FanDuel GPP Domination - Week 10

A Deeper Look at Who to Target for FanDuel GPPs this Week

For those of you who are new to Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS), GPPs are "Guaranteed Prize Pool" Tournaments with larger, sometimes very large prize amounts. FanDuel is one of the biggest sites in DFS and offers some of the biggest prizes in the industry. The goal of this article is to guide you towards some players that could help you take home that big prize. Footballguys offers a ton of resources to help you build that winning lineup, and this is just one of the many - but I hope that you will find it a valuable resource and check this article out on a regular basis.

Before we talk about the players for this week, we cannot completely ignore cash game plays. Typically a "GPP player" for the week is one that can score big or score terribly - the classic "boom or bust" player. A wide receiver that can catch two deep balls for two scores can get you 30+ points - or he might wind up with nada. Chasing 1-3 big plays can win you a tournament, but filling out a roster completely with these types of options will likely leave you well short of first place. That is why you cannot ignore the cash game plays each week as well, as combining the two groups is what usually leads to those big victories in GPP contests. So, expect some mention of players who are cash game plays each week, as well as some players that could be considered for both GPP and cash games.

Note - this article is not intended to provide a fully exhaustive list of every possible player. That would be an immensely long group of players. These are just some of the best options I see for GPPs this week when considering value, price, upside, and matchups.

Second note - Keep in mind the multiplier target(s) you want to hit for both cash and GPP / tournaments on FanDuel. In general, you are looking for 2x in cash (twice the cost of the player in $1,000 increments) and 3x in GPP. That means a player that costs $6,000 should produce 12 or more points in cash and 18 or more in GPPs.

Now, on with this week's top options:

 

GENERAL THOUGHTS ON WEEK 10

To help you out each week, I will give you some general thoughts as we progress through the season (you can also find more on the weekly Power Grid show (link to be updated Friday - available on the DFS home page) - be sure to watch and subscribe!). For this week, there are lots of options again, but many of the decisions will hinge upon scratches that will happen this weekend, so expect some updates here on Saturday.

This is a challenging week in that there are so many ways to go.  The first question is at quarterback, where you can go cheap to Ryan Fitzpatrick or even Jacoby Brissett.  Strong options abound in the $8-9K price range, with several different quarterbacks to choose from.  The story is similar at running back, where there are lots of good choices – predominantly at the pricier end of the spectrum – but at all price points there are good values, and injury reports over the next 48 hours could make some even more appealing.

For starting points, at least regarding chalk, kicker and defense are the way to go.  Taking the top options at kicker and defense gives you a foundation on which to build (or you can try a method that I have used in the past, which is to take the most expensive option at each position and then build off of that, knowing you can always pivot to find better bargains if you need the cap space).  Tight end boils down to mid-range options or Rob Gronkowski, so I would recommend building with each option and see how you like the results.  Wide receivers are scarcer, but in GPPs your stacks should solve some of those selections.  Lastly, given all the running backs, filling in the pieces that fit at the position with the remaining budget after filling every other spot feels like the smart way to construct this week.  

As always, keep an eye out for both injury and weather updates for Sunday, and also monitor the Vegas lines for any movement.  If the totals start to drop, expect adverse weather conditions for passing and kicking games in those contests.

 

Here are a few general references I will be using as the season progresses:

Footballguys' DFS Week 10 Page

Vegas Value Chart

Interactive Value Chart

Projecting Ownership

Normalized Stength of Schedule (NSOS)

Please note that if a player isn't mentioned in the write-ups but is in the table, it does not mean that I like the player more in the write-ups. The discussion sections are to add more detail, support, and clarity for those players mentioned, but all of the picks in the tables are viable options if they are ranked.

Now, without further ado, here are the players I like the most this week:

 

QUARTERBACKS

Name Salary Cash Rank GPP Rank Ownership Comments
Dak Prescott 8800 1 2 Medium Without Ezekiel Elliott, Prescott gets a boost, but he may get a downgrade if Dez Bryant is out
Tom Brady 8500 2 1 Med-Low Brady at low ownership against a Denver defense that just gave up 51 points? Sign me up
Drew Brees 8500 n/a 3 Low Cold and clear in Buffalo, and a good matchup for Brees
Jared Goff 8200 n/a 8 Medium The Rams have the highest projected total, but they can run and pass for points
Matthew Stafford 8200 3 4 High Detroit has a great matchup at home against Cleveland, but will the Browns push Stafford to have a big day?
Matt Ryan 7700 5 6 Med-High Highest scoring game of the week is supposed to be Atlanta-Dallas. Can Ryan and Julio step up?
Ben Roethlisberger 7600 n/a 7 Med-High Roethlisberger may have bad home / road splits, but in a dome his numbers are pretty good
Jacoby Brissett 6600 6 5 Low Pittsburgh's pass defense is overrated, and Brissett has played well as the starter
Ryan Fitzpatrick 6100 4 9 Low This is your big decision - go cheap at QB for Fitzpatrick, or pay up?


CHALK TALK:
 To Fitz or not to Fitz, that is the question.  Ryan Fitzpatrick is that cheap quarterback that is very enticing for cash lineups, as he affords salary cap relief for those looking to spend up at other positions.  That makes it very appealing to spend up at quarterback in tournaments.

Matthew Stafford is the most likely popular pick for those not looking to go cheap at quarterback.  The Lions host Cleveland this week, and even though Detroit is on a short week and the Browns are coming off of a bye, Stafford should still have a field day against a funnel defense strong against the run but near the bottom of every category against the pass.

GPP:  The Denver Broncos gave up 51 points last week to Philadelphia, and now Denver plays host to Tom Brady after a bye week.  Brady’s ownership looks to be crazy low (around 6%), which makes it very attractive to consider a Brady – Gronkowski stack. 

As usual, ownership projects to be spread around at quarterback given that you can only choose one each week.  Dak Prescott looks to be a fantastic spot with a huge downgrade for his running game, so look for Prescott to run more himself and also throw quite a bit against the Falcons.  If Prescott also has Dez Bryant active, his value only increases, so be sure to monitor that injury situation.

Jared Goff had a monster week in Week 9 (311 yards, four touchdowns) against the Giants, and now he heads home to host a hapless Houston franchise.  The only thing standing between big numbers and Goff in Week 10 is the likelihood of a balanced offensive attack.  If Houston can put up some sort of fight on offense, Goff could push for another strong game – which is why if you stack Goff and a wide receiver, be sure to use DeAndre Hopkins of the Texans (or Will Fuller V).

 

RUNNING BACKS

Name Salary Cash Rank GPP Rank Ownership Comments
Todd Gurley 9600 n/a 1 Med-High Only RB more expensive than Bell, tough price to pay
Le'Veon Bell 9400 3 6 Very High Workhorse back, but seeing fewer targets
Leonard Fournette 8700 5 5 Med-High Fournette hasn't played in weeks, but he is healthy and ready to face a great matchup (Chargers)
LeSean McCoy 8300 n/a 9 Med-High If New Orleans jumps out ahead, McCoy's role could go down. Still viable in all formats, but I am not on him as much as other options
Melvin Gordon III 7600 4 7 Med-Low The only way to beat Jacksonville is to run, or throw short. That is all about Gordon
Jordan Howard 7200 1 3 Med-High Could see 25+ touches easily against Green Bay at home
Alvin Kamara 7000 n/a 8 Medium Great script ahead for Kamara in what I see as a probable shootout with Buffalo
Bilal Powell 6000 2 2 Very Low (for now) IF Matt Forte is out, Powell has RB1 upside for cheap
Orleans Darkwa 5300 6 4 Low San Francisco is terrible against the run, and Darkwa is the main back now for the Giants
Ezekiel Elliott   n/a n/a n/a OUT


CHALK TALK:
 Now that news is out that Matt Forte will not play on Sunday, the most likely configuration of two running backs for most lineups will be a high-priced RB1 (such as Le'Veon Bell) and Bilal Powell.  Powell is in a strong spot against a Tampa Bay team that has allowed 151+ yards on the ground in three of the last four contests, plus Powell is a strong receiver.  Expect a lot of Bell-Powell combos in cash on Sunday.

GPP:  Pivoting away from Bell is a great way to differentiate this week. Several backs offer big upside for Week 10, starting with Leonard Fournette.  Jacksonville takes on the Chargers and Fournette has been out for three weeks, first due to injury then a bye and finally a suspension in Week 9 from the coach.  Odds are he will be highly motivated to play well this week.  Alternatively, Melvin Gordon III in the same game looks to be in a strong spot as Jacksonville is strong against the pass but gives up 4.9 yards per carry.  Gordon is the best path to a win for the Chargers, so expect to see him get a lot of touches.

I could go on and on about running backs in great spots this week, as there are many.  Jordan Howard is a home favorite against Green Bay.  Orleans Darkwa gets a dream matchup in San Francisco against the worst run defense in the league.  Todd Gurley gets Houston at home in a game where the Rams project to score 29 points and are double digit favorites – and Gurley only needed 18 touches last week so he is well rested.  Even Alvin Kamara is in a favorable spot at Buffalo, so there are lots of good options at running back this week.  For that reason, as I said earlier, I recommend filling in the RB spots last when constructing your GPP lineups this week unless you are madly in love with one of these guys.  All of the backs on the chart above have 3x upside or more, so just take the players that give you the rest of your lineup that you want.

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

Name Salary Cash Rank GPP Rank Ownership Comments
Antonio Brown 9300 1 8 Very High Stud WR in a great matchup, clear #1 WR overall
Julio Jones 8000 7 4 Very High Highest scoring game of the week is supposed to be Atlanta-Dallas. Can Ryan and Julio step up?
A.J. Green 7900 4 1 High Great matchup against Tennessee, and strong narrative
DeAndre Hopkins 7600 n/a 9 Medium 16 targets last week from Tom Savage, and Houston likely will be trailing
Michael Thomas 7600 5 3 Medium Buffalo-Saints could be a shootout, as Tyrod Taylor plays well at home and Brees can throw 400 yards on any Sunday
Dez Bryant 7500 n/a n/a Medium Could be out this week - watch FBG injury updates
Golden Tate 7400 n/a 5 High Detroit has an ideal matchup at home against Cleveland, but who gets more production, Tate or Jones?
Adam Thielen 7000 11 12 Med-Low I expect him to work out of the slot, which is the best matchup against Washington
JuJu Smith-Schuster 6500 n/a 11 Medium Ben Roethlisberger has confidence in the rookie receiver
Marvin Jones Jr 6400 3 10 High Detroit has an ideal matchup at home against Cleveland, but who gets more production, Tate or Jones?
DeSean Jackson 6300 10 2 Medium WR1 this week with Mike Evans suspended, but could see shadow coverage
Robert Woods 6200 6 6 Med-Low Had a big week with Jared Goff last week - can he do it again?
Cooper Kupp 5900 n/a 7 Med-Low Great home run pairing with Jared Goff
Sterling Shepard 5700 3 13 Medium The Giants are out of receiving options after Shepard and TE Engram
Deonte Thompson 4800 n/a 14 Very Low Long history with Tyrod Taylor, and big upside
Adam Humphries 4800 9 15 Low Will likely start with Mike Evans suspended
Terrance Williams 4600 8* 16 Low (for now) In play if Dez Bryant is out
Chris Godwin 4500 n/a 17 Low Deep GPP play for Tampa Bay - high risk
DeDe Westbrook 4500 n/a 18 Very Low If he is active I love this (very big) GPP play, as the rookie has been running with the first string in practice for two weeks now

CHALK TALK: One of the big conundrums this week in roster construction is how to fit in all the studs you want for your lineup.  Both Antonio Brown (at Indianapolis) and A.J. Green (at Tennessee) have great matchups, plus Green has extra incentive to rack up production with younger cornerbacks like Jalen Ramsey spewing derogatory remarks.  Both of these top notch receivers are poised for big games, but again, how do you make one or both fit?

That is where the value guys for the week come in.  First, if Dez Bryant is out, Terrance Williams jumps up the list.  Sterling Shepard is the only real receiver left for the Giants as they head to San Francisco, and Adam Humphries should be the WR2 and start for Tampa Bay with Mike Evans (and to some extent, brings DeSean Jackson into possible cash discussion). 

All of the above make it a very interesting week for lineup construction, and opens the door to both value plays and upside players who are quite viable for tournaments.

GPP:  I easily could have put both starting wide receivers for Detroit in the chalk discussion, but I would rather talk about them together.  The Lions are in a prime spot to throw a ton this week, and both Marvin Jones Jr and Golden Tate should see a lot of opportunity.  Jones is closer to the cash game play as his targets have been much higher than Tate (36-24 the last three weeks) and Jones is $1,100 cheaper, and he likely has a favorable matchup if Jabrill Peppers is active for Cleveland.  All of that makes Tate an attractive tournament play, as he can easily break off a few catches and find the end zone against a woeful Browns pass defense.

Both Julio Jones and Michael Thomas are higher priced options that offer the hybrid cash-GPP value.  These two receivers are both slated for high scoring contests and have some recency bias against them with lack of touchdowns, most notably Jones’ big drop last week when he was wide open in the end zone on a long pass from Matt Ryan.  Both receivers are in good spots (Julio at home against Dallas, Thomas at Buffalo) – but the price has come down enough on Jones that he will still be highly owned.  I like both but slightly prefer Thomas with lower ownership, but both have big upside.

 

TIGHT ENDS

Name Salary Cash Rank GPP Rank Ownership Comments
Rob Gronkowski 8100 1 1 High Big price tag, but Denver cannot guard any Tes, let alone Gronkowski
Evan Engram 7400 n/a 6 Low The Giants have Engram, Sterling Shepard and pocket lint for receivers
Jack Doyle 6100 3 2 Med-Low High ownership for high targets, but Pittsburgh will look to cover him tightly
Austin Seferian-Jenkins 6000 4 3 Medium Revenge game for ASJ going overlooked?
Cameron Brate 5700 5 5 Medium No Mike Evans for Tampa Bay, but no Jameis Winston either
Kyle Rudolph 5400 2 1 Med-High It's November, so you know Rudolph is coming
Charles Clay 5400 n/a 7 Very Low Clay will go overlooked as he returns to action. For GPPs, that could be a big mistake
Eric Ebron 5300 n/a 8 Very Low Cleveland, not so good against tight ends
David Njoku 4500 n/a 9 Very Low Detroit, also not so good against tight ends

CHALK TALK: There are two types of chalk this week – high priced and middle tier.  The high priced option is just one name, and it is Rob Gronkowski.  He will be higher owned this week for a few reasons.  First, New England was just on a bye, so people will want to use him.  Second, both he and Tom Brady are in a good spot facing Denver this week, who cannot stop any caliber of tight end, let alone a Pro Bowler.  Next, there is only one name in this price range, so anyone paying up for tight ends will naturally land on Gronkowski.  Finally, New England is only on the Main Slate on FanDuel, so those playing on multiple DFS sites will want to get their share of Gronkowski mostly on FanDuel.

The other tier of tight ends exists in the $5,000-$6,000 range, where many solid options reside.  Kyle Rudolph gets a Washington team that greatly struggles against tight ends, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins is also in a solid spot against his former team (revenge) in Tampa Bay.  Jack Doyle will also be popular, even with the Steelers only having given up more than four catches to tight ends twice this year.

GPP: Tournament options are tougher this week, so it might be smarter to either pay up for Gronkowski or to eat the chalk with your favorite tight end in that $5,000-$6,000 range.  Evan Engram will likely be popular against San Francisco, as the Giants are out of viable receivers, but the 49ers started the year as the best defense against tight ends.  There is some truth to that, but also there is the fact that the 49ers have given up three touchdowns to tight ends in the last three weeks

Detroit and Cleveland are not good against tight ends either, and these two teams meet in Week 10.  That puts both Eric Ebron and rookie David Njoku in play for deep tournaments, with the slight edge going to Njoku with his bare minimum salary.

 

KICKERS

Name Salary Cash Rank GPP Rank Ownership Comments
Greg Zuerlein 5400 4 2 Medium Huge projected total points for the Rams, favors lots of late FGs
Stephen Gostkowski 5200 n/a 3 Med-High Mile high field, mile high ceiling
Matt Prater 5100 5 4 High Detroit at home in a dome against Cleveland. Can't find a better spot.
Matt Bryant 5000 n/a 7 High NOT A CASH PLAY as he is not 100% healthy
Will Lutz 4900 n/a 8 High Close game outside in Buffalo. Pass, even with hitting criteria
Ryan Succop 4800 2 5 Medium Very consistent, safe option
Chris Boswell 4800 3 6 Med-High Good kicker in a dome
Mike Nugent 4700 1 1 Med-Low Ezekiel Elliott being out means more field goal attempts in a dome

CHALK and GPP: These general kicker comments will likely be repeated week after week, but they are important so take note. Yes, FanDuel is the only DFS site left that uses a kicker, but you have to deal with it if you are playing on FanDuel. Sorry, that's how it goes. But there's some good news - you can actually make smart, informed decisions that can go a long way towards increasing your bankroll. First, there are four general criteria in picking a kicker:

  1. Pick a kicker who is playing at home
  2. Pick a kicker who is in a game where his team is favored
  3. Pick a kicker whose team is expected to score at least 24 points.
  4. Pick a kicker who will not be in bad weather.

Just following that above recipe will help you quite a bit. Remember - a 50+ yard field goal is five points or almost as much as a touchdown. That's significant.

Week 10 is not that easy, with all the kickers that meet the criteria costing $5,000 or more.  The Rams (Zuerlein), Lions (Matt Prater) and Falcons (Matt Bryant) all project for over 24 points as home favorites, with New England (at Denver) and Pittsburgh (at Indianapolis) both looking good as road favorites.  New Orleans should be in a tight game at Buffalo, but they also project for over 24 points, but I do not like taking Wil Lutz outdoors.  Pittsburgh’s Chris Boswell at $4,800 looks like a viable choice in a dome, but I think we can do a little better.

The two choices that bubble up for me is Ryan Succop (hosting Cincinnati) but the Titans only project for 22.75 points.  Still, with his consistency this year (21-23 on field goals, 16-17 on extra points) and at $4,800 he is definitely an option.  My top choice this week is Dallas’ Mike Nugent at $4,700.  With Ezekiel Elliott suspended, Dallas will likely struggle in the red zone (and even more if Dez Bryant is out), and that should give Nugent plenty of field goal chances come Sunday in a dome against Atlanta. 

 

TEAM DEFENSES

Name Salary Cash Rank GPP Rank Ownership Comments
Los Angeles Rams 5400 n/a 3 Med-High Houston, we have a problem
Detroit 5300 n/a 5 High Facing Cleveland, but will not be as easy as you might think
Jacksonville 5200 2 2 Medium "Sacksonville" has 35 sacks, 156 passing yards against and a QB rating against of only 63.5. Bring on Philip Rivers.
New England 4700 n/a 4 Medium "The Brocketship" continues to blow up
Chicago 4300 1 1 High The chalk play, but for good reason

CHALK and GPP: The Chicago Bears are just simply too cheap.  At $4,300, at home and facing a Green Bay team with a backup (and inexperienced) quarterback on a short week, the upside is there.  Throw in that Chicago is coming off of a bye week and it is nearly impossible to fade Chicago’s defense this week in cash games and conservative GPP lineups.

So where can we pivot?  Jacksonville leaps to mind as they host the Chargers.  Smart teams know better than to try and throw on the Jaguars, but that is not the category I put Philip Rivers and Los Angeles in when I categorize offenses.  Detroit hosts Cleveland on a similar turnaround to the Bears-Packers game, but the Browns are coming off of the bye week while the Lions are playing for the second time inside of a week.  I expect Detroit to win, but it could be closer than expected as Detroit is in a prime letdown spot.

Houston is a mess, which certainly puts the Rams defense at home in play for a GPP option.  The last one I would really consider this week is New England, who also comes off of a bye week.  The Patriots were a suspect defense before the week off, but it is possible that they re-schemed their defense over the two weeks off.  Couple that with Brock Osweiler still starting for Denver and New England definitely has upside.

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com