Footballguys Staff Mock Draft 13, 12-team FPC format, Best Ball

Cian Fahey - slot 4

Overall Strategy:

Go hard after top RBs that catch passes, and stack up on a couple solid TEs to take advantage of the extra half point for receptions.

Best Pick: LeSean McCoy RB Buf – Pick 3.04. McCoy gives Fahey three of the top ten fantasy backs in this format. With the release of Karlos Williams, McCoy looks even better as the feature back in Buffalo this season. Adding him to the Todd Gurley – Devonta Freeman backfield was a great choice.

Worst Pick: Vincent Jackson WR TB – Pick 10.09. By loading up on RB and TE, it was expected that Fahey was going to suffer at WR. I doubt he expected that Vincent Jackson would be his #2 option though.  Jackson’s best days are behind him, and his upside probably keeps his upside in the 4th tier of fantasy WRS. Fahey is going to need Jackson to produce every week though. Not a great place to be.

daniel simpkins - slot 5

Overall Strategy:

Load up on WR with your first 10 picks, and then look for value / upside late at RB.

Best Pick: Russell Wilson QB SEA – Pick 6.08. Wilson give a boost to the QB position with his rushing yards and touchdowns. He has a decent shot to finish as a top five fantasy QB this season. Landing him at 6.08 is good value.

Worst Pick: Dion Lewis RB NEP – Pick 5.05. This seems like an easy pick to hammer because some guys missed the note on Lewis needing a second surgery. What makes this an especially tough pick though is that Simpkins didn’t add another RB to his team for another seven rounds. Lewis should be back at some point this season, so this pick isn’t a total loss, but not supplementing it with some additional RBs means at least 1 RB position will hold this team back each week.

1. Now that we are a few weeks into the preseason, who are some players that you find yourself targeting more? Share why others should do the same.

Let me preface my target player selections by saying I got virtually none of them in this draft. The rest of the Footballguys were “on point” in this mock, so much so that I feel I may have had my worst Footballguys draft to date! Not only were players I had in the crosshairs commonly coming off the board just ahead of my pick, I underestimated how quickly the viable running back pool would dry up. My corps were thin even before the Dion Lewis surgery news broke the next day. Now I will have to hope for an early injury to an incumbent starter to even have a chance at competing in this league. Well played, fellow Footballguys!

Ted Ginn Jr. is the quintessential best ball receiver going much later than he should. It seems Benjamin returning to the lineup and Funchess’ development is pushing his value down. The fact remains his deep threat role in the offense is still intact. While he’ll deliver some disappointing weeks, you have other players to cover those valleys. When Newton hooks up with him on deep touchdown passes (which has already happened in preseason) every few weeks, he’ll finish among the top scorers. He’s going in the mid-16th in most MFL10’s, but Jeff Haseley swiped him a round early in our draft.

One of my target players that I did manage to snag was Virgil Green. When it comes to the Broncos, I trust Cecil Lammey implicitly. He’s telling us on the Audible podcast that Green is the one making plays in camp. We saw Green featured heavily in the second preseason game, which validates what Cecil is saying. We also know that Kubiak’s system is one that prefers to emphasize a tight end in the passing game. On top of that, the quarterback situation is a mess. Mark Sanchez really isn’t playing well in practices or preseason games. It’s becoming increasingly likely that we’ll see either Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch starting in week one. Inexperienced quarterbacks find that the tight end can become a trusted safety valve when the pass rush pressure is bearing down. They’ll undoubtedly be looking to him often and he has the athleticism and receiving skills to make the linebackers covering him look silly in the way that Thomas did during his breakout year. Remember, it sometimes takes tight ends until later in their career to find their groove, especially when they’ve been blocked on the depth chart for years at a time. In the case of Green, it’s been Julius Thomas and Owen Daniels who have been in the way. I fully expect him to come into his own and matter for fantasy teams this year.

2. Who are some players that you find yourself avoiding?  Share why others should take caution.

Sammie Coates is one best ball receiver I feel is vastly overrated. The suspension of Martavis Bryant opening the door and the steady drum beat of camp positivity pushed his best ball ADP way up to the ninth round. Nothing he has done in preseason to date has given me confidence that his hands and ball tracking ability are developing.

Matt Forte is a player that I just can’t get down with picking in any format at his current price. I feel that Bilal Powell is a superior runner to Forte at this stage in his career. Forte also showed us in Chicago that he’s just not effective at the goal line. I see Powell being the one who is called upon for short-yardage touchdown snaps. Forte has been dealing with a nagging hamstring injury through camp, another strike against the 30-year-old runner.

Thomas Rawls is dead to me at his fifth-round price. Not only do I believe Seattle is going to a committee approach with their running back group, I also really see Christine Michael as the more valuable part of that committee. Make fun of Michael for his prior immaturity all you like -- however rare it may be, people do change. Getting bounced around the league for a year and realizing that he had one last real shot seems to have been the wake-up call he needed. He’s displaying humility in his media interactions and running with urgency in the preseason. He’s making the needed transformation from the entitled heir apparent to Marshawn Lynch to a man who understands the reality that nothing is a given in the NFL. As great as Rawls was filling in for Lynch last year, he’s just not the physical talent that Michael is. Michael's 14th-round best ball ADP is sure to keep moving up, but for now, his price makes a whole lot more sense to me than that of Rawls.

3. What specific strengths are you looking for out of your defense(s) in a best ball league? Is there any strategy involved in picking defenses?

In best ball formats, I tend to gravitate toward adding two or three defenses later that have explosive potential on any given week, but will probably not be a consistent top scorer. Though I don’t feel I did many things right in Draft #13, I do feel like I nailed my defensive selections. Cincinnati could struggle when they face high-octane offenses such as the Steelers, Cowboys, and Patriots; but they should have some dominant performances against teams like the Ravens, Broncos, and Eagles.  The Dolphins are a bit of an underrated unit. Their front three will be one of the league’s best with Mario Williams and Ndamukong Suh at the point of attack. They will only catch the Patriots with Tom Brady once in the season and have particularly juicy matchups against the Titans, Bills, and 49ers. Jacksonville’s defense is much improved on paper and, though I don’t believe they’ll enter the elite ranks any time soon, their boom weeks could be rather large.

John Mamula - slot 6

Overall Strategy:

Pound the WR and RB position right out of the gate. Secure a solid TE early and fade the QB position.

Best Pick: Jarvis Landry WR Mia – Pick 3.06. Big value here in the middle of the third. Landry is easily the best WR on the Dolphins this season, and he could be a top ten fantasy WR in a PPR format. Landing him as his #3 receiver gives John a great group of guys to build his team around.

Worst Pick: DeMarco Murray RB TEN – Pick 5.06. Murray showed that much of his success in Dallas was due to the big offensive line. He flamed out in Philadelphia and now starts on his third team in the last three seasons. Add in the log-jam of potential competition at the RB position, and taking Murray as your top RB pick is a risk.

Evaluation: Mamula faded the QB position, but still landed a decent group with Eli Manning, Marcus Mariota and Brock Osweiler. While Mariota and Osweiler won’t light the world on fire this year, they will start every game and the best ball format takes care of which of these three will do the best in any given week. That left him to focus hard on his WR and RB, and he loaded up at those position with nine of his first ten picks. His RBs are a little weak, but should still play enough to give him a point base each week. This team should be competitive each week.

jeff haseley - slot 7

Overall Strategy:

Balanced attack, looking for value at every position. Secure a top QB and then pound value everywhere.

Best Pick: Coby Fleener TE NO – Pick 5.07. Fleener isn’t going to directly step into Jimmy Graham’s numbers, but he’s going to be a big receiving threat on a team that likes to throw to the TE position. Ben Watson did OK last season, but Fleener has a chance to really turn it up. He could be a top 3 TE in a 1.5 PPR TE bonus league and landing him in the 5th round was big value.

Worst Pick: Jeremy Maclin WR KC – Pick 3.07. Maclin is not a bad pick, especially in a best ball league, but he is a bit of a reach in the middle of the 3rd round. Jarvis Landry went just before this pick and Demaryius Thomas was drafted six picks later. Maclin is really a known quantity. A solid pick with a high floor, but lower ceiling too. In a best ball league, it might have been better to take a guy who has a bigger upside like Randall Cobb or Thomas.

Matt Bitonti - Slot 8

Overall Strategy:

Fade the QB position, grab two TEs early and grab some big upside WRs.

Best Pick: Michael Floyd WR ARI – Pick 6.05.  Floyd is poised to take over the #1 receiver spot in Arizona this season. Even if he doesn’t finish as the team’s top WR, Floyd is going to have a big season. Even more impressive for Floyd is that he had some big games last season, posting five games with more than 100 yards receiving during the seven games between week 8 and week 16. These are the most critical parts of a fantasy season, and in a best ball format, it makes Floyd a great pick.

Worst Pick: Delanie Walker TE TEN – Pick 3.08. Walker was only the 3rd TE taken in this draft, and he was drafted in the 3rd round while guys like Coby Fleener, Greg Olsen and Travis Kelce were still on the board.  Maybe Bitonti is higher on Walker than most people, but no other tight ends were taken before Matt picked in the 4th round as well. He could have gotten a much better RB or WR with this pick and held out for Walker at least one more round if not more.

Overall Strategy:

Pound the WR position right out of the gate, and fade the TE position, despite the TE bonus points for receiving.

Best Pick: Ezekiel Elliot RB Dal – Pick 2.04. Ari landed a potential top five fantasy RB in the second round. That’s huge value, especially in a league that requires you to start at least two every week. Pairing Elliot with Dez Bryant puts a little more faith in the Cowboys than Ari probably wanted, but finding Elliot at 2.04 was too good to pass up.

Worst Pick: Jimmy Graham TE SEA – Pick 13.09. Even mega-Seahawk fan Matt Waldman will admit that Jimmy Graham isn’t even close to the fantasy TE that he was back in his days with the Saints. Graham was lost to the fantasy wasteland when he moved to Seattle, and his upside is very very low. Yet Ari faded the TE position, and took Graham as his first pick, despite the extra bonus points for TE receptions. Ouch.

Chris Feery - Slot 10

Overall Strategy:

Balanced attack at the RB/WR position for the start of the draft. Land a decent QB and don’t worry about having a serviceable TE squad.

Best Pick: C.J. Anderson RB DEN – Pick 4.03. People are a bit scared of Anderson this season because of the questions around the role of rookie Devontae Booker and the big question mark at QB. Anderson should see a lot of action this season, and he’s a top 10 pick in a PPR league. In a best ball format, Anderson is a great pick because even if Booker cuts into Anderson’s carries for a few games, Anderson will still auto-start when he is the main focus. He’s also going to catch a lot of passes out of the backfield, and the Broncos will need to check down or swing out to help take the pressure off of Mark Sanchez.

Worst Pick: Golden Tate WR DET – Pick 3.10. Tate was the 20th WR taken in this draft, and was a bit of a reach with a 3rd round pick. Tate is the presumptive #1 WR in Detroit with Calvin Johnson out of the way, but that doesn’t mean Tate is going to instantly become a top 5 WR. With guys like Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Larry Fitzgerald still on the board, Tate was a bit of a reach in the 3rd round, especially in a 1.5 PPR TE bonus league.

1. What strategies do you use knowing you won't be able to make any in-season adjustments to your team?

That’s what makes best ball leagues so challenging, but also a big part of what makes them so fun. I’m looking to construct a roster of consistent and reliable performers that can also have the monster game from time to time. That’s easier said than done, and sometimes you have to take some risks to find the monster games. I’ll take some of that risk in the form of rookies that I’m personally high on for the upcoming season. The consistency part presents its own set of challenges, but I tend to rely on players that have been within the same scheme for quite awhile. There are exceptions to that rule as well - i.e. a new workhorse back on a projected run-heavy team, but I generally prefer players that are familiar with their surroundings. In short, I want a strong core roster of two strong backs and two strong receivers. From that point, I’ll let the chips fall where they may and take some risks where appropriate.     

2. If you could dominate any one position in a best ball league, what would it be and why?

Wide Receiver. Quite simply, it’s a great time to be a receiver in the NFL. The rules favor the passing game, and even the most conservative of coaches will take their share of deep strikes during the course of an average game. We need to look no further than the current top players based on ADP to see how that translates into the world of fantasy. Ideally, you’ll walk away with one of the stud receivers in the first round, but you can still walk away with plenty of strength at the position in the event things don’t break your way. By having a clear sense of target volume and the expected productivity of the offense as a whole, I’m able to pinpoint the value in each tier of receivers with a good level of accuracy. If one of the receivers on my wish list is staring me in the face when it’s my turn to pick, there’s a pretty good chance I’m pulling the trigger if my roster composition at that point permits such a move.

3. Would you rather have youth and high potential or experience and high floor on your team for a best ball league?

I lean towards experience and a high floor to form the bulk of my roster, and balance that out with a few high-upside younger players that have a shot at a breakout in the upcoming season. Ideally, I’m walking away with a roster that’s roughly about 80% on the experienced and predictable side, and 20% on the speculative side. A roster that goes too heavy on rookies is a little too boom-bust for my taste, while a roster that completely shuts them out may be missing out on some massive upside for rookies that are in excellent situations to produce right off the bat. The 80/20 mix provides the best of both worlds, and is generally my goal whenever I enter a best ball draft.  

Overall Strategy:

Go big at TE and then balance the RB and WR positions. Load up on ‘less popular’ picks, taking advantage of the best ball format to flush out the value.

Best Pick: Rob Gronkowski TE NE – Pick 1.11. Gronk isn’t a particularly ‘gutsy’ pick at 1.11, and in a 1.5 PPR for TE league, he’s definitely worth the first round pick. But you have to admire taking a TE right out of the gate and building your team around him. Jordan Reed was the second TE taken, and he didn’t go until pick 3.02. Alex was the only guy thinking TE this early and it’s a bold statement to plant your flag on a TE in round 1.

Worst Pick: Eddie Lacy RB GB – Pick 3.11. In fairness to Alex, this is as much a personal choice as anything else. Lacy’s ADP and projections make landing him at 3.11 a value pick in a lot of respects, but I just can’t get excited about him in a PPR format. He’s not a big contributor in the passing game, and if he repeats his 750 yards rushing like he did last year, this is going to look like a wasted pick. With guys like CJ Anderson still on the board, I’d much rather have taken a pass catching back over Lacy as my first RB.

Justin Howe - slot 12

Overall Strategy:

Load up on WRs and TEs, and fade the QB and RB position. Handcuff Le’Veon Bell with DeAngelo Williams.

Best Pick: DeAngelo Williams RB PIT – Pick 8.01. Going with Bell at the end of round 1 was a risk because Bell is going to miss the first three weeks of the season. But Howe wisely added Williams at the top of the 8th round, taking care of those first three weeks and any other time that Bell might miss due to injury.

Worst Pick: Andy Dalton QB Cin – Pick 11.12. Fading a QB in this format is pretty common, but Howe took it to a new extreme. The best ball format helps you auto-start your best QB when you take a QBBC approach, but you usually like at least 1 QB to be in the top 12. Dalton is projected as the 15th best fantasy QB this season, Joe Flacco is ranked significantly lower. Taking Dalton as your first QB is a huge risk.