Footballguys Staff Mock Draft 13, 12-team FPC format, Best Ball

I started the draft with a big advantage by lucking into the top pick. I knew I would go David Johnson and that his fantastic weekly floor would lock up one of my two RB slots every week, which would allow me to ignore running back for a while. Johnson allows you to load up at other positions while employing an RB2-by committee approach with later round picks. 

Things mostly went as planned. I came in targeting a pair of WR1s at the 2/3 turn and landed Dez Bryant and Brandin Cooks. I knew I wanted to load up with a lot early receivers and grabbed six guys with realistic 1,000+ yard potential in the first 11 rounds. I was planning on grabbing my TE1 at the 4/5 turn because I knew the tight end run would start soon after and was happy with Tyler Eifert at 5.01. 

My original plan was to grab two top-10 quarterbacks at the 8/9 turn. But the slide of Aaron Rodgers forced a change in that plan. While the top quarterbacks are worth slightly less in best ball, Rodgers and Tom Brady are still steals if they fall into the 5th round. When Rodgers was still available at the 4/5 turn, I jumped at the opportunity. And when Andrew Luck fell to the 8/9 turn, I happily scooped him up as well. The Rodgers/Luck combination makes me the favorite to lead this league in QB scoring at the end of the year and the investment in terms of draft picks wasn’t prohibitive. 

Grabbing a running back who is part of a committee is rough in season-long leagues. You never know which weeks to start him and you never feel great when he’s in your lineup because he isn’t guaranteed a heavy workload each week.

The RBBC backs are much more attractive in best ball leagues because you don’t have to sweat the poor weeks and can take advantage of the strong weeks. Chris Thompson (drafted at 16.12) is a great example. He averaged just 10.4 PPG last season, which made him a mediocre option to have in a starting lineup each week (RB25 overall). But he had four weeks in which he scored 13 or more points and nine weeks where he scored 10+. I drafted five of these committee backs in the 10th-16th round range and should be able to take advantage of the four or five strong scoring weeks each should produce because the top scores are automatically counted each week. 

I’ve been scooping up DeVante Parker in the 6th-8th round of almost every draft the last few weeks. He’s a talented receiver who was one of the first receivers off the board in the 2015 draft. He was plagued by injuries and inconsistency his first two years. But he looks like a prime third-year breakout candidate. He’s been drawing rave reviews throughout training camp and looked to have a great connection with Jay Cutler in their first preseason action. Cutler called him “a faster Alshon (Jeffery).” Cutler helped Jeffery emerge as a big-time fantasy receiver when healthy and could do the same for Parker. 

Austin Seferian-Jenkins is another player whom I’m willing to take a couple rounds ahead of ADP (especially in deeper TE-premium leagues like FPC). Seferian-Jenkins has always been supremely talented but his issues with alcohol kept him from fulfilling his massive potential. Over the offseason, Seferian-Jenkins quit drinking and lost 33 pounds. He has been one of the few bright spots in training camp for the Jets. With the worst wide receiver corps in the league, it has been speculated that Seferian-Jenkins could emerge as the top target in the offense.

Overall Strategy

Wide Receiver Heavy

Best Pick(s)
Eric Ebron, 7.02, TE12.
In the 1.5 point per reception league, Eric Ebron makes a ton of sense and is a great value for Ryan’s team assuming that Ebron can stay healthy as he fell in the draft due to preseason injuries. Ebron is entering his third season and has the upside if he can stay healthy to be a top six tight end which for Ryan to get him this late is a nice high risk high reward pick. He complimented Ebron with a very safe tight end in Charles Clay
which also was a great pick.

Worst Pick(s)
Tyrell Williams 6.11, WR 33.
There is a lot to like about Tyrell Williams this year, but this pick was buying into the hype too much as Ryan took Tyrell significantly above his ADP to ensure that he got him. With other players still available taking Williams as his fifth wide receiver in six rounds is an aggressive strategy that ended up hurting Ryan as he could have had a better second running back or starting tight end.

Evaluation
Ryan went with a wide receiver heavy approach after his first round pick which could pay dividends at the flex position every week especially in a Best Ball format with two flex positions. Outside of Le’Veon Bell, Ryan is going to be reliant on a running back by committee each week for his second running back spot which could work if Samaje Perine gains a larger role in the Redskins offense and Mike Gillislee/Shane Vereen have a few strong weeks throughout the season. Wide receivers often are more volatile than running backs but they have a higher ceiling so this team is intriguing if the receivers can perform on a week to week basis.

post-draft questions

1. What was your strategy going into this 28-round FPC Best Ball league? Did it turn out like you planned?
With the good fortune of having a top-two pick, the post-David Johnson/LeVeon Bell (I ended up with Bell) plan was to hoard wide receivers. Being a PPR league, they carry more value than running backs. And starting two of each with two additional flex spots allows for a starting lineup of as many as four wide receivers.

So my goal was to populate my best ball lineup in a way that I'd "start" four receivers in most weeks. The strategy focused on predictability. Early-round players are more predictable than late-rounders, and receptions are more predictable than touchdowns. So the focus early on was to hoard as many receptions as possible. After Bell, Amari Cooper, Demaryius Thomas, Terrelle Pryor, and Stefon Diggs all profile as 130+ target players. 

In the late rounds, I went after touchdowns and boom/bust players a little more. I also embraced some volatility by pairing J.J. Nelson with Carson Palmer and also not handcuffing any of my own running backs but rather others instead. Breshad Perriman is another boom/bust player.

I discounted tight ends a bit despite their 1.5 points-per-reception scoring because I felt I could get cheap receptions later in the draft at that position (and because I felt that with my wide receiver depth and Bell at the top, that I wouldn't end up flexing tight ends often anyway). Eric Ebron and Charles Clay project as players with heavy target volume, fulfilling the "cheap receptions" strategy.

At quarterback, with only one starter, I was fine waiting (as I typically do in any format). Matt Ryan should regress big time this year, but in Round 9, he felt like good value. Carson Palmer's early season schedule should allow for some big days too.

2. What players are more suited for best ball leagues than in-season management leagues? Explain why you feel this way.
Many responses here will likely focus on boom/bust players, but I like "band-aids" in best ball, especially ones whose big weeks are hard to predict. Pass-catching running backs tend to fall into this category, which is why I think I'll get more starts out of Round 14 pick Shane Vereen than many others will get from players selected in that same neighborhood. Prior to an injury-marred 2016 season, Vereen led the Giants backfield in snaps in 2015. The Giants are a solid bet to lead the NFL in pass attempts this season as well. 

3. What players are you comfortable selecting at or ahead of current ADP? Explain why people should be dialed-in to these players in their upcoming drafts? 
Here's a starting lineup of undervalued players so we hit each position: Andy Dalton; Ty Montgomery, Joe Mixon, and Danny Woodhead; Keenan Allen, Pierre Garcon, and Jeremy Maclin; Coby Fleener.

For our "bench," here are some deep sleepers worth grabbing a round or two ahead of current market price: DeShone Kizer, Shane Vereen, Ted Ginn, J.J. Nelson, Charles Clay.

Overall Strategy

Running Back Heavy

Best Pick(s)
Doug Baldwin 3.03, WR13.
After the running back, running back start John followed up his pick with taking one of the more consistent wide receivers at this draft slot. Baldwin should fit nicely as John’s number one receiver having both yardage and touchdown upside. John had to nail this as taking a receiver with a high bust potential would have made this situation volatile, but having Baldwin is a terrific pick.

Worst Pick(s)
Melvin Gordon 1.03 RB3
Melvin Gordon has a lot to like this year, but to take him third overall is just too early in this format. Gordon has missed time due to knee injuries in each of the last two seasons, and when he is playing he should have upside but to pass over the consistency of Antonio Brown is just a reach for a running back who only had 3.9 yards per carry last season.

Evaluation
John threw ADP out the window and was committed to a running back running back start in this draft by taking both Melvin Gordon and Leonard Fournette in the first two rounds but was able to make up for it by taking three solid wide receivers in rounds 3-5 balancing this team out nicely. John is going to need those recievers to come through for him as he only took three in the first ten picks, so he has one of the shallowest wide receiving group in the league but a very strong running back committee which he will need to fill the flex positions more weeks than not.

post-draft questions

1. What was your strategy going in to this 28-round FPC Best Ball league? Did it turn out like you planned?

Running backs are less plentiful and generally offer the most stability. In this super flex format where up to four can be in your lineup, my plan was to hit the position hard out of the gate then load up on quantity at receiver later. My real hope was to grab Gordon at 1.03 and snag Elliot in the second. That worked for me in an earlier draft from the three hole but was not to be in this one. Fournette was my consolation prize in round two. By round three it was obvious several others had the same idea. Flexibility is vital to drafting so I decided to shift gears. Instead of a third or fourth back I decided to make up some lost ground at receiver for three rounds. 

Hunter Henry is a guy I have targeted all summer and with tight ends getting an extra half point per reception I grabbed him before getting back to the RB position. C.J. Anderson in round seven seemed like a steal and Rob Kelly in 8 could serve me well. Legarrette Blount is a great best ball pick that I was surprised to get so late. The weeks he puts up a stinker I get someone else in the lineup. 

Did it turn out as I planned? Not really but then it rarely does when drafting against these sharks. All in all I am happy with the team I picked though. 

2. What players are more suited for best ball leagues than in-season management leagues? Explain why you feel this way.

In early rounds there is not much difference between managed and best ball. Everyone is going after the players we expect to produce every game. It's when the studs are gone that the strategy shifts a little. It's a PPR league so you can go for guys that are sure to get a fair number of opportunities and pretty much assure yourself of at least a few points; or you can fill your roster with swing for the fence guys. With such deep rosters most of us end up with at least a few of each regardless of our preference.  In this draft I ended up with a lot guys that will make at least some contribution on bad weeks while having 3-5 strong outings.  

3. What players are you comfortable selecting at or ahead of current ADP? Explain why people should be dialed-in to these players in their upcoming drafts? 

Jameis Winston, Melvin Gordon, Michael Crabtree, Hunter Henry and Tyler Boyd are the guys I seem to end up with in a lot of drafts. I think Winston is going to blow up this year. He has enough experience now, is in a good offensive scheme and the Buccaneers are loaded with receiving talent. 

I keep getting Gordon largely due to draft position but I see him as the distant fourth RB on the first tier. To me there is a significant drop off between Gordon who is a true feature back, and Freeman who is a stud, but shares the position with another excellent back. 

Crabtree to me, is the most underrated receiver in fantasy football. He has 164 receptions, 17 touchdowns and a pair of top twelve finishes in most formats over the past two seasons yet everyone treats him like a low end WR2. How I got him as the twenty third receiver off the board baffles me... but thank you!

Henry had 8 scores as a rookie playing behind Antonio Gates. Rookie tight ends just don't do that even when they are in the lead role. This year he and Gates have swapped roles which means a lot more targets from a quarterback that love to use his tight ends. 

Some people say Brandon LaFell is the Bengals number two receiver, others claim it is John Ross. Being a Bengals homer, I'm telling you Tyler Boyd is going to be the second leading WR this year. Ross is a deep threat that can't stay healthy and LaFell is a solid third or fourth receiver in the NFL. Boyd is another Marvin Jones, tall, fast, tough, excellent rout runner with great hands.  Sixty or so catches and half a dozen scores is pretty solid for a round 28 pick. I think Boyd will be in that area. 

Jeff Haseley - slot 4

Overall Strategy

Balance of High Ceiling and High Floor

Best Pick(s)
Corey Coleman, 14.09, WR60.
Jeff getting Corey Coleman in the 14th round is potentially the steal of the draft as Coleman is fighting to be the number one wide receiver in Cleveland and has tremendous upside heading into his second year. This is a player who looked very strong in his first two games last season prior to getting injured and has tremendous upside in the 14th round.

Worst Pick(s)
Derrick Henry, 4.09, RB18.
Taking Derrick Henry in the fourth round is a reach considering Jeff does not have a traditional running back one. Henry has tremendous upside and is likely a top 10 running back if Demarco Murray gets injured, but taking a fourth round pick who is only a top 30 running back if Murray does not go down is a big gamble for a fourth round pick.

Evaluation
Jeff did a nice job in the back half of the draft to compliment some of the risks that he took early on in the draft. Getting very safe players such as Danny Woodhead, Emmanuel Sanders, and Terrance West pair nicely with the risks that he took early with McCaffrey and Henry. If McCaffrey and Henry can pay off this is a team that could do extremely well this season.

post-draft questions

1. What was your strategy going in to this 28-round FPC Best Ball league? Did it turn out like you planned?

Normally, I like to wait on quarterback, however when Tom Brady was available at pick 5.04 I jumped at the chance to get a consistent quarterback who can get me solid production each and every week. In best ball, that's what you want - consistent production with upside and a few players who will be constants every week. I generally like to draft a balanced team and by selecting Brady in the 5th round, I would need to make up for that position that I would've selected (likely wide receiver) had I not picked my Brady. Both Rex Burkhead and Corey Coleman, selected in the 13th and 14th round respectively give me that chance to have high upside players as depth pieces.

I also added a few handcuffs, which I like to do in best ball leagues - and it doesn't have to be a running back handcuff. One in particular is the tight end position on Houston. The Texans led the league with 115 receptions to tight ends last year. 104 of those went to C.J. Fiedorowicz and Ryan Griffin. The duo also combined for 6 touchdowns. In best ball, it doesn't matter who you start, you simply receive the production from your entire roster to fill your starting lineup. I'll gladly take the Texans tight end production as a collective TE2 position, behind my TE1 Greg Olsen. If Olsen has a bad week, I have a safety valve from the Texans tight end duo. I added Ben Watson later on as a flier, who can be my TE3. I also drafted Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead from New England so I can stack them with Tom Brady and reap the benefits when one or more has success. If New England scores 30+ points a game, I like my chances that one or both of my backs could have a good game. Another duo I added was the combination of Carolina and NY Giants defense. If you look at their schedules, they tend to have an easier matchup when the other has a more difficult matchup. This gives me a good range of opportunity to thrive with one, nearly every week of the season. I also have both defenses ranked in the Top 10. 

2. What players are more suited for best ball leagues than in-season management leagues? Explain why you feel this way.

I mentioned the Patriots in the first question and I'm completely on board with drafting 2 or 3 to stack your lineup with scoring opportunities. Other players who are good best ball fits are those that tend to reach the end zone who may not rack up a lot of receptions (or yards). The Panthers wide receivers come to mind here, namely Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess. Benjamin averages 8 touchdowns a year and Funchess 5.5. Funchess in particular isn't thought of as a top fantasy receiver, but when he scores any given week, it may be the difference that your point total needed. Players on high scoring offenses, like Atlanta, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, etc are always good investments in best ball. The more points scored, the greater chance that a player on that team will have success. 

3. What players are you comfortable selecting at or ahead of current ADP? Explain why people should be dialed-in to these players in their upcoming drafts? 

Here's my list:

Quarterback: Deshaun Watson - Love his running ability and scoring tendency from rushes. Combine that with average yardage and touchdown pass production and he's a Top 10 fantasy quarterback. 

Running Back: Dalvin Cook, Kareem Hunt, DeAngelo Henderson - Christian McCaffrey is an obvious pick for interest level, but you can get similar production from Dalvin Cook and get him at a discount a round later. Kareem Hunt is going to see action this year, it's just a question of how much. So far, ball security and pass protection have been positive. He'll get on the field for sure and could see more reps/touches if Spencer Ware struggles to produce as the team's RB1. DeAngelo Henderson is someone to watch in Denver. C.J. Anderson doesn't have a stranglehold on the main role and Davontae Booker is recovering from a wrist injury. The door is open for Henderson to sneak in as the hot hand. 

Wide Receiver: DeVante Parker, Cooper Kupp, Kenny Golladay - Parker could be the receiver we are all talking about after a few weeks into the season. His connection with Jay Cutler seems to be very real and we know Cutler likes to latch onto a particular receiver with his assets and abilities. Cooper Kupp and Kenny Golladay are two rookies who I believe will be key pieces to their respective team's offenses. Kupp is capable of playing the possession receiver role that Tavon Austin never could sustain. The Rams offense with the addition of Sean McVay calling plays to Sammy Watkins and Todd Gurley's rushing success will open up opportunities all over the field that Kupp can exploit. Kupp is a polished 24-year old rookie with football intelligence that exceeds some of the veterans on the team. He'll be used from the beginning and could wind up leading the team in receptions. 

Tight End: Zach Ertz - The trade of Jordan Matthews to Buffalo not only opens up the target shares to Alshon Jeffery, but Zach Ertz. In my opinion, Ertz should be considered anytime after the Top 4 or 5 tight ends go off the board. The best news is that you can wait a few rounds later and get him at a discount. 

 

John Mamula - slot 5

Overall Strategy

Balanced Roster

Best Pick(s)
Russell Wilson 7.05, QB4.
We all hear about waiting on quarterbacks, and getting Russell Wilson in the 7th round is tremendous value. What is even more exciting for John is that he got in at the perfect time sparking a quarterback run as eight quarterbacks were taken over the next two rounds. Wilson provides tremendous upside in this Best Ball format. John was able to get the guy he wanted at the perfect draft position as three quarterbacks were taken before he would have picked again.

Worst Pick(s)
DeAndre Hopkins 3.05 WR14
Hopkins continues to miss training camp due to a hand issue which at this point is beginning to become concerning especially as he needs the repetitions in practice to develop a chemistry with rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson. This is a concern that other players drafted in this round do not have especially after Hopkins is coming off of a down season in 2016.

Evaluation
Overall John did a nice job of balancing out his talent amongst all of the positions on his team. He does not have a weak point on this team and has a nice compliment of all of his backups having paths to being future starters. This is one of the teams to beat in this league. It is really difficult to find anything wrong with his draft.

post-draft questions

1. What was your strategy going in to this 28-round FPC Best Ball league? Did it turn out like you planned?

My strategy in a 28-round FPC Best Ball league is to target high-upside players capable of scoring multiple-touchdowns on any given Sunday. I was happy with my first 2 rounds (Odell Beckham Jr. and DeMarco Murray) as both of these players are featured on their respective offenses. In the third round, I was targeting Greg Olsen due to the 1.5 PPR for TE rule but Jeff sniped him one pick before me. I settled for DeAndre Hopkins and got my TE, Jimmy Graham, in the 4th round. I paired Graham up with Russell Wilson who I believe is superb value in the 7th round. In Best Ball leagues I like stacking a QB with either a WR or TE to maximize upside. I drafted Brandon Marshall with the intention of targeting Eli Manning but I waited one round too long as Chad got to him first. At backup QB, I was able to draft Deshaun Watson to stack with Hopkins and Tyrod Taylor to stack with Zay Jones. Both of these stacks can provide winning upside in a best ball league. 

2. What players are more suited for best ball leagues than in-season management leagues? Explain why you feel this way.

I would rather target a high-upside rookie or player with some question marks rather than an old veteran. Think Dalvin Cook as compared to Frank Gore. You know what you are getting with Gore and the wheels can fall off at any time. Cook is more of a question mark at the RB position with upside potential. I also give a bump to players that are TD dependent at the WR position. A player such as Kelvin Benjamin doesn't catch many balls but he has a nose for the end zone. 

3. What players are you comfortable selecting at or ahead of current ADP? Explain why people should be dialed-in to these players in their upcoming drafts? 

QB: Jameis Winston: The pieces are in place for Winston to excel and it would not surprise me if he finished in the Top 5 fantasy QBs this season. 
Ben Roethlisberger: If the Steelers offense stays healthy, Roethlisberger will have a career season. The schedule is very favorable for a fast start. (at Cleveland, Minnesota. at Chicago, at Baltimore)
RB: Christian McCaffrey (In a PPR League): McCaffrey will be involved in the offensive gameplan on a weekly basis and will be a star in the league. 
WR: Stefon Diggs (In a PPR League): Diggs is a target monster with 112 targets in only 14 games last season. 
Zay Jones: Someone has to catch the ball in Buffalo with Sammy Watkins be traded to the Rams. I'm expecting the rookie WR to make an impact this season. 
TE: Zach Ertz: Many have been waiting for Ertz to breakout over the past couple of seasons. Without Jordan Matthews in the mix, Ertz targets are going to be more consistent this season. 

B.J. Vanderwoude - slot 6

Overall Strategy

Stack Detroit - Volume over Touchdowns

Best Pick(s)
Zach Ertz 6.07, TE10. This maybe my favorite pick of anyone in the draft, as in this 1.5 point per reception league where tight ends are given such a premium, BJ got a guy who is going to give him consistent volume each week. Over the last two seasons, Ertz has caught 75 and 78 passes and with Jordan Matthews leaving to Buffalo, this should open up even more targets for Ertz heading into this season.

Worst Pick(s)
Jamaal Charles, 15.06, RB58. This pick is a case of drafting the name instead of the player. Charles is still fighting for a roster spot with the Broncos and is a pretty big risk to take as there are running backs who were taken after Charles that had a more immediate path to contributing this year taken after him.

Evaluation
BJ did a nice job of having players who will have volume, but the problem that he has is that in a Best Ball format you want to make sure you have a nice balance of volume and guys who will score touchdowns. He made up for this towards the end of the draft by taking players who have touchdown upside such as Allen Hurns and Latavius Murray, but most of his players are volume receivers or running backs who are not in at the goal line. He also took three of the top options in Detroit, so he will be rooting heavily for the Lions this upcoming season.

post-draft questions

1. What was your strategy going in to this 28-round FPC Best Ball league? Did it turn out like you planned?

Drafting from the six spot, my strategy was to take the best player available (WR or RB) in the first two rounds, and then reevaluate going forward. I started out with Julio Jones and Todd Gurley as my first two picks, so it became much easier to take the best player available in rounds 3-5 and fill out my starting roster accordingly.  I wanted to have a balanced lineup with studs at the RB and WR positions, and I accomplished that without having to sacrifice depth. 

For the most part my strategy turned out like I had planned it. I've been consistently late on taking tight ends, and that can hurt you in FPC best ball formats. Luckily, I was able to grab Zach Ertz, as he is one of the last starting tight ends that you can depend on for consistent points, week in and week out. 

2. What players are more suited for best ball leagues than in-season management leagues? Explain why you feel this way.

With best ball leagues, you have some margin for error with consistency. This means that specific players can have four or five big games (and the rest below average) and help your team dramatically,  as opposed to standard season long leagues where you are looking for consistency in addition to upside. 

Big play wide receivers and #2 running backs tend to be the guys I look to draft in best ball formats. Desean Jackson is a perfect example, as he will have games where he crosses the 100 yard mark with a touchdown, but considering he is on a new team and clearly the #2 wide receiver, there is also the possibility that he will disappear for several games. The running back position thins out quickly once the starters are chosen, so I was happy to get both Latavius Murray and Jamal Charles late in this draft. Murray looks to have taken a backseat to Dalvin Cook, but expecting a rookie running back to hold up for 16 games is ambitious. Both Murray and Charles have proven that they can be top fantasy backs, so even a four or five game stretch as a starter could help me quite a bit towards the end of the season. 

3. What players are you comfortable selecting at or ahead of current ADP? Explain why people should be dialed-in to these players in their upcoming drafts? 

Ben Roethlisberger: I agree with my colleagues, Roethlisberger seems to slip past his ADP value every year, and this season is no different. He has elite skill position players and is in command of the Pittsburgh offense, he will have another big season. 
 
Derek Carr:  Carr made a name for himself as a franchise quarterback in 2016, and he should continue to build on that success this year. He has Amari Cooper back for his third season and Michael Crabtree has proven he can be a difference maker at the #2 wide receiver spot. With Marshawn Lynch in the fold, the Raiders offense looks to be one on the rise. 

Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey is not a player who will slip much past his ADP, and it is hard to take him too far in advance of his ADP due to the way the tiers drop off at RB and WR. With that said, McCaffrey has a very solid floor this year as a do-it-all back for the Panthers. He was drafted to take the pressure off of Cam Newton and he will do exactly that. I prefer him in PPR leagues, but he should have a solid touchdown total as well. 

Justin Howe - slot 7

Overall Strategy

Prioritize Tight Ends

Best Pick(s)
Thomas Rawls 11.07. RB37 All signs are pointing towards Rawls having a strong chance of becoming the week one starter in Seattle with Eddie Lacy continuing to struggle during preseason. This is a great high upside pick from Justin who solidified a strong running back core as one of his strengths for this team.

Worst Pick(s)
Tevin Coleman, 5.07, RB20. Justin reached for Tevin Coleman in this format as Coleman is a guy who is only going to get 12-14 carries per game, and in a Best Ball format you want more upside than that considering Devonta Freeman will get the primary goal line looks. Passing on other running backs with more solidified roles could prove costly.

Evaluation
Justin focused his draft by taking advantage of the tight end focused rules of 1.5 point per reception by taking Kelce and Fleener early in the draft. He complimented his tight ends nicely at the wide receiver position adding talented players with Evans, Fitzgerald, and Snead. Justin may be a little bit weak at running back as Isaiah Crowell will lead the way for him but he complimented Crowell with Tevin Coleman and Bilal Powell both who will be in split carry situations. A big year for Thomas Rawls could do wonders for his team for this year.

post-draft quesitons

1. What was your strategy going in to this 28-round FPC Best Ball league? Did it turn out like you planned?

Well, my primary plan was "Draft Travis Kelce," and I'll go further into that in a minute. More generally, my objective while picking from the middle of the round was to attack wide receiver in the premium rounds and throw tons of quantity at the running back spot.
Wideouts are a bit safer and usually significantly more prolific than backs, so depending on draft slot, it typically makes sense to spend your early picks there. Landing stud RBs late in the draft is a low-probability play, but I balanced that by scooping up eight of them. The realistic hope is that at least 1-2 of my late-round question-mark guys turn out relevant by season's end. Wide receiver doesn't require quite the same quantity; their injury/bust rates are a bit lower, so I'm usually content to roster 5-6 strong ones.

I strayed from this strategy a bit in Round 5 by stopping Tevin Coleman's slide, but I just dearly love his value around RB20 and wanted in - especially since the WR pool
Coleman has potential to outscore 10-12 of the RBs drafted ahead of him, while the WRs were looking more and more alike. I think that worked out beautifully for me; I was able to secure Coleman and still stack Willie Snead and Mike Wallace as my WR3, WR4, and WR5, respectively.

2. What players are more suited for best ball leagues than in-season management leagues? Explain why you feel this way.

Thomas Rawls won't be a RB1 or 2 most weeks. In fact, even when he's starting, he'll carry more bust potential than most, considering his lack of receiving contribution. That can be bad news, of course, from your RB2. But it's perfectly acceptable from your RB4 - especially when he came as the 37th one off the board. And we know what a gifted runner Rawls (occasionally) is: over his last 12 games of 35 snaps or more, he's posted 5 RB2 weeks (and 4 RB1s). I love the value I got from him here, even though his ADP is getting close to the highest I'll pay for him.

My tight end corps is also suited well to best-ball. Obviously Kelce is the big draw, but the TE-premium format in play here dictates that TEs can work their way into the flex spot with unexpectedly big weeks. And my group features a couple of late-round "ceiling" guys typically reliant upon touchdowns for their value. Erik Swoope is a massive, athletic ex-basketballer who'll catch balls from Andrew Luck, one of the NFL's most TE-friendly passers in the red zone. And Seth DeValve is a seam-stretcher who caught just 10 passes as a 2016 rookie, but scored twice. With only a banged-up rookie to fight for passing-down snaps, DeValve could turn in a few ADP-busting weeks from near the bottom of my draft.

3. What players are you comfortable selecting at or ahead of current ADP? Explain why people should be dialed-in to these players in their upcoming drafts?

Rex Burkhead, Rex Burkhead, Rex Burkhead. He's showing great as the closest thing the Patriots have to a lead back, fully capitalizing on Mike Gillislee's injury. And he's a Patriot, so he carries built-in boosts in volume and touchdown opportunity. Yet his ADP is still exceptionally low. With this kind of discount, he's become a no-brainer around the 13th, where almost everything is speculative. I didn't get land him here - I slow-played him one round too long - but I applaud Jeff Haseley for leaping.

As for my roster... I knew I was taking Kelce before the draft even kicked off. In a PPR league, he values closely to Rob Gronkowski based upon fair, conservative projections. He doesn't miss games, and he's the clear face of the Kansas City passing game, boasting real 90-catch upside. Keep in mind that, in 2016, he posted 85 catches and 1,125 yards despite actually playing fewer snaps than he did in 2015. With Jeremy Maclin gone and no one replacing him, Kelce should be even further saturated with attention. Last year, he averaged 7 receptions and 95 yards with Maclin off the field.

And in FPC's TE-premium format, look out below. Assuming Gronkowski sticks in his recent great-but-not-absurd touchdown bracket, Kelce actually projects better thanks to his volume. A 90-catch season would score as 135 wide receiver catches, after all. And if Kelce simultaneously boosts his ho-hum touchdown rate, he'll be a clear-cut league-winner. Yet I knew he'd come markedly cheaper than Gronkowski, who commanded a first-round pick. Exiting the first two rounds with both Evans and Kelce locks me into wild volume numbers and dynamic touchdown upside - with great floors for both.

Jeff Tefertiller - slot 8

Overall Strategy

Big Play Bounce back Receivers

Best Pick(s)
Doug Martin, 7.08, RB 27/Jacquizz Rodgers 13.08 RB 49
Jeff did a great job realizing that instead of spending an early pick on a second running back in the Best Ball format with 28 rounds he could use two picks to make up one running back as Doug Martin is suspended for the first three games of the season.

Worst Pick(s)
Sammy Watkins 5.08 WR28 Watkins was traded in the offseason which is a huge concern for a wide receiver traded so late to get his timing down with his quarterback. Taking Watkins one pick after Jeff took Martavis Bryant is a very risky strategy taking two receivers who are highly volatile and played a combined eight games last season.

Evaluation
Jeff built his team around high upside players who are looking to rebound from poor 2015’s. Taking players such as Allen Robinson, Martavis Bryant, and Sammy Watkins in three consecutive rounds could pay tremendous dividends if they all reach their potential, but if they bust it will make a difficult to compete as even in the later rounds he complimented his high risk receivers with Ted Ginn, Mike Williams who is not expected to be back until at least October and Paul Richardson who is also a big play receiver. His team hinges on Robinson, Bryant, and Watkins.

post-draft questions

1. What was your strategy going in to this 28-round FPC Best Ball league? Did it turn out like you planned?
 Drafting late in the 1st, I wanted a top wide receiver and felt fortunate to get Green.  He was the last player of the elite in the tier for me.  Then, my plan was to get one of top running backs who might fall, or one of the next tier of receivers, specifically Nelson or Hilton.  Thankfully, Howard fell.  This was a great start.  Also, with so many rounds, I decided to go quantity over quality at QB, TE, and Defense.  Drafters have to decide which positions to seek quality and which to seek quantity.   

2. What players are more suited for best ball leagues than in-season management leagues? Explain why you feel this way.
In best ball leagues, I look for players with week-to-week upside.  For this reason, I like Ben Roethlisberger, Ted Ginn, and Paul Richardson.  You get the great games and there is no downside for the clunkers that each will have this season.  

3. What players are you comfortable selecting at or ahead of current ADP? Explain why people should be dialed-in to these players in their upcoming drafts? 
Earlier in the offseason, I was taking Derrick Henry and Martavis Henry well above their ADPs, and was called out for it.  Even though each has seen their respective ADP climb substantially, these are the types of players that win championships, offering the upside of a top pick with the lesser cost.  Also, the ADP of Doug Martin is too low considering that the 3-game suspension is incorporated into the cost, but he is priced like it is a 6-game suspension.  The Martin/Rodgers combination is very cheap considering the owner gets a solid RB2 on the cheap.

Alex Miglio - slot 9

Overall Strategy

High Risk

Best Pick(s)
Dwayne Allen, 12.04 TE20 Getting Allen in the 12th round and as the 20th tight end is tremendous value considering Rob Gronkowski’s long injury history. With this league placing a premium on tight ends if Gronkowski were to go down, Allen immediately is one of the best values at the position. Allen should still have value even when Gronkowski is playing as we saw last season where Martellus Bennett had a three touchdown game playing alongside Gronkwoski.

Worst Pick(s)
Ezekiel Elliott, 2.04 RB7 Taking Elliott this early in a format that largely downplays the value of running backs is going to be dependent on Elliott getting his suspension reduced for this to pay off. Elliott is going to have to come back and be great after his suspension to make up for the point differential lost during that six week stretch.

Evaluation
Alex took some chances early on in the draft by taking Ezekiel Elliott and Tyreek Hill in the second and third rounds. At the wide receiver position, Alex is going to need to survive the six game suspension of Elliott, as his other running backs are non-standard running backs in Ameer Abdullah, James White, and Gio Bernard which in a PPR setup should be able to catch some passes but may not have the touchdown upside that you’ll be looking for in a best ball format. Alex did a great job taking advantage of the 1.5 point per reception setup as even though he did not get a top tight end he took four tight ends which should allow him to flex multiple tight ends in several weeks.

post-draft questions

1. What was your strategy going in to this 28-round FPC Best Ball league? Did it turn out like you planned?
I hate drafting out of the 7-9 slot, and MFL seems to have me stuck there this year. That said, my team turned out rather nicely.
There are a lot of ways you can attack FPC drafts, but the name of the game is being nimble. For example, I--and the rest of staff, for that matter--normally wait for a quarterback. But when the opportunity presented itself to take Drew Brees at the tail end of the fifth round, I had to take it. The same went when Ezekiel Elliott was there in the second round. Yes, he could still sit for six games, but I was willing to gamble he will miss less time. Now imagine if LeSean McCoy and Elliott are healthy and in my lineup for 12 weeks this season. You grab value where you can find it.
Of course, the most important position to deal with is tight end. With 1.5 PPR at the position, you have to make sure you are covered. I might have taken Rob Gronkowski if he was there in the second round, but I am happy with my set. Kyle Rudolph should provide a high floor, while Dwayne Allen is plugged in as my weekly upside guy in the Patriots offense. Julius Thomas and Tyler Higbee backfill the position nicely, too.
I am also thrilled I was able to land Tyreek Hill and Jarvis Landry after starting RB-RB. Hill has grown on me all offseason, and he is an excellent best-ball receiver. The rest of my corps is full of upside.
This is getting long, but a word on kickers and defenses--you need several. After a few years drafting in Pros vs. Joes, one thing I've learned is that they go in runs, and then you're stuck with roster bubble players and terrible defensive options. I opted to start early, and my team was better for it in the end.

2. What players are more suited for best ball leagues than in-season management leagues? Explain why you feel this way.
Some of my favorite best ball targets are guys whose values are depressed precisely because of their week-to-week volatility. James White would be my shining example here. The Patriots running back situation is scary from a fantasy perspective. The sun also rises in the east, and bears do in fact go in the woods. Figuring out who is going to hit it big every week is a huge headache, but in best ball those headaches go away. So a guy like White, who was among the league leaders in running back receptions last season, is perfect here. People shy away from him because Bill Belichick hates fantasy football, meanwhile he is liable to put up Super Bowl numbers several times this year. DeSean Jackson, Stefon Diggs, Martellus Bennett, and Rob Kelley are some of my best-ball favorites for similar reasons.

3. What players are you comfortable selecting at or ahead of current ADP? Explain why people should be dialed-in to these players in their upcoming drafts? 
I continue to stump for Christian McCaffrey even as his ADP keeps creeping up. The Panthers are going to use him all over the place, and I'm fine with the likelihood that Jonathan Stewart will take away goal line work. McCaffrey is one of my favorite PPR running backs this season, and I will take him in the third round if I haven't already taken a running back or two. I'm also pretty comfortable taking all the players mentioned in question no. 2 ahead of their ADP in best-ball leagues. Ben Roethlisberger is my go-to quarterback when I have waited at the position, and I'm completely fine taking him a round or two early to ensure I get him. He is a top-5 fantasy quarterback in my book, assuming he and his skill guys can stay healthy.

Chad Parsons - slot 10

Overall Strategy

Safe Early Upside Late

Best Pick(s)
Joe Mixon 3.10 RB14
After a strong first two rounds taking Jordy Nelson and Jay Ajayi, Chad got a great high upside value in Joe Mixon who was one of the highest upside players left on the board at this point. Mixon has the upside of being a top five running back this upcoming season and taking him in the third round could give Chad a top five receiver and two top five running backs if everything goes well which is a great start in a Best Ball format.

Worst Pick(s)
Adrian Peterson 7.10 RB29
It’s hard to find fault with any of Chad’s draft picks as they’re all high floor guys, but Adrian Peterson at this spot is more of a luxury than a need. There are plenty of running backs that were drafted after this pick that had the same volume opportunity as Peterson. Waiting on his fourth running back and taking an upgrade at the quarterback position would have been more ideal as taking Peterson in a best ball format is not ideal due to the limited workload he is expected to get.

Evaluation
Chad started strong locking up a great wide receiver and running back in Jordy Nelson and Jay Ajayi. After these two picks, he went high upside with Mixon and Reed and quickly balanced that out with going very conservative over the next seven picks locking up a nice balance of high floor players. Towards the back half of the draft, Chad went back to some upside players with Terrance Williams, Vernon Davis, and Marquise Goodwin. This is a nice balance of high upside and high floor players. If there is one area Chad maybe weak on it is at the quarterback position as he only has Phillip Rivers and Eli Manning. Taking a third quarterback would have helped this team.

post-draft questions

1. What was your strategy going in to this 28-round FPC Best Ball league? Did it turn out like you planned?

With a late round draft position was going to be flexible in the first 2-3 rounds in terms of positional emphasis. I was committed to a late-round quarterback approach outside of getting Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, or Drew Brees in Round 5 - which nearly happened as Brees was drafted at 5.09 right in front of me.

Quality depth is paramount in best ball and one of my goals was to stay ahead of positional runs and not get squeezed at a position along the way. In general, this is one of my weak spots over the years is tempting the positional runs a little too much, especially if not in the middle of the draft order. 

Instead of waiting too long at quarterback, I opted to double up with Philip Rivers and Eli Manning in Rounds 9-10 at QB12 and QB14 respectively. It was a little earlier than I planned, but if I had passed the board was past 20 quarterbacks gone by the time my late Round 10 pick came on the clock.

Being aggressive to get at least one rock solid kicker is also in my deeper best ball draft plans. I took Stephen Gostkowski as the second kicker off the board in Round 18, adding two more kickers with decent job security by Round 22. Defenses are a little different as they cannot get injured or lose their jobs. I prioritize kickers more in best ball.

2. What players are more suited for best ball leagues than in-season management leagues? Explain why you feel this way.

I take more swings at upside in best ball as the nature of the scoring is if a player can provide a few big games, they are a successful pick. Jordan Reed is a good example in Round 4. I would not ordinarily draft Reed, but in TE-premium and being more aggressive to get Vernon Davis (Round 16 as TE29) is a prime pairing in best ball. John Ross, Adrian Peterson, Terrance Williams, and Marquise Goodwin are other players I targeted along the way with more best ball appeal for a few impactful games than in head-to-head where an owner needs to pinpoint when to start them.

3. What players are you comfortable selecting at or ahead of current ADP? Explain why people should be dialed-in to these players in their upcoming drafts? 

Joe Mixon is turning into one of 'my guys' this year in the Round 3-4 range. I got him at RB14 in this league. I sense a potential league-winning impact from Mixon later in the season where Jeremy Hill may be more involved in September than owners of Mixon would like. It all worked out in this draft as I took Jeremy Hill as well in Round 13 at RB50.

Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams are two common early round targets as well. Once the main running backs are gone in Round 1, Nelson is an easy target with three finishes as the No.1 or No.2 fantasy receiver within his last four healthy seasons. Attaching your main receivers to Aaron Rodgers is not a bad plan and Adams is also a nice value as my typical WR2 or WR3. Darin Tietgen took Adams at 4.02 in this draft, prompting my selection of Jordan Reed.

Darin Tietgen - slot 11

Overall Strategy

Stacking the Titans passing game

Best Pick(s)
Jordan Matthews 9.11 WR45- The Bills have done a complete overhaul this offseason at the wide receiver position trading for Jordan Matthews. The Bills lost their top four wide receivers in targets last season opening up 216 targets to be spread around this offense. Jordan Matthews should be in a prime spot to receive a significant amount of targets this season due to the fact that there is not anyone else on this team to throw to and he will be the clear number one receiver heading into this season.

Worst Pick(s)
Corey Davis, 5.11, WR30. There is a lot to like about the future prospects of Corey Davis as he has tremendous talent, but Darin took him a little bit too early. Davis has not had a full preseason due to a hamstring injury which has sidelined him most of the preseason which is concerning. Complicating matters is that the Titans have been a run first offense and likely will continue this trend this season so the amount of targets will likely be less for Davis than other wide receivers taken in this range.

Evaluation
In this draft we have had two teams stack offenses as BJ stacked the Lions passing game, and Darin is stacking the Titans passing game going with Corey Davis, Delanie Walker and Marcus Mariota in back to back to back selections. Stacking can work in a best ball format especially in deep leagues such as this as when Mariota has a good game it will make Darin’s team unstoppable. The downside is that the Titans last year threw the ball the fifth least of any team, so Darin will need that to increase to have that stack pay off significantly.

post-draft questions

1. What was your strategy going in to this 28-round FPC Best Ball league? Did it turn out like you planned?  

As with my strategy in all best-ball leagues, I try to blend safe picks with high-upside picks.  Guess that's kind of the same for any redrafts, but you can lean towards high-upside picks earlier on since safer guys could always be plugged in if those high-upside guys have some bust weeks.  

Drafting near the end of the first round gives you the opportunity to get two pretty good players right off the bat.  I thought Gronk would flip back to 2.02 but Danny snagged him on the turn.  Still, I'm happy with two players  (Thomas and Freeman) that are in high-octane offenses that will be focuses of those offenses.   That's another part of my best-ball strategy:  focusing on high-octane offenses since players could have some huge weeks.

The rest of the draft went well, although I distinctly remember 3-4 times in the middle rounds where players I really wanted were snaked right ahead of me or within a couple picks.  

QB-wise, I ended up with a guy who I'm super-high on (Mariota), a guy who could prove useful in the beginning of the season (Prescott) and an emergency fall-back (Savage).

My RBs here are much stronger than any corps I've drafted either in real or mock leagues.   Freeman was best available at 2.02 and followed up with Miller who was a great value at 3.11.  He could easily finish as a top-5 RB in PPR.  Paired the ageless Gore with his likely handcuff Turbin, and added some high-upside PPR guys.

At WR I feel like I'm absolutely loaded from a PPR upside standpoint.  Thomas is a stud and I mixed in a bunch of guys who could conceivably have some real big weeks. I think people undervalue Adams (again, high-octane offense) and between Jaron and John Brown, I might have a boom-or-bust Cardinal WR.

I kept missing on TE, from Gronk on down through the next tier.  I ended up pairing Mariota with Walker, a combo that could have some real big weeks.  And, unlike in traditional redrafts, I felt fine adding two rookies in Engram and Njoku as my backups.  Neither one will be consistent but could have those odd weeks where they go big.

PK and DEF are honestly throw-ins.  Obviously you want a somewhat reliable PK because they could get hurt or cut.  Tucker was my PK1 going in and was drafted when I was staring at a bunch of offensive "JAG's" .

2. What players are more suited for best ball leagues than in-season management leagues? Explain why you feel this way.

As touched on above, I do like having some stability in terms of "safe" players, but I am much less risk-averse for the mega-high upside guys.  Once I felt comfortable with a QB, couple of RBs, couple of WRs and a TE that would produce weekly points, I started drafting guys for upside and pretty much ignored ADP.   Especially drafting near the turn, I couldn't afford to wait.  I grabbed guys I wanted, knowing full well they may not have survived all the way back to me had I waited.

3. What players are you comfortable selecting at or ahead of current ADP? Explain why people should be dialed-in to these players in their upcoming drafts? 

Players I drafted ahead of ADP in this league:

John Brown - lots of issues here but could have huge weeks if he can stay on the field.  Be prepared to take Jaron Brown, though, as a handcuff.  This works best in best-ball formats, of course.

Marcus Mariota - look at the TDs last year.  Look at who he was throwing to.  He now has Corey Davis and Eric Decker.  Add in the rushing ability.  Honestly, I think he has top-3 potential.

Jordan Matthews - who exactly is Tyrod Taylor going to throw to?  By default Matthews is getting targets and in PPR formats this can turn into gold if he can also find the end zone on occasion.

Duke Johnson - I don't know why this guy gets no love.  Or not enough love.  He caught 53 balls last year and when given the ball on handoffs, ran for a great ypc clip.  The Browns are finding a little stability on offense and have even gone so far to say Johnson could line up in the slot as a WR. He could top 70 catches this year.  Provides for some stability and upside.

Danny Tuccitto - slot 12

Overall Strategy

Rookie Upside

Best Pick(s)
Kareem Hunt, 12.01, RB40. All signs are pointing towards Kareem Hunt continuing to gain a role in Kansas City. This is great value for the rookie running back who not only handcuffs Spencer Ware, but also should have some standalone value in the passing game, as the Chiefs will be sure to design some plays for Hunt especially if he continues to have as strong of a preseason as initial reports are that he is having.

Worst Pick(s)
Kenny Golladay, 10.01, WR47. Kenny Golladay is one of the preseason darlings that seem to pop up every year and we watch their stock rise due to an impressive performance. Tajae Sharpe was the prime example last year and we saw how that worked out. Golladay had a tremendous week one game in the preseason, but he is still working primarily with the second team offense and is on an offense where he will likely be the fourth or fifth option in the passing game this season. With all the issues surrounding Cam Newton’s shoulder, I would have liked to see Danny go with a second quarterback here instead of waiting to take Deshone Kizer later in the draft.

Evaluation
Danny took a lot of risks in this draft by taking twelve rookies in this draft which is an extremely risky strategy considering most of his depth is filled by the rookies on this team. If everything goes right, and this rookie class is extremely strong this strategy could be tremendous, but this seems like it is taking on a significant amount of risks considering the bust rate of some of these draft picks which are late round picks.

post-draft questions

1. What was your strategy going in to this 28-round FPC Best Ball league? Did it turn out like you planned?

Being that this is tight end premium scoring, my only concrete goal was to come out of the draft with as many top-of-the-depth-chart tight ends as possible, with one of them being either Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, or Greg Olsen. Mission accomplished. I was especially happy being able to not spend much on Austin Hooper and Jesse James as my TE2 and TE3, as I think they're both primed for breakout seasons.

Speaking of which, my only other "strategy," if you can call it one, was to populate my bench with as many potential breakout candidates as possible. With 28 rounds of drafting and this being a best-ball league, I wasn't at all averse to reaching for sleepers I really like rather than taking low-variance, "they are who we thought they were" kinds of players.

2. What players are more suited for best ball leagues than in-season management leagues? Explain why you feel this way.

I kind of answered that above, so I'll instead use this space to discuss a few specific players on my roster. There was a reaction in the draft room when I took Kenny Golladay at the 9-10 turn, but look at the receivers who went in the following two rounds (i.e., before my next pick): Rishard Matthews, Zay Jones, Adam Thielen, Marqise Lee, and Robby Anderson. I like Jones and Anderson as breakout candidates, but they're both on teams that seem to be tanking. Meanwhile, Matthews, Thielen, and Lee are what they are already. I mean, what's the point of taking these guys "at or near ADP?" I think Golladay has a good chance to be better than all five of them, and a decent chance to be much better than them, so why not reach for him at 9.12?

3. What players are you comfortable selecting at or ahead of current ADP? Explain why people should be dialed-in to these players in their upcoming drafts? 

I'm just going to list them off one by one:

• Dalvin Cook -- All the buzz surrounding him has done has changed me getting him for big value to me getting him at ADP. That's where I selected him in this draft. I've already made my case for him in a Campfire Chat on rookie running backs, but the main point is that he rates as a bellcow back.
• Isaiah Crowell -- Crowell's also a bellcow back, but going after Christian McCaffrey. I accept that McCaffrey's a transcendent talent. I really do. I just can't see taking him in the earlier rounds, when what you want there are low-variance known commodities. (McCaffrey's role is the high-variance unknown here, not his talent.) Crowell's one such commodity, and like Jordan Howard has proven that he can post starting fantasy running back numbers despite playing for a bad team.
• Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, and Greg Olsen -- Especially in tight end premium formats like FPC, all three of these players are going below their ADP despite being head and shoulders above the rest of the tight end crop. Even in regular PPR, Gronkowski's going 8 picks below the value I have assigned to him, Kelce's going 11 picks lower, and Olsen's going 24 picks lower.
• Kenny Golladay -- No additional commentary necessary.
• Tyreek Hill -- As I detailed in my True Fantasy Points article on wide receivers, Hill already has a statistical profile commensurate with the best players at the position. He's especially underrated in PPR because it turns out that he has the No. 1 "true" receptions per route run in the league. And this says nothing of his value as a runner! He finished last season as WR23 in PPR and is coming off the board as WR17 this season. I think he has the skill set to be even better than that, so I have no problem taking him at or earlier than his No. 39 ADP.

Full Draft

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