Footballguys Staff Mock Draft 5, FPC Scoring, 12 team, 28 Round Best Ball

Overall Strategy:

Hit the RB position early, grab two solid QBS back to back in the middle rounds.

Best Pick:

Cam Newton – 8.11. Everyone knows that Newton will add a couple rushing touchdowns this season, and in a 4 point passing touchdown league, he’s worth a little more.  Landing Newton at the bottom of the 8th round is excellent value since his ADP has him going over two rounds higher. Hicks added Tony Romo just four picks later, giving him a solid QBBC approach in a Best all league.

Worst Pick:

Jordan Cameron – 7.02. Cameron isn’t going to see the targets that he had in Cleveland, and his concussion issues should be a big concern. He’s still a TE1, especially in a 1.5 PPR for TE league, but taking him at 7.02 is a bit of a reach. Hicks drafted at the turn, so he needed to grab a TE at the top or wait until the end of round 8 so it’s understandable why he reached a bit. Hicks did grab a few later round TEs that should provide some value though, so ultimately he did fine at the TE position.

1. You benefited from LeSean McCoy falling into the third round. Were you happy with this decision or did you feel obligated to not let him slip any further? What expectations do you have for McCoy this year?

There were a few reasons for drafting LeSean McCoy when I did. First of all I was not expecting any of my 2nd tier backs to be available here and I had a choice of 3, 4 if we count Jeremy Hill who I got with my 2nd selection and is a 1st tier back in my rankings. Next the lineup format of only 2 starting receivers, with 2 flex positions allows more choice and lets you draft where the strength is rather than from positional need. Thirdly, at draft pick 2 you not only have your lineup to worry about, but you need to think about who will be drafted in the next 20 picks. For my 4th and 5th round picks I was likely to have plenty of choice at wide receiver, quarterback and tight end, but given the precipitous drop from 2nd tier to 3rd tier backs and the odds of any of them being available in the 4th I did feel obligated to get best player available.

As for expectations, it's not an easy call. New coach and new team for the player and you have an element of automatic risk built in. Given the defensive strength of Buffalo and the weakness at quarterback, it's an almost certainty that McCoy will be busy. How the spilt works out between the backs and how many teething issues there will be in implementing a new offense with new players is why I have McCoy rated a little lower than some.

2. Your selection of Cam Newton and Tony Romo, coupled with the Browns quarterback committee (Josh McCown & Johnny Manizel) gives you options at quarterback. Explain why this strategy is beneficial in a Best Ball league.

In Best Ball you need options every week. You need bye week coverage, allowances for bad matchups and injuries. The more depth you have at all positions the better long term viability of your team. Some teams only had 1 defense, while 2 kickers and even 2 quarterbacks is common. 1 key injury can ruin these teams. With 28 players on the roster you should be able to draft deep at every position. With smaller rosters you have key decisions to make in best ball, but in this format do people really need 10 wide receivers? If you are on top of your bye week management when drafting then the only issues that will sink your team are injuries and bad matchups. I allowed players I would normally draft pass by, if it was a close call, due to their bye week matching an existing starter. I feel I drafted a competent line up that maximizes my chances of scoring well every week. The rest is out of my hands.

3. Choose a player you selected later in the draft and explain why you have optimistic expectations for them this year.

My selections from round 18 onwards ie the last 11 rounds were made up of 3 defenses, 3 kickers and 2 complementary players to expected starters ie Cordarrelle Patterson is essentially Mike Wallace insurance, as is Mike Davis for Carlos Hyde. That leaves 3 players. Stevan Ridley in round 20. He may not even play this year, which is why he was there in round 20. He is expected to be on PUP, so he is a big risk. Chris Matthews with my 27th rounder is a swing for the fences. His only career good game just happened to be in the Super Bowl with 100 yards and a touchdown. The odds of a breakout receiver in this offense, with that Defense are low. If there is one, he is it. Miles Austin with my last pick is an interesting guy I like. He is now 31 and has been in the fantasy wilderness for the last 2 years, but the expected starters are a rookie and a 2nd year guy. These aren't sure things. Riley Cooper isn't starter material so essentially Josh Huff or Miles Austin could be huge if there is an issue with Jordan Matthews or Nelson Agholor. In the 28th round it is all upside.

Sigmund Bloom: Draft Position 3

Overall Strategy:

Fade the QB position and focus on RB/TE to start.

Best Pick:

Rob Gronkowski – 1.02. The tight end position is really weak after Gronkowski this season. The second tier is two or three points a game behind him and even third tier guys who will finish in the top 10 for fantasy TEs this season are likely to post seven or eight points per game less than Gronkowski. IT’s pretty crazy. In a standard PPR league like this one, taking Gronkowski as the #2 overall is no surprise. With Tom Brady’s suspension sitting at four games, Gronkowski is going to be even more important to the Patriot offense at the start of the season. Bloom broke convention by taking a tight end so high, but it’s going to pay off in the long run.

Worst Pick:

Tom Brady – 9.03. Brady’s suspension was still in question when Bloom took Brady as his starting QB in the 9th round. However, he was going to miss some time for sure and most owners would take him as a backup to supplement taking a low-end tier 1 QB.  Bloom waited a bit too long and got caught at the end of a QB run. After week 5, Brady will be a solid QB for Bloom from week to week, but those first four games are really going to be struggle with Andy Dalton as his top QB.

Aaron Rudnicki: Draft Position 4

Overall Strategy:

Fade the TE position a bit and draft strong RB/WR players with upside.  Grab two lower tier TEs back to back and take advantage of the best ball format.

Best Pick:

Randall Cobb – 3.04.  Aaron Rodgers is projected to be one of the top QBS in the league this season, and he’s going to throw a lot of touchdown passes to Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson. Cobb is going as high as the top of the second round in a PPR league, so for Rudnicki to land him at 3.04 is a great pick. If he can stay healthy, Cobb could easily finish at a top 10 fantasy WR this season and grabbing him in the third round gives Aaron a solid starting lineup right out of the gate.

Worst Pick:

Shane Vereen – 7.04. The New York running back situation is a mess this season, with Rashad Jennings, and Andre Williams. Vereen was a nice pass-catcher in New England, but it’s really unclear what his role in the offense will be.  Williams could finish with the lion’s share of the touches this season, even if he doesn’t catch many passes. This will severely limit Vereen’s upside potential. Unless he can haul in four or five catches a game all season, he’s not going to be worth the high 7th round pick that Aaron spent on him.

Jeff Haseley: Draft Position 5

Overall Strategy:

Secure RB and QB early – wait on TE position.

Best Pick:

Aaron Rodgers – 3.05.  With only 4 pts per passing TD, you can fade the QB position for a bit since it’s not as important as your skill positions. But Rodgers could be the best fantasy QB this season and landing him a full round after his ADP is pretty solid value.  Landing Rodgers there let Haseley focus on his other positions and leave his backup QB until round 14.

Worst Pick:

Dwayne Allen – 8.08. In league that gives TE 1.5 points per reception, having a solid TE is important and they tend to go fast. In FPC scoring, Allen is at the bottom of the TE1 tier, meaning Haseley is going to need big production from his other skills positions to compete every week.

Overall Strategy:

Hit the WR position early and often and then look for value picks at QB and TE.

Best Pick:

Brandin Cooks – 3.06. Drafting from the #6 slot is rough. You always feel like your first choice is taken every round. Parsons managed to land solid value when he nabbed Cooks at 3.06, giving Parsons one of the strongest WR groups in the league. Cooks is a solid WR2 in a PPR league and in a Best Ball format, he will put up WR1 numbers a couple times this season. Finding him sitting there at 3.06 was too good to pass up.

Worst Pick:

Davante Adams – 7.06. When Parsons took Adams in the 7th, he had 4 WR and 2 RB on his team already. Even though there are two flex positions in this league, the 1.5 points for a TE receptions make the TE position a priority. Drafting a 5th WR when he didn’t have a TE was more of a luxury than he needed, and 3 more TEs were off the board by the time Parsons picked again at 8.06.  Parsons could have waited on his 5th WR and either gone with a TE or QB or added depth at RB.

Overall Strategy:

Fade the TE and QB positions. Focus on RB/WR and draft for value given the poor draft draw.  Handcuff RBS when possible.

Best Pick:  

Alshon Jeffery – 3.07. Jeffery is the real deal in Chicago, but he played second fiddle to the Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler show last year. Now that Marshall is gone, the passing game is going to go through Jeffery. Rookie Kevin White is already banged up, and he will probably be brought along slowly, leaving Jeffery to be the top flight receiver in an offense that will have to throw a lot this year. Landing Jeffery in the middle of the third was a great pick for Waldman.

Worst Pick:

Jarvis Landry – 6.06. Landry had some decent stats as a rookie last season, but with Mike Wallace gone, there are a lot of people projecting Landry to take a big jump forward. But the Dolphins also made some additions, bringing in Greg Jennings, Kenny Stills and Jordan Cameron. They also drafted DeVante Parker in the 1st round this year. That is going to seriously limit Landry’s upside and makes him a risky pick. Landry is currently projected as a WR4 in most leagues, but his ADP is somewhere in the 7th round.  Waldman reached for him a bit, grabbing him a full round earlier at 6.06. That being said, Landry is only at WR4 on Waldman’s squad as well, so as ‘worst’ picks go – this wasn’t too bad.

1. You selected five tight ends and employed the late round tight end strategy waiting to take your first tight end in the 10th round (Kyle Rudolph). Explain why you like this strategy.

I knew I wasn't getting Gronkowski. I thought Jimmy Graham might fall to me, but I actually preferred C.J. Anderson. And I anticipated there would be too many Kelce lovers for him to fall to me in the mid-fourth. At this point, I decided I'd wait on Rudolph and hopefully two of the following: Heath Miller, Vernon Davis and Jacob Tamme.

As you can see by my roster that worked like a charm.

I was off by a half a round timing each player and missed all of them. So telling you that I "like this strategy," would be a truckload of manure. My plan didn't work with tight ends.

The sharks wrecked my boat. Stuff happens, deal with it. And that's exactly what I did.

I targeted tight ends that I know are capable of high-scoring weeks regardless of current situation. Jared Cook is a fantasy tease no one wants anymore, but Nick Foles is an improvement to the mess the Rams had last year and it should make him more consistent. Last year, Cook was the No.9 TE after the first three weeks and the No.11 TE the final three weeks of the season. I believe teams were still catching up the quarterback Austin Davis during those first three weeks and veteran Shaun Hill stabilized the unit the final three weeks. I'm betting that Foles will also keep the unit stable and that's enough for Cook to deliver low-end TE1 production, which I expect to be Kyle Rudolph's floor as long as he can stay healthy.

My final three tight ends are calculated swings at high upside. Virgil Green will see more targets in Denver in two tight end sets, but that's low-upside talk that wasn't the compelling reason I picked him. Green is playing alongside Owen Daniels, who has been more rickety than a traveling carnival ride. Green has the athleticism of an elite option. If a Daniels injury forces Green to earn more opportunities, it's a great scenario for me because I think Denver will have an easier time finding a quality free agent blocker at the position than a dynamic receiver. Otherwise, NFL teams wouldn't be raiding college basketball for half-decent power forwards.

While not the type of big man who can run the court, Scott Chandler has a great post-up game in the red zone. I won't be surprised if he's in two-tight end sets for the Patriots and robbing Gronkowski of touchdowns. If Gronkowski, gets hurt, Chandler won't have the All-Pro's upside, but he's skilled enough to earn top-10 production if asked to become a bigger part of the offense.

I won't have the tight end power lineup that some of my competition sports, but even with 1.5 PPR for tight ends, the best performer didn't make the top 20. I'll take my chances with my backs and receivers.

2. You cornered the Seahawks, Browns and Broncos rushing attack by selecting their starting running back and their backup(s). Explain why this strategy can pay dividends in this league.

Whether it's a talented backup behind a stud (Seahawks), a capable reserve getting the ball with great surrounding talent (Broncos), or a committee with two talented backs earning consistent opportunities (Browns), depth helps with teams that you believe will make the ground game a priority in its attack. Why not get as much of the total points as possible from good rushing attacks?

The Seahawks, Broncos, and Browns team fantasy points at the RB position were No.4, No.9, and No.18 respectively. This year, Denver wants to run the ball more. Last year, the Browns had offensive line injuries and weekly uncertainty among three running backs in the rotation. This year, I believe they'll roll with two backs more often than three, and those two backs--Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson--have the potential to produce as top-30 fantasy runners. With past precedent of Joique Bell-Reggie Bush, Jeremy Hill-Giovanni Bernard, Darren Sproles-Pierre Thomas, or Sproles-Ingram, I can live that that kind of platoon when I can start up to four backs in this best-ball lineup.

C.J. Anderson remains slightly underrated in my eyes. Yes, he's a top-20 pick in most drafts, but I see him as a top-10 pick. Getting Anderson and Lynch is one of my favorite opening moves this year. Both the Broncos and Seahawks have the smart quarterbacks and at least one stud receiver/tight end to make defenses pay if opponents get too aggressive playing the run. I expect I'll get consistently strong production from Lynch, Anderson, or their backups if called upon.

3. You were the only team to select one defense (NY Jets), where nine different teams picked three. Explain why you chose to use this approach in this league?

It wasn't a conscious decision at first. I took the Jets because I like the upside of that team with its defensive line, the return of Darrelle Revis, improvements to the offense under Chan Gailey, and the overall leadership of Todd Bowles. The defensive run just continued in a block of time that was inconvenient for the other picks I wanted to make. When owners began taking second and third defensive units in earnest, I took a second look at the scoring and performance history of this league and I didn't think that the options I'd be left with were compelling:

There were 18 teams in the top 200 players last year, but only 1 unit scored well enough to perform in the top 110 players, and only 5 the year prior.
Only one of the bottom-five scoring defenses had a 20-point week in 2013.
Only 2 of the bottom 8 in 2014 had a week with at least 20 points.
I decided I didn't want to waste 1-2 picks on defenses that weren't likely to give me those outbursts of 15-30 fantasy points. Those are low-ceiling picks when I have a better chance for the Jets outscoring them weekly for a single spot in my lineup.

I preferred taking receivers because a big week from one can help any of the four possible slots in my lineup reserved for the position. Players like Robert Woods, Marlon Brown, Rashad Greene have potential to start for their teams or at least see weekly targets as significant contributors in a rotation. Do I really want the Jaguars defense instead even if they out-point any of these receivers during the season but can't out-point the Jets weekly? It didn't make sense to me.

I also preferred taking reserve runners with talent in offenses that run the ball or reserve tight ends with talent in situations where the team has a quarterback that targets the position and/or the starting tight end has a history of missing time. This is why I have the Jets defense and an empty bye week. If 8-15 points truly matters during the bye week for me, then I'm doing pretty well.

Overall Strategy:

Grab 2 strong TEs early and fade the RB position. Add a couple solid QBs and look for value at the WR position.

Best Pick:

Antonio Brown – 1.08. Brown is going in the top three picks in many PPR leagues. He bumps down a spot or two in a TE bonus league but landing him at 1.08 was good value for Wimer. With his plan to hit the TE position early with a couple picks, Wimer needed to start the draft with a strong pick and landing Brown at 1.08 was a great pick.

Worst Pick:

Tevin Coleman – 7.08.  Coleman is projecting at a RB3 now, but because Wimer faded the position, Coleman is going to be his #2 RB each week.  Wimer grabbed Freeman a couple round later, meaning if one of the Atlanta backs go off, Wimer will have them in his lineup. However, if Atlanta runs a RBBC this season, both Coleman and Freeman will steal touches from each other, weakening his overall RB performance.

1. You selected two tight ends in the first three picks with wide receiver Antonio Brown being the other pick. Explain why you favor this strategy of waiting on running backs and rostering two top end tight ends?

This league has enhanced PPR scoring for tight ends (1.5 points per reception), and the flex rules mean that up to three tight ends may score in any given week (Best ball, QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE (2 flex RB, WR,TE), Def, K). Given that lineup requirements mean I only need a minimum of two wide receivers to score in any week, I was able to focus on getting one high-volume PPR machine in Brown (who saw double-digit targets in 13-out-of-16 games last year, with seven or more receptions in 14-out-of-16 games last year) to pair with a stable of deep-threat/red-zone threat wide receivers who should collectively throw down a good number of explosive games to pair with the stable, high-volume PPR scoring I'll get from Brown and tight ends Jimmy Graham, Greg Olsen, and Maxx Williams/Crockett Gilmore week in and week out. The best ball scoring means that I'll automatically reap the big games from the combination of Nelson Agholor, Torrey Smith, Jermaine Kearse, and the TD machine Marvin Jones/his backup Mohamed Sanu to go with Antonio Browns' consistent top-end production. The ceiling on the scoring from my #2 wide receiver position is very high, in my opinion, while the floor of the entire stable is pretty attractive as well given Brown's high-voulume role on the Steelers.

The other reason I eschewed running backs in favor of tight ends is that there are very few tight ends in the top tier of pass-catchers in the NFL, while there are a plentiful amount of running backs that have good chances at snagging a decent volume of catches to go with their carries in any given week of the season. With a 28-round event horizon for this draft, I knew I'd be able to go deep into lineups where necessary to collect depth at running back, while behind the elite tight ends there are not many exciting backup options when it comes to high-volume PPR scoring. If you want elite scoring in this 1.5 PPR paradigm from the tight end position, you need to get at least one of the top five or six options there. I managed to get two of the consensus top five tight ends (Graham is #2 on my tight end board, while Olsen is #4).

2. Quarterback is a strength of yours with two picks in the first ten rounds (Peyton Manning and Matthew Stafford). Explain why you like this strategy in a Best Ball league.

Manning and Stafford should combine to have relatively high scoring at their position for my squad from week to week - Manning plays in Denver, on an offensively-geared team and has some of the best receivers in football around him, while Stafford has the indoor stadium in Detroit and also one of the best receiver tandems in the league entering 2015. If one of them goes down to injury, the presence of the other on my roster should help insulate this squad from a dramatic downturn at the QB position. Stafford is expected to throw deep more often this year, according to his offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi "I thought that he played smart football (last year), and sometimes to a fault," Lombardi said back in April. "We'll look to him to maybe take a few more chances this year with the football. He's got the arm to do it and he's got the receivers to throw it to." If Stafford is asked to throw deep more this year, he'll be a great compliment to the high-flying Manning's numbers.

Also, Manning sometimes slows down at the end of the season, while Stafford's team will be in a dog fight with Green Bay right down to the wire, so Stafford should help out the scoring late in the year while Manning rests up for the playoffs (if that scenario develops again this year, with Denver running away with the AFC West and Manning just playing partial games or sitting out games during December).

3. You managed to corner the Falcons rushing attack with Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman and Antone Smith. What are your expectations for the Falcons running game in 2015?  How do you envision the roles panning out?

The Falcons will have growing pains among their rushing offense this year - Coleman and Freeman are young and inexperienced, and Smith hasn't been a workhorse back to date in his career, but he did have some explosive games last season. Again, in a best ball league, I'll collect the scoring of whichever back eventually comes out on top of the depth chart during training camp, and I've insulated myself against injury by cornering the majority of the current Atlanta depth chart. I really believe this is a wide-open battle for the top job in Atlanta, but since I drafted all three of the main contenders, I should get the lead back for the Falcons week in and week out.

Overall Strategy:

Fade the RB position and land 2 solid QBs and TEs in the early going.

Best Pick:

T.Y. Hilton – 3.09. Hilton is a top 10 fantasy wide receiver in a PPR league. He’s going to be the leading wide receiver on a team that’s projected to throw for almost 5000 yards this season. Hilton is a legitimate WR1 in a PPR league and he’s going at the end of the second round in most fantasy drafts now. The fact that Tremblay was able to add Hilton with a 3rd round pick and that he’s actually Tremblay’s #2 receiver behind Odell Beckham makes Hilton an excellent pick. Add in the stack value of having Andrew Luck as his starting QB, and Hilton was a great pickup at 3.09.

Worst Pick:

Ben Roethlisberger – 7.09. Tremblay already landed one of the top QBS in the draft by grabbing Luck in the second round.  In a league that only awards 4 pts per passing TD, having a strong QB like Luck means you can wait a bit for your backup. Instead. Tremblay landed a starter-quality guy in Roethlisberger in the 7th round.  Roetlisberger would be a weekly starter on half the teams in the league (see Dodds above), but he’ll just be a nice backup on Tremblay’s team with Luck in the mix. This was a luxury pick that could have been used on a WR or RB instead.

David Dodds: Draft Position 10

Overall Strategy:

Same as it always is: Value, Value Value.

Best Pick:

Eddie Lacy – 2.03. Lacy is a top five pick in a non-PPR league, and still good first round quality in a format like this. He’s a workhorse back who will get a lot of touches, including near the goal line and he’ll be the guy that the Packers turn to in the cold weather in November and December. Landing him at 2.03 is criminal.

Worst Pick:

Sam Bradford – 10.03. Bradford hasn’t played in an NFL game since October 20, 2013.  Yes he’s in a Chip Kelly offense that won’t ask him to do a lot, but can he stay healthy enough to even make it to opening day? Bradford might have been a good supplement to a starting QB in a best ball format in case he pans out, but Dodds took Bradford as his first QB off the board.

Jeff Tefertiller: Draft Position 11

Overall Strategy:

Balanced draft focusing on RB, WR and TE positions through the first eight rounds, drafting for value whenever possible.

Best Pick:

Jamaal Charles – 1.11. Charles is a top five pick in a PPR format, and even with the TE bonus, he’s going to be one of the best fantasy players this season. Jeff must have been turning cartwheels to find him still available at 1.11. This pick is going to pay huge dividends this season.

Worst Pick:

Anquan Boldin – 8.02. Boldin wasn’t a ‘bad’ pick in the 8th round of a PPR league, and with him projecting as a high WR3, he probably was good value at this point. But Tefertiller already had three solid WRs on his roster at that point and he still needed a QB. Only 4 WR were taken between his 8.02 pick and his 9.11 pick (three of them from Arizona), but seven QBs went off the board during that same stretch. Jeff could have taken a better QB with his 8th round pick and still landed a WR of similar value at 9.11.

Overall Strategy:

Focus on the skills position and maximize value at the turn.

Best Pick:

Drew Brees – 8.01. Fading the QB position to focus on RB / WR is smart in a PPR league, especially for leagues that only award 4 pts. per passing TD and are best ball format. But landing Drew Brees in the 8th round is big value, even in this format. Not only did Lee land his starting QB a full three rounds after his ADP, but eight other quarterbacks were taken between Lee’s pick at 8.01 and his next pick at 9.12. Drafting at the turn is always tricky, but Lee timed it perfectly to land solid value and avoid missing the QB run that would have left him scrambling.

Worst Pick:

Marques Colston – 7.12. Colston is going in the 11th or 12th round in most PPR leagues right now, and spending a 7th round pick to grab him is a huge reach. Only 8 WR were taken between Lee’s pick at 7.12 and his pick at 11.01, so even if he really wanted Colston, he probably could have waited until is pick in the 9th or 10th round and still landed him.  Lee’s team would have been better off waiting on Colston and either taking a second QB (he took Colin Kaepernick at 9.12) or another RB or TE at 7.02 and waited a bit to take Colston.