It sounds like Tony Romo is playing this weekend. How good a bargain do you feel $7500 is for him? Do you have any hesitation?
Chad Parsons: I like Alex Smith and Matt Hasselbeck enough as bargain bin options Tony Romo will not be a high volume play in Week 11. More than Romo himself, I like the upswing for Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and Darren McFadden from the low-ceiling game scripts and red zone opportunities since Romo was out of the lineup.
Alex Miglio: There is plenty of hesitation here. He is coming back from a long layoff, and he's going up against a marauding Dolphins defense line on the road. I expect the Cowboys to try to establish the run here and keep the pressure off Romo. Now, is there a chance Miami's secondary bails him out and gives Romo 300 yards and three touchdowns? Sure. All that to say, Romo is a GPP option at best.
Andrew Garda: I’ll be contrary dude here and say I think Romo comes out firing. Miami’s success against Tyrod Taylor isn’t all that impressive since they got destroyed on the ground. Between Mark Sanchez and Sam Bradford the allowed 392 yards through the air. And of course, everyone gets blown up by Tom Brady. Hell Brian Hoyer dropped 273 yards and three touchdowns on them.
You can throw on them.
Am I a little concerned because of rust? Maybe. Will Darren McFadden run the ball? Yes. But as was mentioned, you have Dez Bryant and Jason Witten to throw to and a hungry team. They’re going to throw the ball plenty. I’d start him pretty confidently.
Maurile Tremblay: I don't think $7,500 is a bargain at all. I think Tony Romo could get up to speed quickly and have a good game, but his $7,500 salary makes him tied for the eighth-most expensive quarterback, and a full $1,000 more expensive than Matthew Stafford, whom I have similarly projected. If you don't like Stafford, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, and Tyrod Taylor are also cheaper than Romo this week.
Devonta Freeman saw his production come back down to earth in the last three games. Tied with Adrian Peterson for the most expensive back at $8600, do you fade him? Or do you think bounces back to the level he played earlier after a week off?
Parsons: I like Freeman's matchup against the Colts, plus the Falcons are at home against a less than 100% Colts offense. The Falcons also have the second-highest team total of the week. Freeman's biggest change in recent weeks has been the reduction of red zone and goal line chances over the last month. I am higher on Freeman than the other top-priced running backs for Week 11.
Miglio: It's tough to tell what to do with Freeman, but his potential game script might make him a worthwhile investment. The Falcons are favored by a good margin at home, and the Colts have given up nine rushing touchdowns on the season to date. At those prices, Peterson is a bit safer, but Freeman should provide decent value this weekend, too.
Garda: I feel like we’ve been touting his game scripts and matchups a lot the last few weeks and it hasn’t gotten us anywhere. As both you guys point out, it’s the same thing this week.
As that’s the case, I think I’m off him and if I am going to spend the cash on a player, it will be Adrian Peterson at that price tag.
Tremblay: I'm still on the Devonta Freeman bandwagon. He continues to be a huge part of the Falcons offense, in both the running game and the passing game, so he continues to have a high floor and a high ceiling. You have to spend those salary-cap dollars somewhere -- it may as well be on fantasy studs like Devonta Freeman.
It’s Brock Osweiler time! Does the Brock Lobster make Demaryius Thomas and his $8100 price tag a bit too shaky for owners? Is there anyone on the Broncos’ squad you think this could help?
Parsons: I am tepid on Demaryius Thomas. The touchdown regression argument is strong for Thomas, but this is an offense struggling in all facets. Without regular red zone trips, the upside of all the offensive components is tempered. I like Osweiler for the run game more than anything else as he will be under center and running the Kubiak offense as intended.
Miglio: Yes, that price is difficult to swallow for Thomas. But Brock Osweiler targeted him often with success last week -- albeit in garbage time -- and Thomas is still a great talent. I would rather use Thomas than anyone else in that offense.
Garda: Both of you guys hit the nail on the head—Thomas is the only guy I would use (especially with Emmanuel Sanders banged up) and I’m also very lukewarm on him (I don’t have that fancy vocabulary you have Chad).
This offense is a mess and I’m not feeling too good about Osweiler in it the first week out. I think Denver finds a way to win (or the Bears, a way to lose) but I’m not using any Broncos this week if I have a choice, even Thomas.
Tremblay: I don't think either Osweiler or Demaryius Thomas are bargains for cash games, but they do both have significant upside potential, and therefore make decent GPP plays in their matchup against Chicago. Those are the only two Broncos I'd consider playing this week.
Are there any stacks this week which could be huge bargains but are being overlooked?
Parsons: Until Austin Seferian-Jenkins or Vincent Jackson returns, I think the Jameis Winston-Mike Evans stack is appealing weekly. Winston is low-cost at $6100 and Evans is WR19 in terms of Week 11 salary. Evans has seen 12, 9, 19, 13 targets the past month and there is no reason to expect a lower floor against the high-pace Eagles.
Miglio: How about Matthew Stafford and Golden Tate? That offense isn't being touted enough against the Oakland Raiders. I like this to be a high-scoring affair with Stafford throwing at least a couple of touchdowns. I have just jinxed the Lions offense.
Garda: I second the Winston/Evans love and offer up Philip Rivers/Stevie Johnson. Most people will likely go towards Antonio Gates, so Johnson is a unique way to go. I am almost tempted to go Rivers/Johnson/Gates but hesitate because Gates hasn’t been in the end zone for a long time.
Tremblay: The two cheap stacks I like are Matt Hasselbeck to Andre Johnson and Joe Flacco to Chris Givens. The Hasselbeck-to-Johnson connection worked earlier in the season when it hooked up for two touchdowns in Week 5, and both players are dirt cheap. Chris Givens is growing into a larger role in the Ravens passing offense and is developing a rapport with Joe Flacco. With either of those combinations, you'll have plenty of salary-cap dollars left over to pay up for elite running backs or an elite tight end (or both).
Mark Sanchez ($6000), Brock Osweiler ($5900) and Matt Hasselbeck ($4500) all get a start this week. Which one is the most likely to shine and which one is the most likely to implode?
Parsons: I like Hasselbeck most of the trio. The matchup is not optimal, but the 47.5 over/under is the second-highest of the week and Hasselbeck has a full complement of weapons. While not a high upside option, Hasselbeck is a solid bet for 200+ yards and at least a touchdown. At $1400 and $1500 less than Sanchez and Osweiler respectively, I cannot justify the additional salary.
Miglio: Matt Hasselbeck should be the automatic implosion, but we've seen him perform admirably -- even while sick -- earlier this season. The Atlanta defense isn't exactly the 2001 Baltimore Ravens, either. At his price, Hasselbeck might be a fantastic GPP option.
When discussing implosions, Mark Sanchez's ears start burning.
Garda: I’d stack them The Hasselbeck, The Sanchize and Brock Lobster. Hasselbeck because I think he has the highest floor, then Sanchez because he has looked decent in Chip Kelly’s offense. Osweiler is a guy we have little to go on in terms of figuring out his value. That, even more than the impending potential implosions, makes me hesitate with him.
Tremblay: Hasselbeck is dirt cheap at $4,500 and will likely be playing from behind. Whatever stats he gets just in garbage time should pay his entire salary. Even without regard to salary, I like Hasselbeck better than Osweiler or Sanchez this week. It's a bonus that he's the cheapest of the three by a decent margin.
The guy I trust least is Osweiler. He's got a decent ceiling, but he's got by far the lowest floor of the three. The Broncos could win with defense and their running game (with perhaps a lot of punting). There are plenty of game scenarios that do not involve letting Osweiler air it out.
