE duo and a generally reliable QB1 in the fold, his lineup looks simultaneously balanced and dynamic, which is a relatively rare combination. This looks like one of the better-constructed rosters, all told.

post-draft questions

1. What was your strategy going into the auction and how did that turn out? Share any specific ups and downs that you had throughout the auction. 

I have tried a few different strategies in auction drafts, but I find I do better when I use I balanced approach. By balanced, I tend to spend big at running back and wide receiver (close to 80%) and the remaining 20% on quarterback, tight end, defense and kicker. My tight end percentage could sneak up higher if it's a FPC league, like this one, or a league that rewards more for tight ends. 

Generally, my spend is within these guidelines
QB: 6% ($12)
RB: 40% ($80)
WR: 40% ($80)
TE: 13% ($26)
K & Def: 1% ($2)

Here's how I spent my money in this auction
QB: 4.5% ($9)
RB: 37.5% ($75)
WR: 46.5% ($93)
TE: 10% ($20)
K & Def: 1.5% ($3)

I spent $18 more at wide receiver than running back and I can pinpoint exactly when the bottom fell out of my strategy. A little over the halfway point of the auction I had accumulated, among others, five receivers with only three running backs. I needed to solidify my fourth running back, not my sixth wide receiver, especially with my money dwindling down. It was my turn to nominate a player and I selected Emmanuel Sanders. He was the top wide receiver left on the board and other wide receivers just before him went for $13 (DeVante Parker), Golden Tate ($12), Willie Snead ($11) and Cameron Meredith ($10). I nominated Emmanuel Sanders for $13 thinking someone would at least bid $14 and I'd be in the clear, plus I would force more money out, so I could use my money to spend on a running back. Great strategy - however nobody upped the bid on Sanders and I wound up winning the bid, giving me six wide receivers (all medium priced) with only three running backs and $5 max that I could spend on any player with six players left to fill out my roster. I wound up spending $5 on James White as my RB4 and then Sproles/Pumphrey Philadelphia combo at $1 each with Chris Thompson for $1 as well. It wasn't my plan, but I salvaged a critical mistake with strong PPR backs on the cheap. Had I saved my money for a running back, I could've potentially controlled the board and had my pick of Terrance West, James White and Rex Burkhead with one or two more wide receivers. I'm pleased with my outcome, but it would've been a lot sweeter had I not made that mistake of calling up Sanders for too much that nobody increased the bid. Update: In hindsight with the Julian Edelman injury, now I'm glad that I did spend that extra money on Sanders. That now gives me DeAndre Hopkins, Sammy Watkins, Terrelle Pryor, Emmanuel Sanders, Corey Davis and Cole Beasley at wide receiver. I can definitely build off of that. 

2. What advice would you give to someone participating in an auction draft?

Go with your own strategy. There's several ways to have a successful auction. I like the "go big on running backs and wide receivers" strategy, but that may not meet your needs. Price values are different across many hosting sites, but for $200 budget and using MFL, I generally like to stay under $35 for any one player and I usually only have one player over $30 on my roster. I've been known to keep that number below $30, but it depends on how high players are going. 

I suggest you keep track of your percentage of spend per position. Don't find yourself going overboard on one position and neglecting another key position, especially if you want a balanced roster. 

Try not to be one of the last two or three teams to need a starting quarterback. That way you won't get into a bidding war for a quarterback that should go for much less. The reason for the battle is because there's probably more than one team needs a starting quarterback and the pickings are getting slim. Don't be in a two person battle for the last big name quarterback, because you will always lose either by spending more than you should have or missing out on the last QB1 on the board. If there's two big name quarterbacks left, be sure you win the bid on the first of the two, otherwise you'll be in that unwanted position I mentioned above. 

3. Give a few examples of tips, tricks, strategies or decisions that can improve your ability to have a successful auction.

Grab your kicker and defense for $1 and do it fairly early in the auction, but wait until a few others from those positions go so you don't surprise the group with a kicker who might be bid on above your $1. The best way to ensure you get a kicker and defense for $1 is to nominate a good, but not great kicker/defense. Someone like Mason Crosby, Dan Bailey, Carolina defense, Minnesota defense, New England defense. Most people will stay away and you can get your pick for $1.

Try to keep pace with the group in terms of money spent and players rostered. Don't be left needing to fill 10 slots on your roster and your money is among the lowest in the group. The goal (at least this is mine) is to craft a team throughout the auction and try to have more if not equal money than the others with 4-5 slots left to fill. If you fill your roster with quality, value-rich players and you have money left to spend on your bench slots above the others, you're going to be pleased with the results. Don't have too much money at the end that you overspend for a player or players that you didn't need to. It's a tight system to master, but when you do it effectively, you can dominate the auction. 

Recognize the value of a player and strike. If you notice a good WR2 or WR3 is going for less than expected and there's low interest from the group, pounce on that. When there's a battle of $1 here and $1 more there on a particular player I'm interested in, I will look to shock the group with a bid that is $6 or $7 more than the last bid (as long as my bid is within the range of where the price should be for that player). Sometimes a shock bid is enough to get people to think - "I'll wait for another player and strike later." leaving you with the player you want at a reasonable price.  

Jeff Tefertiller - Team 8

Overall Strategy:

Generally balanced, focused upon monstrous potential at both RB and WR

Best Pick(s)

Mike Evans ($37) – Talk about value. Julio Jones and all of his injury/touchdown concerns drew $49, yet Jeff managed to land Evans, a comparable target in both volume and upside, for $12 less. Like Jones, Evans boasts an outlook in the neighborhood of 90 receptions, but doubles as a touchdown machine. I’m not overly worried that Evans will lose opportunity to DeSean Jackson – but I’m almost certain Jones’ Falcons will regress markedly on offense. And Evans doesn’t miss games, while Jones is a near-fixture on the Falcons’ injury report. It’s always a major boon to anchor your auction roster with a top-tier option that comes 20% cheaper than his peers.

Worst Pick(s)

Carlos Hyde ($23) – Hyde has been absolutely snakebitten by injuries, missing 14 of his first 42 NFL games, and finds himself in a moderately crowded backfield entering 2017. And while he’s solidly talented, it’s hard to see where the upside that justifies this cost could come from. Barring a trade, he’ll be mired in a bottom-of-the-barrel offense, one that won’t keep defenses out of the box and won’t generate much touchdown opportunity. To return on Jeff’s investment, Hyde will have to run like a man possessed and stay healthy – both very plausible, of course, but tall orders for a $23 investment. Lamar Miller and Ty Montgomery came cheaper, and other question marks with upside (like Tevin Coleman) were significantly less expensive. In my eyes, Hyde fits best toward the bottom of that large group.

Evaluation

Jeff clearly put the focus on ceiling here, which is always refreshing to see. I do feel he overpaid for a few of those pieces, though. Hyde and Keenan Allen are priced near their ceilings despite massive injury risk, and strict backup Derrick Henry cost Jeff more than proven starters Spencer Ware and Mark Ingram. He did, however, extract solid value from Martavis Bryant – he’s one of the biggest risks in fantasy football, and Jeff pulled at for a perfectly acceptable $16 price tag. All in all, this is a boom-or-bust roster that carries plenty of risk, but also gobs of league-winning potential.

post-draft questions

1. What was your strategy going into the auction and how did that turn out? Share any specific ups and downs that affected your strategy. 
 My goal was to load up on receivers, especially those in the Top 15, take second- or third-tier running backs, and wait on quarterback and tight end.  I think it worked out well.  I paid a dollar or two too much for my early guys, Hyde and Allen, but they were in the value range I had for each.  Similar players went for cheaper later on.  While I was waiting on quarterback, Winston was going cheaply so I acquired him at a great price.  He went for much less than guys in his tier and about the same as the lower level quarterbacks.  Ebron was the last tight end in his tier so I made sure to get him at $10 or under. 

2. What advice would you give to someone participating in an auction draft?
First realize that - just like how every draft is different - every auction is different.  The same rules and league with different owners will produce different results so be flexible.  If your auction is over-valuing the high-end receivers, shift to running back and the lesser receivers.  With the finite amount of money each owner has at their disposal, when the auction is priced too high in one area, it will be too cheap in another.  Find the bargains.

3. Give a few examples of tips, tricks, strategies or decisions that can improve your ability to have a successful auction.  
Auctions are all about values.  Many people use the Draft Dominator for auction values.  Some translate ADP into auction values.  The main thing is to understand relative values between players and positions.  The easiest way for me to do this is to assign values to tiers or buckets of players.  This way, I want to find the cheapest in player or players in a group that will produce similar results.  

One tip I will give that I am reminded of every time I do an auction is to be familiar with the league auction software.  Most are glitchy.  I would advise doing a few mocks on the league software before your league auction just to get a feel for roster-building, the software, and tempo of the auction.

Also, the owners who are able to hold out and not spend early in the auction are usually able to dominate the auction when the prices are too cheap.  The owners who spend early usually have 2-3 top players and a bunch of low-level players while the owners who do not spend early are able to build a balanced, deep team. 

Matt Harmon - Team 9

Overall Strategy:

Balanced and all-in on Dalvin Cook

Best Pick(s)

Shane Vereen ($1) – Matt’s bidding was generally sound, so Vereen stands out as the most glaring chunk of value. In virtually every draft/auction I see, Vereen is prioritized below some awfully shaky names. He doesn’t have a ton of relative ceiling – he’s unlikely to surpass 75 rushes or so, and his touchdown outlook isn’t good. But at $1, he’s literally nothing but upside. Assuming his recovery is full and he notches 16 games, he’ll likely top 500 snaps, which could very easily lead the Giants’ backfield. And considering he has their passing-down work locked up securely (Paul Perkins has surprisingly received virtually no attention there), Vereen has real potential to log 60 receptions. That kind of opportunity outlook is worth far more than $1. Matt’s RB corps is long on potential, but short on confident production, and Vereen’s dirt-cheap presence goes a long way toward adding some.

Worst Pick(s)

Dalvin Cook ($29) – I know it’s blasphemy to rag on Cook while he’s in the midst of this massive August swoon. And I really do like his long-term outlook. But I feel Matt overpaid a bit – probably the only hiccup on this ultra-sturdy roster. Cook looks great, but there’s no guarantee he’ll command the lion’s share of backfield work once the games start to matter. The Vikings have two other capable backs, and both are NFL-experienced. Besides, behind this rag-tag offensive line, not even a bell cow back carries particularly impressive upside. Last year, Vikings backs struggled mightily to produce long, dynamic runs or touchdowns; Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata combined to generate just two RB1 weeks. Cook is better than both, but the team’s offensive outlook hasn’t improved. This $29 purchase – far pricier than tier-mates Lamar Miller and Joe Mixon – is a dice-roll that Cook is a situation-proof, world-class talent from Day 1. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was, but I wouldn’t pay this much to find out.

Evaluation

Again, this is a hard roster to poke holes in. Matt kept things tight and balanced, boasting both consistency and upside across every position. He’s banking heavily on Cook, and while I probably wouldn’t invest the same amount, I certainly get the spirit and agree with the direction.

post-draft questions

1. What was your strategy going into the auction and how did that turn out? Share any specific ups and downs that you had throughout the auction. 

Scott Biscoff - Team 10

Overall Strategy:

Quantity at RB, quality at WR

Best Pick(s)

Theo Riddick ($6) & Alvin Kamara ($3) – Again, we see an auctioner shrewdly compiling mid- and low-cost receiving backs as depth. Guys like Riddick come cheaper than flashier RBs in the tier despite boasting more role security; Riddick is a sneaky RB2 play with a strong floor. And Kamara, who’s squarely in the driver’s seat for the Saints’ primary receiving-back role, just oozes upside to go with that expected usage. This, folks, is how you build depth on the inexpensive.

Worst Pick(s)

Allen Robinson ($20) – Knock Blake Bortles all you want; it’s chic and overwhelmingly deserved. But over his Jaguars career, Chad Henne has been worse in virtually every major passing measure, and his 3.0% touchdown rate is downright depressing. His insertion into the team’s QB plans likely signals (a) a moderate decline in passing efficiency and (b) a further shift toward the run. Robinson has always been a volatile producer anyway; I’m no longer on board with paying DeAndre Hopkins prices for him

Evaluation

Scott’s roster is constructed the way I tend to do it, so of course, I love it. It’s anchored by a handful of strong WR plays and affordable stabs at high-floor, solid-ceiling RBs. Through it all, Scott was able to secure a top-two QB and a high-volume receiving TE that transcends its tier in the FPC format.

post-draft questions

1.    What was your strategy going into the auction and how did that turn out? Share any specific ups and downs that affected your strategy. 

Sigmund Bloom - Team 11

Overall Strategy:

True studs-and-duds, with lots of RB quantity thrown at the wall; pay down at QB

Best Pick(s)

Tyrell Williams ($9) – If fellow auctioners are going to let Sigmund make scoops like this, he’s going to make them pay. Williams’ solid WR3/4 floor was sealed when rookie Mike Williams’ back injury flared up in July, and his ceiling is almost incalculable. Target hog Keenan Allen returns, but is one of the league’s most snakebitten players and has yet to record a full NFL season. Besides, Allen’s game lies underneath, and Williams proved himself a thoroughly dynamic big-play threat in his breakout 2016. His 19 receptions of 20+ yards checked in 7th in the league, and his 10.1% rate carried a lot of fantasy teams down the stretch. If Allen goes down, Williams will revert to relatively clear-cut No. 1 status. And if Allen stays healthy, Williams looks set to offer solid volume with as much splash outlook as just about any No. 2 in football.

Worst Pick(s)

Marshawn Lynch ($22) – I like that Sigmund targeted this RB tier with his $22, but this is a massive leap of faith in Lynch. Backs entering their 10th seasons simply don’t project well; dating back to 2000, only 2 have registered more than 200 touches. And Lynch – troublesome back and all – is entering a young, deep backfield, and there’s already plenty of chatter about the Raiders limiting his workload. This bid could pan out, particularly if Lynch follows Latavius Murray’s 2016 lead and pumps in a hefty chunk of short touchdown runs. But for $22, Sigmund could have wrapped up a stronger floor/ceiling blend in Lamar Miller or Ty Montgomery.

Evaluation

Sigmund clearly set out to trust a small handful of studs and leave the rest to chance, which is a perfectly acceptable auction tactic. He loaded up on RB quantity – particularly upside plays fighting for air in committees – and a handful of explosive reserve receivers with potential for enormous weeks. He was able to do so by stabbing at gobs of his favorite dollar babies, and by keeping his QB spending to a bare minimum (while still coming away with two solid options). This is how studs-and-duds happens.

post-draft questions

1. What was your strategy going into the auction and how did that turn out? Share any specific ups and downs that you had throughout the auction. 

I was going to be aggressive based on the first few players. In my auction valuation, first-round picks should be worth 25-30% and it appeared that the auction was undervaluing first-rounders right away. I decided to go studs and duds and get one of my Top 6 backs (Ajayi) #1 TE - extra important in 1.5 PPR TE format (Gronk) and #2 wide receiver (Julio) for the bulk of my budget. I was disappointed when some of the other premium tight ends went for too cheap later and I expected to do a little better at quarterback than Carson Palmer, but I ended up with 5 of my top 20 players which i think can be enough to contend in a league like this.

2. What advice would you give to someone participating in an auction draft?

Have projected values, but more importantly have clarity for what YOUR values are - ie who you value more than the pack and who you value less. If you focus on only getting players at a discount, you aren't getting "your guys". just like reaches become values and values become reaches early in the season, overpaying in an auction becomes a steal and steals become wasted money. Don't be afraid to overpay and don't become too committed to "values" just like you shouldn't be too driven by ADP in a snake draft.

3. Give a few examples of tips, tricks, strategies or decisions that can improve your ability to have a successful auction. 

The most important thing is to read the room early - are they overpaying for early studs or are they being too shy and leaving money on the sidelines? The value of money in the middle of the auction is dictated by how loose or tight everyone is at the beginning. Waiting for enough information to be certain about this factor in an auction can mean that you're too late to take advantage of it, so you have to be willing to project based on a limited number of players.

Whether to throw out players you want or players you don't want early in the auction is also subject to the loose/tight distinction. In a tight auction, get the marquee players you want out there early and control the bidding. In a loose auction, let someone pay for someone you don't want anyway so your dollars will go farther when one of your guys comes up later.

Dan Hindery - Team 12

Overall Strategy:

Studs-and-duds, anchored by LeVeon Bell and supplemented with powerful QB play and high-upside flex options

Best Pick(s)

Donte Moncrief ($6) & Rex Burkhead ($2) – I may never give up the Moncrief ghost. He boasts just about every physical tool you’d want – he’s stoutly-sized and entered the league in 2014 as arguably the most measurably explosive receiver in a decade. And he’s established himself as a touchdown machine, scoring 13 times on 94 catches over his last 25 games. In a perfect world, i.e. one with a healthy Andrew Luck and the dynamic Colts offense that would ensue, Moncrief would easily command $10-12. This massive discount comes partly from his underwhelming 2015-16 play, but also from Luck’s uncertainty to start the season. Poor quarterbacking could torpedo him, Moncrief will probably be up-and-down regardless of his passer, but there’s simply no $6 WR in this auction that can even sniff his upside. Burkhead is an even better value; with Mike Gillislee sidelined for most of camp and James White utilized strictly as a receiver, Burkhead projects as the Patriots’ closest thing to a featured back. He’s been utilized heavily – and diversely – throughout camp and the preseason, and he looks poised to offer monstrous cost-adjusted upside in this offense. His volume and touchdown totals swell just by virtue of being a Patriot. His value will creep up steadily as the season approaches, and Dan landed him for absolute peanuts.

Worst Pick(s)

Paul Perkins ($7) – This is nitpicky, but I no longer see Perkins as a $7 option. He’s looked wholly unimpressive throughout the offseason, and he’ll split time anyway in a backfield that’s failed to produce a RB2 in years. There’s just not much all-purpose upside for Perkins with Shane Vereen around, and very little touchdown opportunity in a run game that’s produced just 11 RB touchdowns over the past 2 years. Again, this is a very small quibble over a beautifully-constructed roster. But Perkins’ arrow is pointing downward, and I feel that $7 could’ve been spent much better on a battery of high-floor PPR studs that actually came cheaper. I love Dan’s roster, but I’d love it even more if he could replace Perkins and his WR3 (DeSean Jackson) with, say, Theo Riddick and Willie Snead.

Evaluation

Dan pulled an astounding amount of value in the small-bills range. To land Moncrief, Burkhead, Randall Cobb, and two promising rookie handcuffs for a combined $18 was a huge boon to Dan’s roster. Getting something for little is paramount to fantasy selection, of course, and Dan is in great position to extract big-time producers for $6 or less.

post-dradft questions

1. What was your strategy going into the auction and how did that turn out? Share any specific ups and downs that you had throughout the auction. 

1. Prior to the draft, make a spreadsheet with average auction prices and tweak it a little bit to what you think players are likely to go for in your league. Using the “Average Cost” column from David Dodds’ article is a great way to start. Or you can use the average prices from ESPN.
2. As the auction progresses, make sure you are comparing the actual prices to what you expected the prices to look like. If almost every player is more expensive than expected, that is a strong clue that you should go slow and wait for some value later. For example, in this draft, the prices were high across the board early, so I waited and saved money for late in the draft where I think I was able to grab a lot of solid players at lower prices. In other drafts, everyone will be hesitant to pay market price early and you can lock in a lot of value by coming out aggressive if you see guys consistenly going for cheaper than expected.
3. When you make your original spreadsheet, think about what you want your final roster to look and make a small box with each position (QB1, QB2, RB1, RB2, etc.) and a target price and make sure it adds up to $200. As your auction progresses and you start winning players, put the actual dollar value in and then adjust elsewhere to make sure at all times it adds up to $200. So for example, I came into the auction with $14 budgeted for my QB1 (hoping for Tom Brady). When Brady was more expensive, I cut my projected cost for QB1 to $7 and then spread $7 around to my budget at different positions (including QB2). This process is really helpful to make sure you don’t get too aggressive early and leave yourself with too little money to fill out your roster the way you want to. It also is a great way to adjust your plan on the fly during the auction if you spend more on a position than you were planning.

auction by highest winning bid

highest winning bid by position

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com

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