FanDuel GPP Domination - Week 11

A Deeper Look at Who to Target for FanDuel GPPs this Week

For those of you who are new to Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS), GPPs are "Guaranteed Prize Pool" Tournaments with larger, sometimes very large prize amounts. FanDuel is one of the biggest sites in DFS and offers some of the biggest prizes in the industry. The goal of this article is to guide you towards some players that could help you take home that big prize. Footballguys offers a ton of resources to help you build that winning lineup, and this is just one of the many - but I hope that you will find it a valuable resource and check this article out on a regular basis.

Before we talk about the players for this week, we cannot completely ignore cash game plays. Typically a "GPP player" for the week is one that can score big or score terribly - the classic "boom or bust" player. A wide receiver that can catch two deep balls for two scores can get you 30+ points - or he might wind up with nada. Chasing 1-3 big plays can win you a tournament, but filling out a roster completely with these types of options will likely leave you well short of first place. That is why you cannot ignore the cash game plays each week as well, as combining the two groups is what usually leads to those big victories in GPP contests. So, expect some mention of players who are cash game plays each week, as well as some players that could be considered for both GPP and cash games.

Note - this article is not intended to provide a fully exhaustive list of every possible player. That would be an immensely long group of players. These are just some of the best options I see for GPPs this week when considering value, price, upside, and matchups.

Second note - Keep in mind the multiplier target(s) you want to hit for both cash and GPP / tournaments on FanDuel. In general, you are looking for 2x in cash (twice the cost of the player in $1,000 increments) and 3x in GPP. That means a player that costs $6,000 should produce 12 or more points in cash and 18 or more in GPPs.

Now, on with this week's top options:

GENERAL THOUGHTS ON WEEK 11

 

To help you out each week, I will give you some general thoughts as we progress through the season (you can also find more on the weekly Power Grid show (link to be updated Friday - available on the DFS home page) - be sure to watch and subscribe!). For this week, there are lots of options again, but many of the decisions will hinge upon scratches that will happen this weekend, so expect some updates here on Saturday.

As always, keep an eye out for both injury and weather updates for Sunday, and also monitor the Vegas lines for any movement.  If the totals start to drop, expect adverse weather conditions for passing and kicking games in those contests.

I see Week 11 as a great week for GPPs, as there are just a few options at the secondary spots (defense, kicker) but lots of choices at the skill positions.  Building up stacks and then putting key players and pieces around those key players feels like the right approach – similar to back when I first put down my general GPP thought process with “DFS Tetris” last year.  I have quite the long list of quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers this week, and even the cash game options look to have tournament upside.  Fading the highly owned options in bigger tournaments is definitely in play this week with so many viable options.   

Here are a few general references I will be using as the season progresses:

Footballguys' DFS Week 11 Page

Vegas Value Chart

Interactive Value Chart

Projecting Ownership

Normalized Stength of Schedule (NSOS)

Please note that if a player isn't mentioned in the write-ups but is in the table, it does not mean that I like the player more in the write-ups. The discussion sections are to add more detail, support, and clarity for those players mentioned, but all of the picks in the tables are viable options if they are ranked.

Now, without further ado, here are the players I like the most this week.

 

QUARTERBACKS

Name Salary Cash Rank GPP Rank Ownership Comments
Carson Wentz 8700 3 6 Med-High I love the Eagles to take care of business in Dallas. Only thing holding me back here is that Philadelphia may jump out ahead and want to give touches to Jay Ajayi
Tom Brady 8600 1 4 High Love him against Oakland in Mexico City, as I expect lots of points and passes
Dak Prescott 8500 n/a 9 Medium Without Ezekiel Elliott, Prescott gets a boost, but his offensive line is a mess and the Eagles are coming to town
Drew Brees 8100 n/a 10 Med-High Always a GPP option, especially at home, but the Saints are more of a run first team now with a good defense
Derek Carr 8000 n/a 3 Medium Shootout looming in Mexico - can Carr keep up with Brady?
Jared Goff 7900 n/a 1 Low I am expecting a shootout with the Vikings, which is sneaky with expected low ownership for both teams.
Alex Smith 7900 2 5 Med-High Second choice for cash as I love all the skill players for the Chiefs
Blake Bortles 7500 n/a 12 Low The only way to beat Cleveland is through the air, but this is Bortles we are talking about
Case Keenum 7300 n/a 2 Low Similar story to Goff, and Keenum is hot and allegedly fighting to keep his job
Jay Cutler 6600 n/a 8 Low You know it is a GPP article when I recommend Jay Cutler, but the Buccaneers give up a lot of fantasy points to quarterbacks
Ryan Fitzpatrick 6400 n/a 7 Medium Miami defense is not good at all, and I like Fitzpatrick to get Mike Evans and Cameron Brate a touchdown each
Blaine Gabbert 6000 n/a 11 Low Minimum priced quarterback against a bad Houston defense - what can possibly go wrong?
 

CHALK TALK: Three guys are at the top of this list, and they will be on many cash lineups for Week 11.  Tom Brady is in a great spot against the Raiders, who struggle to stop any passing game.  New England is likely to come out firing in this one, and the game will be in Mexico City, which will hurt Oakland as they did not practice at altitude this week (New England did, as they stayed in Denver after last week’s win over the Broncos). 

Alex Smith is the next option, as he has three pass catchers this week that are all in a great spot (Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt).  Kansas City travels to New Jersey to take on a Giants team that appears to have mailed it in on defense after a 1-9 start on the year.  Look for Smith to spread it around to all three targets and push for a three touchdown pass effort.

The third chalk option looks to be Carson Wentz, who will be popular as a “hammer” in lineups on FanDuel with him starting on Sunday Night Football in Dallas.  The Eagles can move to 9-1 and take a deeper strangle hold over the NFC East with a victory over the Cowboys.  Wentz has been fantastic this year but there are reasons to fade him (Dallas may struggle, and Jay Ajayi could push for more production).

GPP:  As I mentioned earlier, there are a lot of options this week.  I could write a lot about all of them, but who has that kind of time (or time to read about everyone as well).  That’s why I put quick snippets in the charts above.  All of the passers listed have GPP upside – even the darts at the bottom of list (I’m talking about you, Blake Bortles and Blaine Gabbert). 

Three games are in my sights this week as potential shootouts, and only one of them has a high total.  New England and Oakland should score a lot of points, and while many will go after Patriot players (including myself), do not forget about the Raiders and Derek Carr.  He will be forced to throw early and often in this one. 

The next two are going to be less popular, which I am 100% ok with given that I want lower owned, high upside quarterbacks.  Minnesota hosts the Rams this week, and many are going to look at the Over/Under of 46 and expect a lower scoring game.  In actuality, the Rams are the highest scoring team in the NFL and the pace of play for both teams is extremely high (both are Top 3 according to Football Outsiders).  That leans towards Jared Goff and also Case Keenum, who had four touchdown passes last week and is rumored to be on the hot seat somehow with Teddy Bridgewater getting close to being ready after missing more than a year.

The final game may surprise you – as it certainly surprises me.  Miami and Tampa Bay are not good at defense, and I love receiving targets for both teams.  That means both Ryan Fitzpatrick (again) and Jay Cutler are options, no matter how unpalatable those choices may be.  If Mike Evans and Cameron Brate have good games, Fitzpatrick has to be a consideration.  Similarly if you like DeVante Parker or even Kenyan Drake to score receiving touchdowns, Cutler is their quarterback. 


RUNNING BACKS

Name Salary Cash Rank GPP Rank Ownership Comments
Todd Gurley 8700 3 5 High Only RB more expensive than Bell, tough price to pay
Kareem Hunt 8700 5 7 Very High In a prime spot on the road at the Giants in a game that Kansas City should run away with in the second half
Mark Ingram II 8200 4 6 Very High The Saints are a running team (with a good defense), and the Saints are favored at home
LeSean McCoy 8000 6 8 High While everyone focuses on the new Bills' quarterback, McCoy is primed for 30 touches this week
Melvin Gordon III 7800 1 3 High Austin Ekeler does not scare me off of Gordon, who should run (and catch) all day against the Bills
Alvin Kamara 7500 7 9 High Kamara is part of the running back 1-2 punch for New Orleans, and his floor is roughly 15 touches and 75 yards
Jordan Howard 7400 n/a 11 Medium Recency bias will go against him, but he is a viable option at home against Detroit
Jay Ajayi 6900 8 2 Med-Low Ajayi will be completely overlooked this week with the Eagles coming off of a bye
Chris Thompson 6800 n/a 12 Medium Washington is down to two RBs now, and Thompson gets plenty of catches
Jerick McKinnon 6400 n/a 13 Low Another pass-catching back that I like against the Rams
Orleans Darkwa 5900 n/a 4 Low Getting plenty of carries and there are few options for the Giants on offense. Not a ton of upside, but solid option
Joe Mixon 5900 n/a 14 Low Finally getting the touches a feature back should get, and Denver is not a scary defense any longer
Rex Burkhead 5700 2 1 Low Burkhead is the top back for the Patriots now (pay attention!) and he is in for a big game agianst the Raiders
Duke Johnson Jr 5600 n/a 10 Very Low Aside from Johnson, I have no idea how the Browns move the ball against Jacksonville

CHALK TALK: Last week all the chalk seemed to burn us in DFS, so there is going to be some negative bias in going after the bigger names at running back.  The good news is that there are some strong options at the cheaper end of the spectrum, but the chalk will still be towards the upper end of the price range – for the most part. 

Kareem Hunt looks to be the top option this week, even though he is on the road.  Kansas City travels to the Giants and are big favorites according to Vegas, and that implies a strong game for a feature back as he will get the ball in the fourth quarter to try and run out the clock.  The problem is that Hunt will be challenged by Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill for end zone chances, so there is some risk in banking on a score for Hunt.

Melvin Gordon III looks to be a great spot with the Chargers favored at home against the Bills.  Los Angeles is favored and Gordon is expected to be the lead back once again despite rookie Austin Ekeler scoring twice last week on receiving plays.  With Ekeler fumbling late and nearly costing the Chargers against Jacksonville, Gordon will be leaned on more by Los Angeles and the matchup is fantastic against Buffalo, who gave up 298 rushing yards last week to New Orleans (and 194 more the prior week to the Jets).  Even if Ekeler spells Gordon, there should be plenty of value for both against Buffalo.

The cheapest chalk option is Rex Burkhead, who is becoming a feature back for New England.  As Ryan Hester pointed out in Trendspotting this week, Burkhead has major upside for the Patriots going forwards and for a bargain price of $5,700.  He is one of my favorite value plays this week with big upside.

GPP:  Todd Gurley is a guy who will be highly owned, but I am still using him in GPPs because I want to pair him with Jared Goff.  I do not think many will look to do a stack like this, which offers uniqueness towards two players that I believe have higher upside in a Rams-Vikings game I expect to be high scoring.  Goff will already be a lower owned option, and many will look to stack him with either Robert Woods or Cooper Kupp

New Orleans is a running team with a defensive mindset.  Let everyone else chase that big Drew Brees game and keep on using Mark Ingram II and Alvin Kamara.  Both are strong options against a reeling Washington team, with a slight nod towards Ingram with the Saints likely leading in the fourth quarter. 

Pass catching running backs are not commonly sought after on FanDuel, and that could be a mistake this week.  I already mentioned Burkhead and Kamara, but Jerick McKinnon and Chris Thompson could both see heavy workloads against the Rams and Saints, respectively.  Neither will be highly owned but the touches and touchdown equity for both offer good upside.

The back I saved for last is the one who will be the hammer for a lot of strong GPP lineups on Sunday.  The Eagles are going to look to get Jay Ajayi rolling as their new feature back, and they could be ahead on Sunday Night Football against Dallas.  Ajayi was already productive two weeks ago against Denver, and now he has had two weeks to get accustomed to the playbook.  At just $6,900, Ajayi could easily break 3x (and the slate) if he gets 100 yards and a touchdown.      

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

Name Salary Cash Rank GPP Rank Ownership Comments
Michael Thomas 8600 7 5 Med-High Most consistent receiver for the Saints (8 or more targets in all but one game, with 10+ five times) - just struggling for touchdowns
Mike Evans 7800 5 1 High Evans is back from his suspension and now gets to face Xavien Howard for Miami, a matchup that gives him a decided advantage
DeAndre Hopkins 7700 8 8 Medium Hopkins gets so many targets it is hard to ignore, but Patrick Peterson is not a cornerback to target
Adam Thielen 7700 9 6 Medium I like the MIN-LAR game to be a shootout, and both Thielen and Diggs have plus matchups against a tough Rams defense. Hard to predict a huge game for either Vikings WR, but both should see plenty of targets.
Brandin Cooks 7700 11 2 High Top wide receiver for Tom Brady in a game where New England projects to score 30 points. Without Chris Hogan, sign me up.
Tyreek Hill 7600 3 3 Med-High Explosive player against a Giants defense that has mailed it in. I love all the Chiefs this week
Michael Crabtree 7500 10 7 Medium Stephon Gilmore is not a cornerback that frightens me, and I still refuse to believe that Crabtree is not the WR1 for Oakland
Stefon Diggs 7500 14 11 Medium See Thielen.
Amari Cooper 7300 13 10 Medium Everyone is talking about Cooper's emergence as the new top receiver for Oakland, but I am not 100% behind it. He is still a strong option, but I still look to Crabtreee for touchdowns
Larry Fitzgerald 6900 2 n/a Very High Has shown a lot of rapport with Blaine Gabbert (24 targets in two starts) and gets a good CB matchup
Robert Woods 6900 12 9 Low Woods should get the most favorable DB matchup from Minnesota (Trae Waynes) and I expect a big day from Jared Goff and a shootout
Marvin Jones Jr 6700 n/a n/a Low Looking for a nice bounce back game for Jones after a weak performance against Cleveland last Sunday. Jones draws Kyle Fuller of the Bears, who is not good at all (89th CB according to ProFootballFocus)
Sterling Shepard 6500 4 n/a Very High Who else is going to catch a pass from Eli Manning aside form Shepard and TE Engram?
DeVante Parker 6200 6 4 High Jay Cutler has a strong matchup, and I like Parker to find the end zone and rack up big numbers agianst Tampa Bay
Cooper Kupp 5600 n/a 13 Low Same number of targets (22) as Woods the past three weeks, and Minnesota does not shadow cover. Both WRs are in play
Jamison Crowder 5400 1 n/a Medium Washington is banged up (again) and Crowder has seen massive targets his past two games (24). With Josh Doctson likely to see Lattimore in coverage, I see a lot of action for Crowder
Bruce Ellington 4600 15 n/a Low Without Will Fuller V, Ellington should start for Houston. Then again, his quarterback is Tom Savage
Keelan Cole 4500 n/a 14 Very Low Cole has played 159 snaps the last three weeks, and the Jaguars will need to throw agianst Cleveland
DeDe Westbrook 4500 n/a 12 Very Low The rookie who nearly won the Heisman has been running with the first string in practice for three weeks now

CHALK TALK: This week feels like a trickier week for wide receiver chalk.  Larry Fitzgerald gets a great matchup against Houston, while Sterling Shepard is the only wide receiver for the Giants of any consequence.  Mike Evans also returns from suspension for a great matchup against Miami.  These are the three top ownership guys this week as projected by Steve Buzzard, but I do not think that they will be the three wideouts in the most common lineup in cash this week.

Value has to be found somewhere, and I think it will come from RB2 and probably WR2 and/or WR3 this week.  Jamison Crowder has had a ton of targets (24) in his past two games, and his matchup out of the slot against New Orleans looks like a very good one this week.  Combining Crowder with two of the three options above will likely be the most common cash wide receiver core for Week 11.

Michael Thomas is another cash-type receiver for Week 11, as he sees a ton of targets every week from Drew Brees, yet he has just two touchdowns despite 59 catches this year.  Similarly, DeAndre Hopkins sees a ton of targets from Tom Savage but he will be blanketed by Patrick Peterson.  Both are viable cash game receivers but offer little upside.

GPP:  Once again there are a lot of options at wide receiver this week, even with just 12 games to consider.  The three games I mentioned earlier that I like (NE-OAK, TB-MIA and Rams-Vikings) all offer good wide receiver options with GPP upside.  Brandin Cooks is the top receiver for New England and offers upside against the Raiders, but he will be competing to find the end zone with Rob Gronkowski and Rex Burkhead.  Oakland’s receivers are both worth consideration, as Amari Cooper has plenty of targets (38) the past three weeks but Michael Crabtree sees more looks near the goal line.  The Rams offer up two receivers (Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods) that will also split their value with one another, as will Minnesota’s duo of Adam Thelien and Stefon Diggs.  All of these options have two-touchdown upside but have risk in that there is competition for the ball with teammates.

The third game offers one of the better wide receiver touchdown equity splits for me. DeVante Parker should see more touchdown chances than Jarvis Landry, and the same goes for Mike Evans over DeSean Jackson.  Third options exist for both teams (Kenny Stills, Cameron Brate) which can lower their respective values, as can their quarterbacks capable of laying an egg in any given week.

So where can we turn?  I really like Tyreek Hill this week against the Giants.  New York has given up on defense at this point, as the 1-9 Giants are ready to call it a season.  Even if it gets windy in New Jersey, Alex Smith will get the ball to Hill in areas where he can catch and run it in for a big touchdown play. 

The other team to consider is Jacksonville.  I know, I know – that means trusting Blake Bortles, and I don’t ever want to do that.  But, the only way to beat Cleveland consistently is by throwing the ball, and someone is going to have a big day for the Jaguars.  Rookie DeDe Westbrook has already said he is getting 200 yards, so why not take at least one shot that he gets at least halfway there?  Either Westbrook or Keelan Cole have a chance for a big game that can hit 3x value and open up salary cap room for the rest of the roster. 

 

TIGHT ENDS

Name Salary Cash Rank GPP Rank Ownership Comments
Rob Gronkowski 8200 2 1 High Great matchup against Oakland, but lots of viable targets for Tom Brady to look to in Mexico City
Zach Ertz 8000 4 6 High Dallas will be without Sean Lee and the Eagles' big target should be ready to go after three weeks off
Travis Kelce 7500 1 3 Very High Ideal matchup against the Giants - will the TE TD streak continue?
Evan Engram 7400 3 4 Med-High Aside from Sterling Shepard, the only other viable target for the Giants in the passing game
Jared Cook 5600 5 5 High Solid GPP play for the Raiders as they will be chasing points against New England
Cameron Brate 5500 n/a 2 Low Solid red zone target, but does he have enough rapport with Fitzpatrick?
Tyler Kroft 5300 n/a 7 Very Low Tight ends against Denver have been a thing all year
Marcedes Lewis 4900 n/a 8 Med-Low Cleveland, not so good against tight ends

CHALK TALK: The main recipe for tight end on FanDuel is rather simple this week – pay up.  Now, picking which tight end you want for a big price is a different story.  Travis Kelce is up first as he gets a shot at the Giants, the team that has given up a touchdown to tight ends for 10 weeks in a row going back to Week 17 last season.  I really like Kelce to extend that streak this week.

It is rare when Rob Gronkowski and Zach Ertz are considered as pivots, but that is where we land in Week 11.  New England has the highest implied point total as the Patriots head to Mexico City, and the Eagles head to Dallas to take on the Cowboys this week.  Both Dallas and Oakland are average when looking at normalized strength of schedule against tight ends, but they both just played Kelce and gave up 4+ catches and a score.  That looks to be the floor for both Ertz and Gronkowski this week.

Rounding out the top end of tight end options is rookie Evan Engram, who is really only one of two viable receivers (Sterling Shepard) for the Giants.  Kansas City has only given up one touchdown to tight ends this season, but the best they have faced has been Jared Cook who racked up over 100 yards in Week 7.  Speaking of Cook, he is not a bad tournament option to get exposure to Oakland and the game with the highest implied point total on Sunday.

GPP: Tournament options are thinner this week, but they are cheaper.  Cameron Brate offers a great pivot, and Miami is one of the worst against the tight end position (29th overall normalized strength of schedule).  We all know that Denver is pitiful against tight ends, and Tyler Kroft is a solid red zone target.  Lastly, Cleveland is also in the “not good against tight ends” category, making Marcedes Lewis an intriguing lower owned option in big tournaments.  Overall, it looks like a strong week to take a high priced option at the tight end spot, unless you are stacking or looking to build differently for the sake of uniqueness.


KICKERS

Name Salary Cash Rank GPP Rank Ownership Comments
Greg Zuerlein 5300 3 3 Low Expensive, but in a dome and kicks for the highest scoring offense
Stephen Gostkowski 5100 1 1 High Extra elevation in Mexico City, and a big implied point total for New England
Will Lutz 5000 4 2 High Good pivot from Gostkowski and meets all the criteria
George Tavechhio 4700 n/a 5 Low Also in Mexico City, but Oakland may not be able to keep up with the Patriots
Nick Novak 4500 2 4 High Cheapest viable kicker that I like this week. Home favorite and almost meets all criteria

CHALK and GPP: These general kicker comments will likely be repeated week after week, but they are important so take note. Yes, FanDuel is the only DFS site left that uses a kicker, but you have to deal with it if you are playing on FanDuel. Sorry, that's how it goes. But there's some good news - you can actually make smart, informed decisions that can go a long way towards increasing your bankroll. First, there are four general criteria in picking a kicker:

  1. Pick a kicker who is playing at home
  2. Pick a kicker who is in a game where his team is favored
  3. Pick a kicker whose team is expected to score at least 24 points.
  4. Pick a kicker who will not be in bad weather.

Just following that above recipe will help you quite a bit. Remember - a 50+ yard field goal is five points or almost as much as a touchdown. That's significant.

Week 11 is pretty simple – if you can afford Stephen Gostkowski, play him.  Do not think twice.  New England has the highest implied team total and Gostkowski will be kicking at altitude, so the likelihood of at least one 50+ yard field goal is rather high (no pun intended).  He is the kicker you want.

If you get pressed for salary, Nick Novak checks ALMOST all the boxes.  The Chargers are not projected to get to 24 points, but 23 is close enough.  Taking a kicker as a home favorite in sunny Southern California is not a bad option at only $4,500.

In between lies George Tavecchio, who will also be kicking at altitude in Mexico City, but there is a reasonable probability that Oakland falls behind by 14+ points to New England.  In that scenario, field goal attempts go way down and extra points may also fall off the table if the team has to go for two.  My preferred GPP pivots would be to Will Lutz (at home in a dome) or Greg Zuerlein (great spot, just expensive).  Both are solid options, but if I can afford Zuerlein, odds are I am sticking with Gostkowski.

 

TEAM DEFENSES

Name Salary Cash Rank GPP Rank Ownership Comments
Jacksonville 5600 2 3 High At Cleveland. What else do you need to know?
Kansas City 5100 3 4 Med-High The Giants have given up on defense - can the offense be far behind?
Detroit 4800 n/a 6 Low On the road at Chicago, but a very opportunistic defense
Philadelphia 4700 n/a 2 Low The Eagles are coming off a bye and facing Dallas at the right time
New Orleans 4500 n/a 5 Med-High I don't like the Over/Under in this one as Washington looks like an offense that is about to fall apart
Los Angeles Chargers 4300 1 1 Med-High Cheap home favorite facing a rookie quarterback

CHALK and GPP: Now that Buffalo has gone to Nate Peterman at quarterback, the Los Angeles Chargers are going to be very popular this week, especially at the bargain price of $4,300.  Jacksonville is the other end of the spectrum at $5,600, but I struggle to see how Cleveland does much of anything on offense this week.  These are your two chalk options, and they are very far apart on the pricing scale.  Both are strong options, however, but just know that they will be higher owned.

For tournaments, there are a few pivots to consider.  Detroit heads to Chicago having scored six touchdowns on the season and now are set to face Mitch Trubisky.  I love that they will be lower owned and not that popular, even at a cheaper price of $4,800.  New Orleans also looks good at just $4,500 against a Washington team that just put their starting running back (Rob Kelley) on IR.  The other team I really like that will be off the radar is Philadelphia.  The Eagles head to Dallas to take on a Cowboys team that just gave up eight sacks to Atlanta and will be missing Tyron Smith at tackle (although that may be seen as a positive).  I like Philadelphia to move to 9-1 and dominate Dallas this week, putting tons of pressure on Dak Prescott all night long.

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com


More articles from Jeff Pasquino

See all

More articles on: Daily FF

See all

More articles on: FanDuel

See all