Ten members of the Footballguys DraftKings staff compiled value-based rankings for Week 10 of the NFL season. Those results are shown below with the highest ranking at the top. Each position is ranked as follows: (A dash indicates that player was not ranked).
Quarterback - Top 8
Running Back - Top 12
Wide Receiver - Top 12
Tight End - Top 8
Defense - Top 5
To determine the average ranking, any player not ranked received a value of the lowest rank for that position, plus 1 (LR+1). For example, the Top 8 quarterbacks are ranked by each staff member. If one staff member did not rank a particular quarterback, but others did, the ranking for that quarterback is 8+1 or 9. Instead of displaying a 9 in the table, a dash is used to show that player was not ranked, after average rank was obtained.
The value-based, collaborative results provide a window into which players are the best options for this week's slate of games. I'll explain why certain players are ranked as they are and also provide additional commentary volunteered by various staff members.
DRAFTKINGS CONSENSUS RANKINGS: QUARTERBACK
|Aaron Rodgers||GB||at TEN||7600||-||1||1||6||1||4||-||1||1||2||3.5|
|Dak Prescott||DAL||at PIT||6100||7||2||2||7||5||7||-||3||3||1||4.6|
|Jay Cutler||CHI||at TB||5300||1||8||3||2||8||-||1||-||-||4||5.4|
|Andy Dalton||CIN||at NYG||5800||2||4||-||-||7||1||-||-||-||-||6.8|
|Trevor Siemian||DEN||at NO||5600||3||-||7||-||-||3||7||-||-||7||7.2|
|Matt Ryan||ATL||at PHI||7300||-||5||-||-||3||-||-||-||6||-||7.7|
|Russell Wilson||SEA||at NE||6200||-||-||-||4||-||-||-||-||-||-||8.5|
|Ryan Tannehill||MIA||at SD||5300||-||-||6||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||8.7|
|Colin Kaepernick||SF||at ARI||5800||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||7||-||-||8.8|
|Alex Smith||KC||at CAR||5400||-||-||-||-||-||8||-||-||-||-||8.9|
Rodgers has 3, 4 and 3 touchdown passes in the last three games, but he has only one 300+ yard game this season. His floor is relatively high and any given game he can go off, especially if the game script dictates it. The Packers are expected to get a boost from their running game with the hopeful return of James Starks, which could put a damper on a pass-heavy game plan. The last five games, the Titans have allowed an average of 297 passing yards per game with 2 passing touchdowns allowed. Not bad numbers, but you want more than that from Rodgers as a high-dollar cash game quarterback.
Tom Brady is an option to consider this week at home against Seattle. The matchup against the Seahawks sounds daunting, but this is the type of game where Brady and the Patriots could flourish. Vegas is high on New England this week, giving them a 28.5 team point total. Looking deeper to DK points allowed, Seattle has allowed the 6th most DK points to quarterbacks over the last five games. Brady's four games this year have been solid 406-3, 376-3, 222-2, 314-4. That's 12 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in four games.
Others to consider include Marcus Mariota ($5,700) vs Green Bay, Jay Cutler ($5,300) at Tampa Bay and Dak Prescott ($6,100) at Pittsburgh. Mariota has been rising up the ranks lately, much in part to his rushing abilities in addition to 13 touchdown passes in his last five games. Since Week 5, Mariota is the Top quarterback in DK points. In the same number of games in that span (5) Mariota has 7 more DK points than Rodgers and 13 more than Andrew Luck. Mariota is a sneaky good play this week in my opinion. If Green Bay gets out to hot start, Mariota will have to pass (and run) to keep pace. A back and forth battle is not far-fetched.
Tom Brady - In his last two matchups against Seattle, Brady threw 50 and 58 times. Expect another pass-heavy game plan on Sunday.
Take your pick between Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady as your high-dollar chalk play. I'd say I slightly prefer Rodgers, who runs and throws in the red zone like no other and has a slightly straighter path to cash value.
Dak Prescott - Most DFSers that don't pay up for the top two will be on Prescott, so follow the herd in your cash games.
David Johnson - He'll provide major chalk and a great ceiling and floor. But that price tag is so unwieldy I'd rather take a hefty discount elsewhere.
I am targeting the Steelers/Cowboys game this week. Both QBs and complimentary options should have prime days.
DRAFTKINGS CONSENSUS RANKINGS: running back
|Melvin Gordon III||SD||MIA||7100||2||2||2||3||3||4||4||1||6||3||3.0|
|Ezekiel Elliott||DAL||at PIT||7900||10||3||10||-||6||5||11||5||3||7||7.3|
|Jay Ajayi||MIA||at SD||7000||-||5||3||9||5||6||-||3||7||-||7.7|
|Jordan Howard||CHI||at TB||6000||7||-||-||7||-||3||-||10||8||5||9.2|
|Devonta Freeman||ATL||at PHI||6800||-||9||-||6||10||10||-||-||4||9||10.0|
|Lamar Miller||HOU||at JAC||6400||-||6||-||10||12||7||-||9||-||-||10.9|
|Todd Gurley||LA||at NYJ||5300||-||-||4||5||-||-||12||-||-||-||11.2|
|Giovani Bernard||CIN||at NYG||4600||4||-||-||-||-||9||9||-||-||-||11.3|
|Duke Johnson Jr||CLE||at BAL||4000||-||-||-||-||-||-||7||-||-||-||12.4|
|Kapri Bibbs||DEN||at NO||4000||8||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||12.5|
|DuJuan Harris||SF||at ARI||4100||-||-||-||-||-||-||8||-||-||-||12.5|
|Isaiah Crowell||CLE||at BAL||4200||-||8||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||12.5|
|Devontae Booker||DEN||at NO||7000||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||9||-||12.6|
|Mark Ingram II||NO||DEN||5400||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||11||-||12||12.7|
|Spencer Ware||KC||at CAR||6700||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||11||-||12.8|
|Matt Asiata||MIN||at WAS||3800||-||-||12||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||12.9|
There's one must-start, play and several other options to consider as compliments to the five-star start of the year. Let's first get the no-brainer out of the way, David Johnson ($8,400) vs San Francisco. The 49ers have been incredibly bad against the run for weeks now. Usually teams adjust and make changes, resulting in some degree of success, but the 49ers have not been able to improve at all in their run defense. Opposing backs have destroyed them since the loss of Novorro Bowman in Week 4. Since Week 5 San Francisco has allowed on average 224 yards rushing to opposing backs and 2.3 rushing touchdowns per game. Whoa!
So who do you pair Johnson with? If you elect to go high dollar again, you can choose from Melvin Gordon III ($7,100) vs Miami, Le'Veon Bell ($7,700) vs Dallas or Ezekiel Elliott ($7,900) at Pittsburgh. Of these choices, I like Gordon and Elliott the most. Gordon has been a highly consistent producer all year long, especially after the season ending injury to Danny Woodhead. The Chargers have relied on him for all three downs not just as a rusher, but as a receiver as well. It's difficult to go wrong with Gordon. Elliott is my other choice. The Dallas ground game is seocnd in the league to the Bills and Elliott is one of the league's best fantasy backs. Having said that, he has not scored in three of of his eight games this year. Is that consistent enough? What about Pittsburgh's run defense? Since Week 5, Pittsburgh is 6th worst in DK points allowed to running backs giving up big games to LeGarrette Blount (127-2) and Jay Ajayi (204-2) in two of the last three games. Could Elliott exploit them again? I'd like to think so.
Cheaper backs to target, and there are many. Dion Lewis ($3,000) has the minimum price tag. He is expected to make his season debut at home against Seattle on Sunday Night Football. If he shows he can play at a high level, his usage will increase throughout the game. That's a big "if" though. He is definitely an option to consider, but more for deeper GPP contests. Darren Sproles ($4,300) vs Atlanta is another consideration. The Eagles have made him their primary back and he's doing a decent job so far, but he has only one touchdown this year and his catches are reduced compared to years past. Paul Perkins ($3,500) vs Cincinnati made the list from the consensus in the hopes that he'll see more action beginning this week. He hasn't done much this year, so it's difficult to rely on him, other than a deep GPP play. James Starks ($4,200) at Tennessee is expected to return to action this week after suffering a knee injury a few weeks back. If Starks plays, he should see a decent number of touches, which could be a surprise if he can make due on his chances. The Packers could definitely use him, as their ground game has resorted to Ty Montgomery getting reps in his absence. Rob Kelley ($3,600) vs Minnesota is another option. The ball security issues of Matt Jones has opened the door for preseason darling Kelley to get a crack at the starting role. The matchup against Minnesota is an unfavorable one, but the opportunity is definitely there.
Darren Sproles has had 22 carries/targets in each of the past two weeks and faces an Atlanta defense that has already allowed 70 receptions to opposing running backs.
Chris Ivory had 20 carries/targets last week and is facing a Houston defense that has given up 100+ yards and a touchdown to each of the past 5 starting running backs faced.
Todd Gurley - With his recent pass game usage and the talk in Los Angeles that the coaching staff wants to force him the ball, Gurley is too cheap this week and makes a nice play despite the tough Jets run defense.
Which RB is playing the 49ers this week? The best fantasy RB in the NFL...sign me up!
DRAFTKINGS CONSENSUS RANKINGS: wide receiver
|Alshon Jeffery||CHI||at TB||6600||3||6||1||1||5||4||8||-||-||8||6.2|
|Demaryius Thomas||DEN||at NO||6700||6||-||3||6||6||2||10||-||5||1||6.5|
|Stefon Diggs||MIN||at WAS||6200||-||8||4||12||3||3||11||11||1||7||7.3|
|A.J. Green||CIN||at NYG||8500||11||5||-||-||2||5||-||2||9||-||8.6|
|Julio Jones||ATL||at PHI||9500||-||4||7||-||-||7||-||6||8||-||9.7|
|Emmanuel Sanders||DEN||at NO||6800||9||-||10||3||-||10||12||-||7||9||9.9|
|Odell Beckham Jr||NYG||CIN||8800||-||7||-||-||9||-||-||4||6||-||10.4|
|Cameron Meredith||CHI||at TB||4400||2||-||12||-||-||-||-||-||-||5||11|
|Kenny Britt||LA||at NYJ||4900||10||-||-||10||-||-||7||7||-||-||11.2|
|Jarvis Landry||MIA||at SD||7200||-||11||-||-||8||8||-||-||-||12||11.7|
|Quinton Patton||SF||at ARI||3000||-||-||-||-||-||-||2||-||-||-||11.9|
|DeAndre Hopkins||HOU||at JAC||7100||12||-||-||-||-||6||-||-||-||-||12.2|
|Jordy Nelson||GB||at TEN||7500||-||-||8||-||-||-||-||-||11||-||12.3|
|Dez Bryant||DAL||at PIT||7000||-||12||9||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||12.5|
|Doug Baldwin||SEA||at NE||5800||-||-||-||8||-||-||-||-||-||-||12.5|
|Ty Montgomery||GB||at TEN||6500||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||10||-||-||12.7|
|Willie Snead IV||NO||DEN||5300||-||-||-||-||10||-||-||-||-||-||12.7|
With DraftKings requiring three wide receiver slots with a possible fourth as a flex, this is an area that you don't want to whiff on. The consensus is high on Mike Evans ($9,000) and Alshon Jeffery ($6,600) and I couldn't agree more. Evans has been cleared from a concussion and his quarterback Jameis Winston has practiced in full after hurting his knee last Thursday against Atlanta. Not only does Evans lead the NFL in targets with 102, but he dominates his team in this category. The next closest receiver has 45 (Adam Humphries). The Buccaneers often use one or two wide receiver sets which funnels the targets into Evans week in and week out. This week's matchup against Chicago is one you can't ignore. Since Week 5, the Bears have allowed the most DK points to opposing wide receivers averaging 21 receptions a game to wide receivers for 237 yards and 1.5 touchdowns. For a team that has one main receiver, this is music to everyone's ears who choose to pick Evans for their lineup.
Alshon Jeffery ($6,600) is $2,300 less than Evans, yet he could have similar results in a game that could be back and forth. Now that Jay Cutler is back in the fold for Chicago, his gunslinger mentality favors Jeffery and his longer route tendencies. Jeffery has 13, 11 and 8 targets in each of his last three games. He's becoming more of a fixture in the Cuter-led offense and he's ready to explode against a Buccaneers defense that is ripe to be exposed.
Other complimentary wide receivers to target include Larry Fitzgerald ($7,600) vs San Francisco, The Broncos receivers Demaryius Thomas ($6,700) and Emmanuel Sanders ($6,800) at New Orleans, Antonio Brown ($8,900) vs Dallas and Odell Beckham Jr Jr. ($8,800) vs Cincinnati. A double stack of Thomas and Sanders paired with Evans and some lower priced running backs could be an interesting strategy. Larry Fitzgerald is a consistent bet and wouldn't be ironic if he scores twice in a game where the running game is projected to be front and center?
Lower priced options include J.J. Nelson ($4,200) vs San Francisco. He's coming off a two-touchdown effort at Carolina and has taken over as the team's second wide receiver behind Fitzgerald over the last two games. Dontrelle Inman ($3,400) at home vs Miami is a possibility, especially if Travis Benjamin is indeed out this week and Tyrell Williams is still gimpy with his own knee injury.
Dontrelle Inman is my top receiver from a projected point per dollar perspective. He’s seen at least six targets in each of San Diego’s last three games, topping out at nine last week, which tied Antonio Gates for the team lead. With Travis Benjamin hurting, Inman should continue to see enough high percentage slot targets to exceed a 3x salary multiple against a suspect Dolphins secondary.
Quinton Patton - In the three games since Colin Kaepernick took over as the 49ers starter, Quinton Patton leads the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards, and has exceeded a 3x salary multiple in two out of three games. The 49ers figure to pass a lot as 13.5 point road underdogs in Arizona, which should provide ample opportunity for Patton to return at least 3x value at his minimum price.
Tennessee wide receivers - I see shootout potential in the Green Bay at Tennessee game, which makes Marcus Mariota’s passing game weapons interesting plays this week. Rishard Matthews and Kendall Wright have combined for six touchdowns in the last four games and face a Green Bay pass defense that has allowed the ninth-most raw fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season.
DRAFTKINGS CONSENSUS RANKINGS: tight end
|Jimmy Graham||SEA||at NE||5300||2||1||3||4||4||7||7||8||-||6||5.1|
|Zach Miller||CHI||at TB||3600||7||-||7||1||1||-||1||7||-||1||5.2|
|Kyle Rudolph||MIN||at WAS||3600||-||7||1||3||-||2||4||-||-||2||5.5|
|Jason Witten||DAL||at PIT||4000||-||-||5||5||-||1||5||5||-||3||6.0|
|Tyler Eifert||CIN||at NYG||5200||1||2||-||-||7||4||-||-||4||-||6.3|
|Lance Kendricks||LA||at NYJ||3000||6||-||-||-||5||-||2||1||-||-||6.8|
|C.J. Fiedorowicz||HOU||at JAC||3500||-||-||-||-||2||3||-||6||-||5||7.0|
|Travis Kelce||KC||at CAR||5600||8||4||6||-||-||6||-||-||2||8||7.0|
|Gary Barnidge||CLE||at BAL||3400||5||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||8.6|
Rob Gronkowski ($6,900) vs Seattle and Jimmy Graham ($5,300) at New England are the two big plays that will see a lot of ownership. Gronkowski has been a big contributor since Brady's return and he usually steps up his level of play in big games. This would qualify as a big game, plus you have the added bonus of watching your point total soar on Sunday night while others in your cash game contest are done and standing still. The other option in this same game equation is Jimmy Graham, who has shown that he is back to attack. Last week's two tocuhdown game was a clear indication that he's someone to take note of going forward.
If you don't go with one of those two, I really like Tyler Eifert at $5,200. Eifert took a week to get going after returning from his ankle and back injuries, but he was a big part of the Bengals offense in their last game and is deserving of a cash game start. The bye week will only help him be fully healed heading into the second half of the season. His line of 9-102-1 is intriguing and definitely makes him one to watch.
Lance Kendricks ($3,000) is lowest I would go for a tight end in a cash game and still expect decent results. Kendricks has games of 5, 5, 2, 7, 7 receptions in his last five games topping 50 yards in three of those five games. At $3,000 you can spend big in other areas and still have the chance to get 3x value from your tight end with a 4 receptions for 50 yards game.
Lance Kendricks is dominating the Rams' target share of late, yet pricing has yet to really catch up. You can question his upside, but not his ability hit nine points with this usage.
Rob Gronkowski is priced within reach this week. Pay up for the consistency.
DRAFTKINGS CONSENSUS RANKINGS: defense
|Los Angeles||LA||at NYJ||2900||-||-||-||1||-||4||4||4||-||-||4.9|
|Kansas City||KC||at CAR||3500||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||2||-||-||5.6|
Like John Mamula said below - this is the week to pay up for a top defense. Arizona ($3,700) vs San Francisco is the top option, followed by Baltimore ($3,700) vs Cleveland. Houston ($3,800) at Jacksonville is another defense that could have a big game against Blake Bortles and the Jaguars struggles. The Jets vs. Los Angeles is another one to consider, especially with what looks like a reduced price of $2,800. The Rams offensive line gave up four sacks last week. Chicago at $2,500 received some love from the consensus and their opponent, Tampa Bay has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing defensive units over the last four weeks.
The Chiefs have scored 10+ in 4 straight games, plus a 35 in Week 4 for the fun of it. This is a splash-play unit that carries an awesome ceiling against the relatively turnover-prone Panthers.
This is a week that you will want to pay up at defense.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to email@example.com
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