Ten members of the Footballguys DraftKings staff compiled value-based rankings for Week 2 of the NFL Playoffs. Those results are shown below with the highest ranking at the top. Each position is ranked as follows: (A dash indicates that player was not ranked).
Quarterback - Top 8
Running Back - Top 12
Wide Receiver - Top 12
Tight End - Top 8
Defense - Top 5
To determine the average ranking, any player not ranked received a value of the lowest rank for that position, plus 1 (LR+1). For example, the Top 8 quarterbacks are ranked by each staff member. If one staff member did not rank a particular quarterback, but others did, the ranking for that quarterback is 8+1 or 9. Instead of displaying a 9 in the table, a dash is used to show that player was not ranked, after average rank was obtained.
The value-based, collaborative results provide a window into which players are the best options for this week's slate of games. I'll explain why certain players are ranked as they are and also provide additional commentary volunteered by various staff members.
DRAFTKINGS CONSENSUS RANKINGS: QUARTERBACK
|Russell Wilson||SEA||at ATL||6900||1||3||3||3||5||6||3||3||3||3||3.3|
|Aaron Rodgers||GB||at DAL||8200||2||4||2||4||6||4||5||5||4||4||4.0|
|Ben Roethlisberger||PIT||at KC||6500||6||8||6||5||4||5||7||7||7||5||6.0|
|Brock Osweiler||HOU||at NE||5000||8||7||8||8||8||8||8||8||8||8||7.9|
The consensus is high on Dak Prescott ($6,000) this week. His low price is appealing considering this game is the highest point total for oddsmakers in Vegas at 52.5 over/under. Dallas alone has a team total of 28.5 points. Prescott is at his best when he can command the offense with ball control and timely passes when it counts. That most likely will be the game plan against Aaron Rodgers and the potent Packers offense. Rodgers is $2,200 more in price and this game could come down to the wire. The shark move appears to be the cheaper Prescott.
Russell Wilson ($6,900) and Matt Ryan ($7,000) are #2 and #3 on the rankings this week. They will play each other in the second highest projected scoring total of the week, 51.5 points. In the previous game against Atlanta in Week 6, Wilson had 270 yards passing with 0 touchdowns. The Seattle ground game took over, scoring three touchdowns. I have a feeling Wilson will come alive for this battle. We already heard that he plans to shed his knee brace this week. We may see him have more freedom to run, which also increases his value. Ryan threw for over 300 yards with three scores in the earlier meeting at Seattle. He also has the home advantage here and is only $100 more than Wilson. Both are excellent options this week and will likely have a high ownership percentage. Picking the right one could be the difference in cashing or not cashing. My gut says Wilson is the better play. I like his matchup against Atlanta more than I do Ryan against Seattle's defense. Wilson has been clutch in big games before and this definitely qualifies as a big game. If the yardage is there, he'll produce. I don't see Atlanta slowing down the passing game.
Dak Prescott - He brings the week's best value as a cheap play against the Packers' ultra-leaky secondary.
Alex Smith - The Steelers are often done in by short, efficient passing, which is all Smith can really do. With YAC weapons at his disposal, he could be an absolute steal.
Dak Prescott - The Packers are a dream matchup for quarterbacks. Prescott has a 25+ point ceiling and will be a forgotten man with all the star quarterbacks on this slate.
Aaron Rodgers - Over 300 yards with four touchdowns in three straight games. He's the highest priced quarterback for a reason.
Dak Prescott - It pains me to say this, but Dak is the play of the week
Alex Smith - Pricing is a bit tighter than normal this week, so saving on a QB makes sense
Ben Roetlhisberger - He's going to be highly owned but is a) hurt, b) on the road, c) the O/U implies a low scoring game
Dak Prescott - The rookie will find some success against the Packers secondary, and his low price affords you a ton of flexibility.
Dak Prescott - Great price point vs. an exploitable Packers secondary
DRAFTKINGS CONSENSUS RANKINGS: running back
|Le'Veon Bell||PIT||at KC||10500||3||4||2||2||2||1||8||2||3||4||3.1|
|Thomas Rawls||SEA||at ATL||6900||9||6||5||10||5||2||11||7||6||6||6.7|
|Ty Montgomery||GB||at DAL||5300||8||8||6||4||6||12||9||10||8||7||7.8|
|Lamar Miller||HOU||at NE||5600||10||11||8||7||10||5||7||9||9||10||8.6|
|Christine Michael||GB||at DAL||4300||12||-||12||12||-||11||12||-||12||11||12.1|
|DeAngelo Williams||PIT||at KC||3200||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||11||-||-||12.8|
|Aaron Ripkowski||GB||at DAL||3200||-||-||-||-||12||-||-||-||-||-||12.9|
|Alex Collins||SEA||at ATL||3500||-||12||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||12.9|
Leveon Bell was a man among boys last week and many weeks this year. Can he do it again, on the road aganst a tough defense in Kansas City? You're betting he can if you invest the $10,500 it costs to pencil him into your lineup. A road game with a tough matchup may be too much for my taste, which may be why he's the #3 ranked value running back this week.
Topping Bell this week is Ezekiel Elliott ($8,500) and Devonta Freeman ($5,900). Both have home games and will be key pieces to their team's offense. Elliott has not had a game this year where he didn't either score or reach 100 total yards. He produces consistent numbers every week and is an excellent value at $8,500 considering Bell is $2,000 more. Freeman may not be as consistent as Elliott, but he's capable of a big game any given week. At $5,900 his price affords you to pay up elsewhere and still have a capable back who could reach paydirt and get you much needed receptions in the DraftKings scoring format.
Spencer Ware ($5,200) is along the lines of Devonta Freeman-lite and is slightly less in price. If you can't fit Freeman into your cap, consider Ware who is $700 cheaper. He can get you scores and good rushing/receiving numbers, plus he'll be playing at home where running backs have proven to thrive in the playoffs. LeGarrette Blount ($5,800) is someone who may not have a high ownership percentage, but could see multiple touchdowns, especially if New England leans on the ground game this week against Houston. Blount is dealing with flu symptoms in the early part of the week so monitor his health before gametime to be sure he's 100%.
Dion Lewis ($3,900) is a cheap back to consider. We all know New England can be tricky with their running game, particularly who gets the majority of the touches based on the matchup and what the defense allows. Lewis came on strong at the end of the year and showed that he's over his knee injury and can be relied upon when his number is called. If his number is called this week, he's a bargain at only $3,900.
Tevin Coleman - The dual threat could easily out-value Devonta Freeman, who should be largely bottled up at the line. Two or three splash plays and a touchdown could make Coleman the weekend's top value.
Dion Lewis - New England broke Lewis in over the final three games of the season, feeding him an average of about 16.5 touches per game. LeGarrette Blount should finish the Texans off, but Lewis will likely get the blowout started.
Spencer Ware - We like running backs on home favorites and Ware comes at a significant discount compared to the rest of the starters on the slate. Should be well rested after sitting out Week 17 and the bye.
Lamar Miller - The strength of New England's defense is the rush, Miller has been mostly inefficient this season, and he's likely to face the worst possible game script for a running back.
Le'Veon Bell - Kansas City has the 26th ranked rush defense (DVOA). The Steelers offense may not be in great spot collectively, but Bell is immune to negative game script.
LeGarrette Blount - If ever there were an implied Vegas script that pointed to a Blount game...
Thomas Rawls - Rawls' monster wild card game is reflected in his price, but the Falcons are a great matchup. If you believe Seattle wins in Atlanta, Rawls is a must-play.
Le'Veon Bell - Chiefs allowing 4.4 YPC in the regular season but don't give up many TDs
James White - Patriots should spread the ball around in this game
Spencer Ware - He's half the price of Bell, is a workhorse, playing at home, against a suspect defense
Le'Veon Bell - The price is massive, but so too is the upside
LeGarrette Blount - Assumes he's a full go (currently labeled as questionable)
Dion Lewis - Super high risk, high reward flier. Ideal for differentiated GPP lineups
Devonta Freeman - Seahawks will not slow down the Falcons too much on their home turf, and Freeman should be able to make some noise.
Tevin Coleman - Coleman has scored 8 touchdowns in his 13 games this season. He has sneaky upside in GPPs this week.
Devonta Freeman - Freeman has 10 home TDs as compared to 1 TD on the road
LeGarrette Blount - Positive game script for the NFL's TD leader. 105 yds and 2 TDs last time he played Hou
DRAFTKINGS CONSENSUS RANKINGS: wide receiver
|Davante Adams||GB||at DAL||7000||1||1||1||3||1||2||4||4||1||1||1.9|
|Antonio Brown||PIT||at KC||9600||3||8||4||4||4||6||-||2||3||4||5.1|
|Randall Cobb||GB||at DAL||5700||6||7||11||5||3||-||2||3||4||9||6.3|
|Doug Baldwin||SEA||at ATL||8100||5||6||6||9||5||5||-||6||5||6||6.6|
|DeAndre Hopkins||HOU||at NE||5800||4||9||10||7||11||7||-||-||9||8||9.1|
|Paul Richardson Jr||SEA||at ATL||4100||11||12||-||-||9||9||9||-||11||-||11.3|
|Will Fuller V||HOU||at NE||3600||-||5||-||11||-||-||12||12||12||-||11.7|
|Eli Rogers||PIT||at KC||3900||-||-||12||10||-||10||10||-||-||11||11.8|
|Jermaine Kearse||SEA||at ATL||3300||-||-||-||-||-||-||3||-||-||-||12.0|
|Geronimo Allison||GB||at DAL||3900||-||-||-||12||-||12||-||5||-||-||12.0|
With Jordy Nelson looking doubtful for this game, Davante Adams ($7,000) and Randall Cobb ($5,700) will see an increase in targets and opportunities. Aaron Rodgers has thrown for four touchdowns in three consecutive games. He's hot right now and his receiver playmakers are cashing in with big games.
Another receiver to look at includes Dez Bryant ($6,600) who seems underpriced considering the opponent and his history in the second half of the season. Since Week 8 Bryant has 7 touchdowns and didn't play Week 17. He has at least 70 yards receiving or a score in 7 of the last 9 games. He's someone who could light up your lineup with a big game that isn't too expensive at only $6,600.
Antonio Brown ($9,600) and Julio Jones ($8,400) are two high-talent receivers with the potential to put up good numbers for us this weekend. Brown is coming off a big wildcard game with two scores and 100+ yards. In Week 4 against Kansas City he also had two scores. Pittsburgh will look to throw to their prized receiver and they have the offense to produce against the toughest of opponents. Jones has the benefit of playing at home, but Seattle is not a defense that will allow opposing receivers to run rampant on them. Atlanta averages over 30 points per game at home and Jones is considered matchup-proof. He's someone to target, especially if you expect a shootout to occur. The Vegas over/under is 51.5, so it's safe to say the oddsmakers think it will be a close game with both teams putting up strong point totals.
Julian Edelman ($6,800), Doug Baldwin ($8,100) and Jeremy Maclin are next on the rankings list. New England is not known for calling off the dogs if the point margin rises. With that in mind, Edelman is a player who could see consistent targets all game long, especially in the first half. Baldwin is Russell Wilson's top target this year and the matchup against Atlanta is favorable. A multiple touchdown game is not far-fetched.Jeremy Maclin has 6, 3, and 4 receptions in the last three games. There's a chance he could be a reliable target for Alex Smith where he could see over five receptions, especially if the Chiefs need to overcome a deficit. I envision a close game that may not be as high scoring as the last outing, that Pittsburgh won 43-14.
Terrance Williams - Williams should be able to get behind Green Bay's dismal secondary for a big play or two while the Packers focus defensive attention on Dez Bryant. At $100 over the min-price, Williams offers 6x upside and considerable salary relief.
Randall Cobb - Jordy Nelson is almost assuredly out, which means more targets for Cobb. Expecting another three touchdown game would be foolish, but Cobb is cheap and Dallas has struggled to defend slot receivers this year (including Cobb who went 7-53-1 against them in Week 6).
Jermaine Kearse - Atlanta allowed 45% more fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers than the league average over the last five weeks of the regular season. Like Williams, his upside is 6x his salary.
Davante Adams - Gets a bump with Jordy sidelined -- high touchdown probability.
Julian Edelman - Edelman will lead the division round in targets and it won't be close.
Dez Bryant - Dez is a solid bet to abuse Green Bay's depleted secondary and is still relatively affordable.
Davante Adams - He'll be the chalk play at this price, with Nelson out
Will Fuller V - Call it gut, but I see Fuller as being a potential GPP winning asset this week
Doug Baldwin - His price is higher than I would like, or he would rank higher
Randall Cobb - 3 TDs will inflate his ownership, so better to fade but not completely
Davante Adams - Adams will see a plethora of targets this week, and the Cowboys have shown some leaks in the secondary.
Dez Bryant - Great price point at $6,600 on DK. Will be throwing up the "X" in the end zone at least once this weekend
Tyreek Hill - If Hill gets in the open field, the Steelers aren't catching him
DRAFTKINGS CONSENSUS RANKINGS: tight end
|Jared Cook||GB||at DAL||3900||7||5||6||2||5||3||2||2||4||2||3.8|
|Jimmy Graham||SEA||at ATL||4900||5||1||4||4||4||5||4||4||5||4||4.0|
|C.J. Fiedorowicz||HOU||at NE||3600||4||4||5||5||1||6||6||6||6||6||4.9|
|Jesse James||PIT||at KC||2800||-||7||9||9||7||-||7||7||7||-||7.7|
|Ryan Griffin||HOU||at NE||2600||6||-||-||7||9||9||-||9||9||9||8.2|
The consensus is high on Jason Witten ($3,500) at home vs. Green Bay. Witten is the perfect receiver for Dak Prescott if Dallas is aiming for a ball-controlled game and high percentage pass attempts and routes run. Dez Bryant (and Ezekiel Elliott) may be the front-runners in the red zone, but Witten will command a lot of touches between the 20's. The value is almost too good to pass up.
Travis Kelce ($6,100) has taken a big step forward this year and is the clear top option in the receiving game for Alex Smith and the Chiefs. Green Bay's secondary is a known weak spot that undoubtedly will be exploited. Look for Kelce to put up big numbers, especially if he starts off strong in the first half.
Other options to consider include Martellus Bennett ($4,000) and Jared Cook ($3,900). Bennett has been dealing with lingering ankle issues for most of the season, however the bye week off most definitely helped him recover and recouperate to hopefully full strength. New England's potent offense has been known to use Bennett in several different ways. He is one to consider this week as a tight end who could pay big divdends. Jared Cook may see more targets, especially if Jordy Nelson is going to be out. Cook has come on strong at the end of the season and has earned the targets that are coming his way (third most on the team since Week 14).
Martellus Bennett - Bennett is priced appropriately and carries as strong a chance to catch a touchdown as any Patriot.
Jason Witten - Another undervalued piece of the Dallas passing game, Witten easily has 4x in his range of outcomes.
Jared Cook - Dallas was eviscerated by tight ends over the last five weeks of the season, giving up 335% more fantasy points per game to the position than the league average.
Jimmy Graham - This year's cumulative TE1 is well worth paying up for in a plus home matchup.
Ryan Griffin - TD dependent but will be low owned, thus gives you needed differentiation
Jason Witten - The masses will flock to Kelce, but I'll save some money and bank on the Cowboys passing game having some nice upside on this short slate.
Travis Kelce - The top option at TE and it's not that close
DRAFTKINGS CONSENSUS RANKINGS: defense
The consensus is unanimously in favor of New England ($4,000) at home vs. Houston as the defense play of the week. The Patriots are favored by more than two touchdowns and there is no other standout play to compete with. New England shut out Houston earlier in the season with Jacoby Brissett under center. It would be a giant upset if Houston is competitive. I'm expecting plenty of turnover opportunities especially if New England makes Houston one-dimensional. They are the chalk play this week and will be highly owned.
If you elect to go a different route other than New England, hoping for a defensive score or special teams play, take a look at Kansas City ($3,400). They are at home, where their crowd will be behind them. Ben Roethlisberger is dealing with a sore foot/ankle and Tyreek Hill looms as a punt returner who can do damage anytime he touches the ball.
New England - Most expensive, but worth it vs. struggling Texans
New England - No need to overthink this one, the Patriots will have a field day with Osweiler.
New England - The Patriots defense will be the chalk this week
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to firstname.lastname@example.org
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