Ten members of the Footballguys DraftKings staff compiled value-based rankings for Week 11 of the NFL season. Those results are shown below with the highest ranking at the top. Each position is ranked as follows: (A dash indicates that player was not ranked).
Quarterback - Top 8
Running Back - Top 12
Wide Receiver - Top 12
Tight End - Top 8
Defense - Top 5
To determine the average ranking, any player not ranked received a value of the lowest rank for that position, plus 1 (LR+1). For example, the Top 8 quarterbacks are ranked by each staff member. If one staff member did not rank a particular quarterback, but others did, the ranking for that quarterback is 8+1 or 9. Instead of displaying a 9 in the table, a dash is used to show that player was not ranked, after average rank was obtained.
The value-based, collaborative results provide a window into which players are the best options for this week's slate of games. I'll explain why certain players are ranked as they are and also provide additional commentary volunteered by various staff members.
DRAFTKINGS CONSENSUS RANKINGS: QUARTERBACK
|Marcus Mariota||TEN||at IND||6700||1||1||4||2||5||2||8||4||1||2||3.0|
|Aaron Rodgers||GB||at WAS||7600||-||8||2||7||3||3||-||5||3||5||5.4|
|Blake Bortles||JAC||at DET||5400||-||5||6||5||2||5||4||-||-||-||6.3|
|Ben Roethlisberger||PIT||at CLE||7500||3||-||5||8||6||-||-||-||5||6||6.9|
|Tom Brady||NE||at SF||7800||-||6||7||-||8||7||-||6||4||7||7.2|
|Tyrod Taylor||BUF||at CIN||5600||7||-||-||-||-||-||6||1||-||-||7.7|
|Carson Palmer||ARI||at MIN||5600||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||7||-||-||8.8|
The #1 ranking for quarterbacks this week is Kirk Cousins. At $5,800 Cosuins is a bargain with a decent matchup against Green Bay, who has been gashed by opposing quarterbacks in the last few weeks. The Packers have allowed 288-3, 281-1 and 295-4 in the last three games. If Cousins can put up similar numbers, he'll have a great deal of value with that low price tag. Also note, Cousins has 7 touchdown passes and only 2 interceptions in his last three home games.
Marcus Mariota ($6,700), Andrew Luck ($7,200) Aaron Rodgers ($7,600) and Ben Roethlisberger ($7,500) are other options. The Titans and Colts face off this week in what looks to be another high scoring affair. Each of their last five games have had this result - a high combined score with production from the quarterback position. Both Mariota and Luck are good bets to produce. The Titans have not peformed as well on the road as they have at home, but Mariota is red hot lately. His price is $500 less than Luck, but it's likely due to the points mentioned above. Luck is at home and the Colts have the edge beating the Titans in Tennessee earlier this season by the score of 34-26. Luck has not been as prolific as Mariota over the last few weeks, but in home games this year, he has only one game with less than two touchdown passes. Vegas is calling for another high scoring game with an over/under of 52.5 points. Usually that yields good results from the quarterback position, which is expected in this case.
Aaron Rodgers has totaled 3, 4, 3, and 2 touchdown passes in his last four games, flirting with or reaching 300+ yards in each contest in that span. Washington has been stingy, allowing only one game with more than one touchdown pass since Week 1. The hole in their defense has been against the run. Opposing running backs have scored 11 rushing touchdowns on them this year, including four in the last three games against DET, CIN and MIN.
Ben Roethlisberger is another option to consider. The Steelers are coming off a tough home loss to Dallas and will face division rival Cleveland on the road. It's a known understanding that Roethlisberger struggles more on the road than he does at home, but there's one glaring difference in this week's game - Cleveland has allowed a league-high 25 passing touchdowns in ten games. The Browns have allowed an opposing quarterback to reach three touchdown passes or more in six of those ten games. This is a favorable matchup for Roethlisberger and the Steelers passing game, which warrants consideration in your DraftKings lineup this week.
Alex Smith - Smith has been far from trustworthy, but before Jay Cutler's meltdown last week, Tampa allowed overall QB1 finishes to Derek Carr and Matt Ryan in their previous two games. The implied game script favors a solid game for Smith, who barely missed on at least two touchdowns to Travis Kelce last week at Carolina.
Marcus Mariota - There's been no better QB than Mariota for the last month and I'm pressing the hot hand versus a woeful Colts secondary.
Tom Brady - Brady coming off a loss against arguably the worst team in football? Yes please.
Arguably the league's hottest quarterback, Mariota is coming off of back-to-back four touchdown games and will face a mediocre Indianapolis defense in what is expected to be a shootout.
Andrew Luck - Luck carved up the Titans in Week 7 for 353 yards and 3 touchdowns. He gets them at home this time.
Marcus Mariota - Mariota has multiple passing TDs in 8 out of 10 games this season.
Tyrod Taylor is again my No. 1 this week because he simply won't stop running well. He's averging 42 yards over his last 3 games, and running from inside the 10 more than any quarterback. Even if I scale back his rushing projections, he remains a top-5 value play.
DRAFTKINGS CONSENSUS RANKINGS: running back
|Le'Veon Bell||PIT||at CLE||8800||2||1||2||1||1||2||4||2||3||4||2.2|
|LeGarrette Blount||NE||at SF||6400||3||9||1||2||7||3||-||3||1||1||4.3|
|David Johnson||ARI||at MIN||7900||1||2||7||6||6||10||11||1||6||2||5.2|
|DeMarco Murray||TEN||at IND||8200||9||5||9||9||2||8||-||12||2||9||7.8|
|LeSean McCoy||BUF||at CIN||6900||-||11||10||10||11||9||10||10||5||12||10.1|
|Jay Ajayi||MIA||at LA||6800||12||10||-||-||9||11||-||-||10||11||11.5|
|James Starks||GB||at WAS||4200||7||-||-||-||-||-||8||-||-||-||11.9|
|Ryan Mathews||PHI||at SEA||4200||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||4||-||-||12.1|
|Lamar Miller||HOU||at OAK||5800||-||-||-||-||8||-||-||-||-||-||12.5|
|Darren Sproles||PHI||at SEA||4500||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||11||-||12.8|
The Top 3 running backs in terms of value this week are Le'Veon Bell ($8,800), LeGarrette Blount ($6,400) and David Johnson ($7,900). All three are excellent choices in your DraftKings lineup. With the flex, you could conceivaby play all three for $23,100, but you'd have to reduce spending in other areas.
Bell against Cleveland is a good matchup both as a rusher and receiver. One score seems like a given, but two would most assuredly put him above 3x or even 4x value.
Blount has the bonus of playing San Francisco, who has been a runway for opposing running backs this year (although they did keep David Johnson in check last week from a rushing yardage standpoint). Blount has scored at least one touchdown in every game but one this year. That's an excellent track record and sample size that far exceeds his smaller price tag, compared to Bell and David Johnson's elite price.
David Johnson has been a consistent force all season long, but his matchup at Minnesota could limit his production this week. It's difficult to assume Johnson will be shut down, but Minnesota, even lately with defensive injuries, has done a decent job of keeping opponents from blowing up the scoreboard. The last four games (all Minnesota losses), the Vikings allowed 21, 20, 22 and 26 points. There's room for Johnson to put up respectable numbers, but don't expect a high scoring game.
Others to consider: Spencer Ware ($6,000), Frank Gore ($5,000), Theo Riddick ($5,100), Ezekiel Elliott ($8,000), DeMarco Murray ($8,200) and C.J. Prosise ($4,200). There's positive trending feelings on all of those backs. Obviously Elliott and Murray are higher priced options, but the consensus is high on both. The expectation in Seattle surrounding Thomas Rawls is that he will return this week and see 10-15 touches, thus making C.J. Prosise more of a complimentary back, contrary to his involvement and subsequent impressive performance last week. There are some who feel Prosise will continue to see a high workload and have the chance to build on his eyebrown-raising effort last week. At $4,200, that's not a bad gamble, especially in GPPs. Coach Pete Carroll has said publicly that if Rawls shows well in practice he'll see considerable touches in the game. We'll see, but right now it's Prosise, not Rawls, who has the hot hand.
C.J. Prosise - I'm not convinvced Thomas Rawls returns to a substantial workload, even if Pete Carroll says otherwise. Prosise played well in extended action against the Patriots last week and is a threat for 4-7 catches regardless of Rawls' involvement.
Frank Gore - I'm expecting around 60 total points in Titans at Colts. Gore has high touchdown probability and will be overlooked in tournaments as the crowd focuses on the Indianapolis and Tennesee passing games.
James Starks - Washington ranks as a bottom-10 unit in fantasy points allowed to running backs this season. Starks dominated snaps and scored in his first game back from injury last week. He should be the Packers lead back again in a high scoring game.
Gore has 7 TDs in his last 8 games, including 2 rushing TDS against the Packers last week
Le'Veon Bell - Bell against Cleveland is about as Chalk as it gets at RB
Theo Riddick - PPR format makes Riddick a Riddick-ulous value
Rashad Jennings - Jennings is high risk but the cost is so low he's worth a flier in GPPs
Spencer Ware is priced very fairly for the lead back in an RB-friendly offense that is a big home favorite.
Isaiah Crowell has had at least four targets in 3-of-4 games and faces a Steelers run defense that is not the same without Cam Heyward.
Frank Gore - Five straight Titans games have been shootouts and you have to like Gore's chances of finding the end zone if this game goes over 50 total points as Vegas expects.
The Browns have the worst defensive line in football, this is a get right game for the Steelers in a must win.
Ryan Mathews - I'm surprised that the chalk will likely be off of Mathews this week as he continues to battle for touches. But his efficiency - and the common-sense assumption that he remains the lead back when fully healthy - is enough reason to take such a cheap flier on his potential.
DRAFTKINGS CONSENSUS RANKINGS: wide receiver
|Eddie Royal||CHI||at NYG||3400||1||-||5||1||7||2||2||-||-||2||5.9|
|Antonio Brown||PIT||at CLE||9500||9||2||6||2||1||1||-||12||9||5||6.0|
|Cameron Meredith||CHI||at NYG||4100||2||3||1||8||5||-||-||9||3||4||6.1|
|Odell Beckham Jr||NYG||CHI||8500||11||-||10||-||4||5||-||2||5||10||8.6|
|Jordan Matthews||PHI||at SEA||5400||-||10||-||3||2||-||-||4||-||7||9.1|
|Jordy Nelson||GB||at WAS||7800||10||7||7||-||12||4||-||-||4||9||9.2|
|Julian Edelman||NE||at SF||6300||-||12||-||-||-||7||-||3||8||11||10.6|
|Larry Fitzgerald||ARI||at MIN||7100||5||11||-||-||-||6||-||-||-||6||10.6|
|Mike Evans||TB||at KC||8100||12||6||12||7||-||-||-||-||11||-||11.3|
|Robert Woods||BUF||at CIN||4900||4||-||-||-||-||-||-||8||-||-||11.6|
|Allen Robinson||JAC||at DET||7400||-||5||9||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||11.8|
|Rishard Matthews||TEN||at IND||5100||6||-||-||10||-||12||-||-||-||-||11.9|
|DeVante Parker||MIA||at LA||4100||-||-||-||-||-||-||4||-||-||-||12.1|
|Davante Adams||GB||at WAS||6700||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||5||-||-||12.2|
|Willie Snead IV||NO||at CAR||5000||-||-||-||-||-||-||5||-||-||-||12.2|
|Eli Rogers||PIT||at CLE||4300||-||-||-||-||-||-||6||-||-||-||12.3|
|Allen Hurns||JAC||at DET||4100||-||-||-||11||10||-||-||-||-||-||12.5|
|DeAndre Hopkins||HOU||at OAK||6500||-||-||-||9||-||-||-||-||-||-||12.6|
|Marqise Lee||JAC||at DET||4000||-||-||-||-||-||-||10||-||-||-||12.7|
Antonio Brown ($9,500) and A.J. Green ($8,300) are mixed in with two lower-priced Bears wide receivers Eddie Royal ($3,400) and Cameron Meredith ($4,100) in this week's Top 4 value rankings. The consensus agrees that Brown and Green are the best top-priced choices, but don't rule out Odell Beckham Jr Jr. ($8,500). The Giants have won four straight games and have done so without much of a rushing game, thus making the passing game more of factor. Chicago has allowed at least one touchdown to an opposing wide receiver in seven of their nine games, including 10 overall. If you decide to shy away from Brown or Green, Beckham is an option.
Lower-priced receivers - The Bears are in need of a wide receiver (or two) to step up in the wake of Alshon Jeffery's suspension for performance enhancing drugs. The two likely candidates to step up are Cameron Meredith ($4,100) and Eddie Royal ($3,400). Both are cheap options this week that could see a spike in production, despite catching only two passes combined last week against Tampa Bay. Meredith was on the receiving end of a hail mary touchdown pass at the end of the half in that game. Other than that, his involvement was minimal. That is expected to turn around, especially without Jeffery in the lineup.
Doug Baldwin ($5,700) and Golden Tate ($5,300) are two moderately priced receivers who have proven to be successful, especially recently. Baldwin is coming off a three-score game which is something he did twice last year. Russell Wilson is finally healthy again and he leaned heavily on Baldwin in the second half of the year in 2015. Could we see a similar result this season? So far, it's looking positive for a second half rise for Baldwin. Golden Tate has been Matthew Stafford's top target over the last four games and should continue to be a key contributor for the Lions including this week vs. Jacksonville.
Tyreek Hill ($4,500) and Robert Woods ($4,900) are two more lower-priced options that made the Top 12 among the consensus rankings. Hill is coming off a 10-catch game with 13 targets and Woods himself had 10 catches for 162 yards in his last game.
Quinton Patton - Patton had nine targets for the second consecutive game last week. He's clearly Colin Kaepernick's wide receiver of choice and as long as he remains minimum price, he's a threat for at least a 3x salary multiplier. The 49ers will be forced to throw a ton this week, and I'm expecting an above average game for Kaepernick due to the Patriots subpar pass rush.
Odell Beckham Jr Jr. - The Bears are train wreck and the Giants are making a surge. OBJ is going to go off on Chicago this week
T.Y. Hilton - Tennessee game looks like it will be a shoot-out, and Hilton and Matthews will benefit
Terrelle Pryor - The Steelers are amongst the league's worst in DVOA against opposing WR1s.
Doug Baldwin - Russell Wilson finally looks healhty and the Seattle pass offense may be primed for a big second half like it put together last season. Fresh off of three touchdowns, it makes sense to ride the hot hand with Baldwin at the sub $6k price tag.
Stefon Diggs - Diggs draws a tough matchup against Patrick Peterson, but with Diggs working out of the slot, he is still going to see 10-15 targets and catch the ball at a significant volume this week. He has been PPR gold the last two weeks
Cameron Meredith - Two Bears receivers in the top 7? This may seem crazy but their price is simply too low for them not to be considered now that Jeffrey is out with his PED suspension. The Bears are going to have to throw the ball and Royal/Meredith seem to be the targets
Davante Adams - His cost has indeed ballooned, but the production no longer looks fluky. Ty Montgomery is close to dropping out of the rotation, while Randall Cobb's usgae is fluctuating. It's left Adams and Jordy Nelson as the safest cash plays in an awesome offense for volume and touchdown opportunity.
DRAFTKINGS CONSENSUS RANKINGS: tight end
|Martellus Bennett||NE||at SF||3700||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1.0|
|Zach Miller||CHI||at NYG||3800||-||-||8||4||2||2||6||4||3||4||5.1|
|Delanie Walker||TEN||at IND||5700||5||5||4||7||5||6||-||2||-||5||5.7|
|Zach Ertz||PHI||at SEA||3200||-||6||-||-||-||-||-||6||8||-||8.3|
|Ladarius Green||PIT||at CLE||2500||-||-||-||-||-||-||3||-||-||-||8.4|
|Charles Clay||BUF||at CIN||2600||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||3||8.4|
|Cameron Brate||TB||at KC||3800||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||4||-||8.5|
|C.J. Fiedorowicz||HOU||at OAK||3300||-||-||-||-||-||-||5||-||-||-||8.6|
|Jesse James||PIT||at CLE||3400||-||-||-||-||8||-||-||-||-||-||8.9|
Martellus Bennett ($3,700) is the unanimous #1 ranking by all ten staffers. It is very unlikely that Rob Gronkowski (chest) will travel with the team and play this week. His absence would elevate Bennett and his involvement in the game at San Francisco, where New England is favored by nearly two touchdowns. At $3,700, Bennett's price is a tremendous bargain, but that also means he'll be highly owned. It will be difficult to pass up Bennett this week against the 49ers who are averaging 35 points allowed per game in their last eight games.
If you elect to go against the grain and shy away from Bennett, Jason Witten ($3,300) is enticing and cheaper than Bennett and the result could be similar. Witten has scored in two of the last three contests and is coming off back to back games of 8 and 6 receptions. His utilization in the Dak Prescott-led offense has been fairly consistent this season and he's playing well, especially recently. His price of $3,300 doesn't seem to match his expected outcome this week.
Zach Miller ($3,800), Tyler Eifert ($5,400) and Delanie Walker ($5,700) are three more options that made the Top 5 in this week's ranking. Miller is the least reliable of the three, but his price reflects that. Miller could see a decent spike in production with questions in the Bears receiving game now that Jeffery is out of the picture for the next four games. Eifert and Walker are two key players in their respective team's offense. Both have a chance of getting decent yardage and scoring opportunities this week.
Ladarius Green had a successful season debut on limited snaps last week, and the Steelers are in need of field stretchers in the passing game. 5-7 targets are in play for Green against the Browns, who have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season.
Martellus Bennett - The chalk top option with Gronkowski out
Jason Witten - The salary is way too cheap for the productivity
Martellus Bennett - If Gronkowski is out, Bennett should have a big day. He runs more routes against teams like San Francisco who do not have elite edge rushers.
Vance McDonald - The top sub-$3k option of the weekend. He has seen at least six targets in each of Kaepernick's starts and has flashed big-play ability regularly.
Tyler Eifert is the clear number 2 receiving option for the Bengals
DRAFTKINGS CONSENSUS RANKINGS: defense
|New England||NE||at SF||3600||3||4||5||-||-||-||-||-||5||-||5.3|
Miami ($2,900) has the fortunate luck of being the first team to face Jared Goff in his rookie debut. It's a road game for Miami, but the expectation is that they will be able to muster at least one or two turnovers against the rookie in his first game as a starting quarterback.
Kansas City ($3,400) is ranked second among the consensus staffers. The Chiefs have a better than average defense, and at home they are even better. The Chiefs have allowed 10, 21, 14, 14, and 17 points in their last five games. Look for them to put the clamps on Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers. Winston has tossed 10 interceptions this year and the Chiefs have the best turnover ratio in the league at +14. This is a plus matchup for the Chiefs defense.
Dallas ($2,600), Detroit ($3,200) and Seattle ($3,800) are next in this week's value rankings, but look for the majority of people to own Miami or Kansas City.
Miami Dolphins - The Jared Goff experiment begins
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to firstname.lastname@example.org
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