1. Week 17 can be an unpredictable mess though this year we have a lot of meaningful games. How do avoid the pitfalls that a late season game can bring when it comes to players only playing in half a game or coaches sitting studs? What adjustments are you making this week?
Chad Parsons: First off, my overall money in play will be 30-50% of a typical regular season week. That alone reduces the risk of missing big on playing time, not a usual risk earlier in the season. Secondly, I lower the volume of games from which I use players. I will bump up players in meaningful games 5-10% in terms of exposure and push down those with quality value some to mitigate the possibility of being shut down early.
Alex Miglio: Washington is the only team with something to lose by playing starters this week. There is no way to improve or lose playoff seeding there, so I am expecting most of the starters to get pulled real early. Other playoff teams have plenty to play for, though, so I am treating this week like any other week from that standpoint. The biggest issues are whether players will get pulled for getting dinged up, on any team. I am fading the injury report this week -- anyone who had issues practicing will not make it into many lineups for that reason.
Mark Wimer: I'm going even more conservative than Chad this week - I'll likely have about 10% of my bankroll in play, about what I do in Weeks One and Two of regular season. There are so many downside scenarios in Week 17 that I simply wish to preserve my gains this week - once Wild Card Weekend arrives we know that that players will be leaving it all on the field as they strive to advance to the next round of the tournament. Why put my $ at risk THIS week when NEXT week I know the guys I pick will go for a full 60 minutes at 10 10ths of their ability?
Maurile Tremblay: I make sure I stay up on all the day-to-day news for each team. Local beat writers usually have a pretty good feel for which teams may rest certain players. When there's a risk that a player might not play very much (for example, Jordan Reed this week), I will completely avoid him in cash games. In tournaments, I'll weight is upside potential against the risk of getting just a few snaps -- and the calculus almost always results in avoiding such a player in GPPs as well as cash games (though he'll get a bit more consideration).
Andrew Garda: As with most people here, I am decreasing my lineups and cash outlay this week. Even though we have a lot of important games, it’s still unpredictable.
That said, Maurile is dead on – whatever you play, make sure you keep up with what the local beat writers are saying. For myself, I will probably end up focusing on a few games with a lot of importance where guys will not sit and trying to find value there. And I will probably have two very different lineups for cash and GPPs. Again as MT says, you might be ok running some risk in a GPP, while you need to chalk to win some cash.
In other words I will be more cautious in cash games than GPPs which, in a lot of ways is very much how you play (or should) each weekend anyway.
2. Who are a few players you feel you can rely on this week who nobody is talking about?
Miglio: Well that's a loaded question. I'm not sure we can "rely" on anyone nobody is talking about, but how about Pierre Thomas? I know, I just said I would fade Washington's offense and injured players. Thomas should see the field plenty, though -- it's not as if he's a prized rookie -- and he could wind up having a nice day against Dallas.
Tremblay: If Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman sit out for the Patriots, I think Keshawn Martin because a very promising play, especially in GPPs.
Garda: I like the call on Keshawn Martin, though yes it depends on who else is playing for New England. Believe it or not, I like Matt Ryan this week. We know the Saints can’t stop a runny nose, and this could be a very good week for Ryan – a guy most people rightfully fade each week because he’s been a disaster.
Rashad Jennings could be a nice play as well. He’s looked solid the last two weeks and all of New York is playing for their jobs. While Orleans Darkwa could see some carries, the team has moved away from him recently – I think Jennings gets close to a full load.
3. It’s clear that at least a chunk of the Eagles team had quit on Chip Kelly. Now that he’s gone, do you expect some of the skill players to step up? Might we finally see DeMarco Murray get back on track?
Parsons: There's a good chance. I like the Murray call and he is a player I dig for 2016 as an undervalued buy in the offseason - whether a best ball draft or dynasty trade for a discount.
Miglio: I'm not sure what to make of the Eagles this week. They could play inspired, or they could all be checked out for the year. DeMarco Murray got himself into the dog house as a result of going to Jeffrey Lurie, and Chip Kelly's termination might not be that big a boon for him.
One thing is for sure, though -- the Giants make for a nice matchup. This is going to be a high-scoring affair according to Vegas, so investing in Philly's skill players might be a good idea.
Wimer: I totally disagree with Chad on this one - I am avoiding all the Eagles' players this week. Re-instated head of personnel Executive VP of Football Operations Howie Roseman is going to want to start reviewing the talent/lack thereof among the backups on this roster as he starts the process of ameliorating the Chip-Kelly-Era damage to the Eagles' roster. I think there is a good chance that Murray and Mathews have quick cameos before we see a lot of Kenjon Barner in Week 17.
Tremblay: The Eagles say that they're not going to change their offense much, and I fully believe them. It doesn't make sense to install a new offense in Week 17. I'd expect the play-calling to remain pretty consistent from what we've seen in previous weeks. I'm not expecting Murray to break out of his doldrums, or for any other player to finally shine after being ineffective up until now.
Garda: Like Alex, I have no idea what to expect from the Eagles or Murray. If he didn’t fit the offense before and they aren’t changing it much (because why both right now?) then do we really expect him to play better? His future value is going to be based on whomever comes in to run an offense this offseason. For this week, I expect him to try and put on a show because the spotlight is on him because of Chip Kelly’s departure and his perceived role in it. But again, he’s such a bad fit for what the Eagles do, I am not excited by him.
I do think Mark has a good point as well – we might see some roster depth to help figure out who belongs, but I’m not as worried as he is. Roseman needs to figure out if some of the starters – notably Sam Bradford and DeMarco Murray as well as Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles – fit as well.
I’m avoiding the Eagles despite the matchup but Murray is a decent ‘hail mary’ in a GPP because he’s relatively cheap.
4. Is there a game you’re looking at this weekend which you think will be a high production output DFS game? One you should avoid?
Parsons: While not the highest over-under or even within five points of the top spot, I like the Houston-Jacksonville matchup for the passing games. Jacksonville's defense is vanilla and Brian Hoyer is slated to return, who has played very well. I can see the Jaguars going pass-heavy both by game script and being down T.J. Yeldon at running back.
Miglio: Well, I just mentioned the Giants-Eagles game, but the Saints-Falcons game should be a nice one from a production standpoint as well. These teams put up 52 points the last time around, and we should see a similar output again. Meanwhile, the o/u for the Rams-49ers game is at 37.5. Woof.
Wimer: Here I totally agree with Chad - Hoyer vs. Bortles looks like a barnburner to me.
I am absolutely avoiding PHI/NYG as that may wind up a Mark Sanchez vs. Ryan Nassib-fest with Seyi Ajirotutu being the top receiver at the end of the day. I literally have NO idea what is going to go down in that game. Odell Beckham Jr might rack up 200 yards receiving in his return to the field, or he may see two targets for 1/25/0 receiving before heading to the bench.
Tremblay: I'm looking for New England to score a lot of points at Miami, and for Pittsburgh to score a lot of points at Cleveland. The game with the real fireworks, though, should be New Orleans at Atlanta. The Saints can put points on the board at a fast pace, and they can give up points even faster. I think having a few GPP lineups stacked with players from that game is a good idea.
Garda: You guys took the two best games – New Orleans/Atlanta and Jacksonville/Houston. And while I disagree with Mark about Beckham Jr, he’s right that the overall game could be a backup-filled dud (and I’m in the Press Box for that so that would suck).
I do think you’ll see the Jets passing offense produce some great points this week and Ryan Fitzpatrick, Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall should all put up good points – and Bilal Powell could be an inexpensive sneak play. The Jets are tough defensively, but I think the Bills come to play and Karlos Williams, Sammy Watkins and Tyrod Taylor should have decent value. As a Jets guy I want it to be a blowout, but I know how Ryan gets his team up for games like this so I think it could be a pretty productive game.
I’d avoid Dallas-Washington like the plague and actually wouldn’t touch Green Bay-Minnesota aside from Adrian Peterson. After 16 weeks of watching the Vikes, I know that it’s unlikely Norv Turner is going to open things up for teddy Bridgewater and the passing offense, and the Packers have been brutal this year. Maybe it’s a barnburner but good luck predicting which Packers player will contribute.
