Fantasy Overview: Week 10

Get yourself caught up on what's going on in the league as we enter Week 10 of the NFL season. Here's my take on the fantasy landscape around the league and how you can benefit. 

Who's Hot - fantasy points per game Last four Weeks?

(Fantasy Points per game based on standard scoring)

Quarterback

Rank Player G Cmp Att CmpPct PYd YD/Att TD INT Rush RYd Yd/Rush TD FantPt FantPt/G
1 Drew Brees 4 126 171 73.7 1420 8.3 11 2 3 -1 -0.3 1 127.9 32
2 Tom Brady 3 70 94 74.5 913 9.71 9 0 8 30 3.8 0 93.7 31.2
3 Aaron Rodgers 4 124 179 69.3 1163 6.5 11 2 17 117 6.9 0 120.9 30.2
4 Dak Prescott 3 58 93 62.4 781 8.4 8 2 12 64 5.3 1 87.5 29.2
5 Marcus Mariota 4 84 126 66.7 1099 8.72 10 3 15 103 6.9 1 115.3 28.8
6 Matt Ryan 4 102 145 70.3 1240 8.55 11 2 8 19 2.4 0 114.9 28.7
7 Kirk Cousins 3 86 129 66.7 1022 7.92 5 2 8 22 2.8 1 80.3 26.8
8 Andrew Luck 4 90 142 63.4 1096 7.72 7 4 28 145 5.2 1 102.3 25.6
9 Jameis Winston 3 60 99 60.6 710 7.17 8 1 6 29 4.8 0 76.4 25.5
10 Andy Dalton 3 67 101 66.3 846 8.38 4 1 6 38 6.3 2 76.1 25.4
11 Tyrod Taylor 4 77 130 59.2 872 6.71 4 1 28 194 6.9 3 99 24.8
12 Josh McCown 1 25 49 51 341 6.96 2 2 3 10 3.3 0 24.1 24.1
13 Blake Bortles 4 98 171 57.3 1106 6.47 7 4 18 110 6.1 0 93.3 23.3
14 Colin Kaepernick 3 53 102 52 728 7.14 4 2 22 173 7.9 0 69.7 23.2
15 Matthew Stafford 4 91 137 66.4 995 7.26 8 1 7 46 6.6 0 92.4 23.1
16 Eli Manning 3 78 119 65.5 856 7.19 7 4 4 -6 -1.5 0 69.2 23.1
17 Case Keenum 3 86 131 65.6 908 6.93 5 6 4 10 2.5 1 65.4 21.8
18 Derek Carr 4 105 161 65.2 1122 6.97 6 1 12 28 2.3 0 86.9 21.7
19 Carson Palmer 3 87 129 67.4 918 7.12 4 1 4 7 1.8 0 64.6 21.5
20 Cam Newton 3 61 106 57.5 759 7.16 3 1 16 60 3.8 1 63 21
21 Philip Rivers 4 89 153 58.2 1091 7.13 6 4 4 -5 -1.3 0 76.1 19
22 Jay Cutler 1 20 31 64.5 252 8.13 1 0 1 2 2 0 17.8 17.8
23 Nick Foles 2 36 55 65.5 410 7.45 3 0 4 -4 -1 0 35.1 17.6
24 Russell Wilson 4 91 134 67.9 1030 7.69 2 1 13 26 2 1 68 17
25 Sam Bradford 3 78 118 66.1 725 6.14 3 1 1 -1 -1 0 49.7 16.6

Brees, Brady, Rodgers....Prescott?  That's right. Dak Prescott is among the league's best fantasy quarterbacks over the last four weeks. And right behind him is Marcus Mariota. Not seen in the Top 5 or even the Top 10 include Eli Manning, Derek Carr, Cam Newton, Philip Rivers and Russell Wilson. I wouldn't go out of my way to trade Philip Rivers for Marcus Mariota, but numbers are numbers and you could make an argument for why that's a good decision. Mariota's 6.7 yards per rush this season is second only to Colin Kaepernick (7.9). The ebb and flow of the season will show different quarterbacks in the Top 10 for any given four game stretch. It's no different with Mariota who was 29th in Weeks 1-4 and now 5th in Weeks 6-9. 

Matt Ryan and Andrew Luck are among the Top 8 playing four games in four weeks. Ryan has more touchdowns in that span, 11 vs 7 for Luck, however Luck adds 145 yards rushing with a rushing touchdown to his credit. The result is a approximately 3 less fantasy points per game for Luck, but still among the league's better fantasy quarterbacks in that time range. 

Running Back

Rank Player G Rsh Yd Yd/Rush TD Targ Rec RecYd Yd/Rec TD FantPt FantPt/G
1 Jay Ajayi 3 77 529 6.9 4 7 5 24 4.8 0 79.3 26.4
2 Melvin Gordon III 4 104 469 4.5 3 20 14 162 11.6 1 87.1 21.8
3 David Johnson 3 65 248 3.8 3 28 18 169 9.4 0 59.7 19.9
4 Latavius Murray 3 49 221 4.5 5 13 8 40 5 0 56.1 18.7
5 Ezekiel Elliott 3 68 345 5.1 2 9 7 74 10.6 0 53.9 18
6 Matt Forte 4 76 293 3.9 4 12 8 78 9.8 1 67.1 16.8
7 Lamar Miller 3 52 266 5.1 2 11 8 42 5.3 1 48.8 16.3
8 Jonathan Stewart 3 59 222 3.8 4 3 1 25 25 0 48.7 16.2
9 LeGarrette Blount 3 55 220 4 4 3 3 27 9 0 48.7 16.2
10 DeMarco Murray 4 81 346 4.3 4 16 11 54 4.9 0 64 16
11 Spencer Ware 3 48 227 4.7 1 6 6 114 19 1 46.1 15.4
12 LeSean McCoy 3 48 236 4.9 3 8 6 37 6.2 0 45.3 15.1
13 Jacquizz Rodgers 2 45 223 5 1 2 2 18 9 0 30.1 15.1
14 Jeremy Hill 3 42 282 6.7 2 4 4 24 6 0 42.6 14.2
15 Frank Gore 4 67 264 3.9 2 11 10 60 6 2 56.4 14.1
16 Theo Riddick 2 25 126 5 0 14 9 83 9.2 1 26.9 13.5
17 DuJuan Harris 2 21 98 4.7 0 8 7 101 14.4 1 25.9 13
18 Jordan Howard 3 48 209 4.4 2 9 6 55 9.2 0 38.4 12.8
19 Mark Ingram 4 50 276 5.5 1 9 8 42 5.3 2 49.8 12.5
20 Giovani Bernard 3 43 181 4.2 2 8 6 66 11 0 36.7 12.2
21 C.J. Anderson 2 26 144 5.5 1 5 4 34 8.5 0 23.8 11.9
22 Matt Jones 2 26 162 6.2 1 0 0 0   0 22.2 11.1
23 LeVeon Bell 3 45 166 3.7 0 29 22 161 7.3 0 32.7 10.9
24 Devonta Freeman 4 55 210 3.8 1 19 14 103 7.4 1 43.3 10.8
25 Christine Michael 4 49 157 3.2 4 8 7 24 3.4 0 42.1 10.5
26 James White 3 9 34 3.8 0 19 12 93 7.8 3 30.7 10.2
27 Mike Gillislee 4 31 197 6.4 3 5 5 13 2.6 0 39 9.8
28 Rob Kelley 3 30 161 5.4 1 3 1 1 1 1 28.2 9.4
29 Devontae Booker 4 51 205 4 2 13 9 49 5.4 0 37.4 9.4
30 Terrance West 3 46 118 2.6 2 9 5 42 8.4 0 28 9.3

Raise your hand if you had Jay Ajayi leading the way in the league's second quarter of the season. His 529 yards rushing in the last four weeks (3 games) is tops in the league. That's 176 rushing yards per game!  

Melvin Gordon III has been consistently productive all season long and undoubtedly could be the fantasy MVP in the first half of the season. Gordon's 11 touchdowns in his Sophomore year after zero as a rookie is what makes this story all the more compelling. The injury to Danny Woodhead most definitely played a role in Gordon's ascension, but it's hard to ignore that he wouldn't have produced regardless.

David Johnson tops the season-long ranks from a fantasy points per game approach, edging Gordon by nearly a full point per game. Johnson's reign as the best fantasy back should continue this week against San Francisco - the league's worst run defense, by far (173 rushing yards allowed to opposing team running backs per week). Interestingly enough, Johnson is only averaging 3.8 yards per carry in the last four weeks. 

Wide receiver

Rank Player G Rsh Yd Yd/Rush TD Targ Rec RecYd Yd/Rec TD FantPt FantPt/G
1 Odell Beckham Jr Jr 3 0 0   0 29 17 317 18.6 4 55.7 18.6
2 Mike Evans 3 0 0   0 41 23 296 12.9 4 53.6 17.9
3 A.J. Green 3 0 0   0 36 23 378 16.4 1 43.8 14.6
4 Julio Jones 4 0 0   0 40 27 453 16.8 2 57.3 14.3
5 Kenny Britt 3 0 0   0 22 14 228 16.3 3 40.8 13.6
6 Mike Wallace 3 0 0   0 28 18 341 18.9 1 40.1 13.4
7 Michael Thomas 4 0 0   0 32 26 344 13.2 3 52.4 13.1
8 Brandin Cooks 4 1 2 2 0 30 23 341 14.8 3 52.3 13.1
9 Golden Tate 4 2 4 2 0 43 32 379 11.8 2 50.3 12.6
10 Jamison Crowder 3 1 -9 -9 0 26 19 267 14.1 2 37.8 12.6
11 Randall Cobb 3 5 21 4.2 0 28 20 162 8.1 3 36.3 12.1
12 Cole Beasley 3 0 0   0 19 16 167 10.4 3 34.7 11.6
13 Davante Adams 4 0 0   0 41 31 281 9.1 3 46.1 11.5
14 Rishard Matthews 4 0 0   0 24 17 208 12.2 4 44.8 11.2
15 Amari Cooper 4 0 0   0 41 32 387 12.1 1 44.7 11.2
16 Russell Shepard 2 0 0   0 9 7 101 14.4 2 22.1 11.1
17 J.J. Nelson 3 3 27 9 0 21 13 179 13.8 2 32.6 10.9
18 Donte Moncrief 2 1 -1 -1 0 15 7 96 13.7 2 21.5 10.8
19 Ty Montgomery 3 19 119 6.3 0 28 23 202 8.8 0 32.1 10.7
20 Robert Woods 3 1 6 6 0 26 19 256 13.5 1 32.2 10.7
21 Kendall Wright 4 1 15 15 0 23 16 293 18.3 2 42.8 10.7
22 Terrelle Pryor 4 1 3 3 0 37 22 241 11 3 42.5 10.6
23 Antonio Brown 3 2 19 9.5 0 30 18 230 12.8 1 30.9 10.3
24 Jordy Nelson 4 0 0   0 33 17 265 15.6 2 38.5 9.6
25 Dez Bryant 2 0 0   0 18 5 132 26.4 1 19.2 9.6

The last four weeks show Odell Beckham Jr Jr, Mike Evans, A.J. Green, Julio Jones and then Kenny Britt rounding out the Top 5 wide receivers. Britt's three touchdowns put him into this range. Mike Wallace is sixth after a strong last three games. Surprisingly, Wallace is tied for 13th overall this season with the arguably more popular Michael Thomas, who finds himself 7th in the last four weeks. 

Another interesting turn of events is the rise of Golden Tate (9th in FP/game over the last four weeks) vs. 104th in weeks 1-4, where many decided to drop him outright. Both Tate and Jamison Crowder have ascended into fantasy relevance over the last four weeks and it doesn't look like it will change anytime soon. Tate has tripled Marvin Jones Jr in receptions 32-10 in that span and is firmly the top receiving threat for the Lions heading into their bye this week. It wasn't long ago that Jones was the #1 fantasy receiver. 

Randall Cobb, Cole Beasley and Davante Adams have also come on strong recently, each with three touchdowns over the last four weeks (Adams the only one who played 4 games). 

Falling in the ranks lately is Michael Crabtree, 35th in FP/gm after being a Top 10 wide receiver in the first quarter of the season. Crabtree has two strong games and two weak ones in the last four week span with only one touchdown scored. Amari Cooper has been more efficent, catching 78% of targets thrown his way, while Crabtree has a much lower 54% reception percentage. One big game will bump Crabtree right back into the mix, and there's not enough doubt to expect he'll see a drop off in targets. Cooper has done more with his opportunities recently and that's why he's ahead at this time. 

Tight End

Rank Player G TD Targ Rec RecYd Yd/Rec TD FantPt FantPt/G
1 Rob Gronkowski 3 0 20 16 364 22.8 3 54.4 18.1
2 Jordan Reed 1 0 13 9 99 11 1 15.9 15.9
3 Jason Witten 3 0 21 14 192 13.7 2 31.2 10.4
4 Jimmy Graham 4 0 32 22 279 12.7 2 39.9 10
5 C.J. Fiedorowicz 3 0 21 16 163 10.2 2 28.3 9.4
6 Vernon Davis 3 0 15 13 222 17.1 1 28.2 9.4
7 Jack Doyle 4 0 26 20 228 11.4 2 34.8 8.7
8 Delanie Walker 4 0 24 17 222 13.1 2 34.5 8.6
9 Tyler Eifert 2 0 14 10 111 11.1 1 17.1 8.6
10 Eric Ebron 2 0 18 14 171 12.2 0 17.1 8.6
11 Coby Fleener 4 1 19 15 196 13.1 1 31.8 8
12 Lance Kendricks 3 0 29 19 179 9.4 1 23.9 8
13 Greg Olsen 3 0 17 12 157 13.1 1 21.7 7.2
14 Antonio Gates 4 0 34 16 162 10.1 2 28.2 7.1
15 Cameron Brate 3 0 14 11 94 8.5 2 21.4 7.1
16 Travis Kelce 4 0 23 17 215 12.6 1 27.5 6.9
17 Vance McDonald 3 0 14 6 133 22.2 1 19.3 6.4
18 Hunter Henry 3 0 15 9 113 12.6 1 17.3 5.8
19 Levine Toilolo 4 0 7 5 106 21.2 2 22.6 5.7
20 Zach Miller 3 0 25 15 164 10.9 0 16.4 5.5

Rob Gronkowski and Jordan Reed lead the way with Jason Witten a surprising 3rd and Jimmy Graham 4th. Witten's huge Week 9 that saw him collect 8 receptions for 134 yards and a touchdown put him into the Top 3 for fantasy points per game. Reed has only played one game over the last four weeks, but his 9-99-1 performance in Week 8 against Cincinnati is enough to put him among the best tight ends heading into the third quarter of the season. 

C.J. Fiedorowicz has at least 7 targets in each of the last four games with two scores in the last three games. Tyler Eifert is down in the ranks in this span, but he only played two games with one being a ramp-up game. His last game, against Washington, Eifert rose to the occasion with 9 receptions for 102 yards and a touchdown. Expect to see more positive results from Eifert in the third quarter of the season as he gets acclimated after being out with injuries for most of the year. 

After a roaring start to 2016, Greg Olsen has slowed down recently catching only 6 passes in the last two games, but he did score a touchdown. I don't expect that to continue, but I also am a bit leery considering him a Top 3 tight end like he was in the first quarter of the season. 

Eric Ebron has come on strong lately and looks to be fully healed from a knee/ankle injury that hampered his availability and production ealrier in the season. Ebron has 7 catches in each of the last two games with 79 and 92 yards respectively. If he can keep up that pace and find the end zone once or twice, he'll creep right into the Top 5 or 6. 

 

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com


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